AU64 10,122 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sorry E...still have to challenge you on this...and generally you are correct, the prediction capability of the star ratings is worse than the latest poll on who will be the Republican candidate for president. So why does everyone get bent our of shape because their favorite player is only a 4* when they know he could be a 5*? ....or when, for some incomprehensible reason AU's composite ranking does not seem to add up ? BUT back to the math. If the star system even had the remotest validity, there would still be far more 5* players on NFL rosters than we see these days....again....it's not a lottery. Top players should always be the top players at every level. Of the millions of kids in college these days, which ones have the best chance to be doctors....the 3.0 students or the 4.0 students....just like in other aspects of life there are measurements that are supposed to make it somewhat possible to predict success....but of course we know it does not work that way in sports....some/many kids peak out in HS and others bloom late. So, just saying...we ought to quit pretending that the ratings of recruits and team ranking mean anything....I mean, if the * ratings don't predict future success, why even go there? Best answer is that there are enough people who will buy the services that actually believe that because a guy is a 5* in HS that he will be a dominant player in college....hell, even the kids believe it when they start talking about "business decisions" and their future NFL careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey 16,603 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 A much more accurate evaluation of our class would be a composite score based on Scout, Rivals. 247, ESPN, etc. wde You must have missed the "Composite rankings are a joke" thread. An actual composite ranking, using a pencil and paper, puts us at, I think, #4. 247's Composite Ranking places us at 9th, even though no single service rates us that low. Maybe it's 247 that's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Look up and down the roster of each team and you'll find quite a few players that weren't as highly rated. That should be expected given 95% of all players who get ranked are 3* or lower. If a team has 3 or more 4*s+ on their team those players are beating the odds. You may want to brush up on your statistics. Consider how many kids play HS ball and even if the best 1% are classed as 5*, that is still a decent number of kids.....and the actual number of 4* kids is pretty substantial. Climb the pyramid past college, toward the NFL and the % of HS kids who will make it to each level diminishes hugely until we find that the percent of HS kids who make the NFL is miniscule ...not even 1% probability. SO...if the star rating predictors are correct/valid, all the 2*, 3* and many 4* should be winnowed out along the way until the NFL rosters SHOULD be predominantly populated by 5* HS players. Making an NFL roster is not a lottery or random chance where the larger the population, the greater the chance of making it. The fact that 95% of HS players are 3* or less means nothing because if you figure the pool of candidates over 5 or 6 years, there are more than enough 5* players coming through the system to dominate every NFL team with some left over. The problem is the star system is subjective...and fortunately for the people making money off it, they do not have to actually prove that their "system" predicts much of anything. http://www.shmoop.co...getting-in.html LOL. There are around 30 5* players in any given recruiting class. There are 1,856 active roster spots in the NFL. For the NFL to be "predominantly" 5* players, or over half, that would take 30+ recruiting classes. The average NFL career is 3.3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metafour 4,969 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 LOL. There are around 30 5* players in any given recruiting class. There are 1,856 active roster spots in the NFL. For the NFL to be "predominantly" 5* players, or over half, that would take 30+ recruiting classes. The average NFL career is 3.3 years. Exactly. Buddy needs to rework his class on statistics. A "5-star" player is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to be drafted than a "3-star" player. The rankings do, in large, translate over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsande07 271 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 LOL. There are around 30 5* players in any given recruiting class. There are 1,856 active roster spots in the NFL. For the NFL to be "predominantly" 5* players, or over half, that would take 30+ recruiting classes. The average NFL career is 3.3 years. Exactly. Buddy needs to rework his class on statistics. A "5-star" player is SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to be drafted than a "3-star" player. The rankings do, in large, translate over. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooltigger21 0 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 When talking about pro football you have to take into account the salary cap and how it affects teams. They would love to look like the Steelers of the 70's, the 49ers of the 80's or the Cowboys of the 90's. They can't keep a team like that together for long. You have to make it with a few really great players at key positions like QB and then fill in the remaining spots with good players but not necessarily hall of famers. That's how NE has stayed so consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnSpider 2 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'll tell ya one damn thing if I were a paying member of 247 I wouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUbritt 611 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'll tell ya one damn thing if I were a paying member of 247 I wouldn't be. Paradox-ic-LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURex 1,998 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The star ranking system is not intended to predict success as an NFL prospect. It is intended to represent readiness to contribute to a college football team. A 5 star player is graded as being able to make a more substantial contribution and earlier than a 4 star or 3 star player. Even those involved in grading players recognize the unpredictability of the longer term. Academic issues, family issues, health issues, social issues -- there are just a lot of unpredictable factors. All the rating system is intended to offer is a grade of a high school player of readiness to play at the collegiate level on the basis of talent, physical development and football smarts. And the rating system is definitely not intended as a prediction of NFL success. In college ball, a smaller player can be very successful and a less talented player can make a very real contribution within the context of a team. That player could be a 5 star player coming out of high school. But that same player, even if very successful at the college level, may not be considered a potential success in the NFL. Conversely, many young men continue developing throughout their college playing career and become much better pro prospects, even though they were not highly regarded coming out of high school. It's great to sign a lot of 4 and 5 star players, but I never discount the potential of 3 star players who the coaches seek out. They can develop into outstanding team members and genuine pro prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClaytonAU 4,606 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The star ranking system is not intended to predict success as an NFL prospect. It is intended to represent readiness to contribute to a college football team. A 5 star player is graded as being able to make a more substantial contribution and earlier than a 4 star or 3 star player. Even those involved in grading players recognize the unpredictability of the longer term. Academic issues, family issues, health issues, social issues -- there are just a lot of unpredictable factors. All the rating system is intended to offer is a grade of a high school player of readiness to play at the collegiate level on the basis of talent, physical development and football smarts. And the rating system is definitely not intended as a prediction of NFL success. In college ball, a smaller player can be very successful and a less talented player can make a very real contribution within the context of a team. That player could be a 5 star player coming out of high school. But that same player, even if very successful at the college level, may not be considered a potential success in the NFL. Conversely, many young men continue developing throughout their college playing career and become much better pro prospects, even though they were not highly regarded coming out of high school. It's great to sign a lot of 4 and 5 star players, but I never discount the potential of 3 star players who the coaches seek out. They can develop into outstanding team members and genuine pro prospects. 247 rates 32 players as 5 stars as players who they believe will be drafted in the first round... So technically they are rated for NFL prospect success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AURex 1,998 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yes, you are right, 247 goes a lot further than the other rating services. Most simply say that their 5 star indicates the player is among the 25-50 best in the country that year. A couple of them say 5 star players have pro potential. But they are really over-stepping when doing that. 1. Most ratings are based on the players in the pool that year. A 4 star this year might have been a 3 star last year or a 5 star next year, depending on the overall pool of players. 2. The ratings rarely account for character and academics, and certainly cannot anticipate injuries, family/social issues and motivation to compete. There are 5 star players who never really make an impact and 3 star players who are starters. There are examples of those facts on the Auburn team. 3. The success of a player often depends on the team he ends up playing for. A 5 star that signs with Bama may sit for years behind other starters, whereas the same player on another team might be starting as a freshman and ready to turn pro early. Any service that claims their ratings are predictive of eventual NFL success, or even being drafted, is really stretching their crystal ballness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsande07 271 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 ...and, as we all know, that can get uncomfortable fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CameronCrazy 1,062 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Updated 2016 Rivals 250 http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3513/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CameronCrazy 1,062 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Notable Auburn prospects that I think Auburn has the best shot to land. 2. Marlon Davidson 3. Shea Patterson 5. Nate Craig-Myers 7. Derrick Brown 9. Levonta Taylor 14. Ben Davis 16. Lyndell "Mack" Wilson 17. Keion Joyner 21. Savion Smith 24. Dedrick Snelson 29. Elijah Stove 34. Keandre Jones 43. Keontay Anderson 46. Julian Rochester 52. Antwaun Jackson 54. Tevian Feaster 56. EJ Price 58. Willie Allen 68. Dwayne Haskins 74. Trayvon Mullen 81. Michael Menet 87. McTelvin Agim 89. JoeJuan Williams 92. Tre Lamar 100. Marquez Callaway 103. Stephen Davis, Jr. 107. Jonah Williams 113. Elijah Holyfield 117. Juwon Pass 121. PJ Blue 137. Josh Imartobhebhe 138. Binjimen Victor 151. John Broussard 161. Shaq Quartermain 171. Brice Matthews 188. Jeremiah Moon 194. Trevon Diggs 199. Antonio Williams 201. Clark Yarborough 203. Charles Wiley 213. Xavier Gaines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
au_bsci_04 407 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Adding Character and CFA jumps us 10 spots into #13 on Composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,093 Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 In a rather strange note, if Lowell commits to AU tonight as expected 3 of the top 4 ranked recruits combining the '16 and '17 classes will be from the 2017 class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaitopher 807 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 In a rather strange note, if Lowell commits to AU tonight as expected 3 of the top 4 ranked recruits combining the '16 and '17 classes will be from the 2017 class. That's equivalent to playing yourself in a game of chess. The good news is you win. Then you also lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
au_bsci_04 407 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Shea Patterson new 247 Composite #1 QB, #4 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
au_bsci_04 407 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Adding Character and CFA jumps us 10 spots into #13 on Composite Well damn, these looked good a few weeks ago and now both are committed elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilligas 581 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClaytonAU 4,606 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position. It's not even close to February. We'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position. It's not even close to February. We'll be fine. Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClaytonAU 4,606 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position. It's not even close to February. We'll be fine. Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not? I have confidence in the fact that there's one thing this staff can do, and that's recruit. An example is 2012, Top 10 class even with a 3-9 season. I know there was a new staff and momentum was in our favor back then, but I know this staff can bring everything together. Whether we're ranked where we as fans want to be ranked or not, the staff will sign as many as we can sign, and they will get the players that fit our system of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position. It's not even close to February. We'll be fine. Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not? I have confidence in the fact that there's one thing this staff can do, and that's recruit. An example is 2012, Top 10 class even with a 3-9 season. I know there was a new staff and momentum was in our favor back then, but I know this staff can bring everything together. Whether we're ranked where we as fans want to be ranked or not, the staff will sign as many as we can sign, and they will get the players that fit our system of play. You have more confidence than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
au_bsci_04 407 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I usually only follow recruiting the weeks leading up to NSD, so forgive my ignorance. I see AU is currently #28 in 247 Composite team rankings. Ouch, not getting much hope outta that. We've been in the top 10-15 so much the last 5 yrs or so I am shocked we've fallen off the board. Hopefully we are in on some big ones, because our staff is loaded with big time recruiters and we are in desperate need of fresh talent virtually at every position. It's not even close to February. We'll be fine. Whst makes you say thst we will be fine? What does fine equate to in rankings terms and what not? I have confidence in the fact that there's one thing this staff can do, and that's recruit. An example is 2012, Top 10 class even with a 3-9 season. I know there was a new staff and momentum was in our favor back then, but I know this staff can bring everything together. Whether we're ranked where we as fans want to be ranked or not, the staff will sign as many as we can sign, and they will get the players that fit our system of play. I agree our staff can recruit but the class you refer to ('13 in recruiting) is a travesty as far as how that paper class turned out on the field. That class is part of the reason we have glaring depth issues at vital positions. Montravius Adams DT Vienna, GADooly County 6'3" 290 5 stars (needs help) Mackenro Alexander DB Immokalee, FLImmokalee 6'0" 190 3 stars (transferred) Cameron Artis-Payne RB Santa Maria, CAAllan Hancock C.C. 5'11" 210 4 stars (NFL) Peyton Barber RB Alpharetta, GAMilton 5'10" 211 3 stars (good, not great) Ben Bradley DT Hutchinson, KSHutchinson C.C. 6'2" 315 4 stars (juco for depth, gone) Daniel Carlson K Colorado Springs, COClassical Academy 6'5" 195 3 stars Elijah Daniel DE Avon, INAvon 6'3" 249 4 stars (criminal, gone) Devonte Danzey OL Hutchinson, KSHutchinson C.C. 6'3" 285 3stars (senior backup) Marcus Davis ATH Delray Beach, FLAmerican Heritage School 5'11" 170 3 stars (plays some) Kenny Flowers LB Hutchinson, KSHutchinson C.C. 6'2" 225 3 stars (juco for depth, gone) Johnathan Ford RB New Hope, ALNew Hope 5'11" 190 4 stars (starts at S, inconsistent) Khari Harding DB Edmond, OKSanta Fe 6'1" 205 3 stars (transferred) Jimmy Hutchinson K Kennesaw, GAHarrison 6'2" 175 3 stars (was bad as a P, transferred) Jeremy Johnson QB Montgomery, ALCarver 6'6" 215 4 stars (crashed and burned) Brandon King DB Highland, KSHighland C.C. 6'2" 210 3 stars (juco for depth, made NFL roster) Carl Lawson DE Alpharetta, GAMilton 6'2" 253 4.7 5 stars (snakebit by injury?) Nick Marshall QB Garden City, KSGarden City C.C. 6'2" 190 3 stars (most underrated QB in AU history?, NFL as CB) Kamryn Melton DB Dothan, ALDothan 5'10" 165 3 stars (gone) Deon Mix OL Batesville, MSSouth Panola 6'4" 305 4 stars (second team) Earnest Robinson WR Pinson Valley, ALPinson Valley 6'3" 200 4 stars (never qualified) Jason Smith ATH Mobile, ALMcGill Toolen 6'1" 187 4 stars (had to go juco, resigned, plays) Tony Stevens WR Orlando, FLEvans 6'3" 175 4 stars (not able to break through yet) Cameron Toney LB Huntsville, ALHuntsville 6'3" 225 3 stars (unlikely to contribute) Dominic Walker WR Orlando, FLEvans 6'2" 195 3 stars (transferred) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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