State of the race, mid September

[SocialCircle 570]

29 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Link it.

No. I've witnessed it. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

1 minute ago, SocialCircle said:

No. I've witnessed it. 

Your credibility around here isn't sufficient to let your anecdotal claims be proof.

You can either show evidence of it or shut up about it.

[homersapien 11,373]

1 hour ago, SocialCircle said:

No. I've witnessed it. 

Yeah, all those things happened to you because you responded to an anonymous poll. 

And it's a common experience, but not newsworthy. 

You betcha.  

[SocialCircle 570]

The race flipped tonight. The Tony B statement and then Biden says he is going to kill the oil and gas industry. Trump is going to win unless something else breaks between now and the election. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

6 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

The race flipped tonight. The Tony B statement and then Biden says he is going to kill the oil and gas industry. Trump is going to win unless something else breaks between now and the election. 

I think you should get used to disappointment.

[TitanTiger 20,482]

It'll be interesting to see what the polls after this debate say.  I think both candidates landed a few solid punches, missed a few opportunities, made a couple of mistakes.  My sense is that Trump didn't dig his hole deeper like he did the last time, but neither did he make any significant strides.  And in that sense, it's a win for Biden.  Biden just needed to fight to a draw which I think it basically got.  Trump needed a decisive rout and he didn't get it.  At best if you're a Trump fan, you'd have to say it was a narrow win and that wasn't enough.

I felt the race was going to narrow a bit over the next week anyway and that the end result will be a Biden victory in the national vote of about 6% give or take a few tenths.  I don't think Trump is getting a big bump here so that trajectory will hold.  Barring something cataclysmic coming out, expect Biden to win with somewhere in the neighborhood of 320 electoral votes.

[aubiefifty 16,791]

trump ripping away kids from their parents and trying to blame biden saying biden built the cages instead of talking about the kids i believe hurt him. when you hurt the meekest among us you can no longer claim the moral high ground. and trumpers i understand obama did the cages and yes he was wrong but he was never for separation of kids from their families.

[SocialCircle 570]

3 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

It'll be interesting to see what the polls after this debate say.  I think both candidates landed a few solid punches, missed a few opportunities, made a couple of mistakes.  My sense is that Trump didn't dig his hole deeper like he did the last time, but neither did he make any significant strides.  And in that sense, it's a win for Biden.  Biden just needed to fight to a draw which I think it basically got.  Trump needed a decisive rout and he didn't get it.  At best if you're a Trump fan, you'd have to say it was a narrow win and that wasn't enough.

I felt the race was going to narrow a bit over the next week anyway and that the end result will be a Biden victory in the national vote of about 6% give or take a few tenths.  I don't think Trump is getting a big bump here so that trajectory will hold.  Barring something cataclysmic coming out, expect Biden to win with somewhere in the neighborhood of 320 electoral votes.

I continue to believe whoever wins Pa will win this election. I think Biden made one of the biggest mistakes in presidential debate history with his comments around the gas and oil industry. This will end up swinging PA to Trump and thus the election. Biden will end up like Gore. All he has to do to win this election is to carry his native state and he can’t do it. Also, we will not know the outcome until well after election night. 

[SocialCircle 570]

3 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

trump ripping away kids from their parents and trying to blame biden saying biden built the cages instead of talking about the kids i believe hurt him. when you hurt the meekest among us you can no longer claim the moral high ground. and trumpers i understand obama did the cages and yes he was wrong but he was never for separation of kids from their families.

I actually agree that Biden pointing that out was his best moment in the debate and my heart and prayers go out to those children. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

20 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I continue to believe whoever wins Pa will win this election. I think Biden made one of the biggest mistakes in presidential debate history with his comments around the gas and oil industry. This will end up swinging PA to Trump and thus the election. Biden will end up like Gore. All he has to do to win this election is to carry his native state and he can’t do it. Also, we will not know the outcome until well after election night. 

Trump wishes all that mattered was winning PA.

[TitanTiger 20,482]

32 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Trump wishes all that mattered was winning PA.

Let me expound on why I say that.  Here is a very generous electoral map for Trump:

Note that I've handed him GA and TX, but also OH, FL, NC and PA.  The polls don't really support that kind of run right now, but I'm playing Devil's Advocate here.  Even if he ran the gamut on all of those - including PA, he still falls short.  He still needs to either take back one of AZ, WI, or MI and those are highly unlikely.  

It ends up coming down to Maine and Nebraska, who apportion their electoral votes by congressional district.  Maine's 2nd Congressional District likely goes to Trump so I put that in his column.  NE2 is the area around and including Omaha and Biden has a 6-7 point lead there right now.  All the other states Biden wins, even taking into account him losing OH, FL, NC and PA gets him to 269.  Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District puts him at a 270 and the win, to Trump's 268.

 

[SocialCircle 570]

50 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Let me expound on why I say that.  Here is a very generous electoral map for Trump:

Note that I've handed him GA and TX, but also OH, FL, NC and PA.  The polls don't really support that kind of run right now, but I'm playing Devil's Advocate here.  Even if he ran the gamut on all of those - including PA, he still falls short.  He still needs to either take back one of AZ, WI, or MI and those are highly unlikely.  

It ends up coming down to Maine and Nebraska, who apportion their electoral votes by congressional district.  Maine's 2nd Congressional District likely goes to Trump so I put that in his column.  NE2 is the area around and including Omaha and Biden has a 6-7 point lead there right now.  All the other states Biden wins, even taking into account him losing OH, FL, NC and PA gets him to 269.  Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District puts him at a 270 and the win, to Trump's 268.

 

I believe Trump will carry those states you suggest and also at least one of: AZ, MI, MN, NH, WI. 
 

Time will tell. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

14 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I believe Trump will carry those states you suggest and also at least one of: AZ, MI, MN, NH, WI. 
 

Time will tell. 

Biden current leads in NH by 11 points according to the RCP average.  This is a total pipe dream and its laughable that you think it's even remotely in play.

Michigan is Biden +7.8.  The most recent poll, from Fox News no less, has him up by 12.  Again you're dreaming.

Minnesota has Biden up by 6.  This is the same margin he had a month ago.  Zero indication of movement.  Not likely at all.

Wisconsin has Biden up by 4.6 with an average margin of error of 3.5%.  This one is somewhat close.

Arizona, Biden is up by 3.2.  This one has tightened from a few weeks ago.

So in reality, IF (and it is a Jupiter-sized "IF" at this point) Trump can take every single one of those other states, including PA, you're looking at only two states where it's realistic to say he might take one of them:  WI and AZ.

And I haven't even gotten into the fact that Iowa (which Trump took in 2016) is a dead heat (RCP average is Biden +0.8).

Unless something dramatic happens (and it's becoming more and more clear that this Hunter Biden laptop isn't going to be that thing), you're betting the house on Trump drawing an inside straight.

[SocialCircle 570]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

Biden current leads in NH by 11 points according to the RCP average.  This is a total pipe dream and its laughable that you think it's even remotely in play.

Michigan is Biden +7.8.  The most recent poll, from Fox News no less, has him up by 12.  Again you're dreaming.

Minnesota has Biden up by 6.  This is the same margin he had a month ago.  Zero indication of movement.  Not likely at all.

Wisconsin has Biden up by 4.6 with an average margin of error of 3.5%.  This one is somewhat close.

Arizona, Biden is up by 3.2.  This one has tightened from a few weeks ago.

So in reality, IF (and it is a Jupiter-sized "IF" at this point) Trump can take every single one of those other states, including PA, you're looking at only two states where it's realistic to say he might take one of them:  WI and AZ.

And I haven't even gotten into the fact that Iowa (which Trump took in 2016) is a dead heat (RCP average is Biden +0.8).

Unless something dramatic happens (and it's becoming more and more clear that this Hunter Biden laptop isn't going to be that thing), you're betting the house on Trump drawing an inside straight.

I'm not betting anything.  I still expect the election to boil down to PA and I think Trump wins it largely because of Biden's comments as it relates to the oil and gas industry at this debate. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

1 minute ago, SocialCircle said:

I'm not betting anything.  I still expect the election to boil down to PA and I think Trump wins it largely because of Biden's comments as it relates to the oil and gas industry at this debate. 

I didn't mean literally, dummy.  I mean, you're hinging this entire notion of coming down to PA on Trump having to complete a run across several states he's losing by significant margins in now just to get the chance for PA to be the difference.  That indeed is like expecting him to draw an inside straight.

 

 

[SocialCircle 570]

9 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I didn't mean literally, dummy.  I mean, you're hinging this entire notion of coming down to PA on Trump having to complete a run across several states he's losing by significant margins in now just to get the chance for PA to be the difference.  That indeed is like expecting him to draw an inside straight.

 

 

I've heard this before.....like during the last presidential election. 

[TitanTiger 20,482]

2 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I've heard this before.....like during the last presidential election. 

Perchance when you heard this the last time, did you happen to notice the margins between Trump and Hillary then vs the margins between Trump and Biden now, both nationally and in the battleground states?  Because if you did, this trope would be of cold comfort to you right now.

[AUEngineer2016 407]

9 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I'm not betting anything.  I still expect the election to boil down to PA and I think Trump wins it largely because of Biden's comments as it relates to the oil and gas industry at this debate. 

FWIW, FiveThirtyEight has Biden winning PA in 87% of their 40,000 simulations. 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

 

Also as a FWIW, I work in Oil & Gas (I'm a Software Engineer working in Upstream Land. Past clients include Chevron, Exxon (via Imperial in Canada), Marathon, Shell, BP GOM, Equinor (Offshore and Onshore), Hess, Conoco, & others. My company's software is used at 100+ North American operators, including 9 of the 10 largest producers in the US (those being BP, Chevron, Conoco, Exxon, Oxy, Shell, Anadarko [now acquired by Oxy], Apache, and XTO). . The industry has known and been preparing for the world to shift away from Oil & Gas for a while. Our software solutions are being adapted to renewables (i.e. how you Lease Management & Accounting for windmills vs wells) and have been for some time. 

[Leftfield 2,598]

Hi, everyone!

I popped in to post my thoughts on the debate, but then I realized, "Hey....I wonder what Social thought about the debate. Specifically, what did he think about Biden's comments on the oil industry, how that might affect voters in Pennsylvania, and the larger effect that might have on the election?" Maybe I missed it when I read through all the threads. Anybody have any idea?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

38 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I'm not betting anything.  I still expect the election to boil down to PA and I think Trump wins it largely because of Biden's comments as it relates to the oil and gas industry at this debate. 

 

27 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I've heard this before.....like during the last presidential election. 

You're making a few mistakes here.

1) The amount of votes that can be influenced by the last debate is minimal.  Early voting is through the roof and the amount of undecided voters this time around are far fewer.  In 2016, about 12-14% of the electorate was either 3rd party or undecided.  It broke heavily for Trump, giving him slim wins in key states.  This year, the number of 3rd party/undecideds is about 6-7%.  So even IF those folks broke heavily for Trump again, it's likely not enough to make up the ground he needs.

 

2) The national polls in 2016 were in the 47-41 range right about now and Hilary was not above 50% in any battleground state.  Today they show Biden above 50% nationally and above that 50% number in 11 battlegrounds, including your beloved PA that you keep quoting.

Basically you are falling into the trap of thinking 2016 is an indication of this year, when in reality, the fundamentals of the race are far different.

 

[SocialCircle 570]

38 minutes ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

FWIW, FiveThirtyEight has Biden winning PA in 87% of their 40,000 simulations. 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

 

Also as a FWIW, I work in Oil & Gas (I'm a Software Engineer working in Upstream Land. Past clients include Chevron, Exxon (via Imperial in Canada), Marathon, Shell, BP GOM, Equinor (Offshore and Onshore), Hess, Conoco, & others. My company's software is used at 100+ North American operators, including 9 of the 10 largest producers in the US (those being BP, Chevron, Conoco, Exxon, Oxy, Shell, Anadarko [now acquired by Oxy], Apache, and XTO). . The industry has known and been preparing for the world to shift away from Oil & Gas for a while. Our software solutions are being adapted to renewables (i.e. how you Lease Management & Accounting for windmills vs wells) and have been for some time. 

I have several clients in this industry as well.  My clients would prefer to keep their jobs longer rather than shorter and also be able to transition and hopefully be part of the the new normal.  Also, Harris is on record as wanting to prohibit fracking from day one. 

[SocialCircle 570]

11 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

 

You're making a few mistakes here.

1) The amount of votes that can be influenced by the last debate is minimal.  Early voting is through the roof and the amount of undecided voters this time around are far fewer.  In 2016, about 12-14% of the electorate was either 3rd party or undecided.  It broke heavily for Trump, giving him slim wins in key states.  This year, the number of 3rd party/undecideds is about 6-7%.  So even IF those folks broke heavily for Trump again, it's likely not enough to make up the ground he needs.

 

2) The national polls in 2016 were in the 47-41 range right about now and Hilary was not above 50% in any battleground state.  Today they show Biden above 50% nationally and above that 50% number in 11 battlegrounds, including your beloved PA that you keep quoting.

Basically you are falling into the trap of thinking 2016 is an indication of this year, when in reality, the fundamentals of the race are far different.

 

Only time will tell and I suspect it will take a lot longer time to tell this election. 

[SocialCircle 570]

34 minutes ago, Leftfield said:

Hi, everyone!

I popped in to post my thoughts on the debate, but then I realized, "Hey....I wonder what Social thought about the debate. Specifically, what did he think about Biden's comments on the oil industry, how that might affect voters in Pennsylvania, and the larger effect that might have on the election?" Maybe I missed it when I read through all the threads. Anybody have any idea?

Did you also see how many disagree?  Going to be a very interesting November in this country. 

[AUEngineer2016 407]

1 hour ago, SocialCircle said:

I have several clients in this industry as well.  My clients would prefer to keep their jobs longer rather than shorter and also be able to transition and hopefully be part of the the new normal.  Also, Harris is on record as wanting to prohibit fracking from day one. 

Quote from Biden last night:

Quote

We’re not getting rid of fossil fuels for a long time… probably 2050

Transitioning from Oil & Gas to Renewables isn't a new idea, and it's not something that will happen overnight, but IMO it's a process that is going to happen at some point, and it would be beneficial to start that process sooner rather than later so that we aren't forced into making it a short, jarring transition. 

[SocialCircle 570]

46 minutes ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

Quote from Biden last night:

Transitioning from Oil & Gas to Renewables isn't a new idea, and it's not something that will happen overnight, but IMO it's a process that is going to happen at some point, and it would be beneficial to start that process sooner rather than later so that we aren't forced into making it a short, jarring transition. 

Process has already started and the speed and process should be market driven as opposed to government driven. Meanwhile, Harris is for prohibiting fracking from day one. Biden has waffled on this, so nobody knows.