JJ vs UL - INT #1 Analysis

[AUEngineer2016 407]

I got a pretty good response from a previous diagnosis I did in another thread,so he we go again. This time, I decided to look at Jeremy's first interception against Louisville. Here is the play in question:

Auburn started the play with 3 recievers to the field and only 1 to the boundry, as well has having the RB line up on the field side. Louisville responded by lining up in off coverage, meaning their corners were lined up 10 yards off the recievers, and with 2 safeties over the top. They appear to be in a modified nickle formation, where their 2 ends are standing rather than in a 3 point stance. The DT's are also lined up wide, but both MLB's are pulled in tight to compensate.

Pre-snap, Gus and Rhett would've looked at this formation and seen that there were 6 defenders in the box and they had only 5 blockers, meaning a running play is most likely out unless they were to try and freeze one of the DL with an option play, however this also meant that there should've been a mismatch somewhere else. Surely enough, Duke was lined up furthest inside on the field side without a defender over the top. They expected either a LB to jump out and cover him or a Safety to rotate down and pick him up, but either scenario tends to favor the WR.

Here is a diagram of the play:

So what actually happened on the play is that Duke got matched up 1-on-1 with a MLB, but the pass wasn't open. JJ went down his progression, and assumed that because he had seen man coverage on Duke that the defense was playing man, when in reality they were playing a Cover 2 Drop zone coverage with a man-to-man defender isolated on Duke. I believe the Bobby P. and his defensive coordinator used this defensive alignment to try and confuse Johnson. I think that they took a gamble and betted that he'd look at Duke first, make a decision about the coverage from that read, and move on to a different progression.

It worked. Here is the pass from another (wider) angle:

Notice that Johnson never takes his eyes off of the right side. Gus can't believe it:

Finally, here is an angle from the Sky Cam:

Johnson's throwing motion on this play is erratic, and atypical of his usual throwing motion, an indication that he was trying to put the ball on a wire and force it to the reciever. If Auburn expects to compete for a championship this year, Johnson is going to have to get better at working through his progressions and not forcing the ball into coverage.

[aujeff11 6,243]

Yes. I did want another thread with interception analysis!

Que the kool aid man!

[McLoofus 35,182]

Really enjoying your posts, Engineer. Please do as many of these as you can. I've never seen a coverage diagram like that before. Very helpful for ignorant dummies like me.

One question: does it also look like maybe JJ was expecting the receiver to do more of a hard curl there? Not that it would have magically made that a good decision and good pass, but it might have made it appear less... bad.

Hopefully there will be some good plays to diagram as the season goes on, also.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Good job. You say Duke wasn't open but that matchup with the LB, at the 10 yard line going in, is one that Duke will win more times than not.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Good job. You say Duke wasn't open but that matchup with the LB, at the 10 yard line going in, is one that Duke will win more times than not.

Pre-snap it looked as though Duke would not be open. He pre-determined the progression based on alignment.

Based on the actual coverage Duke would likely have scored. Wondering if Johnson has had it beat into his head not to force it to Duke. If so, please re-set the default.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Throw the ball away. We were in Carlson's field goal range.

[WinForAuburn 128]

Thanks for the work! OP, can you anayze JJ's throwing motion at all? In that bottom GIF, he looks really really awkward to me.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Good job. You say Duke wasn't open but that matchup with the LB, at the 10 yard line going in, is one that Duke will win more times than not.

Pre-snap it looked as though Duke would not be open. He pre-determined the progression based on alignment.

Based on the actual coverage Duke would likely have scored. Wondering if Johnson has had it beat into his head not to force it to Duke. If so, please re-set the default.

No way Duke scores on that play against 2 deep coverage.

In fact, Duke is running a clearing route. You've got a smash concept to the field, and I believe Jeremy threw to the (would be) primary receiver against what he thought was man coverage. Like Engineer said, Jeremy simply read the defense wrong. Poor decision and poor mechanics.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Good job. You say Duke wasn't open but that matchup with the LB, at the 10 yard line going in, is one that Duke will win more times than not.

Pre-snap it looked as though Duke would not be open. He pre-determined the progression based on alignment.

Based on the actual coverage Duke would likely have scored. Wondering if Johnson has had it beat into his head not to force it to Duke. If so, please re-set the default.

I hear you. Even if Duke is eliminated from the equation and you are left with the balance, you still have the "run it" or "throw it away" options. So absent a Duke pass, a run probably would have been the best decision in this case. But as I mentioned in one of these threads, all of these decisions are correctable and I am sure they have had JJ in the film room all week going over all of the options.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Thanks for the work! OP, can you anayze JJ's throwing motion at all? In that bottom GIF, he looks really really awkward to me.

To my uneducated eye, it appears that he extends his plant (left) foot too far forward so that he can't get over it to step into the throw. Very little bend in that knee. When his back (right) foot comes forward, it looks like his weight is temporarily unsupported because he's behind his plant foot and his back foot isn't on the ground.

[WarNole 141]

Thanks for the diagram of the pass routes and coverage.

Very informative.

[1TexasTiger 55]

I don't think that is correct. If the Linebacker has man coverage on Duke then he completely failed because he never got within 5 yards of him. Plus that would leave the running back completely uncovered.

That looks like a Tampa 2 coverage out of Nickle.

Here is why:

The corners have the flat to curl responsibility. (Exactly as shown)

The Will and the Nickle played the in/slants routes. (Exactly as shown)

Watch the pre-snap movement by the FS. He walks into a head up alignment on Duke, but moves away from him after the snap into his deep half.

The SS takes his deep half but recognizes no one is threatening deep on his side and moves toward the deep threat.

What tells me this is Tampa 2 is the middle linebacker lined up directly over the ball which was on the hash and ran straight down the hash. He did not follow the man.

There should have been a delayed route given the running back if no one blitzes. The running back was blocking air. We had 6 on 4 up front and 7 on 4 in the defensive back field. Defense won, great call.

[1TexasTiger 55]

Any way it goes Jeremy would have been throwing a 50/50 ball. We were outnumbered. That was a well coached and disciplined play. No one over played there zone. This whole game of football is a numbers game and the defense got us on that one.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Good job. You say Duke wasn't open but that matchup with the LB, at the 10 yard line going in, is one that Duke will win more times than not.

Pre-snap it looked as though Duke would not be open. He pre-determined the progression based on alignment.

Based on the actual coverage Duke would likely have scored. Wondering if Johnson has had it beat into his head not to force it to Duke. If so, please re-set the default.

No way Duke scores on that play against 2 deep coverage.

In fact, Duke is running a clearing route. You've got a smash concept to the field, and I believe Jeremy threw to the (would be) primary receiver against what he thought was man coverage. Like Engineer said, Jeremy simply read the defense wrong. Poor decision and poor mechanics.

Way

But running it or throwing it away would have been the safest and best options in this particular case.

[AU-24 3,103]

Just wanted to say THANKS! Awesome stuff, and we really appreciate all the time and effort you put into this!!

[wde1968 262]

The first two ints Duke was open. On the second one he had 2 steps on the db crossing the field at the 45. However, JJ was going deep from the snap.

[AUEngineer2016 407]

I don't think that is correct. If the Linebacker has man coverage on Duke then he completely failed because he never got within 5 yards of him. Plus that would leave the running back completely uncovered.

That looks like a Tampa 2 coverage out of Nickle.

Here is why:

The corners have the flat to curl responsibility. (Exactly as shown)

The Will and the Nickle played the in/slants routes. (Exactly as shown)

Watch the pre-snap movement by the FS. He walks into a head up alignment on Duke, but moves away from him after the snap into his deep half.

The SS takes his deep half but recognizes no one is threatening deep on his side and moves toward the deep threat.

What tells me this is Tampa 2 is the middle linebacker lined up directly over the ball which was on the hash and ran straight down the hash. He did not follow the man.

There should have been a delayed route given the running back if no one blitzes. The running back was blocking air. We had 6 on 4 up front and 7 on 4 in the defensive back field. Defense won, great call.

The way that the MLB plays it, it looks like it could be either. He could be man-to-man with Duke or he could be covering Duke in the center zone on a Tampa 2. For those who don't know, here is a diagram of the Tampa 2 defense (although here it is shown being run out of a 4-3 base configuration):

What makes me think that the MLB is in man is the way that he sprints after Duke. If he were simply in a zone, his eyes would be in the backfield (just as all the other players in a zone are), but he specifically turns and looks at Duke as he runs with him to make sure that he stays with him. If they were running a Tampa 2 and the MLB was in a zone in the middle of the field, I believe UL actually caught a break with the MLB not looking in the backfield as it worked to confuse JJ as to what type of coverage the defense was running. However, with that said, I still believe that he was running an iso-coverage on Duke.

Leaving the running back uncovered wouldn't have mattered in this situation because they were running primarily a zone coverage. Yes, JJ would have had a dump-off pass to the RB if he had run a route, but that pass would've been in front of the zone, meaning they could (hypothetically) see it and tackle him before he gained any significant yards. Remember that this was 3rd and 12 - a dump off pass doesn't get the first down and UL forces a field goal.

I think that Petrino recognized that the biggest threat in the passing game was a pass to Duke, and rather than having one extra zone, he chose to put a man on Duke so that he wouldn't be able to simply find a hole in the zone coverage. Also remember that the LB wasn't on an island with his coverage - he didn't have to be on top of Duke because he had coverage help from those in the zones.

[RunInRed 16,433]

Great post!

[Shady Hollow AU 64]

These threads are great, I'm learning.

Thanks for taking the time.

[russnagel1 26]

Double thumbs up, great post.

[1TexasTiger 55]

I don't think that is correct. If the Linebacker has man coverage on Duke then he completely failed because he never got within 5 yards of him. Plus that would leave the running back completely uncovered.

That looks like a Tampa 2 coverage out of Nickle.

Here is why:

The corners have the flat to curl responsibility. (Exactly as shown)

The Will and the Nickle played the in/slants routes. (Exactly as shown)

Watch the pre-snap movement by the FS. He walks into a head up alignment on Duke, but moves away from him after the snap into his deep half.

The SS takes his deep half but recognizes no one is threatening deep on his side and moves toward the deep threat.

What tells me this is Tampa 2 is the middle linebacker lined up directly over the ball which was on the hash and ran straight down the hash. He did not follow the man.

There should have been a delayed route given the running back if no one blitzes. The running back was blocking air. We had 6 on 4 up front and 7 on 4 in the defensive back field. Defense won, great call.

The way that the MLB plays it, it looks like it could be either. He could be man-to-man with Duke or he could be covering Duke in the center zone on a Tampa 2. For those who don't know, here is a diagram of the Tampa 2 defense (although here it is shown being run out of a 4-3 base configuration):

What makes me think that the MLB is in man is the way that he sprints after Duke. If he were simply in a zone, his eyes would be in the backfield (just as all the other players in a zone are), but he specifically turns and looks at Duke as he runs with him to make sure that he stays with him. If they were running a Tampa 2 and the MLB was in a zone in the middle of the field, I believe UL actually caught a break with the MLB not looking in the backfield as it worked to confuse JJ as to what type of coverage the defense was running. However, with that said, I still believe that he was running an iso-coverage on Duke.

Leaving the running back uncovered wouldn't have mattered in this situation because they were running primarily a zone coverage. Yes, JJ would have had a dump-off pass to the RB if he had run a route, but that pass would've been in front of the zone, meaning they could (hypothetically) see it and tackle him before he gained any significant yards. Remember that this was 3rd and 12 - a dump off pass doesn't get the first down and UL forces a field goal.

I think that Petrino recognized that the biggest threat in the passing game was a pass to Duke, and rather than having one extra zone, he chose to put a man on Duke so that he wouldn't be able to simply find a hole in the zone coverage. Also remember that the LB wasn't on an island with his coverage - he didn't have to be on top of Duke because he had coverage help from those in the zones.

I agree in part. In zone you play landmarks. In the Tampa 2 the mike's responsibility is the "deep of the 3 receiver." I figure you know this but for those who don't: The backers and secondary count the receivers, tights, and running backs 1,2,3 from outside inward. Duke would have been the 3 and therefore the responsibility of the mike defender. With the Tampa 2 call he turns and runs to cover the middle seam.

The hash marks are 18'6" apart. Notice the distance between the mike and duke is 5+ yards. You don't play man coverage from 5 yards away. We tried it last year. It didn't work (I kid). Secondly, when covering man you always force your receiver to the help. Because he had over the top help from the safeties he would have played with an underneath leverage sandwiching the receiver. Instead he stayed on top of him and played his landmark. Notice you said the way he sprinted "after" duke. Actually he sprinted before Duke. The goal is to force everything shallow.

The option route would have forced the underneath throw because that's what it is designed to do. Plus, if your back can break a tackle then he can gain some yards. That was Roc at RB. He could have broken a tackle. Either way, 3 points is much better than an int. Take what the defense gives you. I love our offense but my only gripe is that the route designs for our receivers are often basic.

[1TexasTiger 55]

Definitely a great discussion piece. Cuddos Engineer!!!

[McLoofus 35,182]

Cube's analysis starts at 1:55 (but some great stuff on the DL before that)

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/09/alcom_film_room_why_its_not_ti.html

[AURealist 2,185]

Great post by all who contributed.

From skycam angle, I can't believe JJ threw that ball.

There were more pass attempts when JJ rushed his throw and his body mechanics were off. Luckily, he's got a powerful arm. I wonder why he feels so rushed? I thought he was getting pretty good protection a couple of times and he rolled out, anyway...

[AuburnNTexas 7,154]

Any way it goes Jeremy would have been throwing a 50/50 ball. We were outnumbered. That was a well coached and disciplined play. No one over played there zone. This whole game of football is a numbers game and the defense got us on that one.

Linebacker never left the middle the safety valve is RB leaking out. If JJ takes the safety valve he picks up good yardage as linebacker was inside and db's were to deep to initially help on RB. Problem was that JJ initially mis-read Defense give Defense credit for that it was a good call but next issue is JJ locked in where he was going with the ball never went through a progression or noticed receiver was heavily covered. He may not get first down but would have made FG easier if he dumps to rb.