All things rankings

[AU64 10,122]

Sorry E...still have to challenge you on this...and generally you are correct, the prediction capability of the star ratings is worse than the latest poll on who will be the Republican candidate for president. So why does everyone get bent our of shape because their favorite player is only a 4* when they know he could be a 5*? ....or when, for some incomprehensible reason AU's composite ranking does not seem to add up ?

BUT back to the math. If the star system even had the remotest validity, there would still be far more 5* players on NFL rosters than we see these days....again....it's not a lottery. Top players should always be the top players at every level. Of the millions of kids in college these days, which ones have the best chance to be doctors....the 3.0 students or the 4.0 students....just like in other aspects of life there are measurements that are supposed to make it somewhat possible to predict success....but of course we know it does not work that way in sports....some/many kids peak out in HS and others bloom late.

So, just saying...we ought to quit pretending that the ratings of recruits and team ranking mean anything....I mean, if the * ratings don't predict future success, why even go there? Best answer is that there are enough people who will buy the services that actually believe that because a guy is a 5* in HS that he will be a dominant player in college....hell, even the kids believe it when they start talking about "business decisions" and their future NFL careers.

[Mikey 16,578]

A much more accurate evaluation of our class would be a composite score based on Scout, Rivals. 247, ESPN, etc.

wde

You must have missed the "Composite rankings are a joke" thread. An actual composite ranking, using a pencil and paper, puts us at, I think, #4. 247's Composite Ranking places us at 9th, even though no single service rates us that low. Maybe it's 247 that's weird.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Look up and down the roster of each team and you'll find quite a few players that weren't as highly rated.

That should be expected given 95% of all players who get ranked are 3* or lower. If a team has 3 or more 4*s+ on their team those players are beating the odds.

You may want to brush up on your statistics. Consider how many kids play HS ball and even if the best 1% are classed as 5*, that is still a decent number of kids.....and the actual number of 4* kids is pretty substantial. Climb the pyramid past college, toward the NFL and the % of HS kids who will make it to each level diminishes hugely until we find that the percent of HS kids who make the NFL is miniscule ...not even 1% probability.

SO...if the star rating predictors are correct/valid, all the 2*, 3* and many 4* should be winnowed out along the way until the NFL rosters SHOULD be predominantly populated by 5* HS players.

Making an NFL roster is not a lottery or random chance where the larger the population, the greater the chance of making it. The fact that 95% of HS players are 3* or less means nothing because if you figure the pool of candidates over 5 or 6 years, there are more than enough 5* players coming through the system to dominate every NFL team with some left over.

The problem is the star system is subjective...and fortunately for the people making money off it, they do not have to actually prove that their "system" predicts much of anything.

http://www.shmoop.co...getting-in.html

LOL. There are around 30 5* players in any given recruiting class. There are 1,856 active roster spots in the NFL. For the NFL to be "predominantly" 5* players, or over half, that would take 30+ recruiting classes. The average NFL career is 3.3 years.

[metafour 4,969]

LOL. There are around 30 5* players in any given recruiting class. There are 1,856 active roster spots in the NFL. For the NFL to be "predominantly" 5* players, or over half, that would take 30+ recruiting classes. The average NFL career is 3.3 years.

Exactly. Buddy needs to rework his class on statistics.

A "5-star" player is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to be drafted than a "3-star" player. The rankings do, in large, translate over.

[tsande07 271]

LOL. There are around 30 5* players in any given recruiting class. There are 1,856 active roster spots in the NFL. For the NFL to be "predominantly" 5* players, or over half, that would take 30+ recruiting classes. The average NFL career is 3.3 years.

Exactly. Buddy needs to rework his class on statistics.

A "5-star" player is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to be drafted than a "3-star" player. The rankings do, in large, translate over.

+1

[cooltigger21 0]

When talking about pro football you have to take into account the salary cap and how it affects teams. They would love to look like the Steelers of the 70's, the 49ers of the 80's or the Cowboys of the 90's. They can't keep a team like that together for long. You have to make it with a few really great players at key positions like QB and then fill in the remaining spots with good players but not necessarily hall of famers. That's how NE has stayed so consistent.

[AuburnSpider 2]

I'll tell ya one damn thing if I were a paying member of 247 I wouldn't be.

[AUbritt 611]

I'll tell ya one damn thing if I were a paying member of 247 I wouldn't be.

Paradox-ic-LOL.

[AURex 1,994]

The star ranking system is not intended to predict success as an NFL prospect. It is intended to represent readiness to contribute to a college football team. A 5 star player is graded as being able to make a more substantial contribution and earlier than a 4 star or 3 star player.

Even those involved in grading players recognize the unpredictability of the longer term. Academic issues, family issues, health issues, social issues -- there are just a lot of unpredictable factors. All the rating system is intended to offer is a grade of a high school player of readiness to play at the collegiate level on the basis of talent, physical development and football smarts.

And the rating system is definitely not intended as a prediction of NFL success. In college ball, a smaller player can be very successful and a less talented player can make a very real contribution within the context of a team. That player could be a 5 star player coming out of high school. But that same player, even if very successful at the college level, may not be considered a potential success in the NFL. Conversely, many young men continue developing throughout their college playing career and become much better pro prospects, even though they were not highly regarded coming out of high school.

It's great to sign a lot of 4 and 5 star players, but I never discount the potential of 3 star players who the coaches seek out. They can develop into outstanding team members and genuine pro prospects.

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

The star ranking system is not intended to predict success as an NFL prospect. It is intended to represent readiness to contribute to a college football team. A 5 star player is graded as being able to make a more substantial contribution and earlier than a 4 star or 3 star player.

Even those involved in grading players recognize the unpredictability of the longer term. Academic issues, family issues, health issues, social issues -- there are just a lot of unpredictable factors. All the rating system is intended to offer is a grade of a high school player of readiness to play at the collegiate level on the basis of talent, physical development and football smarts.

And the rating system is definitely not intended as a prediction of NFL success. In college ball, a smaller player can be very successful and a less talented player can make a very real contribution within the context of a team. That player could be a 5 star player coming out of high school. But that same player, even if very successful at the college level, may not be considered a potential success in the NFL. Conversely, many young men continue developing throughout their college playing career and become much better pro prospects, even though they were not highly regarded coming out of high school.

It's great to sign a lot of 4 and 5 star players, but I never discount the potential of 3 star players who the coaches seek out. They can develop into outstanding team members and genuine pro prospects.

247 rates 32 players as 5 stars as players who they believe will be drafted in the first round... So technically they are rated for NFL prospect success.

[AURex 1,994]

Yes, you are right, 247 goes a lot further than the other rating services. Most simply say that their 5 star indicates the player is among the 25-50 best in the country that year. A couple of them say 5 star players have pro potential. But they are really over-stepping when doing that.

1. Most ratings are based on the players in the pool that year. A 4 star this year might have been a 3 star last year or a 5 star next year, depending on the overall pool of players.

2. The ratings rarely account for character and academics, and certainly cannot anticipate injuries, family/social issues and motivation to compete. There are 5 star players who never really make an impact and 3 star players who are starters. There are examples of those facts on the Auburn team.

3. The success of a player often depends on the team he ends up playing for. A 5 star that signs with Bama may sit for years behind other starters, whereas the same player on another team might be starting as a freshman and ready to turn pro early.

Any service that claims their ratings are predictive of eventual NFL success, or even being drafted, is really stretching their crystal ballness.

[tsande07 271]

...and, as we all know, that can get uncomfortable fast...

[CameronCrazy 1,059]

Updated 2016 Rivals 250

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3513/2016

[CameronCrazy 1,059]

Notable Auburn prospects that I think Auburn has the best shot to land.

2. Marlon Davidson

3. Shea Patterson

5. Nate Craig-Myers

7. Derrick Brown

9. Levonta Taylor

14. Ben Davis

16. Lyndell "Mack" Wilson

17. Keion Joyner

21. Savion Smith

24. Dedrick Snelson

29. Elijah Stove

34. Keandre Jones

43. Keontay Anderson

46. Julian Rochester

52. Antwaun Jackson

54. Tevian Feaster

56. EJ Price

58. Willie Allen

68. Dwayne Haskins

74. Trayvon Mullen

81. Michael Menet

87. McTelvin Agim

89. JoeJuan Williams

92. Tre Lamar

100. Marquez Callaway

103. Stephen Davis, Jr.

107. Jonah Williams

113. Elijah Holyfield

117. Juwon Pass

121. PJ Blue

137. Josh Imartobhebhe

138. Binjimen Victor

151. John Broussard

161. Shaq Quartermain

171. Brice Matthews

188. Jeremiah Moon

194. Trevon Diggs

199. Antonio Williams

201. Clark Yarborough

203. Charles Wiley

213. Xavier Gaines

[au_bsci_04 407]

Adding Character and CFA jumps us 10 spots into #13 on Composite

[ellitor 33,091]

In a rather strange note, if Lowell commits to AU tonight as expected 3 of the top 4 ranked recruits combining the '16 and '17 classes will be from the 2017 class.

[thaitopher 807]

In a rather strange note, if Lowell commits to AU tonight as expected 3 of the top 4 ranked recruits combining the '16 and '17 classes will be from the 2017 class.

That's equivalent to playing yourself in a game of chess. The good news is you win. Then you also lose.

[au_bsci_04 407]

Shea Patterson new 247 Composite #1 QB, #4 overall.

[au_bsci_04 407]

Adding Character and CFA jumps us 10 spots into #13 on Composite

Well damn, these looked good a few weeks ago and now both are committed elsewhere.

[dilligas 581]

I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position.

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position.

It's not even close to February. We'll be fine.

[aujeff11 6,243]

I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position.

It's not even close to February. We'll be fine.

Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not?

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position.

It's not even close to February. We'll be fine.

Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not?

I have confidence in the fact that there's one thing this staff can do, and that's recruit. An example is 2012, Top 10 class even with a 3-9 season. I know there was a new staff and momentum was in our favor back then, but I know this staff can bring everything together. Whether we're ranked where we as fans want to be ranked or not, the staff will sign as many as we can sign, and they will get the players that fit our system of play.

[aujeff11 6,243]

I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position.

It's not even close to February. We'll be fine.

Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not?

I have confidence in the fact that there's one thing this staff can do, and that's recruit. An example is 2012, Top 10 class even with a 3-9 season. I know there was a new staff and momentum was in our favor back then, but I know this staff can bring everything together. Whether we're ranked where we as fans want to be ranked or not, the staff will sign as many as we can sign, and they will get the players that fit our system of play.

You have more confidence than I do.

[au_bsci_04 407]

I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position.

It's not even close to February. We'll be fine.

Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not?

I have confidence in the fact that there's one thing this staff can do, and that's recruit. An example is 2012, Top 10 class even with a 3-9 season. I know there was a new staff and momentum was in our favor back then, but I know this staff can bring everything together. Whether we're ranked where we as fans want to be ranked or not, the staff will sign as many as we can sign, and they will get the players that fit our system of play.

I agree our staff can recruit but the class you refer to ('13 in recruiting) is a travesty as far as how that paper class turned out on the field. That class is part of the reason we have glaring depth issues at vital positions.

Montravius Adams DT Vienna, GADooly County 6'3" 290 5 stars (needs help)

Mackenro Alexander DB Immokalee, FLImmokalee 6'0" 190 3 stars (transferred)

Cameron Artis-Payne RB Santa Maria, CAAllan Hancock C.C. 5'11" 210 4 stars (NFL)

Peyton Barber RB Alpharetta, GAMilton 5'10" 211 3 stars (good, not great)

Ben Bradley DT Hutchinson, KSHutchinson C.C. 6'2" 315 4 stars (juco for depth, gone)

Daniel Carlson K Colorado Springs, COClassical Academy 6'5" 195 3 stars

Elijah Daniel DE Avon, INAvon 6'3" 249 4 stars (criminal, gone)

Devonte Danzey OL Hutchinson, KSHutchinson C.C. 6'3" 285 3stars (senior backup)

Marcus Davis ATH Delray Beach, FLAmerican Heritage School 5'11" 170 3 stars (plays some)

Kenny Flowers LB Hutchinson, KSHutchinson C.C. 6'2" 225 3 stars (juco for depth, gone)

Johnathan Ford RB New Hope, ALNew Hope 5'11" 190 4 stars (starts at S, inconsistent)

Khari Harding DB Edmond, OKSanta Fe 6'1" 205 3 stars (transferred)

Jimmy Hutchinson K Kennesaw, GAHarrison 6'2" 175 3 stars (was bad as a P, transferred)

Jeremy Johnson QB Montgomery, ALCarver 6'6" 215 4 stars (crashed and burned)

Brandon King DB Highland, KSHighland C.C. 6'2" 210 3 stars (juco for depth, made NFL roster)

Carl Lawson DE Alpharetta, GAMilton 6'2" 253 4.7 5 stars (snakebit by injury?)

Nick Marshall QB Garden City, KSGarden City C.C. 6'2" 190 3 stars (most underrated QB in AU history?, NFL as CB)

Kamryn Melton DB Dothan, ALDothan 5'10" 165 3 stars (gone)

Deon Mix OL Batesville, MSSouth Panola 6'4" 305 4 stars (second team)

Earnest Robinson WR Pinson Valley, ALPinson Valley 6'3" 200 4 stars (never qualified)

Jason Smith ATH Mobile, ALMcGill Toolen 6'1" 187 4 stars (had to go juco, resigned, plays)

Tony Stevens WR Orlando, FLEvans 6'3" 175 4 stars (not able to break through yet)

Cameron Toney LB Huntsville, ALHuntsville 6'3" 225 3 stars (unlikely to contribute)

Dominic Walker WR Orlando, FLEvans 6'2" 195 3 stars (transferred)