Soonerfans.com

[WaDE'05 8]

Those guys are just ripping us....

[PenguinAUB 0]

they are scared after being dominated by another SEC team last year

that is the truth, and they dont want it to happen again

[AuNuma1 1]

Ripping us about what?

[WaDE'05 8]

Check it out...... They really fail to make a legitimate argument about anything. They just talk about how CTT is an ignorant redneck and they are God's gift to women and football. With their tradition, I expected a little class and intelligent conversation. After reading the post, I passed on signing up. Must have something to do with the crimson jerseys.

[tigereyes 19]

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25415

BCS analysis from the OU Rivals board

This was just posted on the Rivals board by "Your Crimson Nightmare".

His analysis has been pretty on this year and last.

Kudos to him for all the work!

YourCr...htmare

user profile

SoonerScoop.com Hall of Fame Poster

Post #8570 Current BCS analysis Reply

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Do you want the good news first, or the bad news?

Well, I'll give you the good news first.

Sagarin's new computer rankings are out, and OU has moved ahead of USC, which now gives OU #1 rankings in at least five of six computer ratings as of this moment. While I can't specifically predict where Anderson-Hester, Massey, Wolfe and Billingsly are going to put OU this week, I have no reason to think that OU will move down in any of them.

OU played a better opponent in Nebraska than USC did in Arizona, and USC's opponents took a slight ratings hit when one suffered a slight upset. Nothing major, but BYU's loss at home to New Mexico helps OU in two ways: BYU played USC, and New Mexico played Texas Tech.

Anyway, it is very reasonable to expect that OU will be #1 in not fewer than 5 computers this week, which means that our computer ranking average will change from 1.2500 to 1.0000, and USC's drop to #2 in a another ranking (They were #2 in all but two computer rankings last week.) means that their computer ranking average will change from 1.7500 to 2.0000.

I look for Auburn to move up in the rankings somewhat. I had previously indicated a computer ranking peak average of 3.0000 for Auburn, because even with their improving schedule they don't have the meat in their collective body of opponents to get past either OU or USC. If they start to pass anyone in the top 2 in the computer rankings, it won't be OU but USC, since USC's schedule is weaker than the Sooners. But I don't forsee that happening.

I believe that OU's position in the computer rankings is solid enough that OU is not likely to move down through the final BCS poll in that component. Because Auburn's computer rankings can't touch OU, and while USC's closing schedule of Notre Dame and UCLA is better than Baylor and the Big 12 North champion, it isn't enough better to give any real ranking boost to USC, at least not enough to knock OU from #1.

So I'm still projecting OU to finish the BCS with a 1.0000 computer component at the final BCS rankings, if OU beats Baylor and wins the conference title game.

Here is my projection for the computer component of the BCS rankings this week:

USC 0.9600

OU 1.0000

Auburn 0.9200

As you can see, this week I am forecasting my predicted computer apex of 3.0000. I hereby declare that Auburn will not fall from here without a loss.

-----

Once again the politicking of ESPN and others has persuaded some to move Auburn ahead of OU n their ballots, although Auburn's win over Georgia was probably more of an incentive to change than any propaganda from ESPN. It is important to remember that unlike the computers, the pollsters don't care all that much how tough your schedule was as long as you've beaten a couple of ranked teams and play in a BCS conference. And the pollsters obviously have a margin of victory bias that sticks out like a sore thumb, considering OU lost votes relative to USC and Auburn while defeating two ranked opponents by smaller margins on the road while Auburn played just one game and USC played a much weaker schedule.

That's just the way it is. I've gotten to the point that I trust the consensus of the computers far more than the pollsters. They are biased against recent losses and tend to ignore overall strength of schedule in favor of the flavor of the moment. At this time, the flavor of the moment is Auburn.

Another bias that defies rational analysis is how the voters will not knock down an undefeated returning champion without a stretch of really poor play. Just kind of dawdle through your schedule, and win the big games impressively, and you are #1 for life. So for all intents and purposes USC will remain #1 in both polls until (if) they suffer a loss.

Once again OU lost votes to USC, and saw a large erosion of support toward Auburn. Here's how the AP and USA Today/ESPN ranking votes play out in terms of those two components of the BCS formula...

In the coaches' poll, things held a bit more firm, but the Sooners lost some noticeable ground. USC remained at 1514 points, while OU fell from 1452 to 1435, for a loss of 17 total voting points. Auburn was the prime beneficiary, gaining from 1416 to 1433 points this week. I bet you'd be shocked to learn that their gain was exactly what OU lost...

By the way, there are actually 10 total voter points in the coaches' poll that don't have all of USC, OU and Auburn ranked #1, #2 or #3. I have a sneaky suspicion that all of those votes are probably split between OU and Auburn.

So here is the USA Today/ESPN component:

USC = 1514/1525 = 0.9928 (unchanged)

OU = 1435/1525 = 0.9410 (down 0.0111 from last week)

AUB = 1433/1525 = 0.9397 (up 0.0111 from last week)

The media poll saw more pronounced movement than the coaches' poll, but at least the Sooners lost less ground to USC (despite impressively beating a better opponent). USC fell from 1611 to 1608 (-3), but OU fell from 1555 to 1536 (-19). The actual net change between the two was one vote less than the coache's poll, which surprises me a bit. Auburn jumped from 1512 to 1536 (+24), which means they gained two total points that didn't come from either OU or USC. They also moved into a poll dead heat for second in the poll.

Take another look at the numbers in both polls. That is evidence that there is some resistance to the ESPN campaign to corrupt the vote. It is pretty much the kind of poll movement I expected this week, or even less than I expected without ESPN interference. That just goes to show that these guys aren't somebody's puppets, but are voting what they believe, not what they are told.

So heres the calculation for the media poll component:

USC = 1608/1625 = 0.9895 (down 0.0018)

OU = 1536/1625 = 0.9452 (down 0.0117)

AUB = 1536/1625 = 0.9452 = (up 0.0148)

-----

Now that I've shown where those teams have moved this week, including estimating the computer ratings component, here's where it all goes together. You add the three components and divide by three:

THIS WEEK:

USC (0.9600 + 0.9928 + 0.9895)/3 = 2.9423/3 = 0.9808

OU (1.0000 + 0.9410 + 0.9452)/3 = 2.8862/3 = 0.9621

AUB (0.9200 + 0.9397 + 0.9452)/3 = 2.8049/3 = 0.9350

Last week:

USC 0.9847

OU 0.9664

AUB 0.9097

-----

So here's where all the hand-wringing has gotten us. USC fell by 0.0039, OU fell by 0.0043, and Auburn jumped a substantial 0.2503. OU is still pretty much on USC's heels at only 0.0187 behind, and Auburn is 0.0271 behind OU. Auburn's gains toward OU (and USC) came from all three components, 0.0400 from the computer component, 0.0223 from the net change in the coaches' poll component, and 0.0264 from the media poll component. That's an average movement of 0.0296, or roughly 3/4s of a whole ranking position in each poll on average, with the largest movement in the computer rating.

-----

Now is where the going starts to get really tough for Auburn. While they got their best news so far from the Georgia win, their next opponent Alabama is much closer to the mean average ranking of the teams that are being played by BCS teams this time of year, and Tennessee is more highly ranked, but not nearly as much above the mean as Georgia was, so their effect on the computer rankings won't be enough to lift them above where they are now, since OU sits solidly at #1 and USC plays nearly as tough a schedule as has a good rankings gap on Auburn right now. The wild card is the polls. And from where Auburn is now, they must convince roughly the pollsters to move them roughly 210 total voting points ahead of OU in just two games. OU's next opponent Baylor is somewhat below the average mean, but not precipitously. If OU has a big win over Baylor and Auburn struggles yet wins over Alabama, then they won't make an appreciable inroads into OU's lead. And while Tennessee will be better than OU's title game opponent, there is a much greater chance of Auburn being upset than OU, and all the pollsters will weigh their previous rankings based upon the performance of these two teams against those four opponents. Without a loss by either team, I view the change of 210 total voting points as basically unattainable, particularly becaause there are large ratings gaps between Auburn and the next two teams in the ratings that will preclude OU from dropping below third on any ballots without a loss.

If OU doesn't drop below third, the chances of Auburn getting past OU to the #2 spot are zero without calamity befalling OU or USC. And if USC falls, OU can afford to drop behind Auburn and still be in the Orange Bowl.

So once again, here's what I've been saying for weeks now. OU will participate in the Orange Bowl barring a loss in the next two games. And at this late date, even an ugly win or even two cannot keep them out. With the fall of Wisconsin, there aren't any unbeaten teams ranked high enough to scourge away the needed votes for OU to drop.

There you have it. First one to blink goes bye-bye. No blinky, no bye-bye for OU, and no prize for the Tigers without a USC loss.

-----

Texas should benefit from Wisconsin's loss by climbing to #5, although there is a possibility that Utah could briefly jump past them. I'm picking Texas for #5 behind Cal solidly at #4, with Utah next at #6, then Michigan at #7.

Beyond that, I just get bored. Oh, and that bad news I was saving for last? I lied. There is no bad news. Sorry.

[TigerinBham 1]

You can't blame them. They love Oklahoma as much as we love Auburn. If we all win out somebody is going to be very upset and rightly so. I just hope it ain't us

[stoic-one 1,549]

You can't blame them. They love Oklahoma as much as we love Auburn. If we all win out somebody is going to be very upset and rightly so. I just hope it ain't us 

122522[/snapback]

Yes, and that is too bad, for ONE reason only...I actually agree with his general assessment, and think that barring a loss in the top 2, he will be proven right. JMHO

Sucks, but realistically, he is probably right. Of course, OU did manage to lose to KSU last lear and I will continue to hold out hope that anything can happen on any given Saturday.

Either way - GO

One game at a time.

[rebdawg 5]

I really cannot argue with much of what he has written. Just proves we need a playoff.

By the way, the Big 12 only has three team D's ranked in the top 40 (OU #14, TX #16, Kansas #40). The state of Alabama has three (AU #1, Bama #8, & Troy #10).

[88Tiger 0]

...

Once again the politicking of ESPN and others has persuaded some to move Auburn ahead of OU n their ballots, although Auburn's win over Georgia was probably more of an incentive to change than any propaganda from ESPN...

...That is evidence that there is some resistance to the ESPN campaign to corrupt the vote. It is pretty much the kind of poll movement I expected this week, or even less than I expected without ESPN interference...

So heres the calculation for the media poll component:

What's his ESPN propoganda stuff???? Could it be that most of the ESPN guys who watch ALOT of NCAA football actually believe that AU is better than OU and maybe even USC...

In all honesty, I have been wondering what the love fest is with USC...I'm not convinced they are a clear #1, especailly given their close wins over mediocre opponents. I think a strong case coul dbe made for USC #3.

Anybody been to an USC board to see what they think about all this BCS stuff?

I'll bet you if we didn't start the year so early with the polls that we'd find AU right at the #1 slot if not in it.

[AUesquire 1]

I just got finished with a few posts over there, trying to add a little sanity to the board. One thing I've noticed is they are absolutely convinced there is a "Lovefest" going on with the media and Auburn. It's amazing to see the perspective other folks have about us. One guy was arguing about the top teams OU has played compared to AU's and said name one that is better than Texas. I said UGA would wipe the floor with Texas by two TD's. He asked(honestly)if Georgia had scored two TD's on anyone this year.

Uh....

[mcgufcm 4,107]

s'okay, folks'll realize the mistake when ou gets beat by usc in the orange bowl and lsu beats texas in the cotton... they'll say, "wow, the sec is really good. auburn should've been playing usc." personally, i think the ap should band together, vote us number one at the close of the year barring a loss, and stick it to the bcs just like last year. split the title and force the issue on purpose.

[WaReAgLe83 0]

One guy was arguing about the top teams OU has played compared to AU's and said name one that is better than Texas.  I said UGA would wipe the floor with Texas by two TD's.  He asked(honestly)if Georgia had scored two TD's on anyone this year.

Uh....

122551[/snapback]

You can tell him about the 45 points UGA hung on an LSU team that would be in contention for the SEC title again if not for a certain 4th-and-12 conversion.

[AU4Ever 0]

personally, i think the ap should band together, vote us number one at the close of the year barring a loss, and stick it to the bcs just like last year. split the title and force the issue on purpose.

122564[/snapback]

One of the many "tweaks" to the BCS after last year's debacle was that the AP and coaches poll couldn't go out on their own and vote a different team No1 from the one who won the Orange Bowl. The BCS got embarrassed because of what happened last year and didn't want it to happen again.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

the ap isn't tied to the bcs at all. not one bit. the bcs indepedently decided to use the ap of it's own volition. the coaches still have to vote for the bcs title winner, but the ap still gives it's own award.

[rebdawg 5]

One thing I've noticed is they are absolutely convinced there is a "Lovefest" going on with the media and Auburn.

There is. The reason being is that ESPN et al realize that all the formulas and human polls do not correctly identify who the best team is. . .

[Raven_tiger 5]

SC Message Board

...have not been too kind to us either. It will make beating either one all the sweeter...

[SouthLink02 8]

No need to mention that Cal is currently 4th and the highest ranked team that OU, AU, or USC have beaten or that if OU or AU were in the PAC they could be #3 and locked out of the BCS entirely.

I died laughing at that

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

Lol, I had the misfortune of living in Lawton Ok for a little bit and my sister is a Ok. State alumni.

OU fans are arrogant, self-centered, and believe themselves above everyone else. There is alot of comparison with them and Bama fans, matter of fact the two deserve each other. The Oklahoma media kisses their butt, every single person in the world in that state that hasn't touched a college campus loves them............ and don't be fooled by the props they are giving to Oklahoma State. The don't have one single ounce of respect for that University or its athletic programs and anything they say is self-serving and a lie if its good about state lol.

Pretty much if the media isn't 100% blowing sunshine up their butts, its a conspiracy. They will talk about how grand Switzer was and the class that was OU of the 70's and 80's, though they won't mention the gang rapes, shooting each other over cassette tapes, starting qb's dealing cocaine, and various other incidents. Then when Gibbs took over with them on probation, ended the crime, raised the graduation rates, what did they do......... vandalized the mans house.

Also don't let them pull this cosmopoliton attitude either. OU likes to think its uptown and trendy. A majority of the OU students are from small communities, and seriously they can make jokes about rednecks and the south but Oklahoma is right there in the thick of it when it comes to backwards rednecks. Having lived in both states, Oklahoma is alot more backwards.

They have fielded some good football teams (curious how many NC's they have though if they didn't play in the Big 8 of old though), but they aren't cosmo, they aren't good winners and even worse losers, and they want all the attention and praise they believe they deserve.

[JC Cool 0]

I found it interesting that he called Baylor, a 3-7 team, and average competion team equal to that of a 6-4 Bama.

[Ryan Sanders 123]

HAHA! Alabama would kill Baylor.

Anyway.. After all the sh*t I hear Oklahoma fans talk... I would rather play against them instead of USC. I know I really want to get even with USC, but beating Oklahoma would be about as good right now.

[DKW 86 7,439]

I still dont see us jumping OU or USC, unless they lose.

Our claim to legend will be the death of the BCS.

Killing the idiotic BCS would almost be worth it.

[WaReAgLe83 0]

It'll be small consolation to watch someone else benefit from a new system for the next few years...let's get the NC while/if we can!!

[AUTaxMan 0]

They also think the Adrian Peterson / KeJuan Jones tandem is much better than Carnell and Ronnie.

[JC Cool 0]

I'll be interested to see how their running game is next year when White is gone. Peterson benefits because of an awesome O-line and a Heisman QB as a threat. I'll be watching.