SocialCircle 570 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Here is another prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdefromtx 3,159 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: Here is another prediction. Hope his name on Reddit is in reference to Honda vehicles and not an actual pilot.....cuz cocaine is a hellava drug!! 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, wdefromtx said: Hope his name on Reddit is in reference to Honda vehicles and not an actual pilot.....cuz cocaine is a hellava drug!! 😂 We will all find out in time. This is the same thing people were saying in 2016 around this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdefromtx 3,159 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: We will all find out in time. This is the same thing people were saying in 2016 around this point. I was saying Trump would win 2016 all the way back in mid 2015. Nothing scientific, just a gut feeling. This time everything changed once the pandemic hit. In March I would have said he would be re-elected. Now I feel he will lose by a lot. I don’t think it will be close honestly. The only way he gets re-elected is if he has a huge increase in folks that won’t admit to voting for him like last time, but way way more. To be honest, I think the US could have still had the same amount of deaths from Covid and he would be re-elected if he had just shut his mouth. But we all know that’s impossible for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
channonc 466 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 minute ago, wdefromtx said: The only way he gets re-elected is if he has a huge increase in folks that won’t admit to voting for him like last time, but way way more. Or gets lots of ballots thrown out as his legal team is already working to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: We will all find out in time. This is the same thing people were saying in 2016 around this point. Lots of fundamental differences this time in polling, including Biden eclipsing 50% in several key places. Clinton never got over that threshold in those states at any point in the polling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Also, trump is an incumbent, so this numbers are an indictment of his actual job performance. He can't brainwash anyone into thinking he's anything other than exactly what he is. Some of you accept what he is. Most of us still couldn't possibly fathom stooping so low. And those in the middle can't pretend that his opponent is just as bad this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, wdefromtx said: I was saying Trump would win 2016 all the way back in mid 2015. Nothing scientific, just a gut feeling. This time everything changed once the pandemic hit. In March I would have said he would be re-elected. Now I feel he will lose by a lot. I don’t think it will be close honestly. The only way he gets re-elected is if he has a huge increase in folks that won’t admit to voting for him like last time, but way way more. To be honest, I think the US could have still had the same amount of deaths from Covid and he would be re-elected if he had just shut his mouth. But we all know that’s impossible for him. I also think Biden will likely win because of the pandemic. However, I thought Hillary was the likely winner last time. However, just like last time I think Trump has a decent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Also, trump is an incumbent, so this numbers are an indictment of his actual job performance. He can't brainwash anyone into thinking he's anything other than exactly what he is. Some of you accept what he is. Most of us still couldn't possibly fathom stooping so low. And those in the middle can't pretend that his opponent is just as bad this time. If he loses I believe it will be almost completely because his personality turned off too many moderates. I think his job performance will have very little to do with it. I’m not even a Trump fan and I think he has kept more of the promises he made than anyone I can remember. He has gotten a lot more positive things accomplished than I dreamed he could. No doubt his words too often get in the way of and overshadow his accomplishments though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Georgia reporting a 41% increase in early voting over 2016. Not suggesting that means anything in particular. But I know people who waited in line for 4 hours yesterday. Heard stories of folks waiting up to 10 hours. Lemme tell ya. Atlanta has to want something pretty bad to wait 4 hours in line for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Georgia reporting a 41% increase in early voting over 2016. Not suggesting that means anything in particular. But I know people who waited in line for 4 hours yesterday. Heard stories of folks waiting up to 10 hours. Lemme tell ya. Atlanta has to want something pretty bad to wait 4 hours in line for it. I am very happy to see the long lines in GA for early voting. They are long here in Walton County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Georgia reporting a 41% increase in early voting over 2016. Not suggesting that means anything in particular. But I know people who waited in line for 4 hours yesterday. Heard stories of folks waiting up to 10 hours. Lemme tell ya. Atlanta has to want something pretty bad to wait 4 hours in line for it. Texas starts today and the lines I'm seeing on Twitter are ridiculous. Wife and I are waiting a few days for things to slow down. 7 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: I am very happy to see the long lines in GA for early voting. They are long here in Walton County. See, I'm never happy to see long lines. We need more voting machines and polling places nationwide. People in other developed countries laugh at how long some of our citizens have to wait in order to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said: See, I'm never happy to see long lines. We need more voting machines and polling places nationwide. People in other developed countries laugh at how long some of our citizens have to wait in order to vote. Sorry, I should have specified that I'm happy to see the turnout. Agreed that this country makes it way too damned hard to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said: Texas starts today and the lines I'm seeing on Twitter are ridiculous. Wife and I are waiting a few days for things to slow down. See, I'm never happy to see long lines. We need more voting machines and polling places nationwide. People in other developed countries laugh at how long some of our citizens have to wait in order to vote. I guess my point is I’m happy to see people are excited to vote. People here at least chose to wait in a long line because they went on the first couple of days of early voting. Here you can wait until next week and avoid the lunch time crowd and get in and out quickly. I’m sure some places could use more voting machines and polling places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Sorry, I should have specified that I'm happy to see the turnout. Agreed that this country makes it way too damned hard to vote. Haha, whoops @Brad_ATX, I thought you were still responding to me... but I was indeed happy to see the turnout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,147 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Fivethirtyeight.com has flipped GA to dem lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,472 Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, AUDub said: Fivethirtyeight.com has flipped GA to dem lean. 😲 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,147 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 I noticed it on the forecast but Nate Silver actually wrote an article explaining why the model thinks that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-georgia-turn-blue/amp/?__twitter_impression=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,472 Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, AUDub said: I noticed it on the forecast but Nate Silver actually wrote an article explaining why the model thinks that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-georgia-turn-blue/amp/?__twitter_impression=true I was just discussing that Quinnipiac poll in GA yesterday with a friend of mine. It seems far-fetched to me to think Biden could win by seven there. I won't be shocked if something in their model is going to show in election results to have been a good bit more off than most others. But just the fact that Biden would win GA by any margin shows you how much of a disaster Trump has been for the GOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
channonc 466 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, TitanTiger said: I was just discussing that Quinnipiac poll in GA yesterday with a friend of mine. It seems far-fetched to me to think Biden could win by seven there. I won't be shocked if something in their model is going to show in election results to have been a good bit more off than most others. But just the fact that Biden would win GA by any margin shows you how much of a disaster Trump has been for the GOP. Agree with this. Quinnipiac also is more of a lean Dem poll as well, so I don't always think that their polls show the full picture. That being said, even if you take it down by the margin of error it still doesn't show good news for the President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,472 Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 Latest IBD/TIPP national poll has Biden +3 (49-46%). Right now it's an outlier as the rest of the most recent polls have Biden's national lead at around 9 points on average. I expect there's been some tightening but unless I see other polls start to fall in line with this, I don't know that I trust this one marker yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 On 10/15/2020 at 10:37 AM, TitanTiger said: I was just discussing that Quinnipiac poll in GA yesterday with a friend of mine. It seems far-fetched to me to think Biden could win by seven there. I won't be shocked if something in their model is going to show in election results to have been a good bit more off than most others. But just the fact that Biden would win GA by any margin shows you how much of a disaster Trump has been for the GOP. A poll showing Biden will win Georgia does not show anything of the sort. Now if the actual results of this election give a victory to Ossoff and to Biden and Biden also flips a few other traditionally red states, then I will agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,472 Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: A poll showing Biden will win Georgia does not show anything of the sort. Now if the actual results of this election give a victory to Ossoff and to Biden and Biden also flips a few other traditionally red states, then I will agree with you. Georgia should not be in play, period - much less showing a possible Biden win. When it is, it's a failure of the GOP and the candidate they've backed. There are so many built in advantages for any decent Republican in GA that it takes almost a catastrophic failure to lose them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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