North Carolina Scouting Report

[AURex 2,016]

Trivia -- UNC beat Washington by the exact same margin of victory that Auburn did earlier this season.

 

[AURex 2,016]

Washington was able to generate turnovers against UNC, they just couldn't score in transition. UNC is fast enough to get back. That said, Auburn is a lot faster than Washington. I'm thinking the only way Auburn has a shot against UNC is to turn them over and score in transition -- a lot.

 

[AUpreacherman22 3,888]

2 hours ago, tigers23 said:

 

If we beat UNC, it will more than likely be Kentucky, not Duke

Yep.  I had a senior moment.  🤦‍♂️

[bigbird 60,571]

NC ranks:

81st in effective field goal percentage

74th in three-point percentage

99th in two-point percentage.

6th in adjusted tempo 

5th in average possession length

100th 3pt FG defense

184th TO/gm (13)

82nd TO forced 

87th steals per game (7.0)

13th Offensive rebounds/gm (13.06)

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,679]

Everything I heard about Nasir is scary as hell 

him coming off the bench forces someone not named Chuma to defend him for the most part...I’d slightly consider benching Dunbar just because we don’t have a 3 on the bench that can match up with the guy 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,679]

29 minutes ago, bigbird said:

NC ranks:

81st in effective field goal percentage

74th in three-point percentage

99th in two-point percentage.

6th in adjusted tempo 

5th in average possession length

100th 3pt FG defense

184th TO/gm (13)

82nd TO forced 

87th steals per game (7.0)

13th Offensive rebounds/gm (13.06)

Thankfully we string out possessions defensively at a high rate and primarily bleed points out from behind the stripe. 

[AURex 2,016]

What we do not want is for Auburn to get forced into a half court, possession by possession game offense. SAnd we especially do not want AU guys trying to go one-on-one against them. UNC is too athletic and too talented to go up against that way. Auburn  thrives on turnovers, transition, and chaos. IMO, this is the only shot Auburn has against UNC.

Thing is, if Auburn does defeat UNC, Auburn actually has a good chance at advancing deep, because UNC is the scariest team I'm looking at right now.

IMO, if UNC beats Auburn, UNC wins the championship. They've already beat Gonzaga. They have the horsepower to beat Virginia. I don't think Duke even makes to to the final 4.

If Auburn does figure out how to beat UNC, Auburn will likely face Kentucky. Although Auburn has lost twice to UK, our guys are playing really good right now and Auburn knows that team. I think AU can beat UK.

 

 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Unc is the best team left in the tourney other than the Zags. If Auburn beats them, we can win it all. 

We will have to put together the best defensive performance of the season with a great shooting performance. At first I would say that would be impossible, but we did it to TN and Kansas. 

We have to make shots. It starts there. 

[ReidMcLain 75]

North Carolina has a big 3 (similar to Duke). A 6'5" Freshman Phenom Coby White who is a pure scorer and as fast as they come averaging 16 ppg. A 6'9" effeicent sharp shooter in Cameron Johnson shooting an insane 46% from 3 and over 51% overall and is their leading scorer at 17 ppg. But 6'8" Luke Maye is the glue that puts it all together averaging 15 and 11 he is a dangeous rebounding post scorer similar to Kevin Love in the NBA. We have the keep him off the glass or from getting hot. North Carolina LEADS the country in rebounding so keeping their bigs off the glass is crucial. They have tons of size and speed and run about a 7-8 deep lineup. Watch out for Nassir Little off the bench a 6'6" forward who despite averaging 10 ppg on the season has scored 19 and 20 in the tournament so far, respectively. North Carolina focuses on tempo and rebounding and are elite if not the best in the country at doing both simultaenously. 

 

[abw0004 10,125]

13 hours ago, bigbird said:

NC ranks:

81st in effective field goal percentage

74th in three-point percentage

99th in two-point percentage.

6th in adjusted tempo 

5th in average possession length

100th 3pt FG defense

184th TO/gm (13)

82nd TO forced 

87th steals per game (7.0)

13th Offensive rebounds/gm (13.06)

Do you have our stats for comparison? 

[bigbird 60,571]

43 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

Do you have our stats for comparison? 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/518

You can pick which team stat you want

[DAG 33,997]

It's going to come down to us forcing turnovers and making 3s. Specifically, we need to make our transition 3s. If we do that it will be an unbelievable game. We aren't blowing this UNC team out, IMO. 

[WeagleTheBeagle 60]

The first thing AU fans need to come to terms with is that UNC is not some unbeatable giant.  We do not have to play as good as we did against UT in the SECT and Kansas to beat them.  We were ranked AHEAD of them for about 2 months during the season.  Both teams took different trajectories to where we are now but each team is what everyone thought they could be when the preseason rankings came out.  We don't have to play great against these guys to be in the game.  I think we are all a little sensitive because of the Clemson game last year but we've really only laid one egg this entire season.  We have so many more weapons now and are playing smarter basketball.

WHAT UNC is ELITE at:  Rebounding, Scoring (by taking a LOT of 2P shots)
WHAT AU is ELITE at:  Forcing Turnovers, Scoring (by taking a LOT of 3P shots)

Conclusion: 

UNC takes lots of shots BECAUSE they rebound
Auburn takes lots of shots BECAUSE they force turnovers (also we are a good off rebounding team bc of long rebounds off missed 3P)

So assuming both teams play pretty close to their averages, the stats to watch will be REBOUNDING MARGIN and TURNOVER MARGIN.  These stats will determine the number of shots each team gets.  

UNC key to the game:  TAKE CARE OF THE BALL
AU key to the game:  REBOUND

Whichever team does a better job will probably win.  

[WeagleTheBeagle 60]

If you wanna dig a little deeper...as DAG said above, we need to take a lot of transition 3's for a couple of reasons.  #1 - more likely to have an open shot, #2 - more likely to get an Off Rebound bc players aren't set yet.  Of course you can't have a transition 3 if you don't rebound or have a turnover on the defensive end.  

[alexava 6,973]

We need to stay hot shooting. We need them to be cold. Stay out of half court game. Bruce will let Auburn be Auburn. We just got to make shots. 

[abw0004 10,125]

Really glad I started this thread.  Reading some really interesting things I would not have learned otherwise about UNC.

[alexava 6,973]

16 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

Really glad I started this thread.  Reading some really interesting things I would not have learned otherwise about UNC.

I know mine wasn’t too in depth. From listening to Bruce as he’s mic’ed up it sounds like he doesn’t coach very in depth. Just basic instructions and motivation. 

[Tiger 8,829]

5 minutes ago, alexava said:

I know mine wasn’t too in depth. From listening to Bruce as he’s mic’ed up it sounds like he doesn’t coach very in depth. Just basic instructions and motivation. 

All mic'd up segments are like that. Pretty sure the coaches wouldn't agree to be mic'd up if they were going to be broadcasting nitty gritty specifics

[LKEEL75 2,566]

Bruce Pearl on the subject:

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/Article/Auburn-coach-Bruce-Pearl-North-Carolina-is-bluebloods-on-steroids-in-NCAA-Tournament-Sweet-16-130511339
 

Bruce Pearl: North Carolina is 'bluebloods on steroids'

ByBRANDON MARCELLO 23 hours ago

x

AUBURN, Alabama — Auburn is not college basketball royalty.

Bruce Pearl has made that clear throughout Auburn's postseason run that has included an SEC Tournament title, 10 consecutive wins and upsets of Tennessee and Kansas.

Even after knocking off Tennessee and Kansas, he refused to say his Tigers have joined the list of the elite. Auburn is certainly not one of the bluebloods of college basketball, a permanent fixture in the Sweet 16 every season, but the Tigers have reached the Sweet 16, where they start their fifth ever endeavor in the regional semifinals Friday against No. 1 seed North Carolina.

"Listen, this is what we do in Auburn in all sports. It's just that we haven't done it in men's basketball in a long time," Pearl said. "So the fact that it can be done at Auburn is a real strong statement. These kids all came to Auburn on a promise that, if we came together, maybe we could put something together and could do it together and make a basketball program. I've got a great coaching staff that works so hard. They make things so much easier for me. You can't even begin to have emphasize how outstanding my staff is. They should get all the credit."

Pearl stepped off the bus after a short 50-minute ride from the Montgomery airport to Auburn Arena on Sunday, less than 24 hours following an 89-75 victory against Kansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. At the moment it appeared the Tigers were set to face the Tar Heels (29-6), a team up double digits in the second half against Washington in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

The cell service on the ride from Montgomery to Auburn provided for choppy streaming of the game on smartphones and tablets, but Pearl and his group did watch part of the game.

"Got a little bit of an idea," Pearl said. "Go home, work tonight a little bit, get kids together [Monday] afternoon after class.

" He placed on extra emphasis on "class" and the need for his players to sit in the classroom after nearly a week away from campus.

Pearl also downplayed the historic performance against Kansas in which Auburn led the Jayhawks 51-25 at halftime. He referred to the Jayhawks as a basketball "blueblood" after the game. A week earlier he referred to the SEC's Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida as basketball "royalty" in the SEC. He has since knocked off three of those teams in four wins.

Auburn (28-9), he says, is trying to get to that level.

North Carolina? Well, Pearl knows they're better than Kansas.

"[The first half against Kansas] was terrific," Pearl said. "We played like that against Tennessee in the championship game of the SEC Tournament, but this next round is bluebloods on steroids, so we’ll have to continue to play better to advance.

We want to keep on making them proud and give them something to continue to cheer."

Guard Bryce Brown, fresh off a record-breaking performance with seven 3-pointers and 25 points against Kansas, walked off the bus with a good handle on the huge challenge the Tar Heels present. Forward Luke Maye is a load. He owns the North Carolina record for rebounds (743) in consecutive seasons, and scored 20 points while grabbing 14 rebounds for his 15th double-double of the season in the 81-59 victory against Washington.

Brown nodded quickly in absolute approval of Pearl's take on North Carolina being an elite team. The Tar Heels love to run uptempo like Auburn, but they have one noticeable advantage: they love to rebound. The program has also have advanced 36 times to the Sweet 16, including four of the last five years.

"Knowing how they play, they’re a team that likes to push the ball in transition, they can shoot the ball, have pretty good bigs that rebound, a physical team with length," Brown said. "It’ll be a good test for us to see if we can handle."

Tipoff Friday is set for 6:29 p.m. CT inside Sprint Arena in Kansas City, Missouri. The game will be televised on TBS and will be available on the March Madness Live app.

[WeagleTheBeagle 60]

All I've seen so far analyzing this game is how fast it will be and whether Auburn can really keep up with UNC.  But if I'm Roy Williams, I'm playing the half-court game and getting it to my bigs all night.  Work it inside, get us into foul trouble, slow down the game.  We have no answer for that and the first team that runs that bland basketball at us will beat us.  Good news for us is (just like Kansas) UNC and Roy Williams are too proud to change their game for little ol' Auburn.  Kansas did in the 2nd half but it was already too late.   

[tgrogan21 6,198]

I haven't gotten to watch UNC play a lot this year but all of the "experts" keep throwing out, "The first team to 100 wins." That is just stupid, imo because while Auburn doesn't have the best perimeter defense and we're small on the inside, we turn teams over at an alarming rate. Teams aren't going to score 100 on Auburn if we're playing like we have in the past 10 games. Since our win streak, and I'm using that period because that's when we've been playing our best basketball against the best competition, we are giving up 70.3 points per game,  turning our opponent over 16.4 times per game, and only turning the ball over ourselves 8.5 times per game. Those last 2 stats are going to decide this game. Almost a 2:1 turnover ratio is absolutely amazing against the competition we've been playing.

 

Also, to anyone who thinks that we can't compete with UNC just because of the name on their jersey that's discrediting the amazing job that these young men and this coaching staff have done this season. Every single player in the past 10 games has stepped up in one game or another and been one of, if not THE lynch pin for our team winning.

 

During the Georgia game it was Harper scoring 22 points, 5 assists, and only 1 turnover. The MS State game it was Brown with 24 points, 3 assists, and 2 steals, and only 1 turnover. The Alabama game it was Okeke with 17 points and 14 rebounds (7 of them Offensive). The first TN game it was Okeke, Brown, and Harper combined scoring 22, 16, and 16 respectively. The Missouri game was Spencer coming off of the bench and scoring 10 points and getting 11 rebounds after early foul trouble for Mac. South Carolina game, the smallest guy on the court had 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. NMSU was McCormick getting a career-high with 16 points, 2 steals and only 1 turnover in 17 minutes. And then against Kansas you had Mac having a "comeback" game with 11 points, 5 rebounds, and only ONE foul. 

 

We can easily come out on Friday and get ran off the court but the way we've been playing the past 10 games, I just don't see that happening. At any time of the game any one of our 10 players can take over and give us a spark when we need it. Forget the name on the jersey because I would take or 10 guys over just about anyone in college basketball at this time because of how well they are playing together as a team.

[Tiger 8,829]

Being a NC native and living in the Carolinas currently I'm surrounded by fans of the triangle schools up here. From what I gather UNC fans are worried about them turning the ball over and giving up open 3s. These apparently have been issues for them at times this season.

This is music to my ears because these are 2 areas we can hurt them due to our ability to hit 3s and cause turnovers. My hope is that we are on from 3 and we can exploit these weaknesses in UNCs game because if we want to win we're going to have to turn them over and drill 3s. And we have to keep their rebounding advantage to a minimum but I'm thinking they will dominate us on the glass but we can keep this thing close and hopefully make the right plays down the stretch if we force TOs and hit 3s.

Basically....what everyone else has been saying lol. Mind blowing stuff, I know..

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Currently on biz traveling but hope to have a chance to give this one a good look before Friday. 

 

 

[Beaker 2,457]

4 hours ago, tgrogan21 said:

laying like we have in the past 10 games. Since our win streak, and I'm using that period because that's when we've been playing our best basketball against the best competition, we are giving up 70.3 points per game,  turning our opponent over 16.4 times per game, and only turning the ball over ourselves 8.5 times per game. Those last 2 stats are going to decide this game. Almost a 2:1 turnover ratio is absolutely amazing against the competition we've been playing.

Hopefully those extra 8 or 9 possessions will be enough to outscore NC....that is key, and making our 3's.   I predict if we make our 3's and get the turnovers, we will win by 4-10 points.   I sense that Bruce is driving this bus pretty hard.   If he wins this, he will have returned to the elite 8, giving him a legit shot at getting to the final 4.  That is his big goal and he knows you just don't have that chance every year.   Truth be told, this may be his best shot for some years to come to get to the final 4....hope  I am wrong of course.

[cole256 17,084]

I'm going to write my thoughts when I get a little time. In the middle of a move at the moment. Flattered that you value my opinion though