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Climate change has intensified hurricane rainfall, and now we know how much


homersapien

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Just to throw more wood on the fire...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/2558

Not all data agrees, but NOAA makes some conclusions here, as I am sure many others do.

"

Paleoclimatic Data for the Last 2,000 Years

 

Beginning in the 1970s, paleoclimatologists began constructing a blueprint of how Earth's temperature changed over the centuries before the widespread use of thermometers. Over the last two decades, there has been a major breakthrough in our understanding of global temperature change over the last 2,000 years. Several different but important studies, published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, revolutionized what we know about the present day in the context of past centuries. The research of the late 1990s formed the foundation for a progression of studies that followed, incorporating advances in statistical techniques and information from a broad range of proxy data types.

Although there are differences between individual proxy temperature records, due in part to the diverse statistical methods utilized and sources of the proxy data, they all indicate similar patterns of temperature variability over the last 2,000 years. For example, it has become apparent that the "Medieval Climate Anomaly” temperatures from about 950 to 1250 AD were mostly warmer averaged over the Northern Hemisphere than during the subsequent "Little Ice Age” from roughly 1450 to 1850 AD. The timing and spatial structure of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age are regionally complex, however. One region where these temperature variations played an important role in human history is the North Atlantic, where warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly allowed Norse seafaring and colonization of Greenland that began at the end of the 10th century and continued until cooler Little Ice Age conditions developed in the 15th century.

The similarity of characteristics among the different paleoclimate reconstructions of the last 2,000 years provides confidence in the following important conclusions, as reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report(link is external):

  • Dramatic warming has occurred since the 19th century.
  • For average annual Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the period 1983–2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years and likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1,400 years.
  • Warmer than average temperatures are more widespread over the Northern Hemisphere since the mid 20th century than in any previous time."

Reconstructed-Northern-Hemisphere-annual-temperature-during-the-last-2000-years-v2.jpg

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I think it is all well and good to use natural warming trends over a 10k year period, or even 100k year period, but more relevant perspectives are gained by looking trajectories in the last 2k years.  

It's also, I think, important to include in a discussion of global climate change species extinction rates, sea habitability, aquifer levels, atmospheric toxicity levels.  Much of these, as is the current climate trends, are correlated to human activity.  

The conservatives' refusal to take action on these issues is senseless.  Development of new technologies could be economically prosperous and dissolve some of our difficult geopolitical entanglements.  Reducing pollution and improving national living spaces through more thoughtful planning would be beneficial to the health and well-being of the population.  There is a lot to gain, and, done correctly, not a lot to lose.

At the end of the day I take a "better safe than sorry" approach.  That philosophy typically resonates with conservatives.

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Some studies I saw awhile back show that methane from cow crap is a significant contributor to GW. Guess we need to eat more beef and less chicken:nanner:

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2 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

Some studies I saw awhile back show that methane from cow crap is a significant contributor to GW. Guess we need to eat more beef and less chicken:nanner:

Pro-global warming eh?  You're consistent, not the type of consistency I go for, but consistent.

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6 hours ago, johnnyAU said:

You are a CAGW cultist. Own it yourself. Nature doesn't care what you believe.

Now be sure to repent your carbon sins, and pay your carbon tithes.

Picture1.png

First I can tell you take offense at the term "denier".  While it seems appropriate to me, perhaps you would prefer something like "under informed skeptic"?

As far as my carbon sins, yes I am guilty along with every other person in our culture.  Unfortunately, repenting them means nothing.  What counts is what we do as a culture to mitigate the damage already baked-in.  I would suggest that as a first step, we start minimizing the amount of carbon in the form of CO2 we keep pumping into the atmosphere.  And yes, placing a price on emitting carbon would be a good approach.

Back to substance: 

The graph above has as it's last data point 1855, (1950 - 95) which is long before the modern global warming period began.  It also reflects regional Greenland warming and not global warming.

Bottom line, it's pretty much irrelevant to the discussion.

 

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5 hours ago, johnnyAU said:

Picture2.png

 

Not sure what this is supposed to prove, but if you look carefully, this graph shows a steady increase from about the time the modern era of global warming began.

And keep in mind this historical data is derivative from such things as tree ring growth.  It cannot reflect what is happening now and has no predictive value in a world that has been rapidly accumulating greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution.

 

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1 hour ago, HVAU said:

Pro-global warming eh?  You're consistent, not the type of consistency I go for, but consistent.

Me pro-GW? I'm for doing everything reasonable to prevent it but I'm not a GW cult member.

You should go talk to Dr. Christy at UAH sometime.

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6 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

Me pro-GW? I'm for doing everything reasonable to prevent it but I'm not a GW cult member.

You should go talk to Dr. Christy at UAH sometime.

Maybe I misinterpreted the wording from your post.  It reads strangely as greater beef consumption would require greater beef production adding more cattle and more methane and more global warming.

 

I'm not familiar with Dr. Christy.  I can certainly ask around though.  I think the staff I know are primarily in the business, music and history departments.

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6 hours ago, johnnyAU said:

 

Picture3.png

 

This one is easy to address - it's an outdated argument. 

The graph does not reflect the corrections related to the decaying orbit of sensing satellites:

"After correcting for problems caused by the decaying orbit of satellites, as well as other factors, they have produced a new record showing 36% faster warming since 1979 and nearly 140% faster (i.e. 2.4 times larger) warming since 1998. This is in comparison to the previous version 3 of the lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) data published in 2009."

image.png

 

I should also point out that 1998 represented a warming spike and the choice of that date as a an arbitrary beginning point is a classic case of "cherry picking", which is an important point in understanding the trend.

 

And more (fairly) recent observations concerning RRS data:

Climate Deniers’ Favorite Temperature Dataset Just Confirmed Global Warming

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15 minutes ago, HVAU said:

Maybe I misinterpreted the wording from your post.  It reads strangely as greater beef consumption would require greater beef production adding more cattle and more methane and more global warming.

 

I'm not familiar with Dr. Christy.  I can certainly ask around though.  I think the staff I know are primarily in the business, music and history departments.

This guy...https://www.uah.edu/science/departments/atmospheric-science/faculty-staff/dr-john-christy

 

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27 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

Me pro-GW? I'm for doing everything reasonable to prevent it but I'm not a GW cult member.

You should go talk to Dr. Christy at UAH sometime.

:slapfh:  So predictable.

I knew we would be able to keep him and Spencer out of the discussion. ;D

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The fact that you try and demonize both Christy and Spencer is a testament to the ridiculous ideology and alarmist sites you visit, likely Desmog blog and such.  That article on Lysenko and the CAGW cult would be good reading for you if you had the stones to actually read it. 

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15 minutes ago, homersapien said:

This one is easy to address - it's an outdated argument. 

The graph does not reflect the corrections related to the decaying orbit of sensing satellites:

"After correcting for problems caused by the decaying orbit of satellites, as well as other factors, they have produced a new record showing 36% faster warming since 1979 and nearly 140% faster (i.e. 2.4 times larger) warming since 1998. This is in comparison to the previous version 3 of the lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) data published in 2009."

image.png

 

I should also point out that 1998 represented a warming spike and the choice of that date as a an arbitrary beginning point is a classic case of "cherry picking", which is an important point in understanding the trend.

 

And more (fairly) recent observations concerning RRS data:

Climate Deniers’ Favorite Temperature Dataset Just Confirmed Global Warming

For this nonsense, you get the dreaded....

godzilla-facepalm-when-godzilla-gives-you-the-facepalm-you-know-26010359.png

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20 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

Did someone say outdated data? Notice the most recent trend.

 

C'mon, even Spencer and Christy have finally admitted their earlier data were misleading.  Both allow that the earth is warming. :-\

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17 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

The fact that you try and demonize both Christy and Spencer is a testament to the ridiculous ideology and alarmist sites you visit, likely Desmog blog and such.  That article on Lysenko and the CAGW cult would be good reading for you if you had the stones to actually read it. 

He's not an impartial scientist. He operates to a personal agenda.

"Christy and Spencer have also been affiliated with various conservative fossil fuel-funded think tanks. And Spencer is on the Board of Advisors of the Cornwall Alliance – a religious group that essentially believes God wouldn’t let damaging climate change happen. Spencer has also made some controversial comments, calling those who disagree with him “global warming Nazis” as well as declaring “I love FoxNews” and saying,

I view my job a little like a legislator, supported by the taxpayer, to protect the interests of the taxpayer and to minimize the role of government.

Spencer and Christy made a valuable scientific contribution by creating their atmospheric temperature data set. However, given how few climate scientists dispute the expert consensus on human-caused global warming, it’s useful to examine their research and comments with a critical eye. When we do, it becomes clear that they have less in common with Galileo than with the scientists who disputed the links between smoking and cancer."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/apr/06/revealing-interview-with-top-contrarian-climate-scientists

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Christy is on the board of this organization. 

While it's quite possible for a scientist to have general faith in God, no true scientist could support such a position is this and work in the field.

https://cornwallalliance.org/2009/05/evangelical-declaration-on-global-warming/

WHAT WE BELIEVE

 

  1. We believe Earth and its ecosystems—created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence —are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory.  Earth’s climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history.
  2. We believe abundant, affordable energy is indispensable to human flourishing, particularly to societies which are rising out of abject poverty and the high rates of disease and premature death that accompany it. With present technologies, fossil and nuclear fuels are indispensable if energy is to be abundant and affordable.
  3. We believe mandatory reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, achievable mainly by greatly reduced use of fossil fuels, will greatly increase the price of energy and harm economies.
  4. We believe such policies will harm the poor more than others because the poor spend a higher percentage of their income on energy and desperately need economic growth to rise out of poverty and overcome its miseries.

 

WHAT WE DENY

 

  1. We deny that Earth and its ecosystems are the fragile and unstable products of chance, and particularly that Earth’s climate system is vulnerable to dangerous alteration because of minuscule changes in atmospheric chemistry. Recent warming was neither abnormally large nor abnormally rapid. There is no convincing scientific evidence that human contribution to greenhouse gases is causing dangerous global warming.
  2. We deny that alternative, renewable fuels can, with present or near-term technology, replace fossil and nuclear fuels, either wholly or in significant part, to provide the abundant, affordable energy necessary to sustain prosperous economies or overcome poverty.
  3. We deny that carbon dioxide—essential to all plant growth—is a pollutant. Reducing greenhouse gases cannot achieve significant reductions in future global temperatures, and the costs of the policies would far exceed the benefits.
  4. We deny that such policies, which amount to a regressive tax, comply with the Biblical requirement of protecting the poor from harm and oppression.
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25 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

For this nonsense, you get the dreaded....

godzilla-facepalm-when-godzilla-gives-you-the-facepalm-you-know-26010359.png

Sorry but that is not an appropriate response for this forum. No actual substance.

You made a very specific claim by posting a well known chart of data and I took my own good time to dismantle it. 

If you have a question or rebuttal fine.  But that post was nothing more than a "poo fling". It should be deleted and taken to the smack talk forum.

So what about it monitors?  Are we going to enforce the rules or not?

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1 minute ago, johnnyAU said:

LOL again...the Guardian, NY times, Skeptical Science, Desmog blog....you don't anything from Huffpost, NPR or BBC?  

 

Got anything more than criticizing the messenger? Maybe pick out something to refute because you think it's false?

  Perhaps its time for you to quit this and retire back to the smack talk forum.

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37 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

The fact that you try and demonize both Christy and Spencer is a testament to the ridiculous ideology and alarmist sites you visit, likely Desmog blog and such.  That article on Lysenko and the CAGW cult would be good reading for you if you had the stones to actually read it. 

I am simply revealing the facts about Christy and Spencer.  You just think it's demonizing.  Bet it's stuff you didn't know either, huh?

And forget the "cult" stuff.  It's no more relevant to the issue than accusations of a hoax.  

Where's those "science chops" you claim?   If you can't hang with me on a technical discussion of the facts, then just stop posting.  At least on the serious discussion forum.

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26 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I am simply revealing the facts about Christy and Spencer.  You just think it's demonizing.  Bet it's stuff you didn't know either, huh?

And forget the "cult" stuff.  It's no more relevant to the issue than accusations of a hoax.  

Where's those "science chops" you claim?   If you can't hang with me on a technical discussion of the facts, then just stop posting.  At least on the serious discussion forum.

I've read both the ridiculous profiles of Christy and Spencer from Desmog blog/Skeptical Science long ago, along with many other ridiculous profiles of any and all scientists who are skeptical of the narrative, and who are disingenously labeled "deniers" by the left. 

Quoting liberal sources like the Guardian or Huffpost, etc...in addition to those two above buys you no credibility on the subject. It's the same reason I haven't quoted from Wattsupwiththat, Notrickszone, Breitbart, etc....

If you continue to use the idiotic term "denier" I'll continue to refer to the "cult".  I again refer you to the following article....https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/04/28/the-disgraceful-episode-of-lysenkoism-brings-us-global-warming-theory/#34d87ee17ac8

 

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