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StatTiger

Obtaining the most from the running game

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Though we fondly remember the 2004 run offense with Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown, it is an interesting note the 2015 Auburn run-offense was slightly better than the 2004 Auburn run-offense.

The 2004 Auburn running game averaged 183.3 yards per game on 4.31 yards per attempt, while scoring a TD every 20.5 attempts.

The 2015 Auburn running game averaged 196.3 yards per game on 4.35 yards per attempt, scoring a TD every 20.9 attempts.

More importantly, the 2004 run-offense gained an average of 17.4% more yardage rushing than the opponent normally allowed and the 2015 Auburn offense averaged 25.3%. In fact, the 2009 and 2011 run-offenses were more effective than the 2004 Auburn run-offense regarding the percentage of rushing yardage gained.

The above data reveals how important a supporting cast is when it comes to a "total team" concept. The 2004 Auburn Tigers had a very efficient passing game and a great defense, which took pressure away from the Auburn run-offense. This was not the case for the 2015 Auburn Tigers.

With this in mind, here is the percentage of yardage gained rushing, relative to what the opponent allowed for the season. The last column is the percentage of points the opponent was held to, relative to their normal scoring average.

The last 25 seasons:

Run%20Pct%20amp%20score%20Pct_zps6ha8m4cb.jpg

Once again, take a look at the 2004 and 2015 seasons. Even though the 2015 Auburn run-offense was more efficient than 2004, the 2004 Auburn scoring-defense made up for the difference. The 2004 Auburn defense had their opponent to 51% below their scoring average, while the 2015 Auburn defense held their opponent to 17% below the opponent's scoring average.

Over the past 25 years, Auburn has compiled a record of 113-26-1 in games the Auburn offense gained at least 25% more rushing yardage than the opponent normally allowed. This equates to a win percentage of .811 over the past 25 seasons. From 1991-2008, Auburn went 65-13-1, when they surpass 25% in rushing and 48-13-0 from 2009-2015. Auburn's lack of defense the past 7 years has forced the offense to be even more efficient to make up for the lack of productivity on the defensive side of the football.

From 1991-2008, Auburn reached the 25 percent goal in rushing offense, 36.4% of the time. Under Gus Malzahn, the Auburn run-offense has reached the 25 percent goal in 72.5% of their games. Even during seasons without Cam Newton and Nick Marshall, Malzahn's run-offense at Auburn has reached the 25 percent goal, 56.4% of the time. The difference came in scoring-defense, where the teams from 1991-2008 allowed an average of 18 PPG, when reaching the 25% goal on run-offense. The teams under Gus Malzahn have allowed 26 PPG, when the Auburn offense reached the 25% goal in run-offense.

Last year's 193 yards rushing per game should have been good enough to win 9-11 games. I expect the 2016 run-offense to be even better than 2015 but how the Auburn pass-offense and defense performs in 2016, will likely decide if Auburn can add to their 7-win total from 2015.

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Thanks Stat. WDE.

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So basically, defense wins football games.

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

Is this a trend that you feel will continue or just a phase that has ran its course?

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

Hasn't this been true since the creation of football?

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

Hasn't this been true since the creation of football?

Actually yes. but you could tie before 95.

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

Hasn't this been true since the creation of football?

No because their were tie ball games prior to the 1996 season when OT was introduced.

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so we almost doubled our opponents run yardage in 2013?

Yep.... in 2010 and 2013

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

Hasn't this been true since the creation of football?

No because their were tie ball games prior to the 1996 season when OT was introduced.

I know it's semantics, but the team with the most points has always won. If there wasn't a team with the most points, no one won.

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So basically, defense wins football games.

Since the 1995 season, the team with the most points wins the game.

Hasn't this been true since the creation of football?

LOL...I was thinking that as I was reading the posts and had to laugh when I read your post. Yes, lion...the one with the most points wins and that has always been the case. A tie would mean both have the same number of points.

Edited by REInvestingTiger

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