AUDub 11,148 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, alexava said: Are you sure these are republicans? WIGOP is shorthand for Wisconsin GOP. Fairly sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Current analysis from Nate Silver. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,148 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Whoo finally the 538 forecast is out! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURex 1,998 Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 I'm going to be voting not-Trump (yes, a futile vote), but I am skeptical of all these polls. Seeing too many connected conservatives saying that Trump supporters are intentionally skewing poll results, and efforts to thwart absentee ballots and mail-in votes will assure that all the votes of all the sissy Democrats will not be counted, and Trump's plan to proclaim a national emergency to invalidate the election, will all combine to keep him in office -- not only for one more term, but for more terms after that. Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 or 10 million votes, yet still be in office come 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 12,865 Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, AURex said: I'm going to be voting not-Trump (yes, a futile vote), but I am skeptical of all these polls. Seeing too many connected conservatives saying that Trump supporters are intentionally skewing poll results, and efforts to thwart absentee ballots and mail-in votes will assure that all the votes of all the sissy Democrats will not be counted, and Trump's plan to proclaim a national emergency to invalidate the election, will all combine to keep him in office -- not only for one more term, but for more terms after that. Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 or 10 million votes, yet still be in office come 2021. I think AL, MS, AR, TN and KY should secede, name him emperor and let the rest of us move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 New Yahoo/YouGov poll out has Biden up 10 nationally. That's not the interesting part though. Pulled out some key quotes from the article under the link. One of the key takeaways that I see is that some of Trump's go to attacks simply aren't working. The suburb one is a great example. https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-biden-opens-10-point-lead-215044674.html Asked if their opinion of Trump’s coronavirus response has changed because of Woodward’s big scoop — a tape of Trump privately acknowledging the virus was “deadly stuff” even as he publicly sought, in his own words, “to play it down”— nearly a quarter of Americans (23 percent) say yes. Even 15 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2016 say the Woodward news has changed their mind about the president’s handling of the pandemic. Overall, 15 percent of Americans say the Woodward quotes have made them less likely to vote to reelect the president in November — and a third of these were 2016 Trump supporters. Asked which candidate shows more respect for the military, 50 percent of registered voters name Biden, compared to 39 percent for Trump. By the same margin, voters say Biden would do a better job leading the military than the current commander in chief. Reactions to Trump’s reported remarks on the military were predictably partisan, but nearly a quarter of independents (23 percent) say the news increased their support for Biden, compared to just 9 percent who say the news increased their support for Trump. Six percent of 2016 Trump supporters say they have moved toward Biden as a result. This reflects a larger problem for Trump. Only 1 percent of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 supporters say they will vote for the president in November. At the same time, 8 percent of Trump’s 2016 supporters say they will vote for Biden. Looking forward, a 10-point plurality thinks that if Biden is elected, there will be less violence of the sort seen in Kenosha (42 percent) rather than more (32 percent). Half as many voters believe Biden wants to “abolish the suburbs” (23 percent) — a frequent Trump attack — than believe he wants to do no such thing (46 percent). And a full 61 percent predict there will be more violence if Trump is reelected, while just 20 percent say there will be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUDub 11,148 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 Fivethirtyeight gives Trump a 1 in 4 chance as of now. Things have improved if you're Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,373 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 4 hours ago, Brad_ATX said: New Yahoo/YouGov poll out has Biden up 10 nationally. That's not the interesting part though. Pulled out some key quotes from the article under the link. One of the key takeaways that I see is that some of Trump's go to attacks simply aren't working..... I wish I could find the clip taken at one of his recent rallys I saw the other day. It was the most unhinged, blood-in-the-streets, rant's I've ever heard (at least from the modern era). I can't imagine any rational person taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,373 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 8:38 PM, AURex said: I'm going to be voting not-Trump (yes, a futile vote), but I am skeptical of all these polls. Seeing too many connected conservatives saying that Trump supporters are intentionally skewing poll results, and efforts to thwart absentee ballots and mail-in votes will assure that all the votes of all the sissy Democrats will not be counted, and Trump's plan to proclaim a national emergency to invalidate the election, will all combine to keep him in office -- not only for one more term, but for more terms after that. Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 or 10 million votes, yet still be in office come 2021. Not sure about what he will be actually able to get away with, but from the polling statistic I have heard - 70+% of Democrats plan to vote by mail compared about 20% of Republicans - Trump will probably be ahead for a few days until all the mail-in ballots are tallied and he falls behind. Expect him to declare himself a winner prematurely and violence will follow. It will be perhaps the greatest constitutional crisis in our country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad_ATX 13,654 Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 A thread from Nate Cohn on four swing states. Worth clicking and reading the top line analysis in his tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 20 hours ago, homersapien said: Not sure about what he will be actually able to get away with, but from the polling statistic I have heard - 70+% of Democrats plan to vote by mail compared about 20% of Republicans - Trump will probably be ahead for a few days until all the mail-in ballots are tallied and he falls behind. Expect him to declare himself a winner prematurely and violence will follow. It will be perhaps the greatest constitutional crisis in our country. I expect a terrible November for our country no matter which way this election goes. If Trump wins the left will ramp up the burning and rioting and looting. If Biden wins Trump will say the election was rigged and no telling what happens from there, but it won’t be good for this country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leftfield 2,598 Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: If Biden wins Trump will say the election was rigged and no telling what happens from there, but it won’t be good for this country. This is a laughable argument, considering Trump has been loudly claiming for months that the election will be rigged and illegal voting will be rampant. As soon as the polls showed Biden had a significant lead Trump began deliberately sowing doubt about the election process so he can protest the results if they don't work in his favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 50 minutes ago, Leftfield said: This is a laughable argument, considering Trump has been loudly claiming for months that the election will be rigged and illegal voting will be rampant. As soon as the polls showed Biden had a significant lead Trump began deliberately sowing doubt about the election process so he can protest the results if they don't work in his favor. I have no idea what you are even talking about because it appears you agree with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leftfield 2,598 Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, SocialCircle said: I have no idea what you are even talking about because it appears you agree with me. My point being he has already said it's rigged, so it's ridiculous to think he'll do anything else. I would love to see any evidence of a previous presidential nominee who has outright questioned the validity of an election before it has even happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SocialCircle 570 Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Leftfield said: My point being he has already said it's rigged, so it's ridiculous to think he'll do anything else. I would love to see any evidence of a previous presidential nominee who has outright questioned the validity of an election before it has even happened. We agree that if Trump loses he will say it was rigged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homersapien 11,373 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 8 hours ago, SocialCircle said: We agree that if Trump loses he will say it was rigged. So, will you believe him? If not, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jj3jordan 2,052 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 7:49 PM, TexasTiger said: I think AL, MS, AR, TN and KY should secede, name him emperor and let the rest of us move on. Don’t forget FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnyAU 3,630 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 17 hours ago, SocialCircle said: We agree that if Trump loses he will say it was rigged. Like Hillary still claims, and what she advises Biden to do if he loses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,482 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 6 hours ago, jj3jordan said: Don’t forget FL. FL is a statistical tie. Half that state's population doesn't deserve to be punished like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,482 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 18 hours ago, SocialCircle said: We agree that if Trump loses he will say it was rigged. As long as he loses, I'll somehow soldier on knowing that Little Hands stays true to form and cries that it was rigged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 12,865 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 7 hours ago, jj3jordan said: Don’t forget FL. Maybe the panhandle. Though I’m convinced if his cultish followers had him locked down as emperor with no librul opposition to rail against, folks would only then start to realize how pathetic he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jj3jordan 2,052 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 2 hours ago, TitanTiger said: FL is a statistical tie. Half that state's population doesn't deserve to be punished like that. It’s the northern liberals moving to Florida to escape the hell they created at their previous homes that are responsible for the tie. Then they want to bring their failed political philosophy to our fair state. No thanks. They do deserve to be “punished like that”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,482 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, jj3jordan said: It’s the northern liberals moving to Florida to escape the hell they created at their previous homes that are responsible for the tie. Then they want to bring their failed political philosophy to our fair state. No thanks. They do deserve to be “punished like that”. Since the Great Depression, Florida has voted for Republicans for President 12 times and Democrats 10 times. Since the Reagan realignment in 1980, they've voted 7 times for the GOP and 3 times for the Dems. I hardly think northern liberals have caused any sort of recent shift. It's been a state that swings back and forth for almost 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jj3jordan 2,052 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, TitanTiger said: Since the Great Depression, Florida has voted for Republicans for President 12 times and Democrats 10 times. Since the Reagan realignment in 1980, they've voted 7 times for the GOP and 3 times for the Dems. I hardly think northern liberals have caused any sort of recent shift. It's been a state that swings back and forth for almost 100 years. Are you disputing that northern liberals are moving to Florida and bringing their failed political philosophy with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,482 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Just now, jj3jordan said: Are you disputing that northern liberals are moving to Florida and bringing their failed political philosophy with them? I'm disputing that some influx of northern liberals has changed what Florida has been for a long time before the migration was really much of a thing. Florida has long been a state that is split down the middle and swings back and forth election to election. Even before any influx of northern libs, it was essentially two or three states rolled into one. The northern part and the panhandle is more of a spiritual cousin to Alabama and Georgia. The central part is mixed and south Florida with its high Cuban and Hispanic populations has been blue for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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