CFN SEC Predictions

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SEC Game of the Week

LSU (4-1) at Florida (5-0) 3:30 PM EST CBS Saturday October 7th

Why to Watch: Now we get to see just how good these two teams really are. Florida's win at Tennessee was obviously tremendous and the home victory over Alabama wasn't without its charm, but the next three games will show if Urban Meyer's team is just a contender for the SEC title or if it's worthy of being the lead dog in the national title chase. No offense to Ohio State, but the Gators have to be ranked number one, at least based on who deserves the top spot, if they can beat LSU, win at Auburn, and then beat Georgia. LSU is still a mystery team. Oh sure, it looked great blowing the doors off UL Lafayette, Arizona, Tulane and Mississippi State, but those teams aren't going to exactly challenge for the BCS. The only road game so far, and the only game against anyone with any talent, was at Auburn in a controversial 7-3 loss. A win in Gainesville won't erase that, but it would mean LSU has to be considered in the mix again for the SEC title, and maybe more.

Why LSU Might Win: The Tiger defense is the real deal proving to be a rock against the pass thanks to an aggressive, fearsome pass rush that'll generate consistent pressure on Gator QB Chris Leak. Florida, likely without top RB DeShawn Wynn thanks to a sprained knee that knocked him out of the Alabama game, won't be running it much. Kestahn Moore and backup QB Tim Tebow might get a decent run here and there, but forget about consistently pounding the ball on the Tiger defensive front. Now, Florida might have to be a pure passing team which fits right into LSU's hands.

Why Florida Might Win: Talk about no running game, LSU's is mediocre. Oh sure, it did a great job against Arizona and wasn't bad against Tulane, and there have been 14 touchdowns on the ground so far, but against Auburn, the one, true measuring stick for LSU, there were only 42 yards. Florida's secondary might be getting it done with smoke and mirrors, but it's an opportunistic group that's only allowed three touchdowns so far with eight interceptions including two picks of Tennessee's Erik Ainge. This group will bend, but it doesn't break.

Who to Watch: Put the kids to bed; this game is for the adults. All the SEC quarterback talk this year has been about star freshmen Mitch Mustain at Arkansas, Matthew Stafford at Georgia, and Tebow, but this game will be all about veterans JaMarcus Russell of LSU and Leak. Russell has been nothing short of terrific ranking second in the nation in passing efficiency with ten touchdown passes and only one interception while completing 70% of his passes, while Leak, despite having to look over his shoulder waiting for Tebow to come in and provide a spark, has been magnificent completing 65% of his throws with 14 touchdown passes tossing at least two in every game. Considering the woes of both running games, the quarterback that plays better will win the game.

What Will Happen: If you enjoy defenses, this will be for you. Florida's issues in the secondary will finally be exposed with Russell coming up with his sharpest game of the year.

CFN Prediction: LSU 16 ... Florida 13 ... Line: Florida -1.5

Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 5

Arkansas (3-1) at Auburn (5-0) 12 PM EST Saturday October 7th

Why to Watch: If Arkansas wants to step up to the big boy table, this is the game it has to have. With two weeks off after the double-overtime missed kick fest over Alabama, the Hogs are rested and ready for their toughest test since getting whacked by USC in the season opener. The team isn't playing particularly well, but it's 2-0 in SEC play and 3-1 overall with a shot to go on a huge run if they can come up with the huge upset with SE Missouri State, Ole, Miss and UL Monroe ahead. The Tigers are generally acknowledged as having one of the three best teams in America, but they could use a big game after struggling a little too much to put away South Carolina in a 24-17 win last Thursday night. With Florida ahead next week, there can't be a slip here.

Why Arkansas Might Win: South Carolina showed last week that the Auburn defense can be penetrated with short, quick passes and a calm, cool passer. While Arkansas doesn't have that, at least not yet, it does have something Auburn hasn't seen yet: a running game. LSU and South Carolina aren't moving the ball particularly well on the ground, and Washington State is all about throwing the ball. The Hogs will try to pound away on the smallish Tiger D and hope to keep things close into the fourth quarter. QB Mitch Mustain hasn't been sharp so far, but he should get a little bit of time behind a line that's doing a decent job in pass protection against the fearsome Auburn pass rush .

Why Auburn Might Win: Mitch Mustain. The Hog quarterback is showing signs of becoming special, but he's not there yet and he's almost certain to turn it over at least twice. South Carolina was able to stay in the game against Auburn thanks to a nearly flawless game from Syvell Newton. Mustain won't be able to do the same. Arkansas is dead last in America in turnover margin losing seven interceptions and only coming up with one takeaway in four games. To beat Auburn, the Hogs have to come up with several big plays and force some big mistakes. If Auburn keeps the game plan relatively conservative and Brandon Cox is effective at keeping the chains moving, there won't be a problem.

Who to Watch: Since moving from safety to linebacker, Auburn's Will Herring has found ways to keep making plays. He came up with a key broken up pass in the end zone against the Gamecocks last week, and he has been solid against the run leading the Tigers with 27 stops. It'll be up to him to be the first line of defense against Darren McFadden and the Arkansas running game. If Herring is making tackles five yards past the line, Auburn's D might be in trouble. If he's able to sniff things out keep the long gains to a minimum, the Arkansas offense won't go anywhere. A savvy veteran, watch for him to bait Mustain into at least two bad throws.

What Will Happen: Arkansas is better than its being given credit for, but Auburn's defense will swarm all over the Hog offense. Expect a ruthlessly efficient day from Cox and the Tiger offense. By the way, Auburn PK John Vaughn has hit eight of ten field goal tries and all 17 extra points.

CFN Prediction: Auburn 34 ... Arkansas 14 ... Line: Auburn -16

Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 3.5

Vanderbilt (2-3) at Ole Miss (1-4) 12 PM EST Saturday October 7th

Why to Watch: While Kentucky and Mississippi State might have something to say about it, this might be the game to determine the SEC's worst team. This isn't the Toilet Bowl it might have been in past seasons with both teams playing relatively well considering their records, but each team desperately needs this win to keep alive any possible dreams of a bowl shot. Ole Miss has almost certain losses against Auburn and LSU ahead, and it has to go on the road to face Alabama and Arkansas over the next two weeks, so the current four-game losing slide could get brutally ugly if it's not good enough to beat Vandy at home. The Commodores still have all the big boys from the East to deal with, but with a home game against South Carolina along with dates with Duke and Kentucky still to play, getting to six wins isn't impossible if they can come away from Oxford with the victory. They're 0-2 in SEC play so far, but the losses came to Alabama and Arkansas by a combined total of five points.

Why Vanderbilt Might Win: Ole Miss can't score. The Rebels are averaging a mere 8.25 points per game with no consistent production coming from anyone on offense. Either the running game is effective, of the passing game goes into the tank, or vice versa. Vanderbilt's defense has been surprisingly effective holding Michigan to a season-low 27 points (also accomplished by Wisconsin) and has been surprisingly solid at not getting steamrolled over by everyone's running game other than the Wolverines'. Making matters worse for Ole Miss has been problems with the run defense. Vandy should be able to roll for 150 yards on the ground without a problem.

Why Ole Miss Might Win: Even in the best of times, Vandy isn't a juggernaut. Now it has to deal with several injury issues, especially on defense, where there's some shuffling going on with the loss of safety Ben Koger to a broken leg and linebackers Kevin Joyce and Marcus Bugg to injuries suffered against Temple. Freshman Patrick Benoist might end up starting at linebacker. If the Rebels can't take advantage and put up some decent yards this week, that likely means they won't be good enough to come up with much the rest of the year.

Who to Watch: It might be do or die time, at least this season, for Ole Miss QB Brent Schaeffer. He was never expected to be Peyton Manning, but he's only completing 46% of his passes with six interceptions and only four touchdown passes. The key to his game was supposed to be running the ball, but he hasn't done nearly enough to spark the offense netting just 105 yards so far. Backup Seth Adams completed eight of 11 passes for 84 yards in the 27-3 loss to Wake Forest last week, and could quickly find his way into the game if Schaeffer struggles early.

What Will Happen: The Ole Miss woes continue. The lines aren't playing well and there's simply not enough happening on offense. The Vanderbilt running game will control the clock and the overall tempo.

CFN Prediction: Vanderbilt 20 ... Ole Miss 17 ... Line: Vanderbilt -1.5

Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 2

West Virginia (4-0) at Mississippi State (1-4) 2:30 PM EST Saturday October 7th

Why to watch: West Virginia gets back to work with a rare trip into SEC country. The fourth-ranked Mountaineers are in that small handful of teams positioning for a shot at a national championship, so any letdown in Starkville, or even a close call, would be catastrophic. Hotshot RB Steve Slaton is on the short of Heisman candidates, while shifty QB Pat White will be returning home this weekend. Well, sort of. White’s from Daphne, Ala., which is about a five-hour drive down US-45. Mississippi State is no stranger to top ten teams having already been throttled by Auburn and LSU, but it has enough of a defense to make this interesting. The Bulldogs regressed last week against LSU, although the offense has shown small signs of life ever since Omarr Conner switched back to quarterback from wide receiver.

Why West Virginia might win: Save for one half of garbage time against Maryland, the West Virginia defense was solid throughout the month of September. The ‘eers are creating turnovers and allowing an average of only 11 points a game, an insurmountable combination for a Mississippi State offense that generates just 235 yards a game and is leaning on a couple of freshman to shoulder the load on the ground.

Why Mississippi State might win: The Bulldogs are brutal against the pass, but are only giving up 104 yards a game on the ground. That’s actually a formula that can work against a West Virginia offense that leans heavily on the run, yet is 93rd nationally throwing the ball. East Carolina showed two weeks ago that when you stack the box, Slaton can be contained and White will make mistakes.

Who to watch: Uhhh, isn’t it about time West Virginia bags its first quarterback sack of 2006? It’s hard to believe, but the Mountaineers are the only one of 119 I-A teams technically without a sack (although, there appeared to be one in the season opener, but you get the idea). Before Big East play begins, they’ve got to start getting more pressure on the quarterback, meaning it’s time for Keilen Dykes to begin asserting himself like he did during his breakout sophomore season.

What will happen: Playing on the road and for the first time in two weeks, West Virginia will start slowly, but Mississippi State won’t have the weapons on offense to capitalize. White will throw his fourth and fifth touchdown passes of the year, one each to Brandon Myles and Darius Reynaud.

CFN Prediction: West Virginia 38 ... Mississippi State 16 ... Line: West Virginia

Duke (0-4) at Alabama (3-2) 7:00 PM EST GamePlan Saturday October 7th

Why to Watch: Duke travels to Tuscaloosa to begin one of the most brutal three game stretches in recent memory. Florida State and Miami are next on the schedule, but, suffice to say, the Blue Devils won’t be peeking ahead to their ACC foes, especially after last week’s 37-0 loss to Virginia. Alabama is reeling as well, trying to recover from two road losses in a row – Arkansas in overtime and Florida last week. With the Tide needing a win in the worst way, the visit from the Blue Devils couldn’t come at a better time.

Why Duke Might Win: The Alabama defense isn’t the dominant unit that it was last year. Typically ranked in the top ten in most major defensive categories, the Tide is ranked 29th in the nation in total defense, giving up 280 yards and 17 points per game. Against that Tide defense, Duke true freshman QB Thaddeus Lewis will try to establish the controlled passing game to keep the Tide offense off the field.

Why Alabama Might Win: Although Bama QB John Parker Wilson threw three interceptions against Florida, his production has given this offense a much needed balance. With Wilson at the helm, Alabama is averaging 234 yards per game through the air, while Duke is the 74th ranked pass defense in the nation. For as good as Wilson has thrown the football, RB Ken Darby is the key. He found his 2005 form and ran like a man possessed at Florida. Behind Wilson and Darby, the Bama offense will completely frustrate an improved Duke defense.

Who to Watch: Alabama WR DJ Hall and Keith Brown have caught 47 passes this season and are becoming one of the better WR duos in the SEC. Both Hall and Brown have been banged up in recent weeks, but it hasn’t shown in their play on the field. Facing Duke’s All ACC CB John Talley will be a great test for these two, but one of them will avoid Talley altogether. Expect Wilson to pick on Talley’s opposite number, attacking CB Deonto McCormick throughout the game.

What Will Happen: The Blue Devils had five sacks against Virginia, but they won’t get near Wilson in this matchup. The sophomore will throw for 275 yards and three TDs, while Darby will get 100+ yards on the ground against the weary Blue Devil defense.

CFN Prediction: Alabama 45 ... Duke 13 ... Line: Alabama -28.5

Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 2

South Carolina (3-2) at Kentucky (3-2) 7 PM EST ESPN2 Saturday October 7th

Why to Watch: South Carolina gained more respect in a 24-17 nationally televised defeat to Auburn than it did in its three wins (Miss State, Wofford, Florida Atlantic) combined, and now it has to go on a little bit of a run with the supposedly easy part of the schedule up with Kentucky this week and Vanderbilt next week with home dates with Arkansas and Middle Tennessee still out there. Kentucky has been better than expected with a solid offense with a bit of big play capability. There are enough potential wins ahead (Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and UL Monroe) to reasonably hope for a bowl bid, but a home victory over South Carolina would surely help the cause.

Why South Carolina Might Win: Kentucky's defense isn't just bad, it's next level bad with things getting a bit worse this week with DT Ricky Abren likely out with a wrist problem and injuries to key reserve ends Corey Peters and Jamil Paris leaving the line extremely thin. Against the nation's second worst defense (just ahead of Ball State), the suddenly balanced USC offense should be able to move the ball as well as it has all season.

Why Kentucky Might Win: Despite the defensive issues, UK is generating good pressure from several areas and forces a ton of mistakes with 14 takeaways so far. While the Wildcats haven't run well so far, Rafael Little should be back from a lingering knee problem to provide some pop against a consistently bad run defense. UK can air it out a bit, so any production from Little and the ground game should mean big all-around numbers.

Who to Watch: It'll be the nation's leading punting team vs. the nation's sixth best punt return team. Ryan Succop has been blasting the ball for the Gamecocks averaging 45.8 yards per bomb, while the return of Little should help the Wildcats boost their 18.44-yard-per return average. Of course, all eyes will be on the quarterbacks with UK's Andre Woodson coming into his own with 14 touchdown passes, including four against Central Michigan last week, and only two interceptions battling the hot Syvelle Newton, who has seven scoring passes in his last two games and did a fantastic job of moving the ball on the nasty Auburn defense.

What Will Happen: Watch out for the possible upset. Rich Brooks will never outcoach Steve Spurrier, but he does have the weapons to put up points against a USC defense that might be on letdown alert after the Auburn game. The Gamecocks will get a few big plays from Sidney Rice against the porous UK secondary, but not enough of them.

CFN Prediction: Kentucky 24 ... South Carolina 22 ... Line: South Carolina -7

Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 2.5

Tennessee (4-1) at Georgia (5-0) 7:45 PM EST ESPN Saturday October 7th

Why to Watch: It's statement time in the SEC. Georgia can justify its high ranking after two lousy outings against Colorado and Ole Miss, while Tennessee can stay alive in the SEC title race, after the loss to Florida in the conference opener, with a big road win. Outside of the 21-20 loss to the Gators, the Vols have been incredible with a frightening blend of explosion and consistency on offense, while the defense has improved since almost gagging against Air Force. Georgia has been less than stellar as it tries to find something on offense that works. The defense leads the nation in points allowed and is playing at a national title level, but the O has been awful. With Vanderbilt and Mississippi State ahead before the Cocktail-Not-A-Cocktail Party against the Gators, the Dawgs will likely be 8-0 with a win.

Why Tennessee Might Win: Forgetting Georgia's issues at quarterback, the running game has been just as much of a concern. Kregg Lumpkin has run well as the starter, but he's not getting the ball enough to be the type of workhorse the Vols will have to worry about for 28 carries. The receiving corps has been flat-out awful. That's partly due to the quarterback play, but the corps isn't doing anything to help make the situation better. If Tennessee can get up early, Georgia doesn't have the firepower to come back. On the other side of the ball, Georgia's defense might statistically be fantastic, but it hasn't faced an offense with a pulse.

Why Georgia Might Win: The D really is playing well. The Vol running attack was able to rumble on Cal and Memphis, but was stoned for -11 yards by Florida. Yeah, Georgia hasn't dealt with a real passing game yet, but it faced several good runners and is still only allowing 100 yards per game on the ground. The pass rush should bother Erik Ainge and force him to hurry his throws, and he will give up at least one interception. Last week against Memphis was his first game without throwing a pick after pitching at least one in each of the first four games including two against the Gators.

Who to Watch: Who ever thought Joe Tereshinski might be the savior of the Georgia offense? It's not quite fair to dog Matthew Stafford and Joe Cox since the receivers aren't providing any help, but neither quarterback option has produced since Tereshinski went down with an ankle injury against South Carolina in the second game of the season. Now the senior quarterback is expected to start with Stafford and Cox playing a role off the bench if needed. Tereshinski isn't going to throw for 300 yards, but he's likely to manage the game better than the freshmen have.

What Will Happen: Tennessee will show that it deserves to be considered among the ten best teams in the country. It'll be a defensive struggle early, but the Vol offense will connect on two big plays to break the game open. Sort of. Don't expect a high scoring affair.

CFN Prediction: Tennessee 19 ... Georgia 16 ... Line: Tennessee -2.5

Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 4.5