What are the pros and cons of Auburn’s March Madness resume?

[aubiefifty 16,802]

al.com

What are the pros and cons of Auburn’s March Madness resume?

Updated: Mar. 07, 2024, 6:34 p.m.|Published: Mar. 07, 2024, 6:45 a.m.

4–5 minutes

COLUMBIA, MO - MARCH 05 - Auburn's K.D. Johnson (0) during the game between the #13 Auburn Tigers and the Missouri Tigers at Mizzou Arena in Columbia, MO on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Photo by Zach Bland/Auburn TigersZach Bland/Auburn Tigers

Selection Sunday is getting closer — just 10 days to go — and Auburn has one more game left in the regular season this Saturday against Georgia.

Auburn is 23-7 overall this season and 13-5 in the SEC. Auburn is still playing for a top-four seed in the SEC Tournament set for next week in Nashville, which will be a final chance to add to its NCAA Tournament resume.

Speaking of which, let’s break down the good and bad of what Auburn will show the Selection Committee:

Pros

Auburn doesn’t have a bad loss

This may be the biggest positive of Auburn’s resume. Auburn has seven losses with one game to play. All seven of those losses are to Quad 1 teams. The quadrants are defined as the following based on a team’s NET ranking.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240

Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Kentucky is a top-30 team and beat Auburn at home. Baylor is a top-50 team and beat Auburn on a neutral floor. Auburn’s other five losses — Appalachian State, Alabama, Mississippi State, Florida and Tennessee — all came on the road against top 75 teams.

Auburn is undefeated against Quads 2, 3 and 4 as of Wednesday’s NET rankings.

Five of Auburn’s seven losses are by single-digit margins.

The metrics love Auburn

Throughout this season, the computers have been far more favorable to Auburn than the human voters.

Auburn is No. 13 in the AP poll this week, but No. 5 in KenPom, No. 6 in the NET and No. 5 in the Torvik rankings.

Auburn is top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. It is the best effective field goal percentage defense in America, as of Wednesday. Auburn has the best assist-to-turnover ratio as well as the most bench points per game in the SEC. Both are in the top 10 nationally.

Many of those high computer rankings come because when Auburn wins, it blows out its opponents. Auburn’s average scoring margin is 15 points, the eight best mark in the country.

The only true statistical deficiency this team has is fouling, where Auburn is 310th nationally committing 19 fouls per game.

Cons

Auburn doesn’t have many good wins. Really, it only has one.

Auburn beat Alabama at home by 18 points. That’s a great win.

It’s also Auburn’s only Quad 1 win. Auburn is the only Power 5 team in the top 25 of the NET with just one Quad 1 win. Auburn, Colorado, Washington, Minnesota, NC State, Florida State, USC and Boston College are the only major conference teams in the NET top 100 with one or fewer Quad 1 win.

Auburn is likely going to be the only one from that group to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado is the only other team with a shot.

In other words, Auburn’s resume may not have much weighing it down, but it also doesn’t have many highlights. Auburn’s best win after Alabama is Mississippi State at home, based on NET and KenPom rankings.

Auburn will have a chance to pick up another one or several Quad 1 wins at the SEC Tournament next week in Nashville. It could help boost Auburn’s seed line.

The Tigers should be applauded for finishing with a winning record in SEC road games this season, but none of Auburn’s five SEC road wins came against a team in the top 75 of the KenPom rankings.

Matt Cohen covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on X at @Matt_Cohen_ or email him at mcohen@al.com

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[gravejd 3,270]

Can Auburn elevate their game to match the top level teams? Can a bunch of really good players collectively become a great team? Auburn did it in 2019 with a bunch of scrappy players. The teams are different in a lot of ways. That 2019 team was lead by its veteran guard play. While this team is lead by its veteran front court. Its stated repeatedly that teams win in March based on guard play so can the combo of Tre, Aden, Jones, and KD compete get AU to another final 4? Tall ask for our young PG but that is the challenge that is in front of them. Another key piece of that 2019 final 4 team was the emergence of Okeke as a first round NBA talent. Time at time down the stretch AU could go to Okeke when we needed a bucket. This year Auburn also has a talented player coming on strong at the end of the season. Can CBM be that difference maker down the stretch? Someone AU can go to when it desperately needs a basket. Another tall ask for a first year player who has been a journeyman so far during his college career. 

Lot of difference and similarities in that 2019 team and this one. I know AU is being overlooked right now. Everyone thinks we are a scrappy bunch with a low ceiling. I don't think many are giving us a chance to actually win the SEC tournament. And i think that plays right into Auburn's hands. Always at our best when people don't expect it. One thing i know for sure is that this AU team will compete and give their all and thats all I can really ask for as a fan. Give me a reason to believe and i'll believe. Let's finish this year off in style Auburn! 

[AUpreacherman22 3,887]

We’ve played our way in.   You never know what might happen in March.   Metrically this team is as good as any in the nation.  And I believe on any given day this team is capable of beating anyone in the country.    
But we haven’t done well against good teams yet!   The potential is there, but we’ve got to start winning the big games!  

The bama and SC games were pretty big, but against very flawed teams.  The next best game on our resume is a close loss “moral victory” at UT.   We’ll get a decent seed, but round 2 we’ll start playing some teams where we’ll have to prove it!  And live up to our potential!

[Viper 3,132]

Biggest con on the resume is our best win is at home over a team who’s lost its last 3 of 5. That’s what will keep us a 4-seed.