Bammers aren't going to like

[AUman43 5]

Finescum predicts they will have a 7-5 record under king Sabin the first year. He predicts losses to LSWHO, Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia and Florida State.

Linky:

http://www.al.com/sports/press-register/pf....xml&coll=3

Tide staring at 7-5 mark under Saban

Saturday, April 21, 2007

There is probably more buzz about Nick Saban's first spring game than the previous four combined. Or 24 for that matter. But whether the large throng gathered today at Bryant-Denny Stadium will see anything significant remains to be seen. Still, the upcoming season will be one of the most eagerly anticipated in modern history.

So how will Saban do out of the chute?

His first year at Michigan State was modestly successful, going 6-5-1 (breaking a three-season losing streak). At LSU, he did slightly better, going 8-4 (also ending a two-year losing slide). So what will happen here? Are fans expecting a miracle or just something better than last year's 6-7 record?

The following is an early read on the 2007 season:

Sept. 1: Western Carolina -- It's a safe bet Saban won't be burning too much midnight oil worrying about this team. In its last game of the 2006 season, Western lost to Florida 62-0. In fact, in Western's last four games in 2006 (losses to Wofford, Liberty, Appalachian State and Florida), they were outscored 149-16. ... Alabama 51-3.

Sept. 8: at Vanderbilt -- The Commodores will struggle to replicate some of their recent success but the game could still be interesting. ... Alabama 21-16.

Sept. 15: Arkansas -- All eyes will be on Houston Nutt before the game to see if he has his cell phone in hand texting various news anchors in the area. Seriously, this will be a major test for Alabama against an experienced team with the nation's best running back. ... Alabama 24-23.

Sept. 22: Georgia -- The Bulldogs took a major step backward last year and this will be an intriguing battle. Can Alabama take the success of the previous two weeks and pull off another important home win? ... Georgia 20-16.

Sept. 29: Florida State (at Jacksonville, Fla.) -- Although Bobby Bowden is coming off a disastrous year, by FSU standards, this epic clash of two traditional southern powers will be Saban's second loss. Going up against Jimbo Fisher with a questionable defense might be too much. ... Florida State 30-21.

Oct. 6: Houston -- Coming off a 10-4 season, the Cougars are no longer your typical homecoming opponent. Depending on the shape of Alabama after a brutal three-week stretch, this game could be in doubt later than Alabama fans want. ... Alabama 23-14.

Oct. 13: at Ole Miss -- If there were ever a team due a break against Alabama, it would be Ole Miss. The last two games have been decided by a game-winning Alabama kick in regulation and a Tide win in overtime. ... Alabama 13-10.

Oct. 20: Tennessee -- Another game that should begin to tell which direction Alabama is headed under Saban. Tennessee's future remains a question mark under Phil Fulmer. Still ... Tennessee 24-17.

Nov. 3: LSU -- Do you think there'll be any hype for this game? Has Game Day already made hotel reservations? Will LSU fans be at Mach 3 on the obnoxious meter? Scratch that: Aren't they always? Try all of the above. ... LSU 23-16.

Nov. 10: at Mississippi State -- Who would have ever thought the following statement could made: Alabama will be trying to avoid its second straight loss to Mississippi State. Last year's debacle was the end of Mike Shula. Sly Croom will have to cherish that moment because this year will be a different story. ... Alabama 21-10.

Nov. 24: at Auburn -- This will be Alabama's best chance of an upset in many years. It's impossible to guess the physical condition of either team this far out. However, this game should signal the dawning of a new era in this rivalry, although the result may be hauntingly familiar. ... Auburn 19-17.

Alabama will look like a much better team under Saban in terms of execution and conditioning. However, a transition usually takes a toll and while a championship could be in Alabama's future under Saban, it doesn't look like it will happen in the short-term. A record of 7-5 is forecast. If the ball bounces right, Alabama could perhaps improve upon this regular-season record by a game or two.

[BAMMERPERRY 0]

Since you love Finebaum, here's some more:

Rivals are fearful of Saban

Did Alabama hire the wrong head coach? Could Nick Saban be a colossal mistake -- a complete bust?

It seems that way if you read the e-mail and listen to my voice mail messages from our neighbors in Louisiana. Ever since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, the LSU nation has more closely resembled the pooches and pups at the Westminster Dog Show, trotting around in circles, slipping and sliding, chirping and yelping and going nowhere fast.

So I started dusting off old books and hunting around through dusty stories, trying to make sure Alabama hired the right man, after all. Perhaps they really should have gotten Les Miles himself, considering he is 22-4 over two years and closely resembles Mike DuBose three months into the South Beach Diet.

Of course, I discovered that slug of a coach he replaced, Nick Saban, was also 22-4, in the previous two years, and picked up a little hardware in the process, such as an SEC title and national championship.

But enough about Miles.

I thought we should go to his boss, LSU Athletics Director Skip Bertman, to be the ultimate authority on Saban.

"Nick Saban is the best football coach and possibly the best coach in any sport that I've seen in 42 years," said Bertman in an interview several years ago with the New York Times. "I know coaching. I know sports. I knew Nick was going to be successful."

Bertman knows a little about coaching. He won five national titles as LSU's baseball coach.

It is easier to knock Saban now because of his two lackluster years at Miami. But suppose he had stayed at LSU. Does anyone think -- with the talent on board, most of it being Saban's -- he would have done any worse than Miles?

I didn't think so.

So if you accept that he would have been only equal to Miles -- not better -- then LSU's record the last four years would have read 44-8 and the year by year mark would have read, 13-1, 9-3 (the third loss came after Saban announced he was leaving for the Dolphins), 11-2 and 11-2.

Of course, had that occurred, the line of NFL suitors would have grown dramatically, even exceeding the seven offers Saban had in his first 10 years as a college head coach.

Clearly, Saban heading to the NFL was a blunder but it was obviously an itch he had to scratch. However, in reading about him in these old files, it's evident that college coaching was always in his blood.

"For a long time I thought the right career path for me would be: assistant in college, head coach in college, assistant in the pros and then head coach in the pros," Saban said in an interview with Peter King of Sports Illustrated. "But there I am at LSU, a successful college coach, winning a national championship, and I think: Maybe this is where I ought to be. Maybe I should make my legacy as a college coach, maybe trying to win as many games as Bear Bryant -- which probably would never happen, but that's what I was thinking."

Finally, for those who think some of us in Alabama have simply jumped on the Saban bandwagon now that he's in Tuscaloosa, forgetting objectivity in the process, I ranked Saban No. 1 in my bi-annual list of the SEC's best coaches four consecutive times. The following appeared on June 18, 2005 shortly after Saban left LSU and before he coached his first game at Miami. I wrote an article ranking the best coaches in the SEC since Paul Bryant in 1982. Saban landed at No. 6 on that list right behind Gene Stallings and Pat Dye.

"He only spent five years in the SEC but clearly is one of the best who has ever coached in the league. Turning around a mess, Saban won the SEC championship in his second year and a national title in fourth season. If Saban had stayed in Baton Rouge, some think he could have rivaled Spurrier's mark at Florida."

All that is different now is two years and a change of address. Oh, and something else. Saban is now at Alabama, a school that has one of the best facilities in the country and among the richest names and traditions in college football history.

Bottom line: If he could become the top coach in college football at LSU, a school that had fallen off the radar screen, he can do it at Alabama.

That's why Alabama fans are so optimistic and confident with Saban on board. It's also why LSU fans -- and those of other schools -- are so green with envy. They know what Saban is capable of doing. They've seen it first-hand. Now they are fearful he'll do it all over again at Alabama, and if history is any indicator, they have good reason for their fear.

-- Contact Paul Finebaum at:

finebaumnet@yahoo.com

[rolltoomer 0]

"Will LSU fans be at Mach 3 on the obnoxious meter? Scratch that: Aren't they always?"

Most accurate thing he's written in a long time.

[DKW 86 7,425]

Buttplug, you and Finebaum need to lay off the crack. I cant tell you that I know of a single fan, and I have almost 3000 members on this board, that feels anything like the delusion you turd fans claim.

[AuburnGrad02' 0]

What exactly does this mean? I'm really trying to figure this statement out.

"However, this game should signal the dawning of a new era in this rivalry"

[PChamp119 96]

He probably means that it will start to be competitive. This is Bama's last chance to save their name. If they can't win with Saban, they may not win for quite a while.

[AuburnGrad02' 0]

That is true, if they don't win in the next 2-3 years, with the talent AU is gathering year in and year out, it might a while. I honestly think Saban will be gone by '09.

[runswithscissors 33]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

[DKW 86 7,425]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

[runswithscissors 33]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

[creed 1,637]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

...when did the expection's of bama fans change?

[runswithscissors 33]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

...when did the expection's of bama fans change?

i would say when au fans stopped telling us what our expectations were, but we all know that won't stop.

[WarTiger 3,902]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

we don't have to put words in your mouths...you run your mouths quite well on your own.

[DKW 86 7,425]

Scarborough is a grad/alum however you want to say it. He is not just a random journalist.

[creed 1,637]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

...when did the expection's of bama fans change?

i would say when au fans stopped telling us what our expectations were, but we all know that won't stop.

[creed 1,637]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

...when did the expection's of bama fans change?

i would say when au fans stopped telling us what our expectations were, but we all know that won't stop.

...maybe you should start listening.

[AUdaREALsecTigers 2]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

Dude, 92,000 at a practice game is pretty telling. How many attended last year?

[WinCrimson 61]

7-5 is certainly a good possibility. I, personally, think we'll win 8. But 7 is certainly not out of the question.

UGA, FSU, UT, LSU, and AU are all solid programs. We've got our work cut out for us.

[ECEstudentUA 9]

actually, for once, i think PF might be right. i don't really expect anything better than 7 wins, 8 at the most the first 2 years.

RWS, according to Scarborough then, CNS would have to "win 3 BCS Titles in the first five years" they would have to come in succession in 09, 10, and 11.

i know this is a hard concept for you guys to understand, but just because a journalist says the fanbase has a certain expectation, doesn't mean its true. i know, i know....breathe in..breathe out. its ok. i know thats hard for yall to take seeing how much you like to put words in our mouths.

...when did the expection's of bama fans change?

i would say when au fans stopped telling us what our expectations were, but we all know that won't stop.

I think all the Auburn fans need to get together and tell us how to act. They all seem to think we think we are going to win the NC this year. I love it when people put words in my mouth. If anyone is delusional, its Auburn. I'm surprised they have not said it was a conspiracy that 90+ attended the A-day game.

[Ky2AU 0]

Im not trying to be a jerk, but if you dislike Auburn fans and think that we are all delusional...why subject yourself to the torture? I have plenty of Bama friends, we joke back and forth, but I wouldn't spend time with them if I thought they were delusional.

[ECEstudentUA 9]

Im not trying to be a jerk, but if you dislike Auburn fans and think that we are all delusional...why subject yourself to the torture? I have plenty of Bama friends, we joke back and forth, but I wouldn't spend time with them if I thought they were delusional.

Its a joke, i know your not a jerk.

[Ky2AU 0]

Sorry, Im not too up on message board stuff, I may not pay enough attention.

[SouthLink02 8]

7-5 is certainly a good possibility. I, personally, think we'll win 8. But 7 is certainly not out of the question.

UGA, FSU, UT, LSU, and AU are all solid programs. We've got our work cut out for us.

Let me start off by saying that what I am about to say doesn't really reflect on YOU but generally what I see on the Internet to Bama fans.

When I go to Bama boards I get the sense that they say they won't mind a 7-8-9 win season but in reality....will be quite mad unless they win 10+ games. It's always very easy to say that your team will lose 2-3-4 games....but when you ACTUALLY lose the games...people go nuts...today's college football society is all about PERFECTION and PERFECTION ONLY. When a team loses 1-2 games...it may not be considered a success if those 1-2 losses are to rivals...hell, even if they aren't rivals.

Hell, look at this site after the UGA game last year...Auburn had 2 losses after our game yet you would have thought according to some posters that the season was a wasted year and Tubs should re-do his staff. Not everyone but a LOT of people just lost it because it was an SEC loss.

Now, I am NOT mocking AU....you should have seen UGA's board after the UT, Vandy, UK games....that is classic stuff I will keep to myself.

Point being....I think Bama fans SAY they won't mind a 7-8 win year but in reality will be enraged if they do actually win 7-8 games.

I mean...win/bg/and other Bama fans...do you really go into a single game next year THINKING you will not win? Of course not...Bama COULD win all their games...they won't but they COULD win any of them. Thus, the losses will hurt as much as always and I think a 7-8 win season gives Saban a LOT of heat.

[WinCrimson 61]

Nah, I know exactly what you mean and I agree.I think a lot of the time, fans blow up because of the way a team lost, not the sole fact that they lost. Take '06 Arkansas for example. Many people were pissed to no end because of the complete meltdown on special teams. Did we see a road game in Fayetteville as a sure win? No way. Did we think it was going to be a close game that either team could win? Yep. And, even though we lost by 1 in OT, our fans were more than irate.

I also agree about the pre-game hopes. Like I've said in prior posts, it's natural for people to get their hopes up and pray for the best. I think we are capable of winning every game on the schedule next year. Will we? More than likely not. I'm sure they're thinking the same thing at AU, LSU, UF, UGA, UT, etc.

Will Saban take heat in the case that he wins 7 or 8? Sure. They'll be some wannabe tough guy call in to Finebaum and call for Saban's head on a platter. That's part of it. I was at the UGA/Boston College Music City Bowl back in 2001... I remember hearing some Dawg fans curse Richt during the game and on the way out. While there had been a big win over UT in Knoxville earlier that year, it had only been an 8 win season that had included yet another loss to UF. We could be in the same situation. Saban and Bama could knock off a FSU or UGA, but only have 8 at the end of the year plus an Iron Bowl loss. It's a possibility, sure. I just hope that we can be patient with this guy and understand that the cupboard is pretty bare in Tuscaloosa these days. The whole "Shula lost with tons of talent!" falsehood may wind up biting us. I think we'll be patient with a coach of Saban's caliber, though. Or, at least I hope we will be...

[ECEstudentUA 9]

7-5 is certainly a good possibility. I, personally, think we'll win 8. But 7 is certainly not out of the question.

UGA, FSU, UT, LSU, and AU are all solid programs. We've got our work cut out for us.

Let me start off by saying that what I am about to say doesn't really reflect on YOU but generally what I see on the Internet to Bama fans.

When I go to Bama boards I get the sense that they say they won't mind a 7-8-9 win season but in reality....will be quite mad unless they win 10+ games. It's always very easy to say that your team will lose 2-3-4 games....but when you ACTUALLY lose the games...people go nuts...today's college football society is all about PERFECTION and PERFECTION ONLY. When a team loses 1-2 games...it may not be considered a success if those 1-2 losses are to rivals...hell, even if they aren't rivals.

Hell, look at this site after the UGA game last year...Auburn had 2 losses after our game yet you would have thought according to some posters that the season was a wasted year and Tubs should re-do his staff. Not everyone but a LOT of people just lost it because it was an SEC loss.

Now, I am NOT mocking AU....you should have seen UGA's board after the UT, Vandy, UK games....that is classic stuff I will keep to myself.

Point being....I think Bama fans SAY they won't mind a 7-8 win year but in reality will be enraged if they do actually win 7-8 games.

I mean...win/bg/and other Bama fans...do you really go into a single game next year THINKING you will not win? Of course not...Bama COULD win all their games...they won't but they COULD win any of them. Thus, the losses will hurt as much as always and I think a 7-8 win season gives Saban a LOT of heat.

There is not a game that I go into thinking we cant win. Whats the point of playing. I agree, Bama could slip up with 10 wins....but more than likely we will be at 7 or 8....and yes, we will be upset.....there is nothing wrong with striving for more. Falling short of a goal only makes a team more determined. In two or three years I hope we are having this same convo and we are saying Bama could win 12, but more than likely 10 (I wonder how long it will take before the last line of my post gets chopped up and twisted to say i'm delusional and that I think Bama will win 800 this year).