The Facts and the Numbers (2008 recruiting)

[Birmingham 0]

PART 1 (2007)

First of all, remember that all offers listed aren't all the offers a kid has. That being said, he usually lists his best offers. Therefore, just because Julio Jones only ended up with listed offers from Oklahoma, Florida, Florida State, and Texas Tech, you can safely assume that is because he turned down a litany of others. On the other hand, Drew Cole probably would have admitted that he had something more than a Mississippi State offer, if he had it.

Who did we battle most often in recruiting last year? We had 32 recruits, and we beat most often: Tennessee (16 of 32), Auburn (15 of 32), and Clemson (12 of 32).

The following AU recruits were listed as AU as their only BCS school offer: Raven Grey (resign), Jermaine Johnson (resign, didn't qualify), D'Antoine Hood, Vance Smith, Chris Todd, Ken Adams, Brandon Smith, Dex Dallenbach (the long snapper), Derrick Lykes, and Da'Shaun Barnes. Two others, Barrett Trotter and Spencer Pybus, listed Duke as their only other BCS conference offers...so count them where you will. Giving Duke credit as a BCS school, that means 10 of 32, or just over 31%, of Auburn's class listed AU as their only BCS school offer. Even if you count out the re-signs, exactly 25% of Auburn's class claimed AU as their only offer from a school in a BCS conference.

How about Alabama? Kerry Murphy and Jermaine Preyear listed Alabama as their only offer. Murphy, of course, was a resign. If we count him, 94% of our class had another BCS offer. Don't count him, and you can knock that up to 97%.

I don't know if I can do justice to the raw offer numbers. You'd have to see the spreadsheet for yourself to see exactly how bad this looks for AU compared to our class. The #1 thing that stands out is this: we didn't offer a single one of their commitments. Meanwhile, as earlier stated, they offered almost half our class.

But...on to the numbers.

First, the only one that looks mildly OK for AU:

TOTAL BCS SCHOOLS OFFERING AU RECRUITS: 32

TOTAL BCS SCHOOLS OFFERING UA RECRUITS: 40

Now...the one that looks reaaaaal bad for AU:

TOTAL BCS OFFERS FOR AU RECRUITS: 66 (2.28 per recruit)

TOTAL BCS OFFERS FOR UA RECRUITS: 147 (4.6 per recruit)

Over double. Ouch.

Who was Auburn's top competition? Tops was South Carolina. They beat the Gamecocks for 6 recruits. Next, we have a tie...they beat each of the following schools 4 times: Clemson, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Florida.

Truth. It hurts.

PART TWO (2008)

A couple of assumptions before we begin:

1) Stars matter.

2) Offers matter.

And a couple of truths...

1) Alabama currently has 12 commits

2) Auburn has 20.

Now, here we go...

Number of BCS schools that have offered Alabama Commits: 27

Number of BCS schools that have offered Auburn Commits: 18

TOTAL BCS School Offers for AU's 20 Recruits: 35

TOTAL BCS School Offers for UA's 11 Recruits: 72

Number of AU recruits offered by Alabama: 2 of 20

Number of UA recruits offered by Auburn: 9 of 12

Number of AU recruits that have Auburn as their only BCS school offer: 8 - Jonathan Evans, Jamie Collins, LaDarius Perkins, Nick Fairley (resign, still a good player), Eltoro Freeman (same as Fairley), Wilfred Journet (another re-sign...was a low 3 star coming out of HS, Scout has him as 4...right), Aaron Moore (no other offers, BCS school or otherwise), Travante Stallworth

Number of UA Recruits that have Alabama as their only BCS offer: 0.

Percentage of Auburn's BCS school offers that comes soley from Mississippi State: over 22%

Percentage of Alabama's BCS school offers from schools that have won the national championship in the last 10 years: 33% (22 of 66)

Percentage of Auburn's BCS school offers from schools that have won the national championship in the last 10 years: 11% (4 of 35)

[SouthLink02 8]

Right but how do we know who "wins" when we haven't seen the players produce on the field?

Shouldn't these be done in 3-4 years?

[Birmingham 0]

Winning is what all teams involved are after. With that being said the title of this thread is correctly labeled "the facts and the numbers (2008 RECRUITING)... This is a thread about Recruiting, and even though I think the information given will lead directly to wins the subject of the thread remains the same.

[Defense(clap clap) 4]

Right but how do we know who "wins" when we haven't seen the players produce on the field?

Shouldn't these be done in 3-4 years?

Or at least wait until the 'cruitin classes are signed. It's not even August.

[buzzurd24 11]

Part one: 17-7

Part two: 28-23

Part three: 21-13

Part four: 28-18

Part five: 22-15

Part six 17-10

The funny thing is most "bammers" have to keep talking to tell themselves that they have caught up to us. How about some quiet confidence? BG is the only one (on this board) I see it in. I have always said that UA's 2008 class was incredibly incredibly strong, but I think AU's 2007 & 2006 are up there with it. So, I think they are still behind on the curve some.

[Hoopie 6]

OK...Bama had the #1 class according to rankings/offers.......and claimed another fake trophy.....so what.....old news. You have a good class so far this year, great......so what.......If they aren't trained or are in jail, they won't do any good on the field and that's the current trend at the Capstone. What's happened on the field?

Bama's classes .....pre-$aban, weren't ranked much below the AU classes.....again..so what. What happened on the field?

West Virginia averages a #30 recruiting class over the past 5 years......so what. What happened on the field?

Va Tech averages about a #20 recruiting class each year.....so what......what happens on the field?

It is about finding talent that works for your school and system and producing on the field.

That normally takes 2-3 years to start knowing results.

[SouthLink02 8]

This is a thread about Recruiting, and even though I think the information given will lead directly to wins the subject of the thread remains the same.

I have said numerous times on here that I think Recruiting Rankings are wrong often but I also do not think it is coincidence that teams finishing in the Top 10 of Rivals/Scout are more common to the AP Top 10 final poll

With that said, I think BG and a few Alabama fans make good points that Bama is doing a good job of recruiting, much better than in the past

But I read your thread and get this feeling that you are acting like Bama has won something when in reality nothing is won until things are produced on the field

[TitanTiger 20,708]

More numbers:

From 2003-2006, Alabama signed two 5-star and twenty four 4-star guys, plus numerous 3-star ones in their signing classes according to Rivals.

During that same time span, La-Monroe signed no one over 2-stars and had a few guys with zero stars.

Those classes battled it out on your grass last season.

La-Monroe 21

UAT 14

When you have something to actually talk smack about, come back. Until then, you're just an idiot bringing a knife to a gun fight.

[WarTiger 3,987]

More numbers:

From 2003-2006, Alabama signed two 5-star and twenty four 4-star guys, plus numerous 3-star ones in their signing classes according to Rivals.

During that same time span, La-Monroe signed no one over 2-stars and had a few guys with zero stars.

Those classes battled it out on your grass last season.

La-Monroe 21

UAT 14

When you have something to actually talk smack about, come back. Until then, you're just an idiot bringing a knife to a gun fight.

yeah, have a look here...

http://www.aunation.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49046

the fact that uat fans here (well at least one) are clinging to paper potential is further evidence of how far the uat program has fallen and continues to fall. wonder who's gonna be coaching this "no longer #1" recruiting class when these kids are juniors?

[Friedchickenman 0]

Let me show you my facts and numbers, I posted this in some other thread a while back on another board, and it just illustrates what me and other Auburn fans here know.

I think Tuberville and his staff have proven that when they offer someone they're going to produce no matter star they have from recruiting websites. Saban has always relied on a top 1-3 recruiting class to get the results he has needed. The difference is Tuberville isn't going to have 10 arrests on his team in 2 years. He's not going to have to sit a guy out for the half against ULM only to bring him in to win, disregarding discipline in favor of winning at all costs.

Saban was 2-3 against Tuberville at LSU with top 1-3 recruiting classes, you better hope he continues to bring them in, because unlike Tuberville he relies on the talent that comes in, because its definately not his coaching ability that has won him games.

Let me show you a few guys on Auburn's team now and in the past that were 2-3 star guys, and you tell me if they turned out to be "any good".

I'll start with 2004.

1. Jason Bosley- 2 star (starting center last year and this year)

2. Chris Evans- 2 star (leading tackler last year)

3. Brad Lester- 3 star (Co. No. 1 RB)

4. David Irons- 3 star (was one of our better corners in recent years)

5. Tristan Davis-3 star (starting kick returner)

6. Tyronne Green-2 star (converted DT to OG, Tuberville calls him one of the best guards he's ever coached, thats saying something.)

There's only three 4 stars from this class. Only one of which, Pat Sims turned out to have an impact. No five stars.

Now, lets work with 2005.

1. Senderrick Marks- 2 star (Viewed as best defensive player on Auburn's team this year).

2. Robert Dunn- Unrated (starting slot receiver)

3. Jerraud Powers- 3 star (Starting CB, one of the better ones in the SEC)

4. Jonathan Wilhite-3 star (Starting CB last year)

5. Aairon Savage- 3 star (Starting Safety)

6. Antonio Coleman- 3 star (Starting DE, had most sacks on team last year)

7. Walter McFadden-3 star (Probable starting CB this year)

There are a good bit more four and one five star in this class. Trey Blackmon being the five star. The four stars being Montez Billings, Mike Harness, Alonzo Horton, Gabe McKenzie, Prechae Rodriguez, Rex Sharpe, and Tommy Trott. Yet I don't think that you can argue that those five guys have had more of an impact of the top 5 guys from the players I just listed as 2 and 3 stars (Marks, Coleman, Wilhite, Powers, and Dunn).

So far it's been proven that the 2-3 star guys, have produced well and often, lets continue with 2006. This year was a banner recruiting year in terms of high star talent, with only 8 two and 3 star players in the class, the rest being four and five stars.

1. Ryan Shoemaker- 2 Star, led the SEC in Net Punting last year.

2. Byron Isom- 3 star, probable starter on the Offensive Line this year.

3. Zack Etheridge-3 star, has played often as a nickel back.

4. Bo Harris- 3 star, filled in as a linebacker last year at times.

The rest of the guys have been hit and miss. Four star talent Tate, Fannin, Ricks, Stevens, Hawthorne, and Goggans should all see the field a lot this year.

Not much of the 2007 talent played last year, but Wes Byrum (3 star) had a great deal of impact on several games. Antoine Carter (3 star) is expected to also to continue to develop as a pass rushing specialist. The three freshmen linemen (Ramsey, Pugh, Ziemba) were all four stars, and Kodi Burns was also in this class (four stars).

Auburn has 13 guys that will start this year that were ranked either 2 or 3 stars according to Rivals (or unranked in Dunn's case), and this is to be honest, no different from any other year. This is also why pretty much every Auburn fan and Tuberville laughs at the notion of stars affecting a team's success, simply because it hasn't with our team.

-end post-

Now, what I will say is that obviously this talent is going to make your team better. Tuberville has never won the recruiting rankings here in the SEC, he's much more along the lines of a coach that finds the hard-nosed determined 3 star player and puts him through one of the best training programs in the country to make them into great athletes. You only have to look at the NFL to see that they've started to realize just how well Auburn players turnout (Auburn players have the 3rd highest success rating in the NFL in the Tuberville years).

The thing that fans keep missing in Auburn's classes is just pure speed. We actually had faster recruits than Alabama did last year, and still do this year, by a wide margin. We've also turned to a speed orientated offense and I can only think it will improve.

Along with this, this is a compilation of the recruiting rankings from 2004-2008, Alabama fans have always said that Auburn has dominated them in this area, it simply is not the case.

Rank School 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Average

1 USC 4.05 3.95 3.96 4.22 3.89 20.07 4.014

2 Florida 3.52 3.39 3.89 3.89 3.82 18.51 3.702

3 LSU 3.54 3.69 3.64 3.88 3.58 18.33 3.666

4 Oklahoma 3.72 3.63 3.54 3.38 3.81 18.08 3.616

5 Texas 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.79 3.55 18.04 3.608

6 Georgia 3.57 3.58 3.64 3.48 3.67 17.94 3.588

7 Ohio State 3.24 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.79 17.93 3.586

8 Michigan 3.59 3.48 3.63 3.4 3.67 17.77 3.554

9 Florida State 3.59 3.82 3.68 3.2 3.33 17.62 3.524

10 Miami-FL 3.36 3.82 3.36 3.21 3.33 17.08 3.416

11 Notre Dame 2.83 3 3.46 3.72 3.96 16.97 3.394

12 Tennessee 3.25 3.63 3.09 3.63 3.06 16.66 3.332

13 Alabama 2.89 3.03 3.61 3.28 3.72 16.53 3.306

14 Penn State 3 3.05 3.63 3.14 3 15.82 3.164

15 Auburn 2.67 3.19 3.52 3.37 3.03 15.78 3.156

16 California 3 3.38 3.3 3 3.05 15.73 3.146

17 Nebraska 2.83 3.33 3.27 3.33 2.96 15.72 3.144

18 UCLA 2.62 3 3.23 3.27 3.52 15.64 3.128

19 Clemson 2.38 3.08 3.4 3.22 3.42 15.5 3.1

20 South Carolina 2.61 2.96 3.08 3.42 3.18 15.25 3.05

21 Texas A&M 2.93 3.23 2.96 2.89 3.17 15.18 3.036

22 Maryland 3 3.08 3 2.85 3.11 15.04 3.008

23 Oregon 3 2.87 2.67 3.24 3.25 15.03 3.006

24 Virginia Tech 2.74 3.08 3 2.73 3.1 14.65 2.93

25 Arizona 2.44 3.17 3.28 2.72 3 14.61 2.922

Granted, last years totals did raise Alabama's ranking above Auburn, but in fact those totals did not affect the rankings by much. Along with this let me show you some other teams that might surprise you where they landed in the recruiting rankings during the last five years.

31. Boston College 2.8 2.81 2.85 2.83 2.83 14.12 2.824

36. Missouri 2.58 2.83 2.63 2.89 3 13.93 2.786

40. Wisconsin 2.48 2.74 2.7 3.06 2.83 13.81 2.762

41. Illinois 2.29 2.57 2.89 3 3 13.75 2.75

44. Kansas 2.42 2.65 2.72 2.57 3.1 13.46 2.692

45. Louisville 2.13 2.59 2.92 3.06 2.59 13.29 2.658

50. West Virginia 2.41 2.48 2.63 2.96 2.63 13.11 2.622

Again, It really is a sad sight, that Alabama fans have to resort to this kind of smack simply because their little boys on the pee wee team haven't beaten us in six years and are losing to the likes of UL Monroe, yes I know it's only one game, but when was the last time an SEC school lost to a team like that? I don't even know if Vanderbilt has accomplished that feat in recent years. My personal opinion is when you beat us, or any other team that is worth a damn, then you can talk, until then shut your trap and take your beatings like men, instead of as a bunch of whiners (we lost because of this, we'll win in the future, wah wah wah). It still doesn't mean anything more than a pile of dung.

[WarTim 3,463]

Here's some TRUTH for ya'....You gotta' COACH 'em after you sign 'em!

S I X...Now there's the TRUTH ! ! !