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The Statistical Probability of Winning the Iron Bowl


The lions roar

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Well, I understand what he is doing statistically. And I actually think the statistical odds, tracked like that for a game, is a pretty interesting and fun thing. It would be even more interesting if it were being displayed live on a web page that you could follow as the game progressed.

As the author notes, the sample size of 9 years is too small to accurately account for rare occurrences in games -- like Saban making a stupid decision to try to kick a field goal from a mile away in adverse conditions, or a 109 yard runback of a missed field goal.

And *that* is what will always prevent statistics from being perfect predictors of outcomes in football. Statistics deals in patterns and aggregated data. The anomalies get absorbed and minimized. But in the real world of live football games, anomalies change game outcomes -- sometimes. This was one of those times.

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