Moore or Jones?

[TitanTiger 20,499]

9 minutes ago, alexava said:

"He effectively cites high turnout in black areas as evidence of fraud!"

 

His proclamation that America was greatest during slavery really helped this turnout.

Shorter Moore:  "Too many brown people voted."

[Barnacle 9,064]

2 hours ago, Bigbens42 said:

 

It won't get to this point, but cross-examination of this expert would be fascinating. 

[DKW 86 7,429]

 

Quote

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5217155/Roy-Moore-files-lawsuit-block-Alabama-Senate-result.html

Accused child molester Roy Moore sues over Alabama loss as he charges voter fraud cost him a U.S. Senate seat and demands a NEW election

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5217155/Roy-Moore-files-lawsuit-block-Alabama-Senate-result.html#ixzz52a36IPmp 
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 

"'All I know is it was a renowned independent expert that he went before, and took the polygraph test, and – not surprising to anyone who knows Judge Moore – he completely passed it,' Porter said on CNN."

I worked for a company not that long ago that polygraphed everything that moved. I can tell you with a straight face dont ever trust anything on a polygraph. You can get truthful answers on them. But you can also get 100% crap. We had one associate steal $20K in stock and pass 3 polygraphs but then later admitted it when his co-conspirators finally fessed up and all three were found in possession of the stock.  We also had a prescription drug seller on staff. Half the staff had bought from her and admitted it. She then had the rest of the staff dropping ludes and passing with flying colors. She passed polygraphs like old farts pass gas: all the time and enjoying the hell out of it. We later found out that she had been selling ludes to the prehires too. 

LATE ADD: The guy who stole the stock, passed another set of polygraphs and was rehired by another division of the same company. The guy who busted him just happened to visit his new workplace. He had started calling himself by his middle name. Dont even ask what he did about his SSN. I have no clue. But in talking about this with a coworker, I was asked if i knew he had gotten rehired...I did not. KID YOU NOT. 

DKW: "They ought to print polygraphs on toilet paper so you can actually find them useful for something." 

[homersapien 11,392]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

The only man on the planet that can make Trump seem erudite and wise.

  That makes my head hurt to consider.  

[homersapien 11,392]

17 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

 

"'All I know is it was a renowned independent expert that he went before, and took the polygraph test, and – not surprising to anyone who knows Judge Moore – he completely passed it,' Porter said on CNN."

I worked for a company not that long ago that polygraphed everything that moved. I can tell you with a straight face dont ever trust anything on a polygraph. You can get truthful answers on them. But you can also get 100% crap. We had one associate steal $20K in stock and pass 3 polygraphs but then later admitted it when his co-conspirators finally fessed up and all three were found in possession of the stock.  We also had a prescription drug seller on staff. Half the staff had bought from her and admitted it. She then had the rest of the staff dropping ludes and passing with flying colors. She passed polygraphs like old farts pass gas: all the time and enjoying the hell out of it. We later found out that she had been selling ludes to the prehires too. 
 

DKW: "They ought to print polygraphs on toilet paper so you can actually find them useful for something." 

I'm no expert, but I would guess that psychopaths would be good at beating them.

[AUDub 11,153]

Denied. 

 

[DKW 86 7,429]

23 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I'm no expert, but I would guess that psychopaths would be good at beating them.

Oh yes. There is good reason why the results of polygraphs are inadmissible in court.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

 

Quote

 

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) - Alabama Democrat Doug Jones on Thursday will be officially declared the winner of a U.S. Senate race after a judge rejected Republican Roy Moore's last-ditch effort to stop the certification of Jones' historic upset in a deep-red state.

Montgomery Circuit Judge Johnny Hardwick denied Moore's request for a restraining order to stop Alabama's canvassing board from certifying Jones' victory on Thursday...

http://www.wsfa.com/story/37150544/judge-rejects-roy-moores-suit-in-alabama-senate-race

 

 

[DKW 86 7,429]

Titan beat me to it...

[AUDub 11,153]

 

[AUDub 11,153]

Certification is complete. Only thing now is to seat him. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

I'm in no way happy that we put a pro-choice politician in the Senate, even if it's only until 2020.  But I feel like we really dodged a bullet with Moore going down.  I'm telling you, even outside of all the creepy sexual stuff, that dude is shady as hell.

[McLoofus 35,182]

12 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I'm in no way happy that we put a pro-choice politician in the Senate, even if it's only until 2020.  But I feel like we really dodged a bullet with Moore going down.  I'm telling you, even outside of all the creepy sexual stuff, that dude is shady as hell.

It truly boggles the mind that it took that stuff to do him in. 

[TexasTiger 12,956]

24 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

It truly boggles the mind that it took that stuff to do him in. 

He might have lost anyway. The allegations actually motivated his deflated base.

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

He might have lost anyway. The allegations actually motivated his deflated base.

True. It was probably more the racial stuff, particularly since one candidate was demonstrably in service to the black community while the other thinks that the time of slavery was better and that black people shouldn't vote. And we already knew that rapey candidates aren't a problem for the GOP- even the female voters. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

20 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

He might have lost anyway. The allegations actually motivated his deflated base.

I think that's doubtful.  It hurt his turnout way more than it helped it.  The only ones motivated were the ones who were going to vote for him anyway.  The allegations were just a bridge too far.  He literally went from about 10 points up in virtually every poll and cruising to single digits down within two days of the news breaking.  I wasn't among them, but I think there were a lot of folks willing to hold their nose and vote for him anyway just to keep the Dems out of the seat until then.  Thus you saw 10x or more the amount of write-ins and I believe some Republicans crossed over and voted Jones when they wouldn't have otherwise.

The first allegations broke November 9th.  The polls up to that point had Moore up anywhere from 4 to 22 points with one outlier from Fox - a tie where they didn't screen for likely voters.  Suddenly, a one day flash poll shows a tie again, then 3 of the next 4 polls suddenly shift to Jones leading.  It bounced around after that as Moore went on the offensive but the race was transformed from that moment forward.  The Democrats smelled blood and began pouring resources into the Jones campaign that he wouldn't have had otherwise and Moore's support waned financially.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html#polls

[TexasTiger 12,956]

21 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I think that's doubtful.  It hurt his turnout way more than it helped it.  The only ones motivated were the ones who were going to vote for him anyway.  The allegations were just a bridge too far.  He literally went from about 10 points up in virtually every poll and cruising to single digits down within two days of the news breaking.  I wasn't among them, but I think there were a lot of folks willing to hold their nose and vote for him anyway just to keep the Dems out of the seat until then.  Thus you saw 10x or more the amount of write-ins and I believe some Republicans crossed over and voted Jones when they wouldn't have otherwise.

The first allegations broke November 9th.  The polls up to that point had Moore up anywhere from 4 to 22 points with one outlier from Fox - a tie where they didn't screen for likely voters.  Suddenly, a one day flash poll shows a tie again, then 3 of the next 4 polls suddenly shift to Jones leading.  It bounced around after that as Moore went on the offensive but the race was transformed from that moment forward.  The Democrats smelled blood and began pouring resources into the Jones campaign that he wouldn't have had otherwise and Moore's support waned financially.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html#polls

The internal polls were different and probably predicted turnout better:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore

[TitanTiger 20,499]

4 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

The internal polls were different and probably predicted turnout better:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore

I generally don't trust internal polls.  I'm just telling you, I've talked to enough Republicans and conservatives in this state over the last several weeks and there was a significant amount of folks who normally vote for Republicans who literally decided after all the sexual stuff came out, that they were either not voting or writing in someone.  Before they were planning on voting for the doofus anyway just to hold the seat for now.  Most didn't know much of anything about his charity shenanigans, they just saw him as something of a crank.

[TexasTiger 12,956]

1 minute ago, TitanTiger said:

I generally don't trust internal polls.  I'm just telling you, I've talked to enough Republicans and conservatives in this state over the last several weeks and there was a significant amount of folks who normally vote for Republicans who literally decided after all the sexual stuff came out, that they were either not voting or writing in someone.  Before they were planning on voting for the doofus anyway just to hold the seat for now.  Most didn't know much of anything about his charity shenanigans, they just saw him as something of a crank.

Will never know, but there's a difference with internal polls released with rosy turnout numbers for PR and the numbers campaigns base decisions on. Your friends opted not to support. More conspiracy theorists Trumpers got more motivated. I'm not sure either of us knows how those numbers shook out. That said, Mo Brooks probably wins easily. A more moderate abortion stance by Jones, maybe not.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

Will never know, but there's a difference with internal polls released with rosy turnout numbers for PR and the numbers campaigns base decisions on. Your friends opted not to support. More conspiracy theorists Trumpers got more motivated. I'm not sure either of us knows how those numbers shook out. That said, Mo Brooks probably wins easily. A more moderate abortion stance by Jones, maybe not.

I think the key stat is almost 23,000 write-ins.  And it wasn't Democrats doing it.  Democrats voted for their guy and were happy to do so.  The next highest number of write-ins in the last 4 or 5 AL Senate elections I checked had around 2000 write-ins.

The was Republicans and conservatives sending a message.  If you subtract the 800-1000 who voted libertarian and probably always do, that's still more than the margin of victory of people who would normally have voted for the GOP who specifically chose to drive to the poll and cast a write in so that the country and the GOP knew it wasn't apathy.  You can probably add about that many more who just decided not to waste their time if they weren't going to vote for either major candidate.  

Jones would have made it a close race possibly, but I stand by my predictions from before the allegations surfaced - Moore was headed for about a 10-12 point win in a race that any other Republican would have won by 20-25 points.

[TexasTiger 12,956]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

I think the key stat is almost 23,000 write-ins.  And it wasn't Democrats doing it.  Democrats voted for their guy and were happy to do so.  The next highest number of write-ins in the last 4 or 5 AL Senate elections I checked had around 2000 write-ins.

The was Republicans and conservatives sending a message.  If you subtract the 800-1000 who voted libertarian and probably always do, that's still more than the margin of victory of people who would normally have voted for the GOP who specifically chose to drive to the poll and cast a write in so that the country and the GOP knew it wasn't apathy.  You can probably add about that many more who just decided not to waste their time if they weren't going to vote for either major candidate.  

Jones would have made it a close race possibly, but I stand by my predictions from before the allegations surfaced - Moore was headed for about a 10-12 point win in a race that any other Republican would have won by 20-25 points.

I agree the write ins were key-- Shelby contributed to those. With what I assume would be the standard number of write ins it's much closer-- what is that standard number? 

But while Brooks or Strange were more typical Republicans, neither are impressive and I suspect there are voters not eager to pull the trigger for either.

[DKW 86 7,429]

http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/12/it_was_good_for_alabama_that_r.html

I am now more than ever convinced that RM will run for governor.

[alexava 6,973]

3 hours ago, DKW 86 said:

http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/12/it_was_good_for_alabama_that_r.html

I am now more than ever convinced that RM will run for governor.

Surely not!

[DKW 86 7,429]

2 hours ago, alexava said:

Surely not!

He has nothing more to lose and all that ego to stroke.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

10 hours ago, alexava said:

Surely not!

I'd bet my house on it.  He will try to parlay this into a run at governor.  I am keeping my eyes peeled for a viable conservative who will run and whom I will volunteer for to get elected.