The lions roar 119 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I enjoyed this article: http://www.thewareaglereader.com/2014/08/what-was-the-probability-of-an-auburn-win-before-each-snap-of-the-2013-iron-bowl-now-we-know/#.U-6dbvldUnO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigerchris 243 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caleb1633 1,418 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Says a lot without saying anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eibua12 81 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Says a lot without saying anything this is how I walk out of meetings with zero deliverables , wait what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,549 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Says a lot without saying anything But of course. The guy's an economist. But then, CGM is pretty good at it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augolf1716 21,440 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 :OnTheCan: :sleeping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 :OnTheCan: :sleeping: Jenny is kind of old now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowrider 0 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 A football season is a living breathing thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FHeal 4 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Better to of stuck with the first model..... ... the one in the Tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURex 2,067 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Well, I understand what he is doing statistically. And I actually think the statistical odds, tracked like that for a game, is a pretty interesting and fun thing. It would be even more interesting if it were being displayed live on a web page that you could follow as the game progressed. As the author notes, the sample size of 9 years is too small to accurately account for rare occurrences in games -- like Saban making a stupid decision to try to kick a field goal from a mile away in adverse conditions, or a 109 yard runback of a missed field goal. And *that* is what will always prevent statistics from being perfect predictors of outcomes in football. Statistics deals in patterns and aggregated data. The anomalies get absorbed and minimized. But in the real world of live football games, anomalies change game outcomes -- sometimes. This was one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augolf1716 21,440 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 :OnTheCan: :sleeping: Jenny is kind of old now.... Not in my dreams!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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