Moore or Jones?

[AUFAN78 3,911]

57 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Wrong forum.

Huh?

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

1 hour ago, Bigbens42 said:

A dem, a freaking DEM, wins in Alabama. Only Bannon and Trump could have caused this. I'm so proud of my state tonight. So proud of the conservatives that held themselves to a higher standard. So proud of Doug, who worked his ass off. 

First off I just want to say that I was wrong. I'm not upset about that. I'm sure quite a few Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief right now that Moore didn't win.

Secondly, ............. if you think this was about Trump then you are way off. Trump didn't even campaign for Moore. The closest he came was going to Pensacola and told Alabama voters to vote for Moore to keep the seat.  His support of Moore was strictly tied to keeping the seat. I don't think Trump's token support was much a factor for Alabama voters.

Trump initially supported Luther Strange and voters in Alabama didn't go along with Trump on that either. I don't really see how you can blame Trump for Moore's loss. 

The deck was stacked in Jones's favor. Quite frankly, I'm shocked Moore almost pulled it out. Even though I predicted Moore would win, I wasn't ruling out a loss. It was the perfect storm for Democrats. Jones needed the Obama fever type turnout for the black vote in Alabama and he got that. 

What doomed Moore were the number of write ins. There were over 22,000 write ins. If Moore had gotten the write in votes then he pulls this out. There were too many moderates Republicans that did write ins. Moore hemorrhaged too many votes that opted for a write in. Make no mistake, those write ins would have went to a Republican had it not been Roy Moore as the nominee.Write ins were mostly anti-Moore, they weren't anti-Jones.

Doug Jones won fair and square. No disputing that. Congrats to Doug Jones.

Edit: votes are still being counted and the numbers have changed, so I've edited the amount of write in votes.

[AUFAN78 3,911]

Congrats to Doug. As an advocate for inner city plight, my hope is he gives it much more than lip service. It is literally in his hands. 

BTW, don't think Roy would have done a damn thing for the cause.

#innercityhope

[CR 2,446]

Roy can't even lose gracefully. Not a surprise.

[homersapien 11,392]

24 minutes ago, AUFAN78 said:

Huh?

WRONG FORUM!!!!

[DKW 86 7,429]

1 hour ago, Bigbens42 said:

 

That is just sick...AND FUNNY AS HELL...LMAO!

[tigeraddikt 1,611]

Dang, GOP you just handed a Senate seat to a Dem. in ALABAMA. This ain't 1950. Turns out the Moore allegations were timed pretty well.

[AUDub 11,154]

3 minutes ago, tigeraddikt said:

Shelby and the Write-Inners handed this one to Jones. Dang, GOP you just handed a Senate seat to a Dem. in ALABAMA. This ain't 1950. Turns out the Moore allegations were timed pretty well.

Steve Bannon is a genius. Losing a GOP seat in Alabama takes effort. 

[auburnphan 6,050]

5 minutes ago, tigeraddikt said:

Shelby and the Write-Inners handed this one to Jones. Dang, GOP you just handed a Senate seat to a Dem. in ALABAMA. This ain't 1950. Turns out the Moore allegations were timed pretty well.

direct quote from the kkk and and closet racists, proudtigers buddy I assume.   Values over party, have fun in hell for doing otherwise.

[alexava 6,973]

I was told by a couple of Huntsville voters they have never seen so many black people show up to vote even when Obama was on the ballot. I think it was the perfect storm. The slavery comment , the reference to 1965 I think he rattled the cage and woke up the black votes. The wapo, his ridiculous record of dismissals. Volunteers have worked relentlessly for Doug up here in north Alabama. It all mattered. 

[HVAU 673]

28 minutes ago, alexava said:

I was told by a couple of Huntsville voters they have never seen so many black people show up to vote even when Obama was on the ballot. I think it was the perfect storm. The slavery comment , the reference to 1965 I think he rattled the cage and woke up the black votes. The wapo, his ridiculous record of dismissals. Volunteers have worked relentlessly for Doug up here in north Alabama. It all mattered. 

I worked very briefly to bring coffee and doughnuts to a North Huntsville polling place today.  The anecdotal reports I heard were that the turnout was similar to Obama 2008.  

[DKW 86 7,429]

Perusing the Stats. Jones won Educated, HS+ & B&W Voters, Both Urban and Rural Blacks. He won Less Educated Urban Whites as well. He obviously took the cities and larger counties by YUGE margins. Oddly the Sex allegations made a difference, but not as much as you would think. Mostly, people were aware of his crazy statements over the years. 

[AUDub 11,154]

1 hour ago, DKW 86 said:

Perusing the Stats. Jones won Educated, HS+ & B&W Voters, Both Urban and Rural Blacks. He won Less Educated Urban Whites as well. He obviously took the cities and larger counties by YUGE margins. Oddly the Sex allegations made a difference, but not as much as you would think. Mostly, people were aware of his crazy statements over the years. 

David French has been hammering this point over the last few days, and he's right to. Moore was unqualified long before these allegations came to light. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

5 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

David French has been hammering this point over the last few days, and he's right to. Moore was unqualified long before these allegations came to light. 

That's the thing. Moore had already twice proven himself incapable of public service and showed up at a speaking engagement wearing a leather vest, a cowboy hat and a gun... and then he somehow went downhill from there.

And people were arguing over the timeline on things written in a girl's yearbook? And the vote was somewhat close? It's scary how good the GOP is at playing this game. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

This wasn't about Trump.  Trump backed Luther Strange and already lost.  Even though he won the state himself by 28 points.

It's not about black/brown/Democrat/urban turnout.  Yes it was exceptional.  But even with this Herculean get out the vote effort, he only won by about 1.5%  Yes, he needed almost all those votes, but no it wasn't what the election turned on.

This was about Roy Moore and the state's conservative voters finally having enough.  The GOP put forth and stuck by an odious candidate and a significant segment of Republicans said this was a bridge too far.  There are limits.  There are at least some standards. 

Jones won by about 21,000 votes.  There were over 22,000 write-ins.  I'll guarantee you none of those write-ins were people that normally vote Democrat.  There were probably a handful of diehard Libertarians.  But I'm guessing somewhere around 98% of those write-ins were people who normally vote Republican.  Then there were the Republicans who chose to stay home.  They were so disgusted with the choice they didn't even bother to write someone in.  And finally there were some moderate/centrists who vote Republican in most elections who voted for Jones.  These conservatives were the story of the election.  You could have put almost any other candidate up there on the Republican side and won this race comfortably.  Put forth a good candidate and it's a cakewalk even with Jones's turnout.

The state's conservative voters sent a message last night, not just to the state GOP, but to the wacko wing of the party base who backed this awful horse to begin with, then stuck with him after the scandal erupted.  We're done being automatic for you.  Do better.

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Some of The state's sane conservative voters sent a message last night, not just to the state GOP, but to the wacko wing of the party base who backed this awful horse to begin with, then stuck with him after the scandal erupted.  We're done being automatic for you.  Do better.

FIFY

[TitanTiger 20,499]

5 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

FIFY

While this is true, it was a significant portion of conservatives.  Look at it this way:  The closest Alabama Senate race in the last 20 years was a 19 point victory for the Republican.  The last four AL Senate races, not counting 2014 where Sessions ran unopposed, were won by the Republican by an average of 31 points. 

If we just took the worst showing of 19% and put it on the 1.3 million votes cast last night, that would have been a margin of 247,000 votes for the Republican.  That's how big of a swing this was.  It wasn't just a few thousand voters or even tens of thousands.  It was well into six figures the number of Republicans who chose not to back their party's candidate last night.  

[Barnacle 9,064]

I'm more relieved than anything. Dodged a bullet. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

4 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

While this is true, it was a significant portion of conservatives.  Look at it this way:  The closest Alabama Senate race in the last 20 years was a 19 point victory for the Republican.  The last four AL Senate races, not counting 2014 where Sessions ran unopposed, were won by the Republican by an average of 31 points. 

If we just took the worst showing of 19% and put it on the 1.3 million votes cast last night, that would have been a margin of 247,000 votes for the Republican.  That's how big of a swing this was.  It wasn't just a few thousand voters or even tens of thousands.  It was well into six figures the number of Republicans who chose not to back their party's candidate last night.  

I stand corrected. That is a significant number.

Also, I shouldn't have isolated one small part of your post. It's a quality post. 

[Barnacle 9,064]

I agree with you, @TitanTiger. Politics in general has become too much like sport. I don't see people being as interested in truth, logic, reason, or compromise as much as I see people treating politics much like they do football in this state. People don't seem to be interested in finding common ground with each other. Instead, people assume the worst about others based upon their political affiliation, attribute something sinister to every move the other side makes, and then use all of it to justify supporting their team at all costs. 

Yesterday was a deviation from that pattern. I think it does show that people have a line somewhere that they aren't willing to cross. Its actually really encouraging. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

Weeding through some of CNN's exit poll data, most of it is what you'd expect to see in terms of demographics and views and who they voted for.  But I found this nugget interesting:

Under "Abortion should be illegal in all cases", those voters only went 80-18 for Moore.  Eighteen percent of diehard pro-lifers who give zero exceptions for abortion voted for Jones.  And among those who say "Abortion should be illegal in most cases", Moore only won those 64-34.  These voters are normally a slam dunk for a pro-life candidate running against a fervently pro-choice one like Jones.  I don't know what percentage of the electorate in AL holds the "in all cases" view, but it should tell you just how conflicted and troubled even the most ardent religious and social conservatives were over Roy Moore.

[AUDub 11,154]

57 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

This wasn't about Trump.  Trump backed Luther Strange and already lost.  Even though he won the state himself by 28 points.

It's not about black/brown/Democrat/urban turnout.  Yes it was exceptional.  But even with this Herculean get out the vote effort, he only won by about 1.5%  Yes, he needed almost all those votes, but no it wasn't what the election turned on.

This was about Roy Moore and the state's conservative voters finally having enough.  The GOP put forth and stuck by an odious candidate and a significant segment of Republicans said this was a bridge too far.  There are limits.  There are at least some standards. 

Jones won by about 21,000 votes.  There were over 22,000 write-ins.  I'll guarantee you none of those write-ins were people that normally vote Democrat.  There were probably a handful of diehard Libertarians.  But I'm guessing somewhere around 98% of those write-ins were people who normally vote Republican.  Then there were the Republicans who chose to stay home.  They were so disgusted with the choice they didn't even bother to write someone in.  And finally there were some moderate/centrists who vote Republican in most elections who voted for Jones.  These conservatives were the story of the election.  You could have put almost any other candidate up there on the Republican side and won this race comfortably.  Put forth a good candidate and it's a cakewalk even with Jones's turnout.

The state's conservative voters sent a message last night, not just to the state GOP, but to the wacko wing of the party base who backed this awful horse to begin with, then stuck with him after the scandal erupted.  We're done being automatic for you.  Do better.

I said last night how proud I am of the conservatives in this state that held themselves to a higher standard. They played the biggest role of the bunch.

That being said, I wouldn't discount the effect Trump is having, both nationwide and here. This was a twenty-five to thirty point swing(!) and not all of that can be attributed to Moore. I think Silver has it right that about ten points of that swing can be attributed to the national political environment, which stems from our president. Trump's approval/disapproval rating among participants, 48/48, is indicative of that.

The stars had to align for Doug to pull this out, but the combination of conservatives that said no mo(o)re, Moore's prior troubles, the national environment and the recent allegations opened the door. Doug had to campaign like a madman to pull it out, but did so and won as a result.

[Barnacle 9,064]

10 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

I said last night how proud I am of the conservatives in this state that held themselves to a higher standard. They played the biggest role of the bunch.

That being said, I wouldn't discount the effect Trump is having, both nationwide and here. This was a twenty-five to thirty point swing(!) and not all of that can be attributed to Moore. I think Silver has it right that about ten points of that swing can be attributed to the national political environment, which stems from our president. Trump's approval/disapproval rating among participants, 48/48, is indicative of that.

The stars had to align for Doug to pull this out, but the combination of conservatives that said no mo(o)re, Moore's prior troubles, the national environment and the recent allegations opened the door. Doug had to campaign like a madman to do it, but did so and won as a result.

I definitely think there was an element of wanting to elect some one who's relate-able, who doesn't speak without thinking first. Someone they could associate with without fear that they are about to do or say something ridiculous. People want to like the person they are voting for. 

Even for many people that I know who voted for Trump, and some who still support him bemoan his behavior. 

I'm fairly certain that Moore was planning on riding a stallion onto the stage last night to give his acceptance speech. I'm sure, that had to be in the back of voters' minds. 

[AU64 10,122]

Alabama republicans got what they deserved....which was a lost Senate seat.   They had a reasonable candidate in Strange and went for the outlaw candidate.......the same folks I guess who keep hoping we will hire Briles or Petrino. 

[tigeraddikt 1,611]

9 hours ago, auburnphan said:

direct quote from the kkk and and closet racists, proudtigers buddy I assume.   Values over party, have fun in hell for doing otherwise.

I forgive you for your mean-spirited attack.