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JwgreDeux

Ole Miss 2 - a preview

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Ole Miss vs. Auburn (W Basketball)

Auburn (16-8, 5-6) vs. Ole Miss (14-10, 5-6)

  • Saturday, February 11th, 2017
  • 5:00PM CT
  • SEC Network / WatchESPN
    • Mike Morgan, play-by-play 
    • Pat Bradley, analyst 
  • The Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, Mississippi
  • Auburn leads the series, 74-58 
    • In Oxford: OM Leads 40-23 
    • Streak: OM, W9 
    • Last Meeting: OM, W 88-85 (1/7/17)

With Auburn stringing together back to back SEC wins and looking for a third, the "bubble talk" is getting louder.  

Ole Miss dropped their most recent game to Tennessee, but won their previous two. They are a capable and dangerous team but this game is more about us than them. Like I wrote the first time we played them, they don't do anything that we can't handle, they aren't overly talented or complex.  They aren't big, don't defend particularly well, don't score a whole lot, and don't shoot very good percentages. But they do a bit of everything, and we don't have any glaring statistical advantages. Where our advantage lies, is in our talent level but that has been our challenge as well this season. Finding ways to maximize our talent while minimizing our exposure due to youth. Ole Miss is savvy and will punish youth if we play hesitant. We all saw in the first half of the Mississippi State game how good we can be when locked in. In that same game we gave up 60+ points in the second half. 

It seems that things are starting to click more often for this Auburn team. The defensive communication has been better, the offensive ball movement is greatly improved, and we have seen very little standing around on offense as of late. If that continues we will be in every game simply due to our ability to score. Burnett and Saiz, guard forward combo, are the heart and sole of Ole Miss. They lead the team in almost every category and play 30+ minutes per game, at 6'2'' and 6'9'', they are not particularly difficult to match up against for AU, but they are savvy. We cannot allow those two to beat us, especially by fouling them, as they are both good FT shooters. We struggled with that at the end of the State game, and don't need a reminder of how that hurts us. 

Our guards will probably all take turns on Burnett, it will be interesting to see how we guard Saiz, with size or quickness. McLemore could be a good fit here with our best combo of both. 

In any event we have the fire power to go get this one. We will likely be a small road dog (I'd project us as +3), but most metrics has us as the better team, albeit slightly. This is more of a mental test than a physical one. Ole Miss needs this game badly to keep any NIT hopes alive and with a coach on the hot seat. We must go in there wanting it more. 

War Eagle!

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Auburn RPI 58 vs ole miss RPI 71. A top 100 road win helps the resume, and would likely move us into the top 50 RPI. 

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I just saw that Horace Spencer may need surgery and could be out for the season. That would be terrible 

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38 minutes ago, Koychap12 said:

What do you guys think puts us in the NCAA tournament?

6-1 in the remaining schedule with 1 SEC tourney win or 5-2 with 2 tourney wins and we are probably in (23 wins) 5-2 with 1 tourney win or 4-3 with 2 tourney has us on the bubble (22 wins) but I'd guess outside looking in depending on other teams

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just based on what others have said ...

5-2 if one of the wins is arky/fl and a loss isn't missouri/lsu.  

seems like 1 tourney win is just about a must from what everyone is writing on here.

 

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2 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

When's the last time we beat Ole Miss in basketball?

Never mind ...

  • Auburn leads the series, 74-58 
    • In Oxford: OM Leads 40-23 
    • Streak: OM, W9 
    • Last Meeting: OM, W 88-85 (1/7/17)

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Main issue in my view is that we can't Saiz intimidate our inside people.  He is physical and a fairly good shot and a very good rebounder because he fights for position...which means that Wiley can't back down from him.   Otherwise, AU can over-match them at most positions from what I've seen. 

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5 hours ago, au302 said:

I just saw that Horace Spencer may need surgery and could be out for the season. That would be terrible 

That would make us thin on the outside and be a big loss. Luckily Mcclemore has been getting better and better so opportunity for him to step up even more. 

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thanks for the time you put in to keep some of us informed!

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13 hours ago, AU64 said:

Main issue in my view is that we can't Saiz intimidate our inside people.  He is physical and a fairly good shot and a very good rebounder because he fights for position...which means that Wiley can't back down from him.   Otherwise, AU can over-match them at most positions from what I've seen. 

Saiz will be a problem due to his experience. In the OP I said he was savvy, and our defenders are primarily freshmen. Wiley has struggled with foul trouble and Saiz will be a tough cover for him. Perhaps Smith gets an opportunity to contribute in defense and allow Wiley and McLemore to play off Saiz. 

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19 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

We will likely be a small road dog (I'd project us as +3), but most metrics has us as the better team, albeit slightly.

The line is out and we are +4 underdog. 

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32 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Saiz will be a problem due to his experience. In the OP I said he was savvy, and our defenders are primarily freshmen. Wiley has struggled with foul trouble and Saiz will be a tough cover for him. Perhaps Smith gets an opportunity to contribute in defense and allow Wiley and McLemore to play off Saiz. 

Indeed....I've watched a few OM games and the guy knows how to use his size...sneaky too....pushes off relentlessly when rebounding or getting the ball inside and seems to get away with it most of the time.

Our guys will have to keep their cool and good that we have as many as 3 to keep someone pretty fresh on him...if BP plays it that way. 

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Should have included how important a good start is in the road. We have laid a few eggs in this type of game. Can't afford to fall behind early. 

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