QB Completion Improvements for freshman QBs with Stats

[80Tiger 899]

Just not sure what ties this group of 40 to SW or any other 2nd year QB. I am guessing that you want this info to be an indicator that a 2nd year QB will improve their completion %. Why these 40 for comparison? Are you looking at a certain time frame? Playing in certain type offenses or had similar type circumstances? Unless you weighted your averages, a guy that threw 5 passes and completed 2 can skew your avg. I like the idea of the elite 11 comparison. That ties to SW. If you compared the last 40 elite 11 guys or maybe the last winners of the elite 11. , then you would have something that would connect your sample group to SW. 

With that said his experience should count for something and his % should improve.  It was 54 or 55 last year. Not bad but I would think we should see high 50's . Anything over 60 would be real nice.

[aujeff11 6,243]

15 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Just not sure what ties this group of 40 to SW or any other 2nd year QB. I am guessing that you want this info to be an indicator that a 2nd year QB will improve their completion %. Why these 40 for comparison? Are you looking at a certain time frame? Playing in certain type offenses or had similar type circumstances? Unless you weighted your averages, a guy that threw 5 passes and completed 2 can skew your avg. I like the idea of the elite 11 comparison. That ties to SW. If you compared the last 40 elite 11 guys or maybe the last winners of the elite 11. , then you would have something that would connect your sample group to SW. 

With that said his experience should count for something and his % should improve.  It was 54 or 55 last year. Not bad but I would think we should see high 50's . Anything over 60 would be real nice.

Overall I didn't learn much about SW from the list. There are so many variables that goes into this list that it would take a while before I could pick it apart. The broad purpose of this is to show that SW will improve from his first year. I'm not sure that completion percentage should be the measure that we focus on though. Jeremy Johnson had a high completion percentage after all. He's had a decent one ever since he got here as a TF. If we throw three quick outs and then a deep ball, that's an easy chance to at least reach 75% for the drive. That's seldom the case in pro offenses. 

[80Tiger 899]

19 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Overall I didn't learn much about SW from the list. There are so many variables that goes into this list that it would take a while before I could pick it apart. The broad purpose of this is to show that SW will improve from his first year. I'm not sure that completion percentage should be the measure that we focus on though. Jeremy Johnson had a high completion percentage after all. He's had a decent one ever since he got here as a TF. If we throw three quick outs and then a deep ball, that's an easy chance to at least reach 75% for the drive. That's seldom the case in pro offenses. 

Correct. It is nice to look at but means nothing to SW or any other QB. You can probably find a list of 40 guys whose % went down their second or next year. That would mean nothing to SW also. I think we are saying the same thing, it is not any type of indicator. That is not being a hater. SW may complete 65% . I would much rather us be talking about the 30  TD he throws.

[WDEKC 187]

9 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Correct. It is nice to look at but means nothing to SW or any other QB. You can probably find a list of 40 guys whose % went down their second or next year. That would mean nothing to SW also. I think we are saying the same thing, it is not any type of indicator. That is not being a hater. SW may complete 65% . I would much rather us be talking about the 30  TD he throws.

Phew, glad some others have some better critical thinking skills.

 

I liked the potential I saw from SW last year and really hope he can be successful at Auburn, but these random completion percentages don't really tell us anything.

[80Tiger 899]

5 minutes ago, WDEKC said:

Phew, glad some others have some better critical thinking skills.

 

I liked the potential I saw from SW last year and really hope he can be successful at Auburn, but these random completion percentages don't really tell us anything.

I am no genius and was a pretty avg student at AU a long time ago, but I did make an A in statistics and it made sense to me. Numbers can mean something and can be manipulated. As an old business guy told me once "figures don't lie but liars due figure". Not calling the OP a liar btw. 

[cole256 17,084]

Que the finally someone has come with "real" facts guy. Numbers!!!!

[johnnyAU 3,634]

I don't think the poster was saying SW would definitely increase in % because of the list. He's just pointing out the error in thinking that he cannot improve dramatically from one year to the next. It doesn't mean he will.  Lots of factors involved.

[cole256 17,084]

I don't think anybody, at least anybody with any sense, would say there should be a jump from one year to another after some experience. Never seen anybody try to argue that.

What I do see is people trying to discredit others who didn't agree with them. The very same people that would say I'm tired of the bickering and all that stuff. When it's really agree with me or your thoughts are stupid and I'll make fun of them. 

 

[aujeff11 6,243]

1 minute ago, johnnyAU said:

I don't think Stat was saying SW would increase in % because of the list. He's just pointing out the error in thinking that he cannot improve dramatically from one year to the next. It doesn't mean he will.  Lots of factors involved.

I honestly can't think of one post from any of the "haters"  that said or implied that SW cannot improve.

The OP doesn't even show the improvement from the first year to the next year, it shows the improvement from the first year to the best year. Jason Campbell's best year was his senior year. 

Like you said though, lot of factors are involved. I can imagine SW next year will have even better stats with the same receivers just wiser and stronger.

[mustache eagle 2,410]

Another devolving thread ...

the OP was not propping up SW.  Re-read the OP.  He simply found 40 qbs with easy to find stats and showed they get better after their first season.  Call him a sunshine pumper that SW will get better ... But to claim the post is anything more than that is a stretch.

[cole256 17,084]

Who said the op was propping up sw? At most some people said maybe not the best parameters to draw a conclusion?

[bigbird 60,573]

Per Stats...

Nine of the last 10 Auburn QB's to start at least 2 seasons in a row, improved their QBR the following season.

[cole256 17,084]

I just don't even see why that's something that people think needs to be proven? Did anybody argue against this thought? I think even jj would be better. Might be bad to a little less bad but of course you should get better. Hell sw could better his td stats in one freaking game

[oracle79 3,569]

7 hours ago, bigbird said:

Per Stats...

Nine of the last 10 Auburn QB's to start at least 2 seasons in a row, improved their QBR the following season.

Is that starting the season as a starter (which would exclude SW) or starting at any point during the season and then starting next year?  Out of curiosity, who was the one QB who didn't improve from that 9 of 10?  Curious as to why they wouldn't improve after a year of starting, unless they just tore it up their 1st year?

[bigbird 60,573]

3 hours ago, oracle79 said:

Is that starting the season as a starter (which would exclude SW) or starting at any point during the season and then starting next year?  Out of curiosity, who was the one QB who didn't improve from that 9 of 10?  Curious as to why they wouldn't improve after a year of starting, unless they just tore it up their 1st year?

Stan white.

[oracle79 3,569]

17 hours ago, bigbird said:

Stan white.

He had a weird career for a 4 year starter.  Downhill for 3 years and then a huge improvement his senior year.

 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*1990	Auburn	SEC		QB	12	180	338	53.3	2242	6.6	5.6	14	14	114.4
1991	Auburn	SEC		QB	11	158	317	49.8	1927	6.1	4.6	8	14	100.4
1992	Auburn	SEC		QB	11	157	305	51.5	1790	5.9	3.8	5	16	95.7
1993	Auburn	SEC		QB	11	164	271	60.5	2057	7.6	7.2	13	8	134.2
Career	Auburn					659	1231	53.5	8016	6.5	5.3	40	52	110.5

*Including Bowl Game stats

[aubiefifty 16,824]

sean white reminds me so much of jeff burger. he has that mean streak this year according to his teammates and he reminds me of a gunslinger type qb. give him a little time and let him stay healthy and i believe the young man is gonna make us...well most of us..... smile.

[AUsince72 11,084]

4 hours ago, oracle79 said:

He had a weird career for a 4 year starter.  Downhill for 3 years and then a huge improvement his senior year.

 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*1990	Auburn	SEC		QB	12	180	338	53.3	2242	6.6	5.6	14	14	114.4
1991	Auburn	SEC		QB	11	158	317	49.8	1927	6.1	4.6	8	14	100.4
1992	Auburn	SEC		QB	11	157	305	51.5	1790	5.9	3.8	5	16	95.7
1993	Auburn	SEC		QB	11	164	271	60.5	2057	7.6	7.2	13	8	134.2
Career	Auburn					659	1231	53.5	8016	6.5	5.3	40	52	110.5

*Including Bowl Game stats

That was just "bad timing" if you recall.... 91 & 92 were dark days for AU football as a whole.

[AUsince72 11,084]

2 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

sean white reminds me so much of jeff burger. he has that mean streak this year according to his teammates and he reminds me of a gunslinger type qb. give him a little time and let him stay healthy and i believe the young man is gonna make us...well most of us..... smile.

Personally, I have every confidence in SW and the players around him.  If health doesn't become too much of an issue, the success or lack thereof lies on the coaches putting together the proper style of play (gameplan, play calling) to use his skill set to the fullest.

[aubiefifty 16,824]

hey 72 i hope you guys still have that ball........what an awesome collectable..........

[AUsince72 11,084]

20 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

hey 72 i hope you guys still have that ball........what an awesome collectable..........

Unfortunately, we never got the ball itself but it was a great (if a little expensive for my Dad) memory.  

I can't remember if it was his sophomore or junior year but I was roughly 11-12 years old and I grew up not very far from Athens so when my Dad finds out AU is playing thUga one weekend he takes us over there for a game.  This is before college baseball is really a "hit" as it is today and back in the 80's, Georgia's baseball stadium wasn't much nicer than your average pony league field.

Well, he parks out beyond left field literally saying "this should be far enough out that nobody can hit the car".....  Then comes Bo.  He cracks it out 400'-ish and it's RIGHT where we parked.  We didn't actually see it hit from where we were sitting but we did see it bounce and when we get to the car, after the game, the hood had a big dent in it with the white "stuff" off of the baseball (where the ball scuffed).  Dad wasn't very happy but I thought it was AWESOME!! 

Extra little note...  the way the stadium was back then, after the game the away players literally just walked out of a gate down the left field line and mingled with the fans, on their way to the buses (they didn't appear to have locker rooms back then) so I actually crossed paths with Bo and gave him, and the surrounding "other" players, a War Eagle and he patted me on the shoulder and said "thank you for coming, War Eagle to you".

Thus is my brush with greatness.  So no collectible but one HECKUVA memory!!

[augolf1716 21,230]

26 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Unfortunately, we never got the ball itself but it was a great (if a little expensive for my Dad) memory.  

I can't remember if it was his sophomore or junior year but I was roughly 11-12 years old and I grew up not very far from Athens so when my Dad finds out AU is playing thUga one weekend he takes us over there for a game.  This is before college baseball is really a "hit" as it is today and back in the 80's, Georgia's baseball stadium wasn't much nicer than your average pony league field.

Well, he parks out beyond left field literally saying "this should be far enough out that nobody can hit the car".....  Then comes Bo.  He cracks it out 400'-ish and it's RIGHT where we parked.  We didn't actually see it hit from where we were sitting but we did see it bounce and when we get to the car, after the game, the hood had a big dent in it with the white "stuff" off of the baseball (where the ball scuffed).  Dad wasn't very happy but I thought it was AWESOME!! 

Extra little note...  the way the stadium was back then, after the game the away players literally just walked out of a gate down the left field line and mingled with the fans, on their way to the buses (they didn't appear to have locker rooms back then) so I actually crossed paths with Bo and gave him, and the surrounding "other" players, a War Eagle and he patted me on the shoulder and said "thank you for coming, War Eagle to you".

Thus is my brush with greatness.  So no collectible but one HECKUVA memory!!

Great story

[McLoofus 35,182]

37 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Dad wasn't very happy but I thought it was AWESOME!! 

Boyhood explained.

Agree with golf, great story.