2021 win total

[japantiger 4,052]

Our defense has a long way to go...we were just plain bad last year.

90th in TOP

89th on snaps

121st on third down stops...I don't think that many D1 teams even played last year.

Gave up nearly 6 yards per play on 1st down

74th on plays given up over 10 yds

75th pass effficiency defense

99th in completion % surrendered

69th in pass plays over 15 yds

114th in defending 3rd down passes...teams converted 45% of 3rd down throws

86th in generating -ve plays

 

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/Article/StatTiger-Column-Auburn-football-defense-has-work-to-do-165724504/

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by japantiger

[DAG 34,034]

8 minutes ago, japantiger said:

Our defense has a long way to go...we were just plain bad last year.

90th in TOP

89th on snaps

121st on third down stops...I don't think that many D1 teams even played last year.

Gave up nearly 6 yards per play on 1st down

74th on plays given up over 10 yds

75th pass effficiency defense

99th in completion % surrendered

69th in pass plays over 15 yds

114th in defending 3rd down passes...teams converted 45% of 3rd down throws

86th in generating -ve plays

 

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/Article/StatTiger-Column-Auburn-football-defense-has-work-to-do-165724504/

 

I have a good feeling the defense will be remarkable this year. I am talking top 3 in the SEC. The offense on the other hand...

[gravejd 3,272]

49 minutes ago, DAG said:

I have a good feeling the defense will be remarkable this year. I am talking top 3 in the SEC. The offense on the other hand...

Having a top 3 defense while breaking in a new scheme would be crazy impressive. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, gravejd said:

Having a top 3 defense while breaking in a new scheme would be crazy impressive. 

Fair and Pegues might have a lot to say about that. If they are players, then the 3-4 might fit our personnel better this year than the 4-3 did last year. 

[johnnyAU 3,668]

7 W's sounds about right to me actually

[DAG 34,034]

8 minutes ago, gravejd said:

Having a top 3 defense while breaking in a new scheme would be crazy impressive. 

This is my BOLD prediction lol. It might not equate to 9-10 wins but I think it will at least get us to 8 and make us competitive in most of them. Bama always worries me. 

[ScotsAU 1,343]

I’m putting my money on 7-8. I’m still unsure of how I feel about this coaching staff. I mostly liked the Harsin hire. But I’ve always thought Bobo was incompetent. My questions are 1. How has our OL improved? 2. Is Bobo really the quarterback whisperer everyone thinks he is? (People said the same thing about Chad Morris last year.) 3. How involved will Harsin be on offense? Because Bobo’s 1990’s power run offense isn’t going to cut it.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

I have a good feeling the defense will be remarkable this year. I am talking top 3 in the SEC. The offense on the other hand...

I'd love to see. I like some pieces and potential of certain guys.  If everyone plays well and develops, I think you could be close

[DAG 34,034]

18 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

I'd love to see. I like some pieces and potential of certain guys.  If everyone plays well and develops, I think you could be close

Two major areas I want to see us succeed at are 3rd and long improvement and being more turnover prone. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

10 minutes ago, DAG said:

Two major areas I want to see us succeed at are 3rd and long improvement and being more turnover prone. 

We've got to be able to get some edge pressure on the QB.  We've had no one since Sensei Mud.  Hall has to step up and maybe we get some better blitzes from LBs.  Pappoe seemed to blitz well in some occasions. 

[casatiger 514]

6 wins but I'm a pessimist when it comes to Auburn sports.  

[gravejd 3,272]

19 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

We've got to be able to get some edge pressure on the QB.  We've had no one since Sensei Mud.  Hall has to step up and maybe we get some better blitzes from LBs.  Pappoe seemed to blitz well in some occasions. 

Generating more pressure is something i hope/think the new scheme will give us immediately. I've always loved the 3-4 because it makes the OLs job soooo much harder to figure out where the pressure is coming from without the need to blitz with secondary guys. Now run fits and coverage schemes with the new defense concern me but getting QB pressure should be much better. 

My concern with the new defense is up the middle. Do we have the guys on the DL that require 2 people to block them? If not and the other team can get OL on our LBs then we'll get gashed. I love what Pappoe and McClain bring to the table but i don't think they are the type that can win too many battles when they are getting engaged by the OL. 

[gravejd 3,272]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

Fair and Pegues might have a lot to say about that. If they are players, then the 3-4 might fit our personnel better this year than the 4-3 did last year. 

Pegues as a NT?!? 😍

I don't know if he can play the spot but i would love what he brings to the table if he can!

[gr82be 14,507]

13 minutes ago, casatiger said:

6 wins but I'm a pessimist when it comes to Auburn sports.  

A solid pessimist. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

Because Bobo’s 1990’s power run offense isn’t going to cut it.

Bobo threw the ball a ton at UGA and CSU.  I'm not that pumped on him alone, but I don't think he's awful.

[W.E.D 11,070]

19 minutes ago, gravejd said:

Generating more pressure is something i hope/think the new scheme will give us immediately. I've always loved the 3-4 because it makes the OLs job soooo much harder to figure out where the pressure is coming from without the need to blitz with secondary guys. Now run fits and coverage schemes with the new defense concern me but getting QB pressure should be much better. 

My concern with the new defense is up the middle. Do we have the guys on the DL that require 2 people to block them? If not and the other team can get OL on our LBs then we'll get gashed. I love what Pappoe and McClain bring to the table but i don't think they are the type that can win too many battles when they are getting engaged by the OL. 

Basically have to hope Fair can be that guy and Hunter can come along and be solid in a portion of the snaps.  We've got some bodies between the 3 DL spots.

[Randman5000 4,235]

W Sept. 4 - AKRON
W Sept. 11 - ALABAMA STATE
L Sept. 18 - at Penn State
W Sept. 25 - GEORGIA STATE
W Oct. 2 - at LSU
L Oct. 9 - GEORGIA
W Oct. 16 - at Arkansas
Oct. 23 - Open Date
W Oct. 30 - OLE MISS
L Nov. 6 - at Texas A&M
W Nov. 13 - MISSISSIPPI STATE
W Nov. 20 - at South Carolina
L Nov. 27 - ALABAMA

I'm think 8 wins at most, there could be another loss as LSU or Arkansas may give us a challenge as well. Should be an interesting year. Kind of worried about the passing game and WRs. Looking forward to a full recruiting year and development under this staff.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Randman5000

[casatiger 514]

3 hours ago, gr82be said:

A solid pessimist. 

Setting myself up to be pleasantly surprised when we win 8.   

[woodford 3,678]

On 5/27/2021 at 2:42 PM, W.E.D said:

11.5 is pretty effing ridiculous win total for Bama/Clemson

Agreed. It sounds foolish to say Bama won’t hit that over but I’m all in on Georgia this year. I think Alabama wins the west while dropping a regular season game and losing the SECCG. Perhaps they win their bowl game to hit the over? 

[woodford 3,678]

19 hours ago, japantiger said:

Our defense has a long way to go...we were just plain bad last year.

90th in TOP

89th on snaps

121st on third down stops...I don't think that many D1 teams even played last year.

Gave up nearly 6 yards per play on 1st down

74th on plays given up over 10 yds

75th pass effficiency defense

99th in completion % surrendered

69th in pass plays over 15 yds

114th in defending 3rd down passes...teams converted 45% of 3rd down throws

86th in generating -ve plays

 

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/Article/StatTiger-Column-Auburn-football-defense-has-work-to-do-165724504/

 

Dreadful defense from a squad who looked like they’d rather be home playing video games all season. Defense will snap back almost immediately with better leadership imo 

 

I’m a little optimistic, but I see 9 wins. They lose hard fought games to UGA, TAMU, and Ole Miss. 

They finally win in BR, beat PSU on the road, and win another epic game against Alabama that will open up the possibility for a NY6 Bowl. I believe in momentum and this is an emotional sport. I just see this season possibly shaking out like this. If I’m wrong then I’m wrong. 

[meh130 1,054]

On 5/27/2021 at 2:37 PM, tsande07 said:

8 plus/minus 2

That is about where I am at. Somewhere between 7 and 9. I just can't see us dropping 6.

Penn State is a big unknown, but on the road.

LSU is going to be good this year, but we may be due for a win in Baton Rouge (which I tell myself every other year).

We have UGA at home, and sometimes magic happens.

A&M on the road may be the toughest game we play this year.

We have Alabama at home.

Trap games:

Arkansas in Fayetteville. If we beat UGA, we would be prime for a letdown. If we lose to UGA, we may be playing with a chip on our shoulder.

Ole Miss at home worries me less. We have an open date before it. And my hope is, with Harsin, we go back to improving coming out of open dates.

This is why I struggle to see us losing 6. If we lose to UGA, we likely beat Arkansas. And we have an open date before Ole Miss. That should mean at least 7 wins. That leaves the 5 bigger opponents: Penn State, LSU, UGA, Texas A&M, and Bama.

Of course, we could beat UGA, then have a letdown against Arkansas, leaving us at 7 wins. Or beat LSU, and come home, have a letdown, and get drubbed by UGA.

Our defense is going to keep us in a lot of games. A few bounces the right way could make a big difference, which is why I think there is some upside.

Which is why 8 seems to be a good number.

[meh130 1,054]

3 hours ago, woodford said:

Dreadful defense from a squad who looked like they’d rather be home playing video games all season. Defense will snap back almost immediately with better leadership imo 

How much of that was due to the reported dysfunction on the defensive staff?

I'm with you. Talent wise, our defense is going to be stacked. Coaching leadership wise, two words: Derek Mason.

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

Depending on how things shake out at QB, I may change my thoughts here. (And come the season I will do what I always do and pick AU as a fan to win every game.) But for now...

I see five and possibly six losses this season. Our Tigers open 2-0 with what amounts to scrimmages against Akron and Alabama State. Third game is against Penn State in Happy Valley. I see 2-1 at that point.

Georgia State is up next. Mark down another win. 3-1. And then the trials and tribulations begin...

Auburn is at LSU next. If the Corndogs do what is expected, we're likely 3-2.

Then come the Dawgs of UGA. Is this our year? Nope. 3-3.

Not sure if the next game is in Fayetteville or Little Rock. Either way, it's Arky in October. 4-3

Then we get Ole Miss at home. The Bearbels with Kiffin kind of scare me. I figure both Mississippi teams will be better this season and I would not be surprised to see our Tigers split those two games. But this is at Jordan-Hare. 5-3

Up next is a road trip to aTm. Everyone tells me Jimbo is a great coach. Dunno if I agree but still a loss. 5-4.

MSU is also at AU. (Might need to rethink that split. Well...nah. If we win Ole Miss we lose this one. If we lose Ole Miss we win this one.) 5-5

Next comes the Gamecocks of Shane Beamer on the road. It's a win. 6-5.

We close the season in Jordan-Hare against some team from West Vance. They ain't got a chance, unless they do. 6-6

Now to be clear none of this is an indictment on Harsin or any of the new staff. I just think they have a tough row to hoe. And never forget that Pat Dye didn't have a winning season in his first year and that turned out OK.

War Eagle!

 

Edited June 3, 2021 by CleCoTiger

[DAG 34,034]

It so interesting how people come up with conclusions. Like I feel if Gus had this same roster some of you would be giving a whole sale of different Victories

[woodford 3,678]

3 hours ago, meh130 said:

How much of that was due to the reported dysfunction on the defensive staff?

I'm with you. Talent wise, our defense is going to be stacked. Coaching leadership wise, two words: Derek Mason.

I don’t know for sure. Just speculation on my part. They didn’t look disciplined, organized, or like they cared at (see USC and Alabama games). 
 

Defense needs attitude and energy. I think they’ll have both this fall.