Battlegrounds

[AUDub 11,148]

On 7/15/2020 at 9:11 AM, Brad_ATX said:

Updated swing state polls out today.  Key takeaways:

• Arizona: Biden 51%, Trump 45% 
• Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 43% 
• Michigan: Biden 48%, Trump 42% 
• North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 46% 
• Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 42% 
• Wisconsin: Biden 48%, Trump 42%

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/2020-election-news-donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-swing-state-polls.html

Jeez most of those are outside the upper bound of a normal polling error. Trump better be glad the election is still months away. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, AUDub said:

Jeez most of those are outside the upper bound of a normal polling error. Trump better be glad the election is still months away. 

I'm actually beginning to focus more on the Senate.  Unless the polling dramatically changes in the Presidential race, I think the Senate is where the drama will end up being.

[homersapien 11,372]

3 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Been saying for a while the race comes down to the suburbs.  Latest from several pollsters has Biden up anywhere from 15-20 points in the burbs.  Good recap here.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/19/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-suburban-voters-polling/index.html

"Biden's lead in the suburbs is reflective of him doing significantly better than Hillary Clinton. Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters."

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

17 minutes ago, homersapien said:

"Biden's lead in the suburbs is reflective of him doing significantly better than Hillary Clinton. Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters."

 

It's a monster shift that I don't think people are paying enough attention to.  Exact reason why I've not been concerned with the progressive voter turnout.  Win the burbs and you win everything.

[homersapien 11,372]

On 7/19/2020 at 3:05 PM, Brad_ATX said:

It's a monster shift that I don't think people are paying enough attention to.  Exact reason why I've not been concerned with the progressive voter turnout.  Win the burbs and you win everything.

I really want to see a huge turnout, even if it's not necessary.

What's really intriguing to me - even while being morbidly horrifying and scary - is the potential effect a worsening pandemic will have by November. If things proceed like I think they will, this may be the most lopsided election in history.

That may sound like I am hoping from a political standpoint for the pandemic to get worse, but that's not the case. 

As a high risk candidate, I am very fearful I - or my wife, or my mother - will get infected.  This is exactly why after hearing Dr. Francis Collins this morning, I started trying to sign up for a vaccine clinical trial.  (Even though there will probably be a 50% chance I will get a placebo injection in such a trial, it's worth the risk to me.)  The NIH is particularly interested in volunteers from the South, for obvious reasons.

While I would love for something miraculous to happen that would enable us to get control of this pandemic before November, I just don't see such a miracle happening. 

You still see GOP resistance to mask wearing and there is obviously no political will for them to oppose Trump to embark on a massive federal effort to improve testing and contact tracing nationwide. And while there may be scattered success with Trump's "back to school" push, there's likely to be some negative results from that as well. Due to their positions and statements, the current administration will most certainly own any problems associated with that.  (That will further push the suburbs.)

And finally, there may not be enough time left between now and Nov. for Trump to do anything to effectively control the pandemic, even if he decided to.

So the "pandemic response" effect may largely be already baked-into the election.  But it will get even bigger as things get worse, as I think they are likely to do.  And don't forget the economic crisis associated with the pandemic which is almost certainly to get worse.

I am gob-smacked by the apparent cluelessness of most Republicans regarding the political effect as the health and economic situation likely worsen. (See Georgia Gov. Kemp for a prime example.)

It's inexplicable.

What am I missing????
 

 

 

 

 

[homersapien 11,372]

......... It’s all about coronavirus

It’s not a coincidence that all three of the polls out over the past week showing Trump trailing badly also show a marked decline in voter opinions of his response to the coronavirus crisis.

In the Quinnipiac poll, only 35 percent of voters said they approve of Trump’s response to the coronavirus, down from 42 percent a month ago. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump’s approval on the virus took a similar plunge, going from 43 percent in June to 37 percent in July.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/19/biden-trump-polls-matchup-369261

[alexava 6,973]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cleveland.com/open/2020/07/ex-gov-john-kasich-slated-to-speak-at-the-democratic-national-convention-for-joe-biden.html%3foutputType=amp

[homersapien 11,372]

18 hours ago, alexava said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cleveland.com/open/2020/07/ex-gov-john-kasich-slated-to-speak-at-the-democratic-national-convention-for-joe-biden.html%3foutputType=amp

Sensible Republicans - the ones with a shred of integrity remaining - are already preparing for the "Trump-recovery" in the GOP. 

The "Lincoln Project" is the premier example.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, homersapien said:

Sensible Republicans - the ones with a shred of integrity remaining - are already preparing for the "Trump-recovery" in the GOP. 

The "Lincoln Project" is the premier example.

Here's the thing.  America needs a true, conservative party and voice that is made for a modern world.  What the GOP has morphed into is not that.

[homersapien 11,372]

7 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Here's the thing.  America needs a true, conservative party and voice that is made for a modern world.  What the GOP has morphed into is not that.

I agree completely. 

But I really don't care if it takes 20 years for it to happen. In fact, I hope it does, and it may. After all, it took longer than that for them to devolve into the party of white nationalism.

 

[alexava 6,973]

22 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Here's the thing.  America needs a true, conservative party and voice that is made for a modern world.  What the GOP has morphed into is not that.

Both parties are going in wrong and opposite directions. 

[homersapien 11,372]

24 minutes ago, alexava said:

Both parties are going in wrong and opposite directions. 

What is the "wrong" direction you think the Democrats are going in?

Is there anything about Biden's platform that you consider represents a fundamentally wrong direction?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

42 minutes ago, alexava said:

Both parties are going in wrong and opposite directions. 

I'm not sure I agree with that and here's why.  Look who has the power in the Democratic party.  It's centrist candidates.  The far left doesn't have nearly the amount of influence as people think that they do.

[alexava 6,973]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm not sure I agree with that and here's why.  Look who has the power in the Democratic party.  It's centrist candidates.  The far left doesn't have nearly the amount of influence as people think that they do.

Maybe I let the news influence my comment on the path of the party. I just don’t see many on either side willing to work together. It’s not a good situation. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

22 minutes ago, alexava said:

Maybe I let the news influence my comment on the path of the party. I just don’t see many on either side willing to work together. It’s not a good situation. 

Well it's true that neither party wants to work together.  However, that doesn't mean that the mainstream portion of the Democratic party in particular isn't moderate.  There's nothing radical about Schumer, Biden, etc al.  In reality, folks like AOC have very little power/sway in national Democratic politics.

[alexava 6,973]

3 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Well it's true that neither party wants to work together.  However, that doesn't mean that the mainstream portion of the Democratic party in particular isn't moderate.  There's nothing radical about Schumer, Biden, etc al.  In reality, folks like AOC have very little power/sway in national Democratic politics.

How is it she gets so much press?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 minute ago, alexava said:

How is it she gets so much press?

1) She's media friendly and seeks out media attention to further her platform.  I disagree with large parts of her platform, but that's actually a very smart thing to do.

2) She's the right wing's latest boogeyman, so Fox and the like will talk non-stop about her as a scare tactic.

Pay attention and you'll see that the loudest in Washington are usually the ones with the least influence/power.  Look at Bernie and Rand Paul as an example.  They rarely get their legislative priorities passed into law.  Why?  Because they are outside of the mainstream of their party.

Mitch McConnell on the other hand?  Dude doesn't say too much but he gets what he wants.  I can't stand the prick yet have to admit that he's ruthlessly effective.

[aubiefifty 16,789]

On 5/29/2020 at 11:07 AM, autigeremt said:

Once again you are oblivious. And blind (I have stated numerous times that I do not support orange man in charge). 
 

freedom or bust 

why you gotta pick on blind people? why not just call him a big dummy?

[homersapien 11,372]

5 hours ago, alexava said:

How is it she gets so much press?

Republicans.

(Or at least the right wing spinmeisters.)

[alexava 6,973]

22 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Republicans.

(Or at least the right wing spinmeisters.)

On CNN?

[homersapien 11,372]

44 minutes ago, alexava said:

On CNN?

I don't watch CNN. 

But I thought you were asking why she gets so much attention.  That comes from Republicans IMO. She is apparently pretty skilled at evoking a response from them, if not her fellow Democrats. Otherwise, she's just a freshman congressman who happens to be a Muslim. 

And I say, good for her. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

30 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I don't watch CNN. 

But I thought you were asking why she gets so much attention.  That comes from Republicans IMO. She is apparently pretty skilled at evoking a response from them, if not her fellow Democrats. Otherwise, she's just a freshman congressman who happens to be a Muslim. 

And I say, good for her. 

AOC is Catholic as an FYI

[McLoofus 35,182]

I mean, we have to remember that the GOP's entire focus starting the day that Obama was elected was to block every single thing the Dems attempted to do, without regard for whether or not it was good legislation. They explicitly stated this as their goal. And then they elected Francis from Pee Wee's Big Adventure.  This is similar to the "Biden is just as bad as Trump" line of thinking. It's not a valid comparison. It's just not. 

[homersapien 11,372]

9 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

AOC is Catholic as an FYI

whoops!  I was confusing her with Ihlan Omar.  My bad.  Thanks for the correction.

But AOC is a liberal, and that's just as bad.  

[homersapien 11,372]

Speaking of AOC:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/21/democrats-defend-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-yoho-376190

Dems defend Ocasio-Cortez after tense exchange with GOP lawmaker

Rep. Ted Yoho reportedly directed profanity toward the progressive lawmaker.