QB Completion Improvements for freshman QBs with Stats

[AUTIGERinSC 69]

I've always big a big proponent of experience. Some guys are born with natural ability to win from day 1, but most of us need to get our feet wet to get better and improve. Its no different with QBs in my opinion.

So I decided to take a look at some QBs improvements after their first year to see what is expected.

Looking at approximately 40 qbs that I could easily find stats on, 90% of the time, there was alway improvement from their Year 1 to their following years. Sometimes its a remarkable change (Dennis Dixon and Blake Mitchell). I made an effort to grab some Elite 11 QBs for good measure. Obviously i couldn't get data on Elite 11 QBs who never panned out.

Regardless of how you look at, there's a large chance that Sean White will improve this year. We shouldn't shouldn't discount that first year of experience as a major indicator of getting better. We all need to take a deep breath and let him mature some more so we can reap the benefits. He has to the tools, and now he needs the time.

Name	Year 1 Completion %	Best Year Completion %	Improvement	Elite 11
Dennis Dixon	40.1	67.7	27.6	*
Blake Mitchell	40.9	66.8	25.9	*
Kliff Klingsbury	43.9	69	25.1
Casey Paus	43.5	66.7	23.2	*
Drew Brews	44.2	63.4	19.2
Phillip Rivers	53.7	72	18.3
Trent Edwards	45.3	62.7	17.4	*
Denard Robinson	45.2	62.5	17.3
JaMarcus Russell	50.7	67.8	17.1	*
Tajh Boyd	52.4	68.5	16.1
Chase Daniel	57.6	72.9	15.3	*
Brady Quinn	47.3	61.9	14.6
Derek Anderson	41.5	54.2	12.7	*
RGIII	59.9	72.4	12.5
Tyler Palko	56.2	68.3	12.1	*
Jonathan Crompton	47	58.3	11.3	*
Kyle Orten	49.5	60.7	11.2	*
Brodie Croyle	48.8	59.6	10.8	*
Ty Detmer	54.2	64.3	10.1
Chad Pennington	58.4	67.9	9.5
Carson Palmer	55.3	63.2	7.9
Antwaan Randle El	46.5	53.8	7.3
Bobby Reid	48.1	55.4	7.3	*
Jason Campbell	62.7	69.6	6.9
Kellen Clemens	57.5	64	6.5	*
Vince Young	58.7	65.2	6.5	*
Kirby Freeman	48.4	54.6	6.2	*
Mark Sanchez	60.5	65.8	5.3	*
Kelen Moore	69.4	74.3	4.9
Chris Leak	59.4	63.6	4.2	*
Aaron Murray	61.1	64.8	3.7
Drew Stanton	64.1	66.7	2.6	*
Colt McCoy	68.2	70.6	2.4
Matt Lienhart	63.4	65.7	2.3	*
Andre Woodson	61.4	63.1	1.7	*
Marcus Mariota	68.5	68.5	0
Nate Longshore	60.2	60.2	0	*
John David Booty	64.3	64.3	0	*
AVERAGE	54.15789474	64.76315789	10.60526316

[oracle79 3,569]

But why not look at year 1 vs year 2 instead of "best year"?

I'm assuming there is a reason the term "sophomore slump" came to be.

But, SW had a rough 1st year, so I do expect him to improve on that this year.

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,297]

The coaching SHOULD improve with time as well- I.e. strengths are enhanced, weaknesses are hidden.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Love the OP! Thanks for putting that together.

Somebody will come in and say you're making excuses, though, and probably mention that in 100+ years of college football there have been a handful of really successful freshman QBs, so Sean should've been successful, too. (Doesn't matter what their rosters looked like, or their schedule, or whether or not they were injured, etc.) So be prepared for that. 

[WDEKC 187]

I think completion percentage in freshman year is not exactly a great stat to use. Many QBs didn't have very large sample sizes as freshmen so it's hard to get accurate information to really determine anything. For instance Drew Brees had a completion percentage of 44%, but only had 43 pass attempts. Dennis Dixon only had 15 pass attempts.

Jeremy Johnson as a freshman had a completion percentage of 70% on 41 pass attempts.

 

It would probably be much more useful to use a QBs first year starting and compare their stats from year to year as they became more experienced as a starter.

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Thanks. That's an ambitious conversation. The QB does not operate in a vacuum. How similar or different were relevant factors in those seasons? Injuries? Transfers? Other players improved? Different OC? Drops? etc etc

[WDEKC 187]

7 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Thanks. That's an ambitious conversation. The QB does not operate in a vacuum. How similar or different were relevant factors in those seasons? Injuries? Transfers? Other players improved? Different OC? Drops? etc etc

Or in many cases playing with 2nd and 3rd stringers because they are just getting garbage playing time.

[SumterAubie 3,031]

This means nothing. White threw two interceptions against Memphis, is slow of foot, makes bad decisions, and played his best last year against crap SEC teams. 

[bigbird 60,512]

I also heard he kicks kittens

[augolf1716 21,109]

4 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Love the OP! Thanks for putting that together.

Somebody will come in and say you're making excuses, though, and probably mention that in 100+ years of college football there have been a handful of really successful freshman QBs, so Sean should've been successful, too. (Doesn't matter what their rosters looked like, or their schedule, or whether or not they were injured, etc.) So be prepared for that. 

no way not any of our members

[JMassie11 1,610]

How dare someone actual post stats on this board. Such a disgrace. Everyone should know by now that White is the worse QB to ever step foot on campus. He's slow and it's his fault the WRs dropped passes. You should know also be that bc of White playing QB the defense will give up 300 yards rushing per game and the offense will never score any points. You should know this by now if you would have read the posts on this board. I'm just at a loss for words.

[cole256 17,050]

@Barnacle, you see??

[aujeff11 6,243]

16 minutes ago, JMassie11 said:

How dare someone actual post stats on this board. Such a disgrace. Everyone should know by now that White is the worse QB to ever step foot on campus. He's slow and it's his fault the WRs dropped passes. You should know also be that bc of White playing QB the defense will give up 300 yards rushing per game and the offense will never score any points. You should know this by now if you would have read the posts on this board. I'm just at a loss for words.

Don't know if this your poor attempt of wit or what, but exaggerating and distorting the opposition's claims just to make a now worthless point is frowned upon by the knowledgable ones that are arguing cases on both sides. 

[JMassie11 1,610]

1 minute ago, aujeff11 said:

Don't know if this your poor attempt of wit or what, but exaggerating and distorting the opposition's claims just to make a now worthless point is frowned upon by the knowledgable ones that are arguing cases on both sides. 

How did I know you would chime in with your uncanny charm and unmatched knowledge of all is football.

[aujeff11 6,243]

3 minutes ago, JMassie11 said:

How did I know you would chime in with your uncanny charm and unmatched knowledge of all is football.

Because a broken clock is at least right twice a day? 

[Barnacle 9,064]

4 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Love the OP! Thanks for putting that together.

Somebody will come in and say you're making excuses, though, and probably mention that in 100+ years of college football there have been a handful of really successful freshman QBs, so Sean should've been successful, too. (Doesn't matter what their rosters looked like, or their schedule, or whether or not they were injured, etc.) So be prepared for that. 

God bless America. Chum in the water. 

[Auburn2Eugene 2,317]

Good stuff. There are some notable absences from the elite 11. If memory serves me Brady Quinn was a top recruit (top 10 QB) coming out of high school, Carson Palmer, as well as Aaron Murray. Wow. 

Either way, thanks for the post. Hope we can see this kind of improvement from Sean.

[Barnacle 9,064]

29 minutes ago, cole256 said:

@Barnacle, you see??

Oh yeah, I see it. 

[augolf1716 21,109]

Thanks for puting that together  SC

        

 

[DAG 33,980]

He can and should improve from year to year. Furthermore, the expectation should be for improvement. Whether it would be a stark improvement like these guys remains to be seen. One can only hope.

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 hour ago, Barnacle said:

God bless America. Chum in the water. 

Yeah, I kinda begged for whatever happens next. 

[cole256 17,050]

I'm glad you did it, I was able to show my entire point in one thread without arguing with anybody. 

[WDEKC 187]

So nobody else to time to look a little deeper into these completion stats?

[logan adams 333]

8 hours ago, SumterAubie said:

This means nothing. White threw two interceptions against Memphis, is slow of foot, makes bad decisions, and played his best last year against crap SEC teams. 

yup

[IndianTiger 95]

Thanks for putting it together. Looking forward to improvements. We had way too much drama last year. 

Drew Brees and Marcus Mariotta stats look quite interesting to me