Latest Lines: UGA-3, LSU-2.5

[DKW 86 7,726]

Link-bodda-bink

[SouthLink02 8]

What is the deal with sports lines?

Don't home teams get 3-4 points? Or is that just in certain games.

[AUloggerhead 2,356]

What is the deal with sports lines?

Don't home teams get 3-4 points? Or is that just in certain games.

195719[/snapback]

That's the way I heard it -- home teams generally get an automatic 3 points.

This tells me that this year's AU-UGA game is considered a toss up. The unknowns at this point are the state of Shockley's knee and the disturbing historical habit of the visiting team winning this game.

The uat-LSU is interesting because it looks like the bookies don't know how this one is going to turn out either. uat should at least have 3 points for being at home. Guess they ain't as impressed with that perfect 9-0 record as the sidewalk alumi are, huh? Pick 'em.

[GalensGhost 0]

Is the injury report up to date? It lists Shockley as doubtful.

[bammanmr 0]

If shockly doesn't go, I will be AMAZED.

I saw the line this morning and came with the intention of posting a thread about it.

I find it interesting that Auburn going on the road to a top 10 team is really only a 0.5 point underdog. IMO, we match up very well with the doggies this weekend and if we don't beat ourselves, we should take this one by 7-10.

[Draven 0]

What is the deal with sports lines?

Don't home teams get 3-4 points? Or is that just in certain games.

195719[/snapback]

Slink, any news on Shockley? Will he be able to go, or is it still day by day?

[SouthLink02 8]

Shockley will play. He won't be near 100% but he will be on the field.

Did some drills last Wed but they were only drop back and throw.

From what I hear, he will be around 75% for the game.

[WarTim 3,463]

I believe, as I have stated all year, uga has the best TEAM in the SEC. IF AU finds a way to win this one, I will be even more impressed with the AU Coaching Staff. uga may not be spectacular in any particular area, but, they are solid across the board. Shockley's health status will make a huge difference.

Time will tell.....

[SouthLink02 8]

I have had the pleasure of having Shockley's injury (though mine was on the OTHER knee) after I slid into second base in my senior year of high school.

It hurts and it lingers. It isn't something that will just magically go away in two weeks, which is why I am much more skeptical of Shockley's status then other UGA fans who just assume he will be 100% ok

[freebody 0]

I thought in the AU-UGA series, the visiting team gets the 3 points for the reverse-home-field advantage?

[DKW 86 7,726]

I thought in the AU-UGA series, the visiting team gets the 3 points for the reverse-home-field advantage?

196092[/snapback]

Well, this is a really good idea in both these games the visiting team usually wins. Reverse Home Field may be what it is all about...GREAT POINT!

[AUloggerhead 2,356]

I have had the pleasure of having Shockley's injury (though mine was on the OTHER knee) after I slid into second base in my senior year of high school.

It hurts and it lingers. It isn't something that will just magically go away in two weeks, which is why I am much more skeptical of Shockley's status then other UGA fans who just assume he will be 100% ok

195876[/snapback]

Unfortunately, if an athlete can't go 100% then he has a greater chance of getting hurt worse when they start favoring an injured limb. Not having normal lateral movement could be bad news for a QB against a determined pass rush.

[quietfan 233]

I often hear people raise the "home field advantage" question when discussing betting lines. Two points:

1) Why assume that the home field advantage HASN'T already been factored into the line? That is, maybe the line is already giving the home team three points (or whatever).

2) Betting lines have more to do with bookies keeping their money and balancing off bets than objective evaluations of teams' abilities. For example, if team X happens to have a large number of wealthy fans/alumni who habitually bet a lot on them, odds makers will automatically give their opponents an extra nudge, spread-wise, just to keep the betting even on both sides.

As far as reverse-home-field with Georgia, I know we have that legend, but how accurate is it, really? The home team has won the last two years. Actually, there are three legends I'd like someone with the time to research statistically and definitively:

Does the visitor really win an uncharacteristic amount of the time in AU/UGA games?

Does the underdog really do statistically better than expected in the Iron Bowl? Do stats really support the idea that "Death Valley" in Baton Rouge is a more dangerous place to visit, as compared to other home teams/stadiums around the country?

I don't know that any of these three "accepted" truths, which many or most of us take as gospel, has ever been statistically proven. Not to sink too deeply into Skinnerian psychology, but sometimes "truths" are mere superstitions artificially implanted through random reinforcement.

[AUslug 1]

I often hear people raise the "home field advantage" question when discussing betting lines.  Two points:

1) Why assume that the home field advantage HASN'T already been factored into the line?  That is, maybe the line is already giving the home team three points (or whatever).

2) Betting lines have more to do with bookies keeping their money and balancing off bets than objective evaluations of teams' abilities.  For example, if team X happens to have a large number of wealthy fans/alumni who habitually bet a lot on them, odds makers will automatically give their opponents an extra nudge, spread-wise, just to keep the betting even on both sides.

As far as reverse-home-field with Georgia, I know we have that legend, but how accurate is it, really?  The home team has won the last two years.  Actually, there are three legends I'd like someone with the time to research statistically and definitively:

Does the visitor really win an uncharacteristic amount of the time in AU/UGA games? 

Does the underdog really do statistically better than expected in the Iron Bowl?  Do stats really support the idea that "Death Valley" in Baton Rouge is a more dangerous place to visit, as compared to other home teams/stadiums around the country? 

I don't know that any of these three "accepted" truths, which many or most of us take as gospel, has ever been statistically proven.  Not to sink too deeply into Skinnerian psychology, but sometimes "truths" are mere superstitions artificially implanted through random reinforcement.

196105[/snapback]

The road team is 29-18-2 when the games are played at Sanford/Jordan-Hare, pretty strange for such a long standing rivarly.

I've heard the one about the underdog but generally the better team wins, with some exceptions, 1984 and 2002. The perception probably comes from the fact that numerous times over the last decade the underdog has had a lead at the half, Auburn in 98 and Bama last year.

Death Valley is no more dangerous than the rest of the SEC's large venues, LSU's winning percentage is around .750 much like Auburn's and Alabama's. But there is a huge difference b/t night games and day games where LSU's day game winning pct is something like .400

[AUslug 1]

The underdog part was addressed to quietfan's question about the underdog doing better in the Iron Bowl. My bad for not labeling it properly and the fact that you have poor reading skills.

[SouthLink02 8]

The underdog part was addressed to quietfan's question about the underdog doing better in the Iron Bowl.

Wheh, I was wondering what the heck was going on....

My bad for not labeling it properly

Live and learn

[quietfan 233]

I often hear people raise the "home field advantage" question when discussing betting lines.  Two points:

1) Why assume that the home field advantage HASN'T already been factored into the line?  That is, maybe the line is already giving the home team three points (or whatever).

2) Betting lines have more to do with bookies keeping their money and balancing off bets than objective evaluations of teams' abilities.  For example, if team X happens to have a large number of wealthy fans/alumni who habitually bet a lot on them, odds makers will automatically give their opponents an extra nudge, spread-wise, just to keep the betting even on both sides.

As far as reverse-home-field with Georgia, I know we have that legend, but how accurate is it, really?  The home team has won the last two years.  Actually, there are three legends I'd like someone with the time to research statistically and definitively:

Does the visitor really win an uncharacteristic amount of the time in AU/UGA games? 

Does the underdog really do statistically better than expected in the Iron Bowl?  Do stats really support the idea that "Death Valley" in Baton Rouge is a more dangerous place to visit, as compared to other home teams/stadiums around the country? 

I don't know that any of these three "accepted" truths, which many or most of us take as gospel, has ever been statistically proven.  Not to sink too deeply into Skinnerian psychology, but sometimes "truths" are mere superstitions artificially implanted through random reinforcement.

196105[/snapback]

The road team is 29-18-2 when the games are played at Sanford/Jordan-Hare, pretty strange for such a long standing rivarly.

I've heard the one about the underdog but generally the better team wins, with some exceptions, 1984 and 2002. The perception probably comes from the fact that numerous times over the last decade the underdog has had a lead at the half, Auburn in 98 and Bama last year.

Death Valley is no more dangerous than the rest of the SEC's large venues, LSU's winning percentage is around .750 much like Auburn's and Alabama's. But there is a huge difference b/t night games and day games where LSU's day game winning pct is something like .400

196109[/snapback]

Thanks for some numbers! (And I understood your underdog comment was directed at the Iron Bowl.) I had no idea the road team's margin was SOoo big with Georgia.