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StatTiger

Down year for the SEC

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StatTiger    552

From 1960-2015, the SEC produced an average of 3.6 teams with a win percentage of at least .700. The 2016 season will mark the first time the SEC produced only 1 team with a win percentage of at least .700 (Alabama).

Since the league expanded to 12 teams in 1992, the fewest number of teams with a win pct of .700 was two. It happened in 2000, 2002 and 2009.

From 1960-2016, there have been eleven seasons with at least 5 teams with a win pct of .700 or better.

There have been only two seasons with six teams, which is the most. It happened in 1971 and 2012.

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Charhair    338

The thing that confuses me about a "down year" is that if it were a down year wouldn't it have been easier for teams like A&M, us, and LSU to post better records? Instead the SEC seemed to beat up on itself. 

IMO you can take that as the SEC was down and no one was good enough to break away or that everyone was so good that Bama was the only one able to squeak away.

It seems hard to tell whether a conference was really up or down until bowl games.

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WeagleAU    299

The SEC as a whole had an out of conference record of 38-13.  However, the majority of those teams were cupcakes.  Don't know if that really makes the SEC look any better.  I believe the SEC was subpar this year.  Definitely not the pinnacle league this year.

Anyways, it will be interesting to see the SEC's bowl record.  

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aubaseball    143

I think you could take the first week of the season and say that the SEC was not going to be very strong.  Winners during the first week: Alabama, A&M, Arkansas, Florida, GA and Tenn.  Alabama killed USC , GA beat UNC and FLA played a cupcake game.  It took overtime for Tenn to beat App State and A&M to beat UCLA.   Arkansas beat La. Tech by 1.  USC played Vandy first game and won.   Losers were: LSU, Auburn, KY, Mizzu, Ole Miss and Miss. St.   LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss all played good teams.  KY lost to USM, Mizzu lost to WVU and Miss. St. lost to South Alabama.

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murpjf88    28

Down year for the second season in a row.  Look at the marquee out of conference games and bowl games as your indicators, not how competitive the teams are within conference play. Florida probably losses 4-5 regular season games if they were playing the Big 10.

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GwillMac6    1,889

Lets just be real about it for a second. Sabans dominance is hurting the conference. look at all the good coaches he ran out.

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oracle79    674

I don't think you can tell until you look at record vs. OOC Power 5 teams at the end of the year including bowl season.  It could be that the Vandy's and Kentucky's improved enough to win a few more SEC games.  Maybe fewer really bad teams in conference and fewer outstanding teams.  But yeah, felt like it was down for most SEC teams this year.

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Man this league is gonna have some QB talent on the field next season! Take a look at every teams likely starter next season. Stidham, Hurts, Shurmer, Patterson, Eason, Bentley, Fitzgerald, and Allen. Who else? The UK QB is young and looked good, Mizzou QB improved all season and is young. Is the question marks only at UF and LSU? It sure looks that way imo. Shurmer is gonna win alot of games at Vandy, kid can sling it.

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aucanucktiger    202

Although the SEC East was even more mediocre than usual, the SEC West had more parity. LSU, Auburn and aTm just beat each other up. We more than held our own against a playoff Clemson team despite our offensive game plan being a train wreck. Anybody here like to have played Ohio State the weekend we met Arky?

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10 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

Lets just be real about it for a second. Sabans dominance is hurting the conference. look at all the good coaches he ran out.

Ok, let's look at Sabans division: the West. What good coach did he run off?  Miles?  Nope. He got run off for incompetence. He had a good overall record but much like Gus has lost so many people based on his ridiculous decisions, so did Les. Neither have anything to do with Saban. Other than Miles, who?  aTm still has the same coach they entered the league with, Auburn fired a coach for losing a teams discipline and therefore losing the team on the field (zero to do with Saban), the Mississppi schools have actually been better than they used to be and Arky has been about the same, all 3 of which have had the same coaches for a while now. 

Surely not Richt, never played bama. Surely not Spurrier, never played bama. Urban?  Who kno s his real reason, but I doubt he left just because he might have to play bama in the SEC championship game. So then, who else?  I'm at a loss for a single coach that has been run off by Saban. 

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GwillMac6    1,889
6 hours ago, FoundationEagle said:

Ok, let's look at Sabans division: the West. What good coach did he run off?  Miles?  Nope. He got run off for incompetence. He had a good overall record but much like Gus has lost so many people based on his ridiculous decisions, so did Les. Neither have anything to do with Saban. Other than Miles, who?  aTm still has the same coach they entered the league with, Auburn fired a coach for losing a teams discipline and therefore losing the team on the field (zero to do with Saban), the Mississppi schools have actually been better than they used to be and Arky has been about the same, all 3 of which have had the same coaches for a while now. 

Surely not Richt, never played bama. Surely not Spurrier, never played bama. Urban?  Who kno s his real reason, but I doubt he left just because he might have to play bama in the SEC championship game. So then, who else?  I'm at a loss for a single coach that has been run off by Saban. 

I can make a argument he ran all those guys off for the standards he has raised for every sec school and the expectations. Its bama though I won't go to bat for them. You have your opinion I have mine.

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OnthePlains    226

Seems to me that its mostly offense that is down in the SEC.  Several teams struggled at one time or another offensively and with QB play.  It goes through cycles.  The SEC couldn't be dominate every single year.  Sooner or later the other conferences had to catch up some.  That being said more than likely the national champ will come from the SEC once again. 

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msza    71

Yeah, the SEC is down a bit this year, but, speaking objectively, it's about time. You should always assume a regression to the mean. The surprise is that it took this long.

No matter which player/team/conference is 'up' one year, the safest assumption is that they will regress toward the pack the next year. That's why it's so rare to see yearly contracts -- the admin wants time to see a regression to the mean after a stellar season. Hence yearly bonuses, which work to the advantage of the contractor.

No team in the history of college football has managed to maintain a win percentage equal to a 9-3 year. Think about that for a second, especially if we end up 9-4 this year. Any better and we'd be at a level of success year-in and year-out has proven to be unsustainable for anybody. 

EDIT: my math was a little off.

Edited by msza
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DyeCampAlum    80

I made a chart of significant out of conference wins and losses. The gap isn't huge, but there's no question the B1G had a better season than the SEC. Even with four B1G teams who all would have finished #15 in the SEC.

Ain't it all about coaching? Right now, things haven't solidified at LSU, Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina. Even A&M and Auburn had hot seat moments this year. There's some very fine coaching going on at Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and even Indiana. I expect Illinois will get better.

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The B10 seems leaps and bounds better than the SEC currently. maybe the overall better talent level will neutralize the coaching difference at some point ( I doubt it). Nebraska was a fraud but they would be like 4th or 5th in our conference, and probably would still a game against AU & LSU with the inconsistency for both of those programs

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PoetTiger    244

He played Richt twice ...beat the crap out of him both times...but it's his championship success that has raised the bar and the expectations for all the other SEC schools.

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lionheartkc    3,804
13 hours ago, PoetTiger said:

He played Richt twice ...beat the crap out of him both times...but it's his championship success that has raised the bar and the expectations for all the other SEC schools.

This... Richt and Miles would still be employed if it weren't for Saban's streak.  He's made big donors with limited capability to be reasoned with have unrealistic expectations. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that dealing with his crap added to Spurrier's decision to bail as well. The people who are driving SEC football from behind their checkbooks are like the bear with an armload of fish, who drop them all to get the one they don't have. Unfortunately for them and the schools who have to deal with them, they will never have the bama machine that can drive this level of success... it take decades to build and lots of behind the scenes connections with the right people who can keep the program from getting blown up by the NCAA, push positive stories in the media... or negative stories about rivals, and make sure that they get an advantage wherever possible.

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Tiger    1,411
On 12/11/2016 at 8:21 PM, GwillMac6 said:

Lets just be real about it for a second. Sabans dominance is hurting the conference. look at all the good coaches he ran out.

Yep. And the SEC is going to be hurting down the road because of these schools pushing guys out after showing they can reach 10 wins/season regularly. Replace them with guys like bowl cut Kirby and interim coach Orgeron and the strength of the conference takes a huge it. 

Without rock star coaches recruiting will also most likely take a significant hit as well. Last year probably marked the beginning of the end of the SEC being the undisputed toughest conference. I think in the next 4 years we will see a semi-slow decline. Pair the star coaches being forced out with mediocre seasons and there's a chance that multiple teams get stuck in post-Fulmer Tennessee like cycles.

Edited by Tiger

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keesler    771
32 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Yep. And the SEC is going to be hurting down the road because of these schools pushing guys out after showing they can reach 10 wins/season regularly. Replace them with guys like bowl cut Kirby and interim coach Orgeron and the strength of the conference takes a huge it. 

Without rock star coaches recruiting will also most likely take a significant hit as well. Last year probably marked the beginning of the end of the SEC being the undisputed toughest conference. I think in the next 4 years we will see a semi-slow decline. Pair the star coaches being forced out with mediocre seasons and there's a chance that multiple teams get stuck in post-Fulmer Tennessee like cycles.

Well folks have said for years that football runs in cycles and we are seeing that with the exception of NS & uat, the overall coaching in the SEC is mediocre now and the top level recruiting we all enjoyed will level off with time.  (LSU's recruiting is taking a beating lately)

Saban & Malzhan are the two winningest coaches in the SEC right now.  That's got to gripe the rest of the conference to know that the state of Alabama has ruled them for so long.

 

 

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AU64    1,720
6 hours ago, keesler said:

Well folks have said for years that football runs in cycles and we are seeing that with the exception of NS & uat, the overall coaching in the SEC is mediocre now and the top level recruiting we all enjoyed will level off with time.  (LSU's recruiting is taking a beating lately)

Saban & Malzhan are the two winningest coaches in the SEC right now.  That's got to gripe the rest of the conference to know that the state of Alabama has ruled them for so long.

 

 

Interesting too that the President of U of Houston noted that not winning at least 10 games there would get a coach fired....and saying this a few days after the school hired it's new coach.   Some people thought it might have been a joke.....but likely not. 

I did pretty well in math subjects while at AU and despite that, can't figure how even half the schools in a major or group of 5 conference can win 10 games a year....year in and year out...but that seems to be the expectation of fans for about half of those schools.   

Looking to me that the coaching carousel is going to be turning even faster in years to come as salaries go up and expectations go up even faster.

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mickeyspano    9
On 12/11/2016 at 8:18 PM, murpjf88 said:

Down year for the second season in a row.  Look at the marquee out of conference games and bowl games as your indicators, not how competitive the teams are within conference play. Florida probably losses 4-5 regular season games if they were playing the Big 10..

This I agree with. I don't believe conference games or cupcake games tell us much about overall strength of the conference.

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aucom96    9

The Sugar Bowl alone tells a similar story. From a quick glance at the game's history, it appears we'll be the lowest ranked SEC participant since 1974 and the first 8 win SEC entry since the 1991 game. 

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oracle79    674

Has the Sugar Bowl ever featured a 4 loss SEC team?

 

Edit: Just checked the site: All-State Sugar Bowl

From my glance, we are indeed the first ever team with 4 losses to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Edited by oracle79
Fact Check

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DAG    2,086

One thing that baffles me about the SEC is the low limit of decent QBs. QB play is downright dreadful across the board. I mean the 1 premier QB you can argue is a freshman 

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