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bigbird

By bigbird
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McLoofus Founding Father

McLoofus 35,182

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Aside from Titan already so deftly swatting away the idea that "northern liberals are turning Florida blue", lol at failed northern political philosophy. Northeastern states dominate southeastern states in literally every important metric for standard of living. It's not even close. If it wasn't for northern liberals, all of Florida would be just like northern Florida, which is just as bass ackwards dumb ass redneck as most of the states it touches. 

ALSO, as a resident of an area that is also heavily influenced by northeastern transplants (although not nearly as much so as by Ohio transplants :( ), I don't think you're painting an accurate picture of what percentage of those transplants are liberal. If I meet a New Yorker where I live, they're just as likely to pull red as blue. Probably more so, actually. 

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jj3jordan Founding Father

jj3jordan 2,053

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4 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I'm disputing that some influx of northern liberals has changed what Florida has been for a long time before the migration was really much of a thing.  Florida has long been a state that is split down the middle and swings back and forth election to election.

Even before any influx of northern libs, it was essentially two or three states rolled into one.  The northern part and the panhandle is more of a spiritual cousin to Alabama and Georgia.  The central part is mixed and south Florida with its high Cuban and Hispanic populations has been blue for a long time.  

Last 5 were very close. Bush won by 537 votes in 2000 then a small margin in 04. 08 and 12 Obama. 16 again very close. 19-13 Republican before that according to you. To me that seems like a narrowing of the divide.  Doesn’t seem that hard to assess but thanks for the lecture on demographics.

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,482

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Just now, jj3jordan said:

Last 5 were very close. Bush won by 537 votes in 2000 then a small margin in 04. 08 and 12 Obama. 16 again very close. 19-13 Republican before that according to you. To me that seems like a narrowing of the divide.  Doesn’t seem that hard to assess but thanks for the lecture on demographics.

Florida has been a state that swings back and forth between Democrats and Republicans for a long time.  Long before any influx of northern liberals.  Before the Great Depression, they were reliably Democrat for decades.  It is what it is.  It's never been a reliable conservative monolith the way Alabama or Mississippi have been for instance.

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homersapien Founding Father

homersapien 11,373

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6 hours ago, jj3jordan said:

It’s the northern liberals moving to Florida to escape the hell they created at their previous homes that are responsible for the tie.... 

Northern liberals created winter??  You heard it hear first folks!  :laugh:

(Everyone should ignore this jackass.)

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bigbird Founding Father

bigbird 60,525

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On 9/13/2020 at 8:50 PM, homersapien said:

So, will you believe him?  If not, why?

Nope. Because the past few years has proven how difficult national election rigging is

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Brad_ATX Founding Father

Brad_ATX 13,654

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New polling from Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Key takeaways: Biden is up in both.  Wisconsin is a double digits lead while NC is 3 pts and within the margin of error.  Both polls taken after the Woodward interview became public.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/poll-biden-trump-wisconsin-north-carolina-415262

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Auburnfan91 Founding Father

Auburnfan91 1,407

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The Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm that predicted Trump would win Michigan and one of the only one's that predicted he would win Pennsylvania in 2016.

They were also according to RealClearPolitics the most accurate polling firm in 2018 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.html

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AUDub Founding Father

AUDub 11,148

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25 minutes ago, Auburnfan91 said:

The Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm that predicted Trump would win Michigan and one of the only one's that predicted he would win Pennsylvania in 2016.

They were also according to RealClearPolitics the most accurate polling firm in 2018 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.html

Careful. Trafalgar is a republican polling firm with a well known right wing bias and a C- from fivethirtyeight.com. Take anything from them with a serious grain of salt.

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Brad_ATX Founding Father

Brad_ATX 13,654

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Minnesota and Wisconsin poll out today

Biden +16 in Minnesota

Biden +6 in Wisconsin

The Minnesota number feels like a bit of an outlier based on recent figures from the state.  Need to see more polls come out near that spread to take it more seriously.  Wisconsin is closer to what we've been seeing recently there.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/16/swing-state-poll-biden-minnesota-415848

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,482

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4 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Minnesota and Wisconsin poll out today

Biden +16 in Minnesota

Biden +6 in Wisconsin

The Minnesota number feels like a bit of an outlier based on recent figures from the state.  Need to see more polls come out near that spread to take it more seriously.  Wisconsin is closer to what we've been seeing recently there.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/16/swing-state-poll-biden-minnesota-415848

I agree.  When you look at the RCP average and see that the most recent four polls have Biden's lead at a tick over 8 points, 16 feels like someone's model post-processing is off.  Unless some more polls that show a sharp uptick in support for Biden there come out in the next few days, I'm skeptical.

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AUDub Founding Father

AUDub 11,148

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Rasmussen dropped a poll that has Trump +1. 

Not particularly worried, since they predicted the Rs would win the House generic ballot in 2018 by 1. The actual margin was Ds by 9 lol. 

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Auburnfan91 Founding Father

Auburnfan91 1,407

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16 hours ago, AUDub said:

Careful. Trafalgar is a republican polling firm with a well known right wing bias and a C- from fivethirtyeight.com. Take anything from them with a serious grain of salt.

That is such an oversimplistic take.

They still have to be more accurate than not or else their business takes a hit. 

Quote

Trafalgar is not a broken clock that gets rewarded for always pointing toward GOP victories. For example, it showed Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow leading by nine points in its final poll of Michigan in 2018; Stabenow defeated Republican John James by six points. Trafalgar showed Montana Democrat Jon Tester leading by one point in 2018; he won by three points. According to aFiveThirtyEight analysis of 48 Trafalgar polls, the pollster is on average biased 0.9 points in favor of Republicans.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-winning-in-wisconsin-and-michigan/

 

Trafalgar were also the only poll in the last week leading up to the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election that didn't have Andrew Gillum leading.

 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html#polls

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,482

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18 minutes ago, Auburnfan91 said:

That is such an oversimplistic take.

They still have to be more accurate than not or else their business takes a hit. 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-winning-in-wisconsin-and-michigan/

 

Trafalgar were also the only poll in the last week leading up to the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election that didn't have Andrew Gillum leading.

 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html#polls

I think it would be exceedingly rare for any polling firm that plans to make money to go see 9 point margins in their polling data for one candidate and lie to make it look like a horserace.  Where the various polling firms that make their payroll by polling primarily or exclusively for Democrats or Republicans might show their bias is when the race is close or the winner/loser is within the margin of error.

Trafalgar's track record over time is just so-so compared to other firms and it's not a matter of opinion.  The polling data and the final results for the races they poll for are there in black and white for anyone to see.

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,482

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1 hour ago, AUDub said:

Rasmussen dropped a poll that has Trump +1. 

Not particularly worried, since they predicted the Rs would win the House generic ballot in 2018 by 1. The actual margin was Ds by 9 lol. 

Rasmussen has really dropped off in reliability recently.  They were one of the stronger polling firms in the first decade of the 2000s.

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AUDub Founding Father

AUDub 11,148

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18 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Rasmussen has really dropped off in reliability recently.  They were one of the stronger polling firms in the first decade of the 2000s.

They've dropped any pretense of neutrality. 

 

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