Moore or Jones?

[DKW 86 7,429]

In an effort to clarify. My comments were probably not detailed enough. Moore lost because of: Educated B&W voters, and HS educated Urban voters. Included in those numbers was exactly as you said, Educated Moderate Conservatives. That was the point. Moore lost because Sanity prevailed in the Conservative Ranks. I am still disgusted that Moore won the runoff however. Maybe the EMC voters did not reach Critical Mass until after the Runoff?

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So who else finds it funny that Jones won this state carrying only one congressional district?

 

I hate gerrymandering.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

9 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

So who else finds it funny that Jones won this state carrying only one congressional district?

 

I hate gerrymandering.

The map looks the same as the presidential election, but the degree of support in all the red districts was significantly lower.

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3 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

The map looks the same as the presidential election, but the degree of support in all the red districts was significantly lower.

The problem is how they've lassoed off the black voters of this state. They literally drew the lines around the city of Birmingham, down 59 to the city of Tuscaloosa and then grabbed all of the black belt. 6th district ought to be a purple district with Tuscaloosa and Jefferson County completely in it.

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[alexava 6,973]

5 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

This wasn't about Trump.  Trump backed Luther Strange and already lost.  Even though he won the state himself by 28 points.

It's not about black/brown/Democrat/urban turnout.  Yes it was exceptional.  But even with this Herculean get out the vote effort, he only won by about 1.5%  Yes, he needed almost all those votes, but no it wasn't what the election turned on.

This was about Roy Moore and the state's conservative voters finally having enough.  The GOP put forth and stuck by an odious candidate and a significant segment of Republicans said this was a bridge too far.  There are limits.  There are at least some standards. 

Jones won by about 21,000 votes.  There were over 22,000 write-ins.  I'll guarantee you none of those write-ins were people that normally vote Democrat.  There were probably a handful of diehard Libertarians.  But I'm guessing somewhere around 98% of those write-ins were people who normally vote Republican.  Then there were the Republicans who chose to stay home.  They were so disgusted with the choice they didn't even bother to write someone in.  And finally there were some moderate/centrists who vote Republican in most elections who voted for Jones.  These conservatives were the story of the election.  You could have put almost any other candidate up there on the Republican side and won this race comfortably.  Put forth a good candidate and it's a cakewalk even with Jones's turnout.

The state's conservative voters sent a message last night, not just to the state GOP, but to the wacko wing of the party base who backed this awful horse to begin with, then stuck with him after the scandal erupted.  We're done being automatic for you.  Do better.

I made the same point earlier elsewhere. I credit the republicans, the sane or semi-sane republicans for being tired of being embarrassed for this win . But my earlier post is also correct in that he still BARELY WON. so the black votes, the votes of people we had banging on doors who got people who aren't even interested in politics to understand the situation to register. Jason Isbell, St Paul n the Bones, Barkely, Corey Booker, Biden.........it took every bit of it to make this push. 

It's still sad this dipshit won the primary in rather large fashion. Those voters aren't dead either. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

13 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

 

[alexava 6,973]

I find it difficult to believe 4% of blacks voted for Moore! Where to these demographic breakdowns come from. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

Holy frick that entire Twitter account is a riot:

https://twitter.com/RoyMooresHorse

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9 minutes ago, alexava said:

I find it difficult to believe 4% of blacks voted for Moore! Where to these demographic breakdowns come from. 

Exit polling.

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7 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Holy frick that entire Twitter account is a riot:

https://twitter.com/RoyMooresHorse

COME ADOPT ME AND FEED ME APPLES

[TitanTiger 20,499]

 

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http://amp.nationalreview.com/article/454619/roy-moore-lost-new-south-defeats-old-south?__twitter_impression=true

By refusing to support Roy Moore, Alabamians repudiated the worst of the region’s past without compromising their values.

Iwas born in Opelika, Ala., in 1969. My parents were students at Auburn University, and after they graduated I spent my entire childhood in the South, moving from Alabama to Louisiana to Tennessee to Kentucky. I had the privilege of growing up in a region that was in the midst of one of the most remarkable and positive social and and cultural transformations in American history. I grew up in the New South.

Consider, for a moment, the pace of change. Just a few years before I was born, white men and women rioted to keep black Americans out of schools and colleges. The stench of institutionalized racism pervaded the region, oppressing American citizens and leaving the South a region apart. It wasn’t the Confederacy, but it wasn’t like the rest of America. Nowhere was American sin more pervasive or obvious.

Continue at the link

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Shelby "relieved" about last night's result.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alabama-senator-relieved-moore-lost-senate-race/ar-BBGHV9s?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

[wdefromtx 3,159]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

Holy frick that entire Twitter account is a riot:

https://twitter.com/RoyMooresHorse

The account was created yesterday and already has over 20K followers!! LOL

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57 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Shelby "relieved" about last night's result.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alabama-senator-relieved-moore-lost-senate-race/ar-BBGHV9s?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

A lot of deplorables jumping his case today.

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[alexava 6,973]

1 hour ago, Bigbens42 said:

A lot of deplorables jumping his case today.

Last night actually. 

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1 hour ago, Bigbens42 said:

 

I get the feeling Moore will still be stumping in January. Nothing a narcissist hates more than irrelevance. 

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Since polling had been a major topic in this thread, let's discuss how the polling broke down. 

First, huge shout out to the NYT Upshot's predictive model, which nailed this when returns started rolling in. I was skeptical, but the model had Jones winning all night, even when Moore's lead was +5. After Lee county flipped, their model took it in stride and knew Jones was well on his way to the upset. 

So, how did they do? Not terribly, all things considered. This was a difficult raced to gauge. Alabama was thought be difficult to poll, and the results bore that out. Taken in the aggregate, the RCP average, Moore was up 2.2, indicating a toss-up, which is exactly what we got. Jones won by 1.5, well within the bounds of a normal polling error (note that the RCP average, being an average, has no margin of error to speak of). But there was a wild spread. Some polls had Moore up 9, others Jones 10. 

Which individual polls performed the best? Easy. What this ended up being is a vindication of traditional, live caller polling. 

The robopolls had had Moore anywhere from +4 to +9. None of those polls fell within their margin of error. By their very nature, their sample skewed older. There's your error.

The major live interview polls fared way better. Their sample was way more in line with the electorate, as they included cell phones in their surveys. 

WaPo had Jones +3. It's margin of error was 4.5. Jones won by 1.5. That's excellent. 

Monmouth indicated a tie. It's margin of error was 4.2. Again, excellent. 

Fox was the outlier here, polling at Jones +10. Their margin was 4.5 among partisans and 7.5 among independents. I appreciate them putting their neck out there and sharing it, but it was an obvious outlier when it was released, hence my skepticism when I posted it earlier.

Overall, not a bad job considering the race. 

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3 hours ago, alexava said:

Last night actually. 

He'll be catching hell from the fringes until the end of his time in the Senate, but I think he'll retire at a time of his choosing or the end of his natural life. 

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[alexava 6,973]

1 hour ago, Bigbens42 said:

He'll be catching hell from the fringes until the end of his time in the Senate, but I think he'll retire at a time of his choosing or the end of his natural life. 

One of my FB friends, old hunting buddy haven’t had much to do with him in past 20 years other than FB, is actually commander in chief of Sons of Confederate Veterans...... if that doesn’t say enough. He was blasting Shelby pretty soon after results.