#17 in Coaches poll #15 in the AP

[msza 228]

16 hours ago, AUinTLoosa said:

Opinion only.

Moreover, clueless opinion.

I just cannot see a 2-loss AU in the CFP in any imaginable scenario.

Sorry.

 

The committee's initial rankings will tell us a lot. We have been playing like one of the best teams in the country lately, and the committee has talked a big game about ranking teams according to how they are playing right now. If they really mean that they will rank us pretty damn high, assuming we continue to look like a top team.

We haven't seen such a dramatic in-season turnaround in the CFP era so we don't yet know if the committee is for real or not. We'll know soon.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

12 minutes ago, msza said:

The committee's initial rankings will tell us a lot. We have been playing like one of the best teams in the country lately, and the committee has talked a big game about ranking teams according to how they are playing right now. If they really mean that they will rank us pretty damn high, assuming we continue to look like a top team.

We haven't seen such a dramatic in-season turnaround in the CFP era so we don't yet know if the committee is for real or not. We'll know soon.

It will be interesting to see what their rankings look like next week. If we win this weekend, and a few of the undefeated teams lose, (WV, CLem, Nebraska, all have tests), it will be a log jab from 15th-5th of teams with loses. Additionally, all the power indexes love us, we are #7 on espn's, #10 on Massey's, and #7 in Sagarin's. What will the playoff poll look like, the AP or the indexes? 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Just for comparison sake, here are the week 9 AP poll and the week 9 playoff poll from last season:

Ap: 1 Ohio State, 2 Baylor, 3 Clemson, 4 Lsu, 5 TCU, 6 Mich State, 7 Alabama, 8 Stanford, 9 Notre Dame, 10 Iowa

Cp: 1 Clemson, 2 LSU, 3 Ohio State, 4 Alabama, 5 Notre Dame, 6 Baylor, 7 Mich State, 8 TCU, 9 Iowa, 10 Florida

Certainly, not in direct harmony. Of note, the final committee rankings included Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma. Clemson and Alabama both started ranked in the top 4, Michigan state moved up from #7 and Oklahoma moved up from #15. Also of note, Stanford finished #6, Notre Dame #8, Florida State #9 and North Carolina #10, all with 2 losses, so a two loss team was close last year from a week conference. Regarding Stanford, the opened in the CP poll at #11 with a record of 7-1, so they lost a game in week 11 and still climbed to #6 in the final poll. 

All this to say, if teams in front of us lose a few and we win out, it could happen. 

[jtauburntiger 119]

On 10/25/2016 at 11:41 AM, Charhair said:

THIS!!! 

Teams with money that were left out in place of Bama or that could see the same happening to them in upcoming years would be PISSED. 

If Bama doesn't make it to the SECCG and the winner of that game is a 2 loss sec team and Bama still gets to the playoffs as the only sec team, I would view that scenario as the playoff system not working. As would all of auburn and many other schools media teams.

 I'd love to see a two loss AU team make it to the playoffs while a one loss Bama team doesn't get to the playoffs or the SECCG. Not only for the fact that auburn would have a chance to win it all but could you imagine all of the excuses and hatred that would be coming out of the Bama fanbase??

I am not so sure that we would see uproar.... How much uproar did we get in 2004?  There were not schools all over the country coming out of the wood works to defend AU 2004, even when on paper - we were the best of the 3 teams without dispute.   -  it was the beginning of the SEC's dominance and it may have helped LSU's 2 loss team win a NC a couple of years later.  But I don't remember anyone standing up for us.   and I actually remember Tennessee (Fulmer) coming out and saying that we were not that good - after we beat him a second time.  

So the thought that the world will have AU's back is a bit of a fairy tale at this point.  

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

Scenario engineering can be the kiss of death but IMO the not unlikely highlighted events below get us in serious minded playoff conversations:

Auburn wins out.

Bama only lose to Auburn (and IMO with the way the media is hyping Bama if we win out and hand Bama any type of loss we are looking at #4 because even if Bama wins a coin-toss SEC west tie-breaker with us they will hammer any SEC east rep - probably a top 10 UF team - in the SEC championship game. 

Clemson wins out 

aTm lose to LSU

Michigan and Washington lose at least one convincingly then squeak by in another.

Louisville loses to Houston or in the ACC title game but IMO we jump the Cardinals even if both Auburn (SEC) & Louisville (ACC) win out 

Ohio state lose to ANY of their 4 remaining not-crazy-loss possibilities

W Va loses to ANY of their 3 remaining non joke opponents then win a squeeker or 2

Wisco loses to EITHER Nebraksa or Ohio St

Baylor loses convincingly to ANYBODY 

The rest can win out and we still jump them IMO if we win out, including a royally torqued undefeated Boise St if they go undefeated.

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

29 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Scenario engineering can be the kiss of death but IMO the not unlikely highlighted events below get us in serious minded playoff conversations:

Auburn wins out.

Bama only lose to Auburn (and IMO with the way the media is hyping Bama if we win out and hand Bama any type of loss we are looking at #4 because even if Bama wins a coin-toss SEC west tie-breaker with us they will hammer any SEC east rep - probably a top 10 UF team - in the SEC championship game. 

Clemson wins out 

aTm lose to LSU

Michigan and Washington lose at least one convincingly then squeak by in another.

Louisville loses to Houston or in the ACC title game but IMO we jump the Cardinals even if both Auburn (SEC) & Louisville (ACC) win out 

Ohio state lose to ANY of their 4 remaining not-crazy-loss possibilities

W Va loses to ANY of their 3 remaining non joke opponents then win a squeeker or 2

Wisco loses to EITHER Nebraksa or Ohio St

Baylor loses convincingly to ANYBODY 

The rest can win out and we still jump them IMO if we win out, including a royally torqued undefeated Boise St if they go undefeated.

 

If we are the only team to beat bama and A&M also loses to LSU, we play in the SEC championship.  The whole coin toss thing is a last resort when 8 other things are even. In a 2-way tie, the winner of the head-to-head match-up goes. I don't even know why they have the 8 other possibilities, considering that every team in the west plays every other team in the west, and if they don't, say because of a hurricane, they are disqualified from post season play anyway.

Questions:

If Nebraska beats Wisconsin... who beats Nebraska?  They are currently undefeated.

What makes you think we jump a one-loss "fan favorite" Louisville and their Heisman front runner QB?

Same question for undefeated Boise? Has a 2-loss team ever jumped an undefeated team?

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

19 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

If we are the only team to beat bama and A&M also loses to LSU, we play in the SEC championship.  The whole coin toss thing is a last resort when 8 other things are even. In a 2-way tie, the winner of the head-to-head match-up goes. I don't even know why they have the 8 other possibilities, considering that every team in the west plays every other team in the west, and if they don't, say because of a hurricane, they are disqualified from post season play anyway.

Questions:

If Nebraska beats Wisconsin... who beats Nebraska?  They are currently undefeated.

What makes you think we jump a one-loss "fan favorite" Louisville and their Heisman front runner QB?

Same question for undefeated Boise? Has a 2-loss team ever jumped an undefeated team?

Considering the small sample size we have I don't it has, but last year a one loss Houston team finished 18th in the final Committee Poll. Hard to believe they would have finished 14 spots higher without that loss. 

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, JwgreDeux said:

17 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

Has a 2-loss team ever jumped an undefeated team?

Considering the small sample size we have I don't it has, but last year a one loss Houston team finished 18th in the final Committee Poll. Hard to believe they would have finished 14 spots higher without that loss. 

I wasn't just talking for the committee.  I don't know that I've ever seen a final poll where a 2 loss team was ranked higher than an undefeated team.  I know the pollsters salivate for the mid-majors to get a loss, because they plummet them once they have that one loss.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

I wasn't just talking for the committee.  I don't know that I've ever seen a final poll where a 2 loss team was ranked higher than an undefeated team.  I know the pollsters salivate for the mid-majors to get a loss, because they plummet them once they have that one loss.

In 2014 a two loss Boise State finished 20th behind 10 teams with 3 losses, and one spot behind a 4 loss Auburn. (in the CP poll). So they clearly get very little respect. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

Just now, JwgreDeux said:

In 2014 a two loss Boise State finished 20th behind 10 teams with 3 losses, and one spot behind a 4 loss Auburn. (in the CP poll). So they clearly get very little respect. 

Yea... like I said... the pollsters salivate for that first loss, because once they get it, they are done.  It's when they don't have a loss at all that it becomes an issue. When they do have a loss, because of their conference, it's usually to a lesser team, so that, combined with poor strength of schedule, is enough to kick them to the curb. If they are undefeated, there's no grounds for saying they aren't good enough.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

6 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I wasn't just talking for the committee.  I don't know that I've ever seen a final poll where a 2 loss team was ranked higher than an undefeated team.  I know the pollsters salivate for the mid-majors to get a loss, because they plummet them once they have that one loss.

I took on your challenge and wasted about 10 minutes of my life and have found the answer to your question. In 2007 the final poll before the BCS bowl games, including the championship had undefeated Hawaii ranked 12th and receiving 1 first place vote. LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech, USC, and Missouri all had two losses and finished in front of Hawaii. Additionally, 3 loss Florida finished one spot ahead of Hawaii as well. Hawaii was the ONLY undefeated team that season.

 

It happened in 2006 as well to Boise State, who went undefeated in the regular season and prior to all bowl games was only ranked 9th, one spot ahead of 10-2 Auburn, and behind LSU,  Oklahoma, and USC all with 2 losses. 

 

I stopped looking at that point, but there you have it, YES it has happened before. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, JwgreDeux said:

I took on your challenge and wasted about 10 minutes of my life and have found the answer to your question. In 2007 the final poll before the BCS bowl games, including the championship had undefeated Hawaii ranked 12th and receiving 1 first place vote. LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech, USC, and Missouri all had two losses and finished in front of Hawaii. Additionally, 3 loss Florida finished one spot ahead of Hawaii as well. Hawaii was the ONLY undefeated team that season.

 

It happened in 2006 as well to Boise State, who went undefeated in the regular season and prior to all bowl games was only ranked 9th, one spot ahead of 10-2 Auburn, and behind LSU,  Oklahoma, and USC all with 2 losses. 

 

I stopped looking at that point, but there you have it, YES it has happened before. 

Wow... first, thanks for wasting the time and second, I stand corrected.  Maybe we can jump Boise.

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

Lest I be taken too seriously my "speculation" is mainly for fun. But last Lionheart question first. I'm going with history, in 2006 Boise State went undefeated, beat #7 Oklahoma in its bowl game and yet finished 6th behind TWO teams with 2 losses. Of course LSU also won a national title in 2007 with 2 losses. In my scenario, if Nebraska wins out they are in the playoffs along with Bama, Clemson and Auburn. I think we jump a one loss Louisville team if the final pre playoff poll shows they lost to the only team on their schedule that finished in that poll - Clemson. The Cardinals' only possible signature win is against an FSU team that may well end up with 4 losses if they add two more against Clemson and UF.    

[lionheartkc 6,150]

9 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Lest I be taken too seriously my "speculation" is mainly for fun. But last Lionheart question first. I'm going with history, in 2006 Boise State went undefeated, beat #7 Oklahoma in its bowl game and yet finished 6th behind TWO teams with 2 losses. Of course LSU also won a national title in 2007 with 2 losses. In my scenario, if Nebraska wins out they are in the playoffs along with Bama, Clemson and Auburn. I think we jump a one loss Louisville team if the final pre playoff poll shows they lost to the only team on their schedule that finished in that poll - Clemson. The Cardinals' only possible signature win is against an FSU team that may well end up with 4 losses if they add two more against Clemson and UF.    

I think, if Auburn beats bama, it's going to be the Big 10 Champion (and undefeated/1-loss Michigan or Nebraska... neither drop 2 games before the championship), the Pac 12 Champion (undefeated/1-loss Washington... have to beat Utah twice), the ACC Champion (Undefeated Clemson... the only one who could beat them is Louisville in the championship, in which case Louisville goes), and the Big 12 Champion (One loss West Virginia or Baylor.. at least one loses to Oklahoma, but neither drop 2 before they meet in the final game).  I think if Auburn beat bama it would hold the SEC out, since their champion is a 2-loss team, likely ranked below the team they beat.

[Linayus 676]

1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

I think, if Auburn beats bama, it's going to be the Big 10 Champion (and undefeated/1-loss Michigan or Nebraska... neither drop 2 games before the championship), the Pac 12 Champion (undefeated/1-loss Washington... have to beat Utah twice), the ACC Champion (Undefeated Clemson... the only one who could beat them is Louisville in the championship, in which case Louisville goes), and the Big 12 Champion (One loss West Virginia or Baylor.. at least one loses to Oklahoma, but neither drop 2 before they meet in the final game).  I think if Auburn beat bama it would hold the SEC out, since their champion is a 2-loss team, likely ranked below the team they beat.

The Big12 is still very much up for grabs, I think. But if Oklahoma wins out they'd have an undefeated conference record but still be a 2 loss team and would likely hold the Big12 out of the playoff again.

Washington and Utah will both have at least one loss, in my unbiased outlook. Do you still keep that champ in the top 4 even if the loss is to a lesser ranked opponent?

Does Louisville sneak in with their only loss being a close one to Clemson? Does Alabama sneak back in with one loss being to a very good 2-loss Auburn team?

1. Clemson (undefeated)
2. Michigan (undefeated)
3. Louisville (close loss to #1 Clemson)
4. Alabama (close loss to top-10 Auburn)
5. Washington (close loss to top-20 Utah)

Yes? No? It could happen! I can't wait to see how it all unfolds!

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

3 minutes ago, Linayus said:

The Big12 is still very much up for grabs, I think. But if Oklahoma wins out they'd have an undefeated conference record but still be a 2 loss team and would likely hold the Big12 out of the playoff again.

If Oklahoma beats both West Virginia and Baylor, you could be right.  With two losses already on their back, however, I think they drop one of those games and the conference champ is decided by the West Virginia v Baylor game.  They aren't called Chokelahoma for nothing. Your scenario is the only one in which I see a Big 12 team potentially getting the boot.

4 minutes ago, Linayus said:

Washington and Utah will both have at least one loss, in my unbiased outlook. Do you still keep that champ in the top 4 even if the loss is to a lesser ranked opponent?

Utah already has a loss... The question is, do the split their 2 games or does one win both.  If 1 wins both, than I think whoever that one is gets in, because they are a one-loss conference champ. If Washington knocks Utah off in their first meeting, then Utah vs Colorado will decided who plays Washington for the conference championship, but I think Washington will beat either if they already beat Utah once.

7 minutes ago, Linayus said:

Does Louisville sneak in with their only loss being a close one to Clemson? Does Alabama sneak back in with one loss being to a very good 2-loss Auburn team?

Louisville... maybe... because they are the team du jour and they would have to beat undefeated Clemson to win their conference... but if they did, Clemson would be out.  bama... no, because they aren't the conference champ if we take them down... UNLESS A&M survives and bama wins the 3-way, backing into a championship once again.

 

In any case... I think the committee will do everything they can to insure 4 of the Power-5 are represented, and those 4 are the conference champions. I think the result of the Iron Bowl might decided if the Big 12 or the SEC get left out.

[Charhair 345]

Finebaum had a good idea the other day

he said it should at least be pushed to 6 teams asap. First round bye for the top two

if auburn wins out, Bama, auburn, Louisville and others could be left out with teams they feel could win the playoffs. It would also give chances to schools like Houston ('15) 

[Linayus 676]

21 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

Louisville... maybe... because they are the team du jour and they would have to beat undefeated Clemson to win their conference... but if they did, Clemson would be out.

Louisville and Clemson are in the same division so unless Clemson loses twice they are going to the ACC Championship game to play North Carolina or VTech. Louisville would still be lurking right behind them with the 1 loss. That's why I think they have a really good shot to get two teams in. But if Clemson loses at all, I think they fall out and Louisville goes in their place.

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

11 minutes ago, Linayus said:

Louisville and Clemson are in the same division so unless Clemson loses twice they are going to the ACC Championship game to play North Carolina or VTech. Louisville would still be lurking right behind them with the 1 loss. That's why I think they have a really good shot to get two teams in. But if Clemson loses at all, I think they fall out and Louisville goes in their place.

 

My mistake.  I thought they were in separate divisions. I would count Louisville out, then.  I can't see Clemson losing at this point.

[Linayus 676]

8 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

My mistake.  I thought they were in separate divisions. I would count Louisville out, then.  I can't see Clemson losing at this point.

If they don't lose this weekend, you are probably right. But they've played to their opponents level a lot this season and definitely don't look like the team to beat this year.

[dmbseeker00 119]

If Auburn were win the Iron Bowl and finish the season 11-2 heading into the bowls, and Alabama ended the season 11-1 (after losing the Iron Bowl)....the realistic side of me sees the pollsters and media all placing Alabama in the playoff, with Auburn certainly being left out. I'm sure they will try to justify not dropping Alabama more than 3 spots in the final rankings, by pointing out how great a team Auburn is, and that Alabama was likely to end up with a loss at some point simply because they play in the SEC, blah blah blah. I can see it now.

We have seen alabama national championships won in similar ways before.

I'm just so happy to see our team playing so well. It is exciting to wake up on Saturday mornings right now. If the above scenario plays out as true, I won't even be surprised. Happy to be an Auburn Tiger!!!! War Eagle!

[lionheartkc 6,150]

47 minutes ago, Linayus said:

If they don't lose this weekend, you are probably right. But they've played to their opponents level a lot this season and definitely don't look like the team to beat this year.

Yea... my belief is not because I think they are world beaters... heck, I think we beat them outright if we play again... it's just that I have so little respect for their competition. Florida State, for instance, is a shell of what they usually are.

22 minutes ago, dmbseeker00 said:

If Auburn were win the Iron Bowl and finish the season 11-2 heading into the bowls, and Alabama ended the season 11-1 (after losing the Iron Bowl)....the realistic side of me sees the pollsters and media all placing Alabama in the playoff, with Auburn certainly being left out. I'm sure they will try to justify not dropping Alabama more than 3 spots in the final rankings, by pointing out how great a team Auburn is, and that Alabama was likely to end up with a loss at some point simply because they play in the SEC, blah blah blah. I can see it now.

The good news is, the committee does take conference championships pretty seriously.  I doubt very much that they would try to justify keeping a conference champion out of the playoff in order to put in a team that they beat. 

[Linayus 676]

1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

Yea... my belief is not because I think they are world beaters... heck, I think we beat them outright if we play again... it's just that I have so little respect for their competition. Florida State, for instance, is a shell of what they usually are.

I definitely agree. Survive this week and the rest should be a breeze for them.

[Linayus 676]

@lionheartkc - Some of my predictions are coming true already after this weekend! If only FL State could've knocked out Clemson and Louisville choked against Virginia!

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, Linayus said:

@lionheartkc - Some of my predictions are coming true already after this weekend! If only FL State could've knocked out Clemson and Louisville choked against Virginia!

Yup... the Big 12 didn't do themselves any favors, that's for sure.  I would definitely bet that they would take a 2-loss Auburn team that won the SEC over a 2-loss Oklahoma team that won the Big 12... and that is if Oklahoma can get through the 3 best teams they have to face in their conference, in a row.