.631

[Swamp Eagle 5,136]

On 10/6/2019 at 7:57 PM, AUsince72 said:

 

And how many yearly wins should AU have with Gus as Head Coach?

Sounds like we just need to pay a higher salary to get more wins...🙄

[Tiger 8,825]

When we won the national title in 2010 we leveled up as a program. And then 3 short years later we are 13 seconds away from getting another one confirming that us leveling up was not a fluke and that we can be wildly successful at AU.

The old "8 wins is ok" era for Auburn football was officially dead in 2010 and driven further into the ground in 2013. We need to start acting like it. You don't make it to 2 national title games in 3 years to just sink back to 8 win seasons and not consider it a failure. 

 

Would Clemson be ok with getting back to where they were before Dabo lit a fire under that program? Because that's who they "used to be"? WE should be where Clemson is right now and we effing blew it. Now the Cam Newton era, which we still hold on to dearly and use in recruiting, is almost a freaking decade away and we didn't use that as a springboard to become what we should have become. That was a major screw up IMO to slide back to our current state

[leglessdan 1,934]

19 minutes ago, Tiger said:

When we won the national title in 2010 we leveled up as a program. And then 3 short years later we are 13 seconds away from getting another one confirming that us leveling up was not a fluke and that we can be wildly successful at AU.

The old "8 wins is ok" era for Auburn football was officially dead in 2010 and driven further into the ground in 2013. We need to start acting like it. You don't make it to 2 national title games in 3 years to just sink back to 8 win seasons and not consider it a failure. 

 

Would Clemson be ok with getting back to where they were before Dabo lit a fire under that program? Because that's who they "used to be"? WE should be where Clemson is right now and we effing blew it. Now the Cam Newton era, which we still hold on to dearly and use in recruiting, is almost a freaking decade away and we didn't use that as a springboard to become what we should have become. That was a major screw up IMO to slide back to our current state

That 2013 NC loss still burns for me. We were the MOST dominant offensive team in the country that year with a 3 TD lead and blew it. 

[Mims44 1,869]

On 10/6/2019 at 12:19 AM, Swamp Eagle said:

That is the win percentage of the Auburn football program since 1892. That's 127 years worth of facts. 

People are bitching and moaning around here like we're historically a blue blood of college football.

.631 is good enough as 18th all-time. Now thats impressive considering we're not even the state namesake university. But to be wringing our hands and demanding that every coach has some faux legacy to uphold by contending for championships year in and year out is a pipe dream. 

Should that be the goal? Absolutely. Is it realistic? Well, to disagree with me is not arguing with me; you're arguing with 127 years of reality. That doesn't mean we.should settle for anything or anyone, but it sure does limit the standard that we clamor to hold someone to year in and year out.

 

Man, look at all those thumbs down. Bet that teaches you not to use something factual... like our actual winning % in a thread again!

[autigeremt 6,616]

Clemson is a special circumstance. When I was growing up in the middle of the Danny Ford era Clemson was a known commodity in college football. A 12-0 season and the natty in 1981 propelled Clemson through most of the 80's but it actually began in the late 70's under dirty Charlie Pell. Charlie left Clemson open for sanctions and led Florida down the same road as their Head Coach. Danny took over in the Gator Bowl where Clemson knocked off powerhouse Ohio State in the game that would lead to the firing of Woody Hayes. Clemson competed through their sanctions and was on their way back to the top when Bobby Robinson and Danny Ford got into an argument about a football only complex. Robinson and the Board won their battle against Ford as he resigned in 1989, being forced out (a big mistake by the AD and the Board). Clemson would slowly fade away until they were a footnote prior to the Dabo Swinney era (where they almost fired him after their loss to Texas Tech.....Kevin Steeles last game as DC). 

Clemson doesn't have an Alabama to compete with. They used to have FSU but that program is mired in the aftermath of Jimbo's curse. No one else can seriously challenge them in the ACC so the schedule is weak except for the playoffs. 

BUT.......Auburn should NEVER accept 8-4 as a standard. Ten years of 8-4 may look pretty ok on paper (80 and 40)....but it sucks as a fan. We need to be an average of 9 and 3. If you want Champsionships. 

[japantiger 4,051]

30 minutes ago, Mims44 said:

Man, look at all those thumbs down. Bet that teaches you not to use something factual... like our actual winning % in a thread again!

Mim's...I don't think anyone is debating the historical numbers.  But just like the investment guys say "past performance is not indicative of future results".  Set the fan base expectation aside or the past 127 years aside; It is clear that the university expected more; or it wouldn't have signed onto a $50m head coach.  He has a top 5 salary in the NCAA.  He's paid more than Dan Mullen.  That sort of says what expectations are/should be.  There was a clear expectation that Gus was going to have this team competing for Natties regularly.   Is he even an average coach in the SEC?  

In 8 years as a head coach; he has a 684 winning %...674 at Auburn.  He's finished in the top 5 one time....top 25 just 4 times (in spite of pre season expectation to the contrary).  He is 2-4 in bowl games.  He has a .450 record against ranked teams....333 against top 10 teams... Kevin Sumlin and Hugh Freeze had a better record against ranked teams. 

$50m?  I am reminded of the story my Dad told me about the Baseball player back in the 30's that asked for a raise or he'd quit because he put up big numbers one year.  The general manager asked him what place they finished in...the player said last.  The GM said "I figure we can finish in last without you"....

[McLoofus 35,182]

I thought for sure the thread title was a reference to Gus's win percentage and this thread was going to be using it as evidence of just cause.

[leglessdan 1,934]

22 minutes ago, japantiger said:

Mim's...I don't think anyone is debating the historical numbers.  But just like the investment guys say "past performance is not indicative of future results".  Set the fan base expectation aside or the past 127 years aside; It is clear that the university expected more; or it wouldn't have signed onto a $50m head coach.  He has a top 5 salary in the NCAA.  He's paid more than Dan Mullen.  That sort of says what expectations are/should be.  There was a clear expectation that Gus was going to have this team competing for Natties regularly.   Is he even an average coach in the SEC?  

In 8 years as a head coach; he has a 684 winning %...674 at Auburn.  He's finished in the top 5 one time....top 25 just 4 times (in spite of pre season expectation to the contrary).  He is 2-4 in bowl games.  He has a .450 record against ranked teams....333 against top 10 teams... Kevin Sumlin and Hugh Freeze had a better record against ranked teams. 

$50m?  I am reminded of the story my Dad told me about the Baseball player back in the 30's that asked for a raise or he'd quit because he put up big numbers one year.  The general manager asked him what place they finished in...the player said last.  The GM said "I figure we can finish in last without you"....

Take into account who we played in those 2 bowl wins for added clarity.

[Mims44 1,869]

16 minutes ago, japantiger said:

Mim's...I don't think anyone is debating the historical numbers.  But just like the investment guys say "past performance is not indicative of future results".  Set the fan base expectation aside or the past 127 years aside; It is clear that the university expected more; or it wouldn't have signed onto a $50m head coach.  He has a top 5 salary in the NCAA.  He's paid more than Dan Mullen.  That sort of says what expectations are/should be.  There was a clear expectation that Gus was going to have this team competing for Natties regularly.   Is he even an average coach in the SEC?  

In 8 years as a head coach; he has a 684 winning %...674 at Auburn.  He's finished in the top 5 one time....top 25 just 4 times (in spite of pre season expectation to the contrary).  He is 2-4 in bowl games.  He has a .450 record against ranked teams....333 against top 10 teams... Kevin Sumlin and Hugh Freeze had a better record against ranked teams. 

$50m?  I am reminded of the story my Dad told me about the Baseball player back in the 30's that asked for a raise or he'd quit because he put up big numbers one year.  The general manager asked him what place they finished in...the player said last.  The GM said "I figure we can finish in last without you"....

Gus lucked or skilled himself into a contract he didn't deserve, and I can't even blame him for it. Rule #1 of capitolism, get as much for your labor as you can! Auburn got scared of Arky and just threw him tons of cash, good for him... kinda sucks for everyone else though.

Before that insane new contract he was middling in pay for the SEC, 8th i think? Combine that with the ignorance of our recruiting (people love saying we are top ten nationally over the past 5 years, yet they never mention how we average between 4th and 6th in the SEC in recruiting over the past 5 years) and we've created a fanbase that believes they should go undefeated with a weak O-line and true freshman QB.

 

 

 

Don't get me wrong, I want Auburn to be a year in year out power, I want the 12-0 seasons and NCs. But I can't look at the reality of the program these past 5 years and then start slapping my keyboard when we lose because I just can not believe a team with a middling HC and slightly above conference average recruiting are not world beaters.

[Swamp Eagle 5,136]

1 hour ago, Mims44 said:

Man, look at all those thumbs down. Bet that teaches you not to use something factual... like our actual winning % in a thread again!

It's all good, brother. Most took it like "we can never do any better than 8-4" when what I said was we need not pretend that there is a historical standard by which we can demand whatever coach we want and demand nothing but 10+ win seasons. That's about as damn arrogant and delusional as one can get.

[japantiger 4,051]

1 minute ago, Mims44 said:

Gus lucked or skilled himself into a contract he didn't deserve, and I can't even blame him for it. Rule #1 of capitolism, get as much for your labor as you can! Auburn got scared of Arky and just threw him tons of cash, good for him... kinda sucks for everyone else though.

Before that insane new contract he was middling in pay for the SEC, 8th i think? Combine that with the ignorance of our recruiting (people love saying we are top ten nationally over the past 5 years, yet they never mention how we average between 4th and 6th in the SEC in recruiting over the past 5 years) and we've created a fanbase that believes they should go undefeated with a weak O-line and true freshman QB.

 

 

 

Don't get me wrong, I want Auburn to be a year in year out power, I want the 12-0 seasons and NCs. But I can't look at the reality of the program these past 5 years and then start slapping my keyboard when we lose because I just can not believe a team with a middling HC and slightly above conference average recruiting are not world beaters.

I think we agree.  And that is what sucks.  I was surprised to be 5-0.  I expected 3-2 at that point of the year.  The loss to FL is not surprising.  Just heralds another 8-4 record (in a good case); and likely means 8-5 with bowl history.   The way we loss to FL is what bothers me...not getting the ball to the fastest guy in the SEC; when a Freshman QB is obviously struggling, keep him out there vs setting him for a couple of series to get a head check; 1st and goal, illegal procedure, 3 straight incompletions, sack; after having run the ball all the way down the field; can't score TD's in the red zone, etc. 

[DAG 33,982]

3 minutes ago, Swamp Eagle said:

It's all good, brother. Most took it like "we can never do any better than 8-4" when what I said was we need not pretend that there is a historical standard by which we can demand whatever coach we want and demand nothing but 10+ win seasons. That's about as damn arrogant and delusional as one can get.

It wasn’t the stats, more or less your presentation was pretty abrasive. You seem very angry in your posts 

[keesler 5,924]

On 10/6/2019 at 8:08 AM, Swamp Eagle said:

The bottom line is this. Auburn can certainly be a better than 8-4 program. But instead of looking at history and making fair after-the-fact comparisons (such as Shugs 3 10-win seasons in 25 years and Gus' 2 in 6 1/2), Gus, or anyone we get, is being compared to Nick Saban. Good luck with that s**t. Some of you guys are going to die as very disappointed individuals.

HorseS#!t!  Gus has put Auburn in a position to get compared to the likes freaking Jeremy Pruitt/Joe Moorehead/Dan Mullen/Kirby Smart/Ed Orgeron/Bret Bielmia (in 4 OT's) when his teams lose to those ass clowns.  Some were first yr coaches, some were reruns from other failed programs, some had very inferior teams compared to AU.

Gus isn't getting compared to Saban anymore than any other HC in college football.  Comparing Gus to Nick in any way, shape, or form is ludicrous because it's an apples to apes comparison historically and in the current day.  IF the only coach/team Auburn was losing to was uat, we'd be in the SEC/NC hunt consistently.

[Swamp Eagle 5,136]

18 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I thought for sure the thread title was a reference to Gus's win percentage and this thread was going to be using it as evidence of just cause.

Absolutely the wrong impression, Loof.  I'm saying we look pretty damn stupid screaming for someone to submit to a standard that has yet to be met. If a change needs to be made, make it, but understand that expectations are one thing; reality is another.  It's not like we will have our pick of the litter of coaches.  Let's say Notre Dame, USC,  Michigan & Auburn all have vacancies at the same time. Who on that list sucks hind teat on available coaches? 

 

And then the cycle starts over again. 

[Swamp Eagle 5,136]

2 minutes ago, keesler said:

HorseS#!t!  Gus has put Auburn in a position to get compared to the likes freaking Jeremy Pruitt/Joe Moorehead/Dan Mullen/Kirby Smart/Ed Orgeron/Bret Bielmia (in 4 OT's) when his teams lose to those ass clowns.  Some were first yr coaches, some were reruns from other failed programs, some had very inferior teams compared to AU.

Gus isn't getting compared to Saban anymore than any other HC in college football.  Comparing Gus to Nick in any way, shape, or form is ludicrous because it's an apples to apes comparison historically and in the current day.  IF the only coach/team Auburn was losing to was uat, we'd be in the SEC/NC hunt consistently.

Gus also isn't being compared to previous Auburn coaches. History says you're wrong that Auburn is a year-in-year-out NC contender.  

[oracle79 3,569]

2 hours ago, Swamp Eagle said:

So I guess Dye and Shug and all the other coaches who weren't making $7 million a year just weren't trying hard enough.

I suspect if you add 2 more cupcakes to their schedule, they would have had more 9 and 10 win seasons.

Try looking at average loses per season.

15 minutes ago, Mims44 said:

should go undefeated with a weak O-line and true freshman QB.

How did we end up with that after 7 years of the same guy running the program?

[Swamp Eagle 5,136]

9 minutes ago, DAG said:

It wasn’t the stats, more or less your presentation was pretty abrasive. You seem very angry in your posts 

Good gosh. Do you need a written apology?

[Swamp Eagle 5,136]

4 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

I suspect if you add 2 more cupcakes to their schedule, they would have had more 9 and 10 win seasons.

Try looking at average loses per season.

How did we end up with that after 7 years of the same guy running the program?

Nothing wrong with that question. Just understand...whoever we were to get and whatever we were to pay him will have little to do with his chances of doing great things. Don't you think Shug, Dye, Tuberville...even Chizik all intended to make Auburn a sustained annual contender? I do. But they didn't. History has told us that any AU coach has an uphill battle. Recruiting, schedule, internal meddling...not to mention the team on the other side of the state. If you compare Gus to his own school's peers, he's not at the bottom of the pecking order.  I'm not saying that is a reason to not expect better or end up firing him; but do it without the fantasy that there is a savior out there who will immediately come and do miraculous things just because we think he should. History says it's a tall task. Anyone who can't admit to that is challenged.

[Mims44 1,869]

13 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

How did we end up with that after 7 years of the same guy running the program?

Because above average programs are not top tier or perfect programs?

 

Recruiting is a good measure, though it's not the end all be all. In recruiting Bama, Georgia, and LSU are not just recruiting better, but are head and shoulders above everyone else. Florida (on average) is slightly ahead and A&M is slightly behind Auburn. That's why i said before we are 4th-6th in recruiting.

 

But it's really neither here nor there as the point is Auburn, A&M, and Florida do really well recruiting, but that's a bit different than Bama, GA, and LSU getting a lions share of all top talent. Those are the 3 teams that have near no excuse to ever have a weak spot in their lineup.

[keesler 5,924]

13 minutes ago, Swamp Eagle said:

Gus also isn't being compared to previous Auburn coaches. History says you're wrong that Auburn is a year-in-year-out NC contender.  

Some programs have been re-writing the damn history books Swamp!  Why the hell can't I expect Auburn to do the same when they're paying top 5 salaries to this staff?

I just don't think it's too much to ask as an alum for these coaches to earn their keep and somehow find a way to pull out two 9/10 win seasons out their ass. 

[gr82be 14,424]

I'm in the expect more for Auburn football crowd. In this day of 13 game seasons with 14-15 games for NC contenders 10 games is the absolute basement for a team if it wants to be serious. The SEC west is tough but Auburn is part of the reason it is as tough as it is for anyone to win. Recruiting exposure is national now and it wasn't for many of the years Auburn built it's .631 resume. Auburn has as much access to these players as anyone. Malzahn fits in quite nicely with our history but when the change is made we need a coach with a serious vision and ability to change the culture and expectation. Did anyone really think Auburn basketball would be in the Final Four? That's what we have to do for football now. The rest of the big boys in the SEC aren't going to come down to our level of acceptable mediocrity. They have moved on and we are now in their periphery and not too far off from being in the rear view mirror. 

[ChltteTiger 649]

2 hours ago, leglessdan said:

That 2013 NC loss still burns for me. We were the MOST dominant offensive team in the country that year with a 3 TD lead and blew it. 

18 pt lead but yes it felt like 3 TD lead.

[oracle79 3,569]

31 minutes ago, Swamp Eagle said:

History says it's a tall task

No doubt. Everybody wants to win 10+ games every year. Like Louis Gossett Jr. said in the movie, "My grandmother wants to fly jets!"  It's not possible everywhere. With the right person leading, I believe it is at Auburn with our resources, tradition, fan base, recruiting area, and support. And even if it's not, I'd rather try for that than accept mediocrity out of a fear of failure.

[gr82be 14,424]

The .631 overall percentage included quite a few seasons at sub .500 that pull it down. To win 9 games would mean just under .700. Three coaches have exceeded .700 win percentage, Donahue (.730 / 18 seasons), Dye ( .711 / 10 seasons) and Bowden ( .731 / 5.5 seasons). Dye didn't lose a lot of conference games before the Eric Ramsey saga. You have to win the conference games to contend. He made Auburn a championship contending team. It can be done at Auburn but Gus isn't trending that direction. 

 

 

[AURex 1,998]

If you limit the data to only Power5 and top independents (like Notre Dame), Auburn is 15th all time and 6th of the SEC teams in W-L percentage, just ahead of Florida by an infinitesimal  0.1% so Auburn may slip behind Florida after this season.

Is being just middle of the conference satisfying to anyone here? Well, certainly not me. Middlin is mediocre, and I'm not happy with middlin. And it ain't gettin' better. The continuing recent records of 7-5 and 8-4 is still right there at ---- you guessed it --- 63%. The singular big-win seasons scattered in there occasionally are offset by the really crappy seasons, so they don't really change the overall percentage much year after year.

Nope. I'm not satisfied with that, and I don't really care what the past was.

As for history : Historically the record for most national championships is Yale with 18. Princeton is second with 17. That just demonstrates that the past does not dictate the future.