Scoring projections for Auburn - Texas A&M

[StatTiger 3,188]

Looking at FBS competition only...

The Aggies are scoring 63.2% more than their opponent allows, which is impressive to say the least. The problem is their allowing 13.9% more points than their opponent normally scores.

Auburn is currently scoring 12.5% more than their opponent allows, while their defense is holding their opponent to 31.7% below their scoring average.

Taking A&M's average score vs. Auburn's scoring margins and it projects a 37-30 Auburn victory.

Taking Auburn's average score vs. the Aggies scoring margins and it projects a 36-33 Aggie win.

Average the scores and Auburn wins 35-33.

Based on FBS averages and current yardage margins, it projects Auburn to have 504-537 yards this Saturday and for Texas A&M to have 554-655 yards.

Two concerns for Auburn, they need to avoid is a slow start and turnovers. The yardage percentages and margins project the Tigers to rush for 297-341-yards. If this is the case and Auburn wins the turnover battle, I see the Tigers coming out victorious.

[SuperNova 0]

No turnovers will be necessary, hopefully we can cause TAM to lose the ball to help with our odds.

Looks like a shootout any way you look at it.

[StatTiger 3,188]

No turnovers will be necessary, hopefully we can cause TAM to lose the ball to help with our odds.

Looks like a shootout any way you look at it.

No doubt. If A&M has 650-yards, they likely win.

[BornAU76 398]

Great stuff, Stat! I like the margin comparison you did, I think it's very telling to the type of teams playing on Saturday.

We have to keep their yards down and keep JF off the field to win this game. As stated, that requires us to keep the ball in our hands (no turnovers!!) and to effectively move the ball. A Defensive TD would help as well...maybe JF can help us out in that regard.

[rbrigby 0]

I like the way you think Stat, very good stuff! On to Victory, Strike up the Band! WDE

[eibua12 81]

No turnovers will be necessary, hopefully we can cause TAM to lose the ball to help with our odds.

Looks like a shootout any way you look at it.

No doubt. If A&M has 650-yards, they likely win.

True, If Auburn has anywhere over 200 yards rushing not sure there will be enough TOP for TAMU to get over 400 yards on O. (well unless Gus goes all out and in that case this might be a 5 hour game)

[auburnpride99 6]

I've got a good feeling about this weekend. I'm really excited to see our D line coming hard after JM. I really think we are going to knock the snot out of the kid. I'm seeing 3-4 A&M turnovers. WDE!

[AU! 0]

Stat, do we have any data on red zone offense and defense for both teams? Auburn is efficient in the RZ, how good is aTm? How good is Auburn's RZ defense?

[WarEagle84 0]

.... The yardage percentages and margins project the Tigers to rush for 297-341-yards. If this is the case and Auburn wins the turnover battle, I see the Tigers coming out victorious.

I like the math:

300 rushing yards + 0 turnovers = 1 Auburn victory

[AuburnMisfit 0]

Isn't Auburn on a long winning streak when scoring 30+ points?

[CJBas 4]

Thanks for those objective numbers. I'm sure we all know what a HUGE boost it would be for our program to win this one Saturday.

One thing I think is clear though; just showing up and playing a good game does not hain our team any respect at all. But winning would gaim them a lot.

[CJBas 4]

Isn't Auburn on a long winning streak when scoring 30+ points?

Yes. 80 something games I think. But a lot of people are saying that could com to an end this week.

[AuburnMisfit 0]

Isn't Auburn on a long winning streak when scoring 30+ points?

Yes. 80 something games I think. But a lot of people are saying that could com to an end this week.

Blasphemy!

[CJBas 4]

Isn't Auburn on a long winning streak when scoring 30+ points?

Yes. 80 something games I think. But a lot of people are saying that could com to an end this week.

Blasphemy!

The more I read here the more I'm getting my hopes up. Perhaps an advantage for us; a win for Auburn would mean a great deal for our program but a win for A&M would simply be expected.

[HAYinthemiddleoftheBARN 204]

Expect this - The 12th man will be huge because they fear an upset at home. They know AU is NOT the team from last year. 5-1 meets 5-1. Ranked home team vs. ranked visiting team on the rise. CBS - like 'em or not- is huge. AU victory will be huge compared to ATM victory. This game is AU's to win, Johnny football's to lose, & Auburn's to prove a serious threat to the rest of the schedule. A loss by 3 or less will still hurt as bad as losing by 12.5(according to Vegas). A win in College Station will be... you guessed it, HUGE! Go get 'em boyz! Pull off that upset in Texas! Leave all you have out there on the field! Use every bit of talent you have & every bit of brains to remember what the coaches have taught you! Remember your assignments & BUST'em in the mouth!!! Bring back the biggest W in 2 years!!!! YES AUBURN WINS YES AUBURN WINS 41 to 34 !!!!!

[TIGGR82 4]

Im gonna throw my pick in hopefully

Auburn 45

TAMU 31

More likely

Auburn 35

TAMU 38

[WarTim 3,456]

Thanks Stat. Great work and insight per your usual. WDE ! ! !

[IndianTiger 95]

Thanks for the data..

The cliches will ring true again this week..turnovers and penalties. We are doing quite well not getting penalized much. Manziel does throw the ball up for grabs sometimes, so if our defense can get turnovers, that will be huge.

We are averaging 6.3 y/rush and they are giving up 5.7 yards/rush (bottom of the SEC). I like our chances.

45-35 and we come out winning.

[AUenginerd 16]

No turnovers will be necessary, hopefully we can cause TAM to lose the ball to help with our odds.

Looks like a shootout any way you look at it.

No doubt. If A&M has 650-yards, they likely win.

Great post, Stat. Can you break down that 650 by A&M into pass and rush yards? Their passing game scares me but our secondary is a strength too. Either way, thanks for the analysis, and WDE!

[Rootin'FromArkansas 0]

I'll be blown away if the final ends up an AU victory of 35-33.

Looking at FBS competition only...

The Aggies are scoring 63.2% more than their opponent allows, which is impressive to say the least. The problem is their allowing 13.9% more points than their opponent normally scores.

Auburn is currently scoring 12.5% more than their opponent allows, while their defense is holding their opponent to 31.7% below their scoring average.

Taking A&M's average score vs. Auburn's scoring margins and it projects a 37-30 Auburn victory.

Taking Auburn's average score vs. the Aggies scoring margins and it projects a 36-33 Aggie win.

Average the scores and Auburn wins 35-33.

Based on FBS averages and current yardage margins, it projects Auburn to have 504-537 yards this Saturday and for Texas A&M to have 554-655 yards.

Two concerns for Auburn, they need to avoid is a slow start and turnovers. The yardage percentages and margins project the Tigers to rush for 297-341-yards. If this is the case and Auburn wins the turnover battle, I see the Tigers coming out victorious.

[bigbird 60,532]

US: 38

them: 35

[AUpreacherman22 3,887]

I hope this is the week Johnny Hancock loses his late game magic.

We're up 34-31. They have the ball late and driving. Game ends with a Int. AU WINS!

[bikeriderga 134]

I can easily see a 1 to 3 point game or if we make key mistakes, a blowout. I see it as the former, rather than the latter.

The absolute key to us winning is to keep their offense off the field. We cannot allow a score for score like game, but this is the way every team has had to play A&M. That is not the kind of game we do well in.

Auburn can score and score quickly, but for the most part, we score big in the first quarter, a little more in the second quarter and in the third and fourth quarters, we score occasionally. Any three and outs will kill us in this game. A&M does not have many three and outs. When their offense gets the ball, barring a turnover, they score.

Our offense has to be able to make the third down plays. We have to control the ball and time of possession. The mid to long passing game should be reserved for only if we get behind. If we are down more than 7 points in this game at any given time, our chances for a win are greatly diminished. If A&M gets a 14 point lead, we are pretty much done, without some key turnovers.

We have to score out of the gate with long sustained drives running the football. Occasional short passes to keep drives alive will be key as well. We can go deep in the beginning to get up and ahead, but our main objective has to be controlling the clock and time of possession.

Defensively, we have to get pressure on Manziel, even though not many people are going to be able to stop him. If we wear him out however, constantly causing him to have to run for his life, we can affect his timing and fatigue will set in. That is the key on defense; that and take aways.

If we can keep it within 7 points throughout the game until the fourth quarter, I like our chances. If we can be ahead in the final two minutes and not allow A&M's OFFENSE back onto the field, I believe we walk out with a win. Even if we are ahead by 10 in the final three minutes and do the three and out thing, we will lose. Manziel does not need a quarter to beat you, he needs two minutes to make two touchdowns.

Here's hoping we have our best game of the year and finally, a complete effort on both sides of the ball. If we do that, coupled with our special team's play, we will be 6-1 and tied for #2 in the SEC West.

[AUfanLCDR 0]

We definetly need to keep our turnovers down. On the other side, since Nosa Egaue was moved from end to tackle it seems we are getting better penetration and sacks. I hope this keeps up for this game and that all our players hit their peak in individual performance. I'm even hoping for us to pull a huge upset in the score also - not just a win but a BIG win!

[bwillaub 0]

38-35 Either way.