The 'Trump stock market'

[homersapien 11,419]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/column-the-stock-market-hates-donald-trumps-policies/

Column: The stock market hates Trump’s economic policies

 

excerpt:

The stock market has risen close to 10 percent since the election (but has fallen about a percent between Jan. 30 and 31). How is a 10 percent rally a negative statement on President Trump’s policy? The government is going to increase corporate profits almost 15 percent by giving them taxpayer money. The market’s evaluation of the rest of the looming policies (other than corporate tax cuts) is negative 5 percent. Here is the summary:

+15%    Value of taking your money and giving it to companies
– 5%       Impact of all other Trump policies

—–
+10%    Total

The stock market is giving President Trump’s policies, outside of the corporate tax cut, a negative grade. The stock market’s message is clear: Taking your money and giving it to companies through lower taxes is good for the companies and good for the stock market. All the other Trump actions are hurting the U.S. economy and company profits.

In broad strokes, the stock market estimates for every $3 the Trump plans give to companies in taxes, $1 is being destroyed by other actions.

Read the full article: 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/column-the-stock-market-hates-donald-trumps-policies/

[homersapien 11,419]

So, as anyone reallocated before or since the election?

I haven't and don't plan to.  72% equities

[icanthearyou 4,463]

11 minutes ago, homersapien said:

So, as anyone reallocated before or since the election?

I haven't and don't plan to.  72% equities

Smart.

[homersapien 11,419]

21 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

Smart.

Well, smarter than a chicken I suppose.

You may recall one of the 'random' experiments in which a chicken was allowed to pick stocks and it outperformed the professional stock investors selected portfolios.  So, everytime I start thinking of ways to profit on what I anticipate the market is going to do, my wife tells me:

"Your problem is you think you're are smarter than a chicken."

[icanthearyou 4,463]

20 hours ago, homersapien said:

Well, smarter than a chicken I suppose.

You may recall one of the "random" experiments in which a chicken was allowed to pick stocks and it outperformed the professional stock investors selected portfolios.  So, everytime I start thinking of ways to profit on what I anticipate the market is going to do, my wife tells me:

"Your problem is you think you're are smarter than a chicken."

I am confident that you are just as intelligent the average chicken.

[homersapien 11,419]

43 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

I am confident that you are just as intelligent the average chicken.

Thanks!

[SaltyTiger 7,840]

5 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Thanks!

He did say average Homie. Many chickens are above average.

[maxwere 82]

Quote

Taking your money and giving it to companies

How is profit of a company I don't own or work for 'my' money again?  I had no idea.  I'm outraged.  Harvard Business School Econ professor, ladies and gentlemen.

[homersapien 11,419]

44 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

He did say average Homie. Many chickens are above average.

Along with me!

[homersapien 11,419]

10 minutes ago, maxwere said:

How is profit of a company I don't own or work for 'my' money again?  I had no idea.  I'm outraged.  Harvard Business School Econ professor, ladies and gentlemen.

 You need to point out the statement you are referring to.

[icanthearyou 4,463]

4 minutes ago, maxwere said:

How is profit of a company I don't own or work for 'my' money again?  I had no idea.  I'm outraged.  Harvard Business School Econ professor, ladies and gentlemen.

Perhaps it has something to do with shifting the tax burden?  Perhaps the idea of taxing business is not realistic to begin with?  Perhaps the whole idea of a business as an entity with individual rights is conceptually flawed?

Perhaps, we aren't looking at this in realistic terms?  Maybe, we should be talking about taxing capital and labor instead of, corporations or individuals?

[maxwere 82]

22 hours ago, homersapien said:

So, as anyone reallocated before or since the election?

I haven't and don't plan to.  72% equities

If you do decide to lower that percentage or simply focus on the 28%, pay close attention to the term structure of the fixed market.  Long term bonds could take as big a bath as equities.  As far as the bond markets go, the status quo is encouraging retail investors to pick med/long and high credit quality.  I suspect in the short term credit isn't this risk this go around, but duration.

As far as outlook goes I'd follow institutional investors and tune everything else out.  eg Apple has $200b in cash.  Seem to hear similar things from PIMCO and others.  Smart money is waiting on a shoe to drop.

This was my target Oct1... stayed the course as I don't think a president has a lot to do with long term: 10% cash, 10% physical metals, 5% active traded stuff, 10% FDIC backed stuff, 40% <2 duration bonds/ST, 10% Eqs, 15% physical real estate.

[maxwere 82]

13 minutes ago, homersapien said:

 You need to point out the statement you are referring to.

Quote

The immediate impact of cutting taxes is not to create wealth, but rather to take money from future taxpayers and give it to companies.

...he must be assuming all govt spending obligations are fixed.  That neocons in power won't cut spending... may be right.

[maxwere 82]

19 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

Perhaps it has something to do with shifting the tax burden?  Perhaps the idea of taxing business is not realistic to begin with?  Perhaps the whole idea of a business as an entity with individual rights is conceptually flawed?

Perhaps, we aren't looking at this in realistic terms?  Maybe, we should be talking about taxing capital and labor instead of, corporations or individuals?

Maybe businesses are just private property?  Maybe we do tax capital?  Maybe its called monetary policy and effective negative interest rates?  Maybe corporate tax actually increases the cost of products we buy and is really a pass through to consumers?  Maybe the public would get really pissed off if they knew the money the federal govt really stole from them apart from their with holdings?

[icanthearyou 4,463]

23 hours ago, maxwere said:

Maybe businesses are just private property?  Maybe we do tax capital?  Maybe its called monetary policy and effective negative interest rates?  Maybe corporate tax actually increases the cost of products we buy and is really a pass through to consumers?  Maybe the public would get really pissed off if they knew the money the federal govt really stole from them apart from their with holdings?

Hardly.  Capital has many forms.  That isn't the question.  The question is how.  Is it fair, beneficial.  

I'm not sure what you are suggesting.