Auburn Offensive Metrics Through Week 7

[woodford 3,682]

Auburn has trouble scoring points and they have issues at QB. Everyone knows this but I wanted to look a little deeper. Halloween is definitely around the corner because I found some scary stuff! But, there could be some good candy amongst all this licorice. (sorry for the terrible Halloween puns).

I went and pulled data pertaining to explosiveness, PPA (predicted points added), Efficiency, Finishing Drives, Passing offense, and Rushing offense and how they rank nationally. This data excludes garbage time. 

Right out the gate I want to mention Auburn ranks 109th in third down conversion rate at 33%. Out of 75 third downs, the Tigers have converted 25 of them. Not converting on third down is probably the main reason why we lost to Georgia IMO 

This is all from CollegeFotballData.com their definition of Explosiveness below

Explosiveness measures the average PPA on plays which were marked as successful. 

Auburn is predicted to score 0.89 points on explosive plays on standard downs. That's good for 127th nationally. Note - There are 133 teams in FBS.

 

Predicted Points Added

Auburn is outside the top 100 in PPA in total offense PPA, total PPA, Passing Downs PPA, and Passing Plays PPA. Don't expect Auburn to do much of anything on passing downs or passing plays.

Passing Downs are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go.

 

Efficiency

This one is a little odd. Passing Downs Success Rate is horrible at 94th. Inside the top 25 in Rushing Plays Success Rate at 50%. They have a 50/50 chance of a successful play when they run the ball. They have had positives in success rate, but it's not leading to any points.

 

 

Finishing Drives

This might be the most infuriating metrics I came across. We know Auburn can't finish drives (33% third down conversion rate) but what makes it even worse is that we're getting good/decent field position. Inside the top 25 in Avg Field Position Start. From that Avg Field Position, Auburn is top 25 in Avg PP. The problem is they're not actually getting any points. They're had 34 total opportunities and are averaging 3.94 points per opportunity. That's good for 68th in the country. Note, both of Auburn's TD's against Georgia came when they started their drives in Georgia territory. Opportunities doesn't necessarily mean they marched the ball down the field. It's just being inside the opponent's 40 yard line.

 

Passing Metrics

We all know the QB position has struggled this year. Well, it's probably worse than you think. Outside the top 100 in 6 categories. The best category is ranked 68th. They throw it 42% of the time which isn't that much but when they do throw it they get basically no production with 0.113 PPA. When they do throw it the success rate is terrible and their total PPA for passing plays is only 16 points. All the passing plays this year not in garbage points have been worth 16 points. For reference, LSU's is 128 points. They lead the nation in that category. Washington and OU are 2nd and third. Here are some teams that have BETTER total passing PPA than Auburn: Kent State, Uconn, Sam Houston, and Jax State.

When Auburn throws the ball it's not successful, nor explosive, nor gives any indications that it will lead to points. If it's a passing down, just go ahead and assume it will lead to nothing.

 

Rushing Metrics

I saved the best for last. There's not as many metrics for rushing as passing but it gives you a good idea of how Auburn has run the ball so far. Top 25 in rate of rushing plays and success rate. Not only are the running the ball they actually have success. Now, it's not an overly powerful rushing attack with only 37 total PPA and a PPA of 0.19 per rushing play but it's much better than the passing attack. Explosiveness is not great but it's two spots better than the Crimson Tide believe it or not.

 

 

 

Want to hear my useless opinion? Run the ball more. The numbers show that Auburn has more success on the ground than they do in the air. Does that mean rolling with RA? I don't know. I'd like to see heavy RPO with PT and make defenses bite and hopefully give him some easy throws to wide open guys.

 

[Hank2020 3,228]

Great data!!

[Win4AU 4,055]

I’d like to see this offense compared to the 2012 team.  At least Auburn had a 1,000 yard rusher that year.  When was the last time that happened?

[woodford 3,682]

17 hours ago, Win4AU said:

I’d like to see this offense compared to the 2012 team.  At least Auburn had a 1,000 yard rusher that year.  When was the last time that happened?

It's a shame Tank didn't have an OL. He would've had multiple 1K+ yards rushing years.

[aubiefifty 17,353]

On 10/17/2023 at 1:35 PM, woodford said:

Auburn has trouble scoring points and they have issues at QB. Everyone knows this but I wanted to look a little deeper. Halloween is definitely around the corner because I found some scary stuff! But, there could be some good candy amongst all this licorice. (sorry for the terrible Halloween puns).

I went and pulled data pertaining to explosiveness, PPA (predicted points added), Efficiency, Finishing Drives, Passing offense, and Rushing offense and how they rank nationally. This data excludes garbage time. 

Right out the gate I want to mention Auburn ranks 109th in third down conversion rate at 33%. Out of 75 third downs, the Tigers have converted 25 of them. Not converting on third down is probably the main reason why we lost to Georgia IMO 

This is all from CollegeFotballData.com their definition of Explosiveness below

Explosiveness measures the average PPA on plays which were marked as successful. 

Auburn is predicted to score 0.89 points on explosive plays on standard downs. That's good for 127th nationally. Note - There are 133 teams in FBS.

 

Predicted Points Added

Auburn is outside the top 100 in PPA in total offense PPA, total PPA, Passing Downs PPA, and Passing Plays PPA. Don't expect Auburn to do much of anything on passing downs or passing plays.

Passing Downs are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go.

 

Efficiency

This one is a little odd. Passing Downs Success Rate is horrible at 94th. Inside the top 25 in Rushing Plays Success Rate at 50%. They have a 50/50 chance of a successful play when they run the ball. They have had positives in success rate, but it's not leading to any points.

 

 

Finishing Drives

This might be the most infuriating metrics I came across. We know Auburn can't finish drives (33% third down conversion rate) but what makes it even worse is that we're getting good/decent field position. Inside the top 25 in Avg Field Position Start. From that Avg Field Position, Auburn is top 25 in Avg PP. The problem is they're not actually getting any points. They're had 34 total opportunities and are averaging 3.94 points per opportunity. That's good for 68th in the country. Note, both of Auburn's TD's against Georgia came when they started their drives in Georgia territory. Opportunities doesn't necessarily mean they marched the ball down the field. It's just being inside the opponent's 40 yard line.

 

Passing Metrics

We all know the QB position has struggled this year. Well, it's probably worse than you think. Outside the top 100 in 6 categories. The best category is ranked 68th. They throw it 42% of the time which isn't that much but when they do throw it they get basically no production with 0.113 PPA. When they do throw it the success rate is terrible and their total PPA for passing plays is only 16 points. All the passing plays this year not in garbage points have been worth 16 points. For reference, LSU's is 128 points. They lead the nation in that category. Washington and OU are 2nd and third. Here are some teams that have BETTER total passing PPA than Auburn: Kent State, Uconn, Sam Houston, and Jax State.

When Auburn throws the ball it's not successful, nor explosive, nor gives any indications that it will lead to points. If it's a passing down, just go ahead and assume it will lead to nothing.

 

Rushing Metrics

I saved the best for last. There's not as many metrics for rushing as passing but it gives you a good idea of how Auburn has run the ball so far. Top 25 in rate of rushing plays and success rate. Not only are the running the ball they actually have success. Now, it's not an overly powerful rushing attack with only 37 total PPA and a PPA of 0.19 per rushing play but it's much better than the passing attack. Explosiveness is not great but it's two spots better than the Crimson Tide believe it or not.

 

 

 

Want to hear my useless opinion? Run the ball more. The numbers show that Auburn has more success on the ground than they do in the air. Does that mean rolling with RA? I don't know. I'd like to see heavy RPO with PT and make defenses bite and hopefully give him some easy throws to wide open guys.

 

you sir do not have a single hair on your butt cheeks if you do not mail a copy of this to the coaching staff...............grins

[aubiefifty 17,353]

On 10/17/2023 at 2:49 PM, Hank2020 said:

Great data!!

hank for a minute i thought you said great date and no idea you guys were a thing?!!!   grins i am just picking hank................

[Hank2020 3,228]

2 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

hank for a minute i thought you said great date and no idea you guys were a thing?!!!   grins i am just picking hank................

I guess I need to use information instead of data!! Lol

[AU120289 382]

CliffsNotes Version:

The Offense is bad. What we do well we choose not to do it enough. 

[woodford 3,682]

13 minutes ago, AU120289 said:

CliffsNotes Version:

The Offense is bad. What we do well we choose not to do it enough. 

Yes, I was on a tangent and forgot to summarize it! 

[HAYinthemiddleoftheBARN 209]

Hey Woodford, good post! I like your Bourbon too! Cheers 🥃

[AU120289 382]

2 hours ago, woodford said:

Yes, I was on a tangent and forgot to summarize it! 

It was good stuff. Thanks for putting it together. 

[AURex 2,084]

On 10/17/2023 at 2:35 PM, woodford said:

Auburn has trouble scoring points and they have issues at QB. Everyone knows this but I wanted to look a little deeper. Halloween is definitely around the corner because I found some scary stuff! But, there could be some good candy amongst all this licorice. (sorry for the terrible Halloween puns).

I went and pulled data pertaining to explosiveness, PPA (predicted points added), Efficiency, Finishing Drives, Passing offense, and Rushing offense and how they rank nationally. This data excludes garbage time. 

Right out the gate I want to mention Auburn ranks 109th in third down conversion rate at 33%. Out of 75 third downs, the Tigers have converted 25 of them. Not converting on third down is probably the main reason why we lost to Georgia IMO 

This is all from CollegeFotballData.com their definition of Explosiveness below

Explosiveness measures the average PPA on plays which were marked as successful. 

Auburn is predicted to score 0.89 points on explosive plays on standard downs. That's good for 127th nationally. Note - There are 133 teams in FBS.

 

Predicted Points Added

Auburn is outside the top 100 in PPA in total offense PPA, total PPA, Passing Downs PPA, and Passing Plays PPA. Don't expect Auburn to do much of anything on passing downs or passing plays.

Passing Downs are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go.

 

Efficiency

This one is a little odd. Passing Downs Success Rate is horrible at 94th. Inside the top 25 in Rushing Plays Success Rate at 50%. They have a 50/50 chance of a successful play when they run the ball. They have had positives in success rate, but it's not leading to any points.

 

 

Finishing Drives

This might be the most infuriating metrics I came across. We know Auburn can't finish drives (33% third down conversion rate) but what makes it even worse is that we're getting good/decent field position. Inside the top 25 in Avg Field Position Start. From that Avg Field Position, Auburn is top 25 in Avg PP. The problem is they're not actually getting any points. They're had 34 total opportunities and are averaging 3.94 points per opportunity. That's good for 68th in the country. Note, both of Auburn's TD's against Georgia came when they started their drives in Georgia territory. Opportunities doesn't necessarily mean they marched the ball down the field. It's just being inside the opponent's 40 yard line.

 

Passing Metrics

We all know the QB position has struggled this year. Well, it's probably worse than you think. Outside the top 100 in 6 categories. The best category is ranked 68th. They throw it 42% of the time which isn't that much but when they do throw it they get basically no production with 0.113 PPA. When they do throw it the success rate is terrible and their total PPA for passing plays is only 16 points. All the passing plays this year not in garbage points have been worth 16 points. For reference, LSU's is 128 points. They lead the nation in that category. Washington and OU are 2nd and third. Here are some teams that have BETTER total passing PPA than Auburn: Kent State, Uconn, Sam Houston, and Jax State.

When Auburn throws the ball it's not successful, nor explosive, nor gives any indications that it will lead to points. If it's a passing down, just go ahead and assume it will lead to nothing.

 

Rushing Metrics

I saved the best for last. There's not as many metrics for rushing as passing but it gives you a good idea of how Auburn has run the ball so far. Top 25 in rate of rushing plays and success rate. Not only are the running the ball they actually have success. Now, it's not an overly powerful rushing attack with only 37 total PPA and a PPA of 0.19 per rushing play but it's much better than the passing attack. Explosiveness is not great but it's two spots better than the Crimson Tide believe it or not.

 

 

 

Want to hear my useless opinion? Run the ball more. The numbers show that Auburn has more success on the ground than they do in the air. Does that mean rolling with RA? I don't know. I'd like to see heavy RPO with PT and make defenses bite and hopefully give him some easy throws to wide open guys.

 

Thank you for pulling all this data together. Yes, seeing this kind of data when Auburn sux big donkeyballs is good, but I'd love to see this kind of data when Auburn is actually playing well and winning a few games. I hope you will contibue to offer up the analytics.

 

[woodford 3,682]

I bring more bad tidings. BCF Toys Available Yards through Week 7 

Overall, Auburn is ranked 103rd in Net Available Yards which is difference between offensive available yards percentage (OAY) and opponent offensive available yards percentage (DAY). It's a pretty hand stat to show how the offense is moving (or not moving) the ball.

"Available yards percentage is calculated by dividing drive yards (measured from starting field position to ending field position) by available yards (measured from starting field position to end zone)." 

Ex, If Auburn starts at the 20, and punts at the 35, their available yard % is 18.8% because 15 total yards divided by 80 is 0.1875

It shows how much of the available yards did you take advantage of on your drives is another way to look at it. These are national rankings. This is just offense. 

OAY - 33.1% (124th)

O20 - 37.2% (127th) This is available yard % measured from starting field position to the opponent 20 yard line

O40 - 43.2% (127th) This is available yard % measured from starting field position to the opponent 40 yard line

O60 - 49.4% (130th) This is available yard % measured from starting field position to Auburn's own 40 yard line

 

I don't have to tell you these numbers are horrendous. Auburn is almost dead last in available yard % just to get to their own 40.

[woodford 3,682]

If you need more evidence that Auburn can't move the ball. These are Yards Per Play metrics. Sort of related to available yards. These are updated through week 8. 

The percentages of offensive drives that average at least four yards per play gained (O4+) and allowed (D4+), at least seven yards per play gained (O7+) and at least ten yards per play gained (O10+) 

This is where they rank nationally. 

OPP (yards per offensive play) - 4.46 (122nd)

O4+ 44% (109th)

O7+ 19% (114th)

O10+ 6% (122nd)

 

Nearly half of the drives they've had this year average at least four yards per play. For reference, Oregon is ranked first in that metric at 81%.