Gus theory #87

[auburnatl1 4,895]

Thinking about Gus and his movement towards protect a lead/predictablity - is it more than not having a dual threat qb or defenses catching up to him, has an improving defense also screwed him up? Picking on 2013 for example, when no lead was safe, the play calling was much more aggressive in the second halves of games. When muschamp showed up and the defense began to improve, the offensive play calling began to change as well.  Some of this you’d want, but it went extreme and way out of balance, with the offensive mindset mutating to the point that it’s now the liability - as opposed to the entire team improving. 

Interestingly, Saban has evolved/approached this coming from the opposite direction.  But with much better results. Originally he had a pedestrian offense and lock down defense. But after a few notable losses to dynamic offenses, he changed his entire philosophy and opened up his offense as well. Now they have a killer approach on both sides and the entire team is better.

Net, net for Gus to be effective, does he need to believe he can’t trust his defense?

[alexava 6,973]

Almost makes sense. 

[BigWhiskey91 632]

I don’t think today’s Malzahn would attack Alabama like he attacked them in 2014. If you told me before that game that Marshall would throw for 450+ on Alabama, I would’ve laughed and only dreamed of it.

Its a 100% trust deal. He trusts the defense, but he doesn’t trust Stidham enough to throw over the middle. Not that he doesn’t trust Stidham, but he rather not risk INTs. It’s drilled into our QBs heads that they cannot turn the ball over. That’s why you saw Stidham, White and JJ dubble clutching throws at times. You could even argue that JJ was the start of the no over the middle throws. His 2014 game against Arkansas, he threw a few slants to Duke that went for big yardage and a post to Uzomah. He had the RPO ATL Melvin Ray and some square ins as well. Lots of intermediate passing over the middle. 

[ScottsboroAuburnFan 462]

When we  actually try to go fast in HUNH, we run really smooth. If we get a lead and slow things down, the OLine, WR, and QB are all so far out of sync...If we stay in slow mode very many drives it's a funk we can't shake. That's one reason a bad Defense made the O much better, we were hardly ever in slow mode. 

[auburnatl1 4,895]

As crazy as this sounds (and not the solution), I’m beginning to wonder if the past 3 years would have gone better if the defense had remained a dumpster fire. 

[keesler 5,924]

Maintaining a consistent and productive team in big time football is tough, it's a balancing act with constant moving parts.  Some HC's can handle it and excel, some can't.

[Tiger 8,819]

Interesting theory. IMO if the defense had remained a dumpster fire the last 2.5 years Gus would've been fired by now. Jeremy Johnson took Gus' soul and I think that's what mainly changed him. I think the defense getting better just drove his conservatism even deeper. Trying to hold on to a lead with a half left to play while only up <2 scores. That is unfathomable. The ghost of Gus Malzahn was shaking his head at that. 

I really think the pressure has gotten to him to where he just can't think objectively anymore. It happens. Hopefully his next stop will be immediately after AU so he doesn't have time to reflect on his shortcomings and correct them and use his training at AU to beat us.

[auburnatl1 4,895]

5 minutes ago, Tiger said:

 Jeremy Johnson took Gus' soul 

Sounds like a line from a Sunday morning TV pastor. Classic! 

Gus theory #88.

[ToomersStreet 795]

12 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Interesting theory. IMO if the defense had remained a dumpster fire the last 2.5 years Gus would've been fired by now. Jeremy Johnson took Gus' soul and I think that's what mainly changed him. I think the defense getting better just drove his conservatism even deeper. Trying to hold on to a lead with a half left to play while only up <2 scores. That is unfathomable. The ghost of Gus Malzahn was shaking his head at that. 

I really think the pressure has gotten to him to where he just can't think objectively anymore. It happens. Hopefully his next stop will be immediately after AU so he doesn't have time to reflect on his shortcomings and correct them and use his training at AU to beat us.

I feel like time off helped Ed Orgeron.

[saminbama 740]

36 minutes ago, ScottsboroAuburnFan said:

When we  actually try to go fast in HUNH, we run really smooth

When we hurry up after a first down, I just wish we would use something besides Johnson runing off tackle.  Maybe have 3 plays that we run in progression after each first down, so we can really catch the defense off guard.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

4 hours ago, saminbama said:

When we hurry up after a first down, I just wish we would use something besides Johnson runing off tackle.  Maybe have 3 plays that we run in progression after each first down, so we can really catch the defense off guard.

Especially when he just run for twenty plus yards. He is trying to catch his wind. Why not use an end around the next play. Especially if Their defense is winded. You want speed then not muscle. Just my thought

[BigWhiskey91 632]

15 minutes ago, saminbama said:

When we hurry up after a first down, I just wish we would use something besides Johnson runing off tackle.  Maybe have 3 plays that we run in progression after each first down, so we can really catch the defense off guard.

To his credit, we did have Stidham pull the ball for a TD on the first down in the redzone. The lineman’s laying on the ground combined with our OL pushing back DL over 10yds was hilarious too.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

1 minute ago, FullBloodedTiger91 said:

To his credit, we did have Stidham pull the ball for a TD on the first down in the redzone. The lineman’s laying on the ground combined with our OL pushing back DL over 10yds was hilarious too.

Arkansas only having 9 men on the field helped the most ?. That’s why the player was laying on the ground. He should have called time out. I think that was a good move by Stidham.

[Timeslider 6 269]

I don't think the theory is all that wrong, its just that Gus is too daggum stubborn to manage a team that needs to be flexible and adaptive. That's my biggest problem with Gus is he is just too stubborn. The next coach must be able to adapt and improvise on the move. In today's SEC it is critical in order to win on a regular Saturday in the fall. Anything else is fixable, but stubbornness is something Gus is going to have to fix himself. It might be easier to just start over with a coach that understands that. I am not suggesting this guy but, Lane Kiffin seems to understand the need to be adaptive. 

[Farmer Brown 2,391]

Malzahn's philosphy of HUNH has evolved to a slower pace to rest the defense, in my opinion. There are many times during Chizik's tenure that the defense was right back on the field after a quick three and out. I heard Coach Dye say that saving just 10 snaps for a defensive player by substitution, makes a lot of difference in the 4th quarter. I think the slower pace is to benefit the defense. We not only wore the oppositions defense out, we also did it to our own defense.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

2 hours ago, auburnatl1 said:

Net, net for Gus to be effective, does he need to believe he can’t trust his defense?

After the LSU game Gus was asked about the gameplan and basically admitted that as a staff they based their play calling on how many points LSU could realistically score on our defense. The problem is that they did not account for the punt return touchdown. There are always variables to college games. Fumbles, special teams plays... You have to be aggressive until the final whistle, or until there are only a few minutes left with a large lead and you are just trying to end the game (like Ark, Mizzou, Ole miss and MSU).

Good teams will always find a way. 

[alexava 6,973]

41 minutes ago, Farmer Brown said:

Malzahn's philosphy of HUNH has evolved to a slower pace to rest the defense, in my opinion. There are many times during Chizik's tenure that the defense was right back on the field after a quick three and out. I heard Coach Dye say that saving just 10 snaps for a defensive player by substitution, makes a lot of difference in the 4th quarter. I think the slower pace is to benefit the defense. We not only wore the oppositions defense out, we also did it to our own defense.

We actually debunked this theory. 

[corchjay 5,311]

You can't coach scared of losing.  You can't coach with the PTB telling you how to run your offense/defense.  

Gus' biggest issue for me has always been game management and time management.  Chizik was a master at both of those.  However Gus is 10x the coach Chizik was overall.  If Gus has better game management and time management he would be a heck of a coach.  

Take for instance this year.  Instead of sticking to the game plan after Clemson scored to take the lead he panics and starts throwing bombs and giving up sacks basically eliminating our run game and time of possession we were dominating at the time.  LSU sitting on a lead, running basic run plays and taking shots down field to try to hit that knockout homerun when all we need was to control the football and kick a couple field goals.  

[caleb1633 1,418]

I think 2015 is what changed Gus. Jeremy Johnson made him risk averse and paranoid about turnovers. I really hope we see against TAMU, UGA, and Bama what we saw against Arky and MSU. I think Gus could be a great HC if he can call all the games in such a manner. He has great potential and it would be a shame to get rid of him when he has such a high ceiling.

[Gowebb11 9,314]

Schemes and philosophies come and go and coaches should not be married to them. . Long tenured successful coaches in any sport become great leaders. Great leaders adapt to the changing times. Dye went from the wishbone to the Power I to an almost pro-style attack while at AU. Saban went from three and a cloud of dust to a running QB. Gus struggles with change but hopefully will continue to grow. (Quickly)

[DAG 33,977]

3 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Schemes and philosophies come and go and coaches should not be married to them. . Long tenured successful coaches in any sport become great leaders. Great leaders adapt to the changing times. Dye went from the wishbone to the Power I to an almost pro-style attack while at AU. Saban went from three and a cloud of dust to a running QB. Gus struggles with change but hopefully will continue to grow. (Quickly)

This . It is change. Plain and simple. Part of it also is he is not nearly as innovative as we like to believe . He came up with a new concept early on in his career, but when defensive coaches picked up on it, he didn’t know how to evolve. This is when you seek help , which he refuses to do. 

[alexava 6,973]

45 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Schemes and philosophies come and go and coaches should not be married to them. . Long tenured successful coaches in any sport become great leaders. Great leaders adapt to the changing times. Dye went from the wishbone to the Power I to an almost pro-style attack while at AU. Saban went from three and a cloud of dust to a running QB. Gus struggles with change but hopefully will continue to grow. (Quickly)

Gus has changed a lot.

[Gowebb11 9,314]

33 minutes ago, alexava said:

Gus has changed a lot.

Maybe, but the way he loses games he shouldn't hasn't. (Running 17 straight times on first down, not using the tight end, not working the middle of the field in passing games, etc...) He is struggling mightily to give up coordinator and play calling  duties for head coaching duties. He has the skill set to become a great coach and I hope he does. But he needs to evolve faster. 

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

2 hours ago, alexava said:

We actually debunked this theory. 

Absolutely. The actual reason for the HUNH is #1 it keeps the defense from substituting. If you look back it has become the thing to use Your bigger players for the first two downs to force a third down and long then the defense would substitute the passing defense in. If they got a first then they substituted there run defense back in. So the HUNH prevents coaches from running package defenses in and out. Now it does cause the defenses to get tired but in truth it should not be any more tired than the offense if both teams are equally conditioned. #2 it allows more time once the offense gets to the line for the OC to change the play based on the defense set up. I think to many folks get the HUNH mixed up with OCs using a bunch of motion and slight of hand movement. Two totally different things that can be run together or indivually.

[aubaseball 2,595]

What changed the HUNH was the substitution rule.   It should never have been changed and it made defenses get a better chance to stop the offense.   

The problem I have with The play calling is it seems everyone knows that we don’t throw to a tight end or that after a made first down it’s usually a run up the middle.  “Everyone” but our coaches.