Moore or Jones?

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 hours ago, warhogone said:

Being a conservative and a Vietnam Vet, just not of the Moore ilk, I chose to vote Moore and let Governor Ivey straighten it out if congress does what I think they will do and refuse to seat/or unseat him. I trust her judgement as opposed to her predecessor and believe she would appoint an honorable, respected conservative to this post. It's cool to call me names if you wish, as some of you are prone to do when disagreed with, but long years in Management have thickened my skin. WDE & IGTBAAT

Not hard to see how your party came to be owned by scumbag lunatics. Y'all just keep handing them the keys and praying they don't drive the whole thing off a cliff. It really sucks.

[AUFAN78 3,926]

4 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

Like I said, read the article. Rather than refuting what I said, it affirms it. I've said the polls were wrong the whole time. All polls are. But the question is actually how wrong. More wrong than usual? Nope. This was, again, not a historic polling miss. They performed better this election than the prior one. 

The funniest thing about you being so snowflakey about being called names is that the evidence is there for all to see. I was perfectly civil right up until you showed your monkey shines, only then did I flip the snark switch. Go back to page 14 and start there.

So laugh it up. You've revealed your intellectual dishonesty for all to see. Whether you feel you've won or lost doesn't really matter, as it's clear that you've no idea what you're talking about. 

My point was never about how wrong or why the polls were wrong. That was your argument. My argument was simply the polls, the publications, the media, etc. got it wrong. I was right. You and others tried to frame that argument to your benefit. Popular polls ring a bell? Did not matter. I was still right. Polls got it wrong. Clinton is not our president. Close doesn't count in an election. 

Not arguing you started out civil. You absolutely did, but you resorted to pettiness, that's on you not me. You should be a man and own it, as should others. I'm not going to lie, I don't expect you or others will. My guess is you'll invoke some homer weaseling tactic instead. Hope I am wrong.

Intellectual dishonesty was you guys trying to frame my point to suit you. It did not work.   

So yes, I laugh and rightfully so. In the end Clinton is not our president. Everyone, everyone, everyone said she would be. Myself included. (Ok, everyone, everyone, everyone may be over dramatic, but you get the point) 

Like I stated previously, I like Nate. I think FiveThirtyEight does a great job. They were closer than most. He manned up and admitted he was wrong. Hope you can. 

 

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The NYT's upshot is a good follow for live results. 

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

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African American turnout was promising for Jones in exit polls. We'll see how it breaks down after the final tally. 

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

 I predict that Moore will win the election.

Honestly, I think Jones going after Moore so heavily in ads and campaigning so negatively are going to backfire. Had he only taken a few shots at Moore and spent the rest of his time actually putting forward his agenda and actually talking about the alleged "kitchen table" issues he has been touting as important to Alabamians, he might be able to win.

Democrats couldn't have asked for a more vulnerable Republican candidate to run against and because they overplayed their hand by bombarding the airwaves with negative ads, they're going to likely lose a very winnable election. Moderate Republicans in this state are either not going to vote or they're going to write in a candidate. 

When Moore wins, the media and folks on here will be partly right to bash folks in Alabama for electing a man like Moore despite all the disgusting accusations against him and past embarrassments of being removed from office. But what will likely be lost or not get much play is how awful of a campaign that Doug Jones has run and how negative his campaign has been.

Running ads that imply a vote for Moore makes you a horrible person isn't going to play well in Alabama. This state is solid red and attacking a decent size part of the electorate is not a good move if you want to win a race.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/pro-doug_jones_ad_provo

A Doug Jones pac ad said:

Quote

"Your vote is public record, and your community will know whether or not you helped stop Roy Moore," says a voice in the ad.

An ad like that might not hurt a candidate in a blue state like Virginia. In the Virginia Governor's race, a Ralph Northam pac ad implied that Ed Gillespie's supporters were racist. The ad didn't cost Northam the election because Virginia is a blue state now. 

But in a solid red state like Alabama, I think the Highway 31 pac ad might end up hurting Dog Jones. 

I could be wrong and will come back and admit to being wrong when the results are in. But I don't think Doug Jones ran a good enough campaign to pull out a win.

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26 minutes ago, AUFAN78 said:

My point was never about how wrong or why the polls were wrong. That was your argument. My argument was simply the polls, the publications, the media, etc. got it wrong. I was right. You and others tried to frame that argument to your benefit. Popular polls ring a bell? Did not matter. I was still right. Polls got it wrong. Clinton is not our president. Close doesn't count in an election. 

Not arguing you started out civil. You absolutely did, but you resorted to pettiness, that's on you not me. You should be a man and own it, as should others. I'm not going to lie, I don't expect you or others will. My guess is you'll invoke some homer weaseling tactic instead. Hope I am wrong.

Intellectual dishonesty was you guys trying to frame my point to suit you. It did not work.   

So yes, I laugh and rightfully so. In the end Clinton is not our president. Everyone, everyone, everyone said she would be. Myself included. (Ok, everyone, everyone, everyone may be over dramatic, but you get the point) 

Like I stated previously, I like Nate. I think FiveThirtyEight does a great job. They were closer than most. He manned up and admitted he was wrong. Hope you can. 

 

Still lying, but I'll get back to this later, weasel. Got election coverage to watch. 

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1 minute ago, Auburnfan91 said:

 I predict that Moore will win the election.

Honestly, I think Jones going after Moore so heavily in ads and campaigning so negatively are going to backfire. Had he only taken a few shots at Moore and spent the rest of his time actually putting forward his agenda and actually talking about the alleged "kitchen table" issues he has been touting as important to Alabamians, he might be able to win.

Democrats couldn't have asked for a more vulnerable Republican candidate to run against and because they overplayed their hand by bombarding the airwaves with negative ads, they're going to likely lose a very winnable election. Moderate Republicans in this state are either not going to vote or they're going to write in a candidate. 

When Moore wins, the media and folks on here will be partly right to bash folks in Alabama for electing a man like Moore despite all the disgusting accusations against him and past embarrassments of being removed from office. But what will likely be lost or nor get much play is how awful of a campaign that Doug Jones has run and how negative his campaign has been.

Running ads that imply a vote for Moore makes you a horrible person isn't going to play well in Alabama. This state is solid red and attacking a decent size part of the electorate is not a good move if you want to win a race.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/pro-doug_jones_ad_provo

A Doug Jones pac ad said:

An ad like that might not hurt a candidate in a blue state like Virginia. In the Virginia Governor's race, a Ralph Northam pac ad implied that Ed Gillespie's supporters were racist. The ad didn't cost Northam the election because Virginia is a blue state now. 

But in a solid red state like Alabama, I think the Highway 31 pac ad might end up hurting Dog Jones. 

I could be wrong and will come back and admit to being wrong when the results are in. But I don't think Doug Jones ran a good enough campaign to pull out a win.

FWIW, I agree that Moore wins. I disagree on Jones' campaign. There were some missteps, notably not disavowing some of the HWY 31 ads that you pointed out, but ran a fine one overall. Campaigned hard. Left it all on the field. 

[AUFAN78 3,926]

4 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

Still lying, but I'll get back to this later, weasel. Got election coverage to watch. 

I can't wait! Should be fun. 

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What you're seeing now if you're watching live coverage is absentee ballots, which Dems practically always win. 

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[AUFAN78 3,926]

13 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

What you're seeing now if you're watching live coverage is absentee ballots, which Dems practically always win. 

Honesty. I like that. Make it a trend. 

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Just now, AUFAN78 said:

Honesty. I like that. Make it a trend. 

CNN is hilarious with their coverage. They always like to build one side up with a big lead then watch the other come back. Rule of Drama=viewers. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

6 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

 

This is the type of thing Jones need to see if he is to pull this off.  Still think Moore wins though.

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Just now, Brad_ATX said:

This is the type of thing Jones need to see if he is to pull this off.  Still think Moore wins though.

Yeah he needs to run away big time with Montgomery, Birmingham and Hunstville. Just don't see it happening. 

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