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State of the race, mid September


TitanTiger

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13 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

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that sure does seem fishy.............sounds like a trump talking point.

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2 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

that sure does seem fishy.............sounds like a trump talking point.

I still feel sorry for the children.  It looks like many of them were sent up here with people who weren't their parents.  And their parents don't want them.  It could be the parents think they are better off where they are as opposed to being back in their home country. 

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Rasmussen looks like it's back to being Baghdad Bob for Trump.  They have Trump up 1 in national polling.  Even the IBD/TIPP poll that had dipped a few days ago to Biden only being up three points is back up to Biden +7.  Every other poll on RCP's average has Biden with a 7 to 12-point advantage right now.  

Color me skeptical.

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24 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Rasmussen looks like it's back to being Baghdad Bob for Trump.  They have Trump up 1 in national polling.  Even the IBD/TIPP poll that had dipped a few days ago to Biden only being up three points is back up to Biden +7.  Every other poll on RCP's average has Biden with a 7 to 12-point advantage right now.  

Color me skeptical.

Worth noting that Rasmussen had the 2018 generic ballot at Republicans +1.  It actually went Dem +8.

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3 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

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First, that's not an attribution.  Where did it come from?

Regardless, these people left their homes to save themselves and their children. I recall reading about cases in which threats were made by gangs to rape/kill their children to extort money or force their children into the gangs.

So it's hardly surprising that some of these parents are doing what they feel is in their child's best interest by not taking them back into such an environment.

As a country, we should be ashamed of separating and retaining their children while sending the parents back without an asylum hearing.

"Christian country" my ass.  :no:

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On 10/23/2020 at 6:51 PM, creed said:

Economics 101...law of supply and demand. Unless there are extreme external influences such as regulatory or governmental requirenents. One of my favorite classes. 

It't the "negative externalities" (external costs) of pollution and environmental degradation that regulation is meant to address.

They are the driving force for transition to renewable energy in the first place. 

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Travis County is Austin.  Heavily blue county.  Went 65/27 Clinton to Trump four years ago and 79/20 Beto to Cruz in 2018.

Would expect similar percentage margins to that 2018 number, but the raw vote will be much higher.

If you continue to see these types of turnout numbers in the big and suburban counties here in Texas, then the state may really be in play.  Never thought I'd say that.

 

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23 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Travis County is Austin.  Heavily blue county.  Went 65/27 Clinton to Trump four years ago and 79/20 Beto to Cruz in 2018.

Would expect similar percentage margins to that 2018 number, but the raw vote will be much higher.

If you continue to see these types of turnout numbers in the big and suburban counties here in Texas, then the state may really be in play.  Never thought I'd say that.

 

How much of a toss up would TX be if it wasn't Trump? Do you think it's more a shift left or a vote against Trump?

Not Travis, but the state overall.

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4 minutes ago, bigbird said:

How much of a toss up would TX be if it wasn't Trump? Do you think it's more a shift left or a vote against Trump?

Not Travis, but the state overall.

Cruz won in a close race in his last election so it must be the demographics are changing. 

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2 hours ago, bigbird said:

How much of a toss up would TX be if it wasn't Trump? Do you think it's more a shift left or a vote against Trump?

Not Travis, but the state overall.

Not sure why this one got facepalmed, but it is ICHY

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13 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Not sure why this one got facepalmed, but it is ICHY

Why do you feel the need to continue rehashing that in every election thread? What is the point in this thread?

 

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2 hours ago, bigbird said:

How much of a toss up would TX be if it wasn't Trump? Do you think it's more a shift left or a vote against Trump?

Not Travis, but the state overall.

I think the state is moving toward being more slightly "purple" so to speak, but I think if this were a race between a candidate like Kasich or Rubio vs Biden, it would be a fairly safe GOP win.  I think the anti-immigration actions and rhetoric from Trump and just Trump being the terrible human being that he is in general are making it closer than it would normally be.

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54 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Why do you feel the need to continue rehashing that in every election thread? What is the point in this thread?

 

Rehash what? I am legitimately wondering why a legit question that to one that lives in Austin and what he sees/feels about the political standing in Texas got facepalmed.  Does @Brad_ATX see a political shift or does he think what we're seeing this cycle is based on Trump fatigue/disapproval?

 

Why do you feel the need to try and police post/conversation between others that don't involve or include you?

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16 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Rehash what? I am legitimately wondering why a legit question that to one that lives in Austin and what he sees/feels about the political standing in Texas got facepalmed.  Does @Brad_ATX see a political shift or does he think what we're seeing this cycle is based on Trump fatigue/disapproval?

Why do you feel the need to try and police post/conversation between others that don't involve or include you?

On the last part, nah. I'm not attempting to police anything. Just fatigue. Every election thread doesn't require a formal declaration from every participant that Joe Biden sucks and this is just a case of Trump sucking worse.

But you did somewhat ask a question of someone we all know won't be answering it. I ventriloquized.

 

 

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2 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Every election thread doesn't require a formal declaration from every participant that Joe Biden sucks and this is just a case of Trump sucking worse.

That's beyond a big reach.

How did you get that from my question to Brad? 

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10 minutes ago, bigbird said:

That's beyond a big reach.

How did you get that from my question to Brad? 

It's a continuation of a pattern. You have an MO.

What exactly are you expect Brad to say? Do you really, in your heart of hearts, have even the most remote expectation that he might say that Texans are really gravitating towards Biden's policies? His presidential demeanor? Do you genuinely stand ready to change your mind about this?

Do you honestly not realize that you asked a leading question consistent with the same and pretty much only opinion you've consistently offered about this election?

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53 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

It's a continuation of a pattern. You have an MO.

 

Yeah, I know I do. Objectivity. You should try it.

53 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

What exactly are you expect Brad to say?

I don't know, maybe he would give his opinion. 

53 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Do you really, in your heart of hearts, have even the most remote expectation that he might say that Texans are really gravitating towards Biden's policies?

Yes, absolutely. Why wouldn't I? Political leanings and opinions are fluid. They may not change quickly, but for many, they change.

53 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Do you genuinely stand ready to change your mind about this?

There are things I agree with Biden on.

There are things I agree with Trump on.

Unlike many here, I don't base my political views and opinions based on a particular party.

53 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Do you honestly not realize that you asked a leading question consistent with the same and pretty much only opinion you've consistently offered about this election?

How was it leading? Does he think there has been a shift in Texas or is the close race due to it being against Trump? That's not leading.

The initial question to Brad wasn't leading him anywhere. It was valuing his opinion and firsthand knowledge from the region of the state in which he lives. Each region in Texas is as diverse as the landscape. What I am seeing in and around Houston may or may not be what he is experiencing in and around Austin. That's why I asked Brad.

As far as your thoughts on my opinion about the election goes, many of the other nonlinetoeing posters agree that, for many, this vote will be a referendum on Trump and not necessarily on policy or ideology. Sorry that bothers you.

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