State of the race, mid September

[SocialCircle 570]

1 minute ago, TitanTiger said:

Georgia should not be in play, period - much less showing a possible Biden win.  When it is, it's a failure of the GOP and the candidate they've backed.  There are so many built in advantages for any decent Republican in GA that it takes almost a catastrophic failure to lose them.

GA has changed. The large counties like Cobb and Gwinnett are now blue. Stacey Abrams even made it close. Your analysis of GA is off. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

6 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

GA has changed. The large counties like Cobb and Gwinnett are now blue. Stacey Abrams even made it close. Your analysis of GA is off. 

State level politics and national politics are different animals.  There are a lot of folks that will cross party lines voting for mayor, state legislature, or governor that never do that for President.  Trump beat Hillary in GA by over 200,000 votes.  A comfortable 5-point margin.  But now he's fighting for dear life to hold a state that last went for a Democrat 28 years ago.  And before that the they hadn't voted for one who wasn't a Georgia native (Carter) since John F. Kennedy in 1960.  For national politics, Georgia is a red state.  It may not be quite as red as it was 10-15 years ago, but any GOP candidate worth a damn wins that state.  They aren't holding on by their fingernails 13 days about from Election Day.

[McLoofus 35,182]

12 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Georgia should not be in play, period - much less showing a possible Biden win.  When it is, it's a failure of the GOP and the candidate they've backed.  There are so many built in advantages for any decent Republican in GA that it takes almost a catastrophic failure to lose them.

Even with Kemp rigging the gubernatorial election, Abrams almost took it. Half the ATL metro = a third of the state's population. Savannah's been blue since 2000. Y'allywood, up until March, has pushed even more transplants and liberal thought (and dollars) into the state. Historically you're right but I wouldn't be surprised to see GA as a true swing state in the next 10-12 years.

[SocialCircle 570]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

State level politics and national politics are different animals.  There are a lot of folks that will cross party lines voting for mayor, state legislature, or governor that never do that for President.  Trump beat Hillary in GA by over 200,000 votes.  A comfortable 5-point margin.  But now he's fighting for dear life to hold a state that last went for a Democrat 28 years ago.  And before that the they hadn't voted for one who wasn't a Georgia native (Carter) since John F. Kennedy in 1960.  For national politics, Georgia is a red state.  It may not be quite as red as it was 10-15 years ago, but any GOP candidate worth a damn wins that state.  They aren't holding on by their fingernails 13 days about from Election Day.

Again Georgia has changed and your analysis of Georgia is wrong.  The Kemp/Abrams race showed this as will most races going forward....both state and national. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

2 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Again Georgia has changed and your analysis of Georgia is wrong.  The Kemp/Abrams race showed this as will most races going forward....both state and national. 

Again, state level politics ≠ national politics and making assumptions about a presidential election them is wrong.  A Republican that isn't a disaster should win the state, even in 2020.

[Leftfield 2,601]

Just now, SocialCircle said:

Again Georgia has changed and your analysis of Georgia is wrong.  The Kemp/Abrams race showed this as will most races going forward....both state and national. 

Georgia has changed, but it would have to be pretty drastic to explain recent polling. Romney, a Mormon that many saw as a RINO because of the Massachusetts health care system, won Georgia by eight points. The metro Atlanta population has gone up about a million since then, but not all, and probably not even most, of those are blue state transplants. Also, Trump is actually polling better with minorities than he was in 2016. From where would you say all this extra support for Biden is coming?

[SocialCircle 570]

9 minutes ago, Leftfield said:

Georgia has changed, but it would have to be pretty drastic to explain recent polling. Romney, a Mormon that many saw as a RINO because of the Massachusetts health care system, won Georgia by eight points. The metro Atlanta population has gone up about a million since then, but not all, and probably not even most, of those are blue state transplants. Also, Trump is actually polling better with minorities than he was in 2016. From where would you say all this extra support for Biden is coming?

The results of the Kemp/Abrams race accurately showed the number of voters in GA who now lean voting D vs the number who lean voting R.  Georgia will be close for the foreseeable future. I expect the senate race between Perdue and Ossoff to be equally close.   I do expect narrow wins for Trump and Perdue.....similar to when Kemp was elected.  Most of the folks moving in aren't from red states.  This is why both Cobb and Gwinnett (once R strongholds) now go D.  Of course, the populous DeKalb and Fulton counties around Atlanta have typically done D in recent years but now it is by a higher percentage.  Out my way (east of Atl) Rockdale swung from R to D several years ago and just recently Newton did so.  Walton, where I live, is still solidly R. Overall, Georgia has simply changed as more people have moved in. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

38 minutes ago, Leftfield said:

Georgia has changed, but it would have to be pretty drastic to explain recent polling. Romney, a Mormon that many saw as a RINO because of the Massachusetts health care system, won Georgia by eight points. The metro Atlanta population has gone up about a million since then, but not all, and probably not even most, of those are blue state transplants. Also, Trump is actually polling better with minorities than he was in 2016. From where would you say all this extra support for Biden is coming?

As @Brad_ATX has pointed out, the burbs hated Hillary. Doesn't dispute the point that you and @TitanTiger are making, necessarily. They don't hate Biden. 

Also, trump might be polling better with "minorities"- he's actually a lot stronger than one would think with Latinos because Catholicism, and also some legal immigrants, as @AuburnNTexas has pointed out, actually support hardline immigration policies since they had to jump through hoops themselves- but African Americans have embraced Biden much more. 

As for the population of ATL, folks might be moving from red states, but consider that they chose to move *to* a liberal metro. Granted, most of that is probably folks that were just moving there for jobs and didn't really have the luxury of basing their move on politics, but they did make the move. And then there is the snowball effect. As people move out of rural areas, demographically homogenized areas, and echo chambers of thought to much more cosmopolitan, diverse and liberal areas, they are likely to become more open to new ideas. Just from personal experience, I met mostly northeasterners, followed closely by midwesterners, followed next by southeasterners. But I lived in the city and it seems like other southeasterners preferred the burbs. Shocker. 

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

People are also very much underestimating the amount of women running away from Trump right now.  The difference in support from four years ago is astounding, especially among suburban women.  Has a lot to do with what you're seeing in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-is-losing-white-suburban-women/

It wasn’t that long ago, though, that Trump had an edge among suburban voters. In 2016, Trump won them, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to an analysis of validated voters by the Pew Research Center. But by 2018, 52 percent of suburban voters supported Democratic candidates for Congress, compared with 45 percent who supported Republican candidates. And according to our analysis of polling data from Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, Trump is losing suburban voters to Biden, by 54 percent to 44 percent. 1

[McLoofus 35,182]

6 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

People are also very much underestimating the amount of women running away from Trump right now.  The difference in support from four years ago is astounding, especially among suburban women.  Has a lot to do with what you're seeing in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-is-losing-white-suburban-women/

It wasn’t that long ago, though, that Trump had an edge among suburban voters. In 2016, Trump won them, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to an analysis of validated voters by the Pew Research Center. But by 2018, 52 percent of suburban voters supported Democratic candidates for Congress, compared with 45 percent who supported Republican candidates. And according to our analysis of polling data from Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, Trump is losing suburban voters to Biden, by 54 percent to 44 percent. 1

Purely anecdotal, but a female extended family member was intensely pro-trump in '16. To the point that I had to mute her on social. Not because I disagreed with her, but because her content was so prolific and singular. Well, I recently scanned her feed and there is nothing this time. Absolutely nothing. Any number of other things could have changed in that time, but we really are talking "biggest cheerleader in the tri-county area" to "huh? what's a politic?".

 

[SocialCircle 570]

4 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Purely anecdotal, but a female extended family member was intensely pro-trump in '16. To the point that I had to mute her on social. Not because I disagreed with her, but because her content was so prolific and singular. Well, I recently scanned her feed and there is nothing this time. Absolutely nothing. Any number of other things could have changed in that time, but we really are talking "biggest cheerleader in the tri-county area" to "huh? what's a politic?".

 

I’ve noticed most of my friends on Facebook are much less vocal this time than in 2016. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

6 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I’ve noticed most of my friends on Facebook are much less vocal this time than in 2016. 

I think that is the case for a lot of folks.  My take on it is that there's two reasons that explain most of it:

1.  People are exhausted.  Exhausted by Trump.  Exhausted by the division in the country.  Exhausted by COVID.  And I know more and more Christians in particular whose pastors are calling on them to stop having these debates/arguments on social media and start talking to people in person where the heat doesn't get ratcheted up so easily.

2.  The dividing lines don't fall where they typically have in times past, particularly with Republicans.  Churches and families that used to be 99% on the same page politically are finding that some of their closest friends, fellow congregants and even family are either not voting for Trump this time around or even voting Biden.  It makes every discussion fraught with peril of losing friendships or creating awkward family gatherings and people are just keeping their opinions more to themselves than before when they could expect little disagreement over something they might post online.

 

[SocialCircle 570]

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/?fbclid=IwAR1xzCMx4dZeu_idFzoU4byS6p1ORoc5i5HrBhhg4POu3XQfkhnt6FzFB3A
 

[AUDub 11,148]

10 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/?fbclid=IwAR1xzCMx4dZeu_idFzoU4byS6p1ORoc5i5HrBhhg4POu3XQfkhnt6FzFB3A
 

Only one poll, so it might just be noise. Plus Biden got some very good state level polling at the same time. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

12 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Only one poll, so it might just be noise. Plus Biden got some very good state level polling at the same time. 

Also, that link is from two days ago.  IBD/TIPP is basically doing a rolling daily poll at this point.  Today, the poll has moved to a 5-point lead for Biden:

Biden 50%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen (Libertarian Party) 3%
Hawkins (Green Party) 1%

https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/

[AUDub 11,148]

Just now, TitanTiger said:

Also, that link is from two days ago.  IBD/TIPP is basically doing a rolling daily poll at this point.  Today, the poll has moved to a 5-point lead for Biden:

Biden 50%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%

https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/

i.e. a tracking poll, like USC/Dornsiffe. It's a weird one and it's hard to know how to weigh it effectively given how fickle those are. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

4 minutes ago, AUDub said:

i.e. a tracking poll, like USC/Dornsiffe. It's a weird one and it's hard to know how to weigh it effectively given how fickle those are. 

What it looks like is that Trump had a particularly good day of polling under their model 5 days ago and that day rolled off the window.  

[TitanTiger 20,482]

Meanwhile, Trafalgar is pushing all their chips in:

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522016-trafalgar-chief-pollster-predicts-trump-victory-polls-predominantly-missing

[McLoofus 35,182]

Imagine being to ashamed of your vote to admit it, and casting it anyway.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

Meanwhile, Trafalgar is pushing all their chips in:

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522016-trafalgar-chief-pollster-predicts-trump-victory-polls-predominantly-missing

Trafalgar was correct in 2016.  They were also way off in 2018.

[TitanTiger 20,482]

 

Quote

 

The Polls Make Sense

Jonathan V. Last

This is the point on the ride where everyone freaks out and decides that the polls mustbe wrong. That you can’t trust the numbers. That something real is happening that isn’t being captured in the data.

Maybe there is something happening that we can’t see. It’s possible.

But I doubt it. Because the most striking thing about the global view that both the national and state polls give us is how much they make sense in the context of one another.

The cross-tabs of demographic support make sense given the top-line national levels. The top-line national levels are consistent with what we see in almost all of the state level polling. And almost all of the horse-race polling is consistent with the long-running job approval numbers of the the president.

There’s a lot of signal here. And it all points in the same direction.

Before we start, never forget the foundation of this race: Donald Trump began his presidency on the wrong side of voters. He was elected with 46 percent of the vote and started out in a -3 million vote hole.

Did the data from his term ever look like he was adding to that coalition?

No.

People have never liked the job Donald Trump has done as president. Not one bit.

So what would you expect the national numbers to look like for a president who began his term with 46 percent of the vote and was then substantially net-negative on job approval for four years? You would expect his national support to be lower than 46 percent.

Presto.

Now, if Trump’s national average has dropped, you would expect to see him losing ground with various demographic groups when you look at the cross tabs. 

In 2016 Trump was +7 with voters over 65 and -13 with women. No matter what poll you look at, Trump has declined with both. Pew has him at ±0 with seniors and -16 with women. Pew’s poll is n=10,543 so it’s a pretty good sample, but you see this trend basically everywhere. Trump has gone backwards with seniors and women (among other groups) and hasn’t really gained appreciably with anyone aside from Hispanic males.

So if Trump’s national numbers are down and his numbers with many demographic groups are down, then we’d expect to see him losing ground in state polling, too.

Have a look:

Note that none of these states are the big battlegrounds. We’re looking only at places Trump won comfortably in 2016 and that have, for the most part, very favorable demographics for him. And they’re exhibiting the same trends we see everywhere else: Trump’s position declining relative to 2016.

When you look at the battlegrounds, you see the same again:

By now you should sense a pattern. No matter which way you look at this race, Donald Trump is in a measurably worse position than he was in 2016.

The Trump people will tell you that all of these numbers are wrong. The polls are skewed. The samples are bad. There are shy Trump voters who don’t show up.

Maybe? But there is no actual evidence for any of that. 

Ask yourself this: Is Trump showing a 9 point decline in West Virginia because of all the shy Trump voters down in the hollers?

On the other hand, all of the available evidence collected over four years of survey work points in the exact same direction:

A president elected with a minority vote share spent four years being deeply unpopular, lost ground across most demographic groups, and is now on track to finish with an even smaller vote share, both in states he won in 2016 and states he lost.

It’s not that complicated.

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/the-polls-make-sense

 

 

[SocialCircle 570]

3 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Imagine being to ashamed of your vote to admit it, and casting it anyway.

I don't think that is it at all.  Imagine getting your car keyed or your business burned down, boycotted, or vandalized because of your support. Imagine if your adult child refuses to allow you to see your grandchildren simply because of your support for a political candidate.  Or imagine being called a racist because you support one candidate. Imagine thinking if someone has your phone number and you tell them who you support what they could do or have done to you?   I believe in today's environment it is better to be safe than to be sorry. There are lots of crazy people on both sides actually. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

9 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I don't think that is it at all.  Imagine getting your car keyed or your business burned down, boycotted, or vandalized because of your support. Imagine if your adult child refuses to allow you to see your grandchildren simply because of your support for a political candidate.  Or imagine being called a racist because you support one candidate. Imagine thinking if someone has your phone number and you tell them who you support what they could do or have done to you?   I believe in today's environment it is better to be safe than to be sorry. There are lots of crazy people on both sides actually. 

...all things that have never happened from answering an anonymous political poll.

[SocialCircle 570]

55 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

...all things that have never happened from answering an anonymous political poll.

This is factually incorrect. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

Just now, SocialCircle said:

This is factually incorrect. 

Link it.