Climate change has intensified hurricane rainfall, and now we know how much

[HVAU 673]

3 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Not sure if you had me in mind, but I think the data I have presented is pretty basic in terms of summarizing the big picture. 

I have descended into the weeds in responding to JohnnyAU posts concerning more "isolated" data claims such as the reputed 17 year pause indicated by satellite data - but only because he brought it up and I felt it was necessary to refute it.

I also touched on the number of major scientific organizations that have issued statements supporting the AGW theory:  https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

(These organizations are very conservative when it comes to making such statements btw.) 

For brevity's sake, I am not going to reproduce a comprehensive list of these organizations, but they can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html

 

 

 

I didn't really have you in mind, but I will say, knowing the conservative tendency to refuse any appeal to expertise as authority, you may want to establish what are the acceptable scientific entities before engaging in the more disputed areas of the debate.  This shouldn't be done as a "gotcha", but as the fundamental groundwork from which to argue.

 

[homersapien 11,396]

34 minutes ago, HVAU said:

I didn't really have you in mind, but I will say, knowing the conservative tendency to refuse any appeal to expertise as authority, you may want to establish what are the acceptable scientific entities before engaging in the more disputed areas of the debate.  This shouldn't be done as a "gotcha", but as the fundamental groundwork from which to argue.

 

All of them.  Every single respected scientific entity.  Again, there are comprehensive lists linked above.

Show me an organization that denies or seeks to discredit the science of AGW and I will show you how they are politically, economically or religiously motivated in doing so.

Maybe you are right in that I should lead with that information in these sort of discussions, but I  assumed it was a given in that it's the very basis of my position that AGW is fact.  (And it doesn't help that deniers typically jump into the weeds by citing the rare - and often erroneous - dissension papers or statements.)

 

 

[johnnyAU 3,634]

6 hours ago, HVAU said:

"we'll just wait and see

There is no "we'll just wait and see" approach. When the science isn't settled, even as believed by some, the only true arbiter will be nature itself. Nature doesn't give a @#$% about computer simulation, nor 50-100 year dire predictions based on simulations and political ideology.  We are continuing into the lowest solar activity in more than 100 years. The projections of cooling are building. The dire predictions of the alarmist community come and go. 

"However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said."

How many mythical "tipping points" have come and gone? How many more will be predicted? The polar bears seem to have rebounded nicely since Gore's first propaganda film. 

The proverbial can's been kicked down the road so many times it has become commonplace. 

The issue isn't whether or not the environment, or climate is affected by man. The question remains as to just how much, and whether or not we should attempt to invoke such drastic changes, which includes trillions of $$ over time, based on unsettled science and conjecture. It isn't going so well for places like Germany, Australia and now France who have attempted to move over to full scale renewables before the technology was ready, especially if there was a possibility that the climate would go through a cooling phase, as cold is much more dangerous than heat without a sufficient energy supply. 

The speculation that humans are causing global climatic changes cannot be proven experimentally, no matter how many claims to the contrary are made and "peer reviewed".  Believers will believe, and all others will be demonized. Such is religion. 

The only chance the two sides have in ever coming to agreement is what will happen, not 50 or 100+ years from now ("your children and grand children"), but in the next 5-20 years. The projections clearly diverge over that time span. 

 

[autigeremt 6,654]

From someone who works in a field that’s built on the Clean Water Act, RCRA and the effects of climate change.....I believe the horse has left the barn. We need to adapt, do much better in the area of sustainability and prepare for an ever changing planet. 

[homersapien 11,396]

14 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

From someone who works in a field that’s built on the Clean Water Act, RCRA and the effects of climate change.....I believe the horse has left the barn. We need to adapt, do much better in the area of sustainability and prepare for an ever changing planet. 

True. 

But that doesn't mean that we cannot reduce the ultimate potential levels of warming - or pollution - by acting sooner rather than later.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

On 11/21/2018 at 5:16 AM, homersapien said:

I have always responded to questions regarding the point I am making.  Show me otherwise.

What other thread are you talking about anyway?  Can you please quote what you are referring to?

No, you haven't. 

The thread with all of your bullet points about Trump. We requested evidence for each and you weaseled. 

[autigeremt 6,654]

19 hours ago, homersapien said:

True. 

But that doesn't mean that we cannot reduce the ultimate potential levels of warming - or pollution - by acting sooner rather than later.

Never said that. Warming will continue in some areas regardless of what we do but we will expedite it if we don’t adapt our ways of doing things. 

[homersapien 11,396]

8 hours ago, NolaAuTiger said:

No, you haven't. 

The thread with all of your bullet points about Trump. We requested evidence for each and you weaseled. 

Those are all true and you know it. No proof required, kid.

[homersapien 11,396]

5 hours ago, autigeremt said:

Never said that. Warming will continue in some areas regardless of what we do but we will expedite it if we don’t adapt our ways of doing things. 

Well, I know you didn't say that exactly, I did.  

But I am not seeing a distinction between what I said and your above post..  Perhaps you can explain.

 

[homersapien 11,396]

More Fake News:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html

Climate change will shrink US economy and kill thousands, government report warns

A new US government report delivers a dire warning about climate change and its devastating impacts, saying the economy could lose hundreds of billions of dollars -- or, in the worst-case scenario, more than 10% of its GDP -- by the end of the century.

The federally mandated study was supposed to come out in December but was released by the Trump administration on Friday, at a time when many Americans are on a long holiday weekend, distracted by family and shopping.

 

David Easterling, director of the Technical Support Unit at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, emphasized that there was "no external interference in the report's development." He added that the climate change the Earth is experiencing is unlike any other.

"The global average temperature is much higher and is rising more rapidly than anything modern civilization has experienced, and this warming trend can only be explained by human activities," Easterling said.

Coming from the US Global Change Research Program, a team of 13 federal agencies, the Fourth National Climate Assessment was put together with the help of 1,000 people, including 300 leading scientists, roughly half from outside the government.

 

It's the second of two volumes. The first, released in November 2017, concluded that there is "no convincing alternative explanation" for the changing climate other than "human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases."

 

Dimming the sun: The answer to global warming?

The report's findings run counter to President Donald Trump's consistent message that climate change is a hoax.

 

On Wednesday, Trump tweeted, "Whatever happened to Global Warming?" as some Americans faced the coldest Thanksgiving in over a century.

 

But the science explained in these and other federal government reports is clear: Climate change is not disproved by the extreme weather of one day or a week; it's demonstrated by long-term trends. Humans are living with the warmest temperatures in modern history. Even if the best-case scenario were to happen and greenhouse gas emissions were to drop to nothing, the world is on track to warm 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

As of now, not a single G20 country is meeting climate targets, research shows.

 

Without significant reductions in greenhouse emissions, the annual average global temperature could increase 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 Celsius) or more by the end of this century, compared with preindustrial temperatures, the report says.

The expense

The costs of climate change could reach hundreds of billions of dollars annually, according to the report. The Southeast alone will probably lose over a half a billion labor hours by 2100 due to extreme heat.

 

Farmers will face extremely tough times. The quality and quantity of their crops will decline across the country due to higher temperatures, drought and flooding. In parts of the Midwest, farms will be able to produce less than 75% of the corn they produce today, and the southern part of the region could lose more than 25% of its soybean yield.

 

Heat stress could cause average dairy production to fall between 0.60% and 1.35% over the next 12 years -- having already cost the industry $1.2 billion from heat stress in 2010.

 

The health hazards from wildfires can linger

When it comes to shellfish there will be a $230 million loss by the end of the century due to ocean acidification, which is already killing off shellfish and corals. Red tides, or algae bloom that deplete oxygen in the water and can kill sea life -- like those that triggered a state of emergency in Florida in August -- will become more frequent.

Impacts on our health

Higher temperatures will also kill more people, the report says. The Midwest alone, which is predicted to have the largest increase in extreme temperature, will see an additional 2,000 premature deaths per year by 2090.

 

There will be more mosquito- and tickborne diseases like Zika, dengue and chikungunya. West Nile cases are expected to more than double by 2050 due to increasing temperatures.

 

3 things businesses can do to win the climate change fight

 

Expect asthma and allergies to be worse due to climate change.

 

No one's health is immune from climate change, the report concludes. People will be exposed to more foodborne and waterborne diseases. Particularly vulnerable to higher temperatures in the summer, children, the elderly, the poor and communities of color will be at a much greater risk for illness and death.

Heat and flooding

Wildfire seasons -- already longer and more destructive than before -- could burn up to six times more forest area annually by 2050 in parts of the United States. Burned areas in Southwestern California alone could double by 2050.

 

Dependable and safe water for the Hawaii, the Caribbean and others are threatened by these rising temperatures.

 

How climate change will affect your health

Along the US coasts, public infrastructure and $1 trillion in national wealth held in real estate are threatened by rising sea levels, flooding and storm surges.

 

Energy systems will be taxed, meaning more blackouts and power failures, and the potential loss in some sectors could reach hundreds of billions of dollars per year by the end of the century, the report said.

 

The number of days over 100 degrees Fahrenheit will multiply; Chicago, where these days are rare, could start to resemble Phoenix or Las Vegas, with up to two months worth of these scorching-hot days.

 

Sea levels have already gone up 7 to 8 inches since 1900. Almost half that rise has been since 1993, a rate of rise greater than during any century in the past 2,800 years. Some countries are already seeing land underwater.

 

By midcentury, it's likely that the Arctic will lose all sea ice in late summer, and that could lead to more permafrost thaw, according to the report. As the permafrost thaws, more carbon dioxide and methane would be released, amplifying human-induced warming, "possibly significantly."

What can be done

The report was created to inform policy-makers and makes no specific recommendations on how to remedy the problem. However, it suggests that if the United States immediately reduced its fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, it could save thousands of lives and generate billions of dollars in benefits for the country.

 

As global temperatures rise, so will mental health issues, study says

 

The Defense Department is trying to understand what risk climate change poses to security. But the Trump administration has signaled that the country will pull out of international initiatives like the Paris climate accord, aimed at lowering global temperatures, claiming that these treaties have been unfair for the US economy.

 

A report from the UN in October urged all governments to take "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society" to avoid disaster from climate change. That report predicted that the Earth will reach the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by as early as 2030. It also suggested the world faces a risk of extreme drought, wildfires, floods and food shortages for hundreds of millions of people.

Time for action

Reactions to the new report have been strong across the scientific community.

 

"If we're going to run this country like a business, it's time to address climate as the threat multiplier we know it is before more lives are lost," said Robert Bullard, an environmental scientist at Texas Southern University.

 

"In Houston, communities of color have endured back to back major weather events without the acknowledgment from Washington that climate change is the cause. We've known for years that it's true and it's important to our organizing and our local policy efforts that information like this is not only considered, but believed and acted upon."

Scientists who have been raising the alarm about the negative consequences of climate change for years welcomed the findings.

"The findings in the Trump administration's NCA report show how the health and daily lives of Americans are becoming more and more interrupted because of climate change," said Beverly Wright, founding director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice and a professor at Dillard University. "We challenge the administration to finally begin using this information to rebuild and strengthen the communities in the direct path of the atrocities wrought by the fossil fuel industry and decades of poor policies that have neglected our concerns. The science is undeniable, let's fix it."

 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

16 hours ago, homersapien said:

Those are all true and you know it. No proof required, kid.

Lol. I love you Homer

[homersapien 11,396]

17 minutes ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Lol. I love you Homer

If you love New Orleans, I suggest you better start taking the threat of AGW seriously.

[homersapien 11,396]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/climate-may-force-millions-to-move-and-u-s-isn-t-ready-report

Climate May Force Millions to Move and U.S. Isn't Ready, Report Finds

Global warming may push millions of Americans away from the coast, and the U.S. isn’t prepared for the consequences of such a mass migration, scientists from across the federal government warned on Friday.

“Sea level rise might reshape the U.S. population distribution,” the scientists wrote in a sweeping report on climate change. “The potential need for millions of people and billions of dollars of coastal infrastructure to be relocated in the future creates challenging legal, financial, and equity issues that have not yet been addressed.”

The warning comes in the latest edition of the National Climate Assessment, a compendium of research about the state of climate change released every four years by scientists and other experts from across federal agencies. The assessment finds that climate change continues to outpace efforts to combat it or to adapt to its effects........

 

[AUwent 3,756]

45 minutes ago, homersapien said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/climate-may-force-millions-to-move-and-u-s-isn-t-ready-report

Climate May Force Millions to Move and U.S. Isn't Ready, Report Finds

Global warming may push millions of Americans away from the coast, and the U.S. isn’t prepared for the consequences of such a mass migration, scientists from across the federal government warned on Friday.

“Sea level rise might reshape the U.S. population distribution,” the scientists wrote in a sweeping report on climate change. “The potential need for millions of people and billions of dollars of coastal infrastructure to be relocated in the future creates challenging legal, financial, and equity issues that have not yet been addressed.”

The warning comes in the latest edition of the National Climate Assessment, a compendium of research about the state of climate change released every four years by scientists and other experts from across federal agencies. The assessment finds that climate change continues to outpace efforts to combat it or to adapt to its effects........

 

Blah blah blah blah blah! I'm not liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiisteniiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnng!!!!!!!! FAKE NEEEEEEEWWWWWWWWSSSSSSSSS!

It's all just a buncha KOMYOONIZT PROPUHGUNDUH!

[SaltyTiger 7,825]

41 minutes ago, homersapien said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/climate-may-force-millions-to-move-and-u-s-isn-t-ready-report

Climate May Force Millions to Move and U.S. Isn't Ready, Report Finds

Global warming may push millions of Americans away from the coast, and the U.S. isn’t prepared for the consequences of such a mass migration, scientists from across the federal government warned on Friday.

“Sea level rise might reshape the U.S. population distribution,” the scientists wrote in a sweeping report on climate change. “The potential need for millions of people and billions of dollars of coastal infrastructure to be relocated in the future creates challenging legal, financial, and equity issues that have not yet been addressed.”

The warning comes in the latest edition of the National Climate Assessment, a compendium of research about the state of climate change released every four years by scientists and other experts from across federal agencies. The assessment finds that climate change continues to outpace efforts to combat it or to adapt to its effects........

 

“Coastal states such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York are anticipated to see large outflows of migrants, a pattern that would stress regional locations further inland,” the authors write.

Why is the sea level not rising along the Florida Gulf Coast?

[homersapien 11,396]

13 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

“Coastal states such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York are anticipated to see large outflows of migrants, a pattern that would stress regional locations further inland,” the authors write.

Why is the sea level not rising along the Florida Gulf Coast?

Who said it's not?

https://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-sea-level-rise-global-warming.html

https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2018/01/18/scientists-fort-myers-naples-par-global-sea-level-rise/1043559001/

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/

 

[SaltyTiger 7,825]

10 hours ago, homersapien said:

Who said it's not?

I just haven't noticed it. Thanks for the  articles. Have not witnessed people with more allergy problems unless Red Tide is a source.

I am still concerned with run off much more than AGW.

[augolf1716 21,231]

zzzzzzzzzzz

[homersapien 11,396]

14 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

I just haven't noticed it. Thanks for the  articles. Have not witnessed people with more allergy problems unless Red Tide is a source.

I am still concerned with run off much more than AGW.

That's undoubtedly because of the immediate impact on you. 

While run off is the more immediate issue regarding this problem, global warming has an impact by making it worse.  It's analogous to storm and drought severity. It's another symptom.

https://qz.com/1365496/floridas-red-tide-shows-that-climate-change-isnt-just-dangerous-its-ugly/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/14/how-climate-change-is-making-red-tide-algal-blooms-even-worse/?utm_term=.cb1f07fa3ea4

[homersapien 11,396]

Btw, the current (2013) rate of sea level rise is only 3.2 mm/yr which doesn't seem like all that much, but the rate is increasing. 

[SaltyTiger 7,825]

7 hours ago, homersapien said:

Btw, the current (2013) rate of sea level rise is only 3.2 mm/yr which doesn't seem like all that much, but the rate is increasing. 

Does it rise in the bays and sounds? 

[homersapien 11,396]

Trump dismisses the economic impact of climate change — except at his golf course

“I don’t believe it,” Trump says, but his business dealings indicate otherwise.

......President Donald Trump said he doesn’t buy his own government’s National Climate Assessment detailing the devastating impact climate change will have on the American economy during a Q&A session with reporters on Monday.

“I don’t believe it,” Trump said. “No, no, I don’t believe it. And here’s the other thing: You’re going to have China, and Japan, and all of Asia, and all of these other countries — you know, it addresses our county. Right now we’re at the cleanest we’ve ever been, and that’s very important to me. But if we’re clean but every other place is dirty, that’s not so good.”.......

But Trump has taken a very different attitude when it comes to the business he owns.

As Politico detailed during the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump International Golf Links sought to build a seawall to protect a golf course he owns in Ireland from “global warming and its effects.”

In a permit application for the wall, Trump International Golf Links cited scientific studies indicating that a rise in sea level could result in damaging erosion in a bay near the golf course.

“If the predictions of an increase in sea level rise as a result of global warming prove correct ... it is likely that there will be a corresponding increase in coastal erosion rates not just in Doughmore Bay but around much of the coastline of Ireland,” the application says. “In our view, it could reasonably be expected that the rate of sea level rise might become twice of that presently occurring. ... As a result, we would expect the rate of dune recession to increase.”

As Politico details, Trump’s company even tried to raise awareness about the impacts of climate change in a brochure distributed to people living in the area around the course.......

Hey, as long as his golf course is protected, **** American and the rest of the world!

And in the same article:

In his comments on Monday, Trump didn’t dispute the assessment’s findings, but instead suggested there’s nothing America can do about climate change because other nations, like China and Japan, will continue to be “dirty.”

Trump’s suggestion is based on a false premise, however. The Environmental Performance Index currently has the US ranked 27th in the world — seven spots behind Japan.

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/27/18114338/trump-climate-change-assessment-golf-course-ireland

 

[SaltyTiger 7,825]

7 hours ago, homersapien said:

Trump dismisses the economic impact of climate change — except at his golf course

Can you discuss anything without President Trump clogging your old mind?

Good grief Brother Homer. This is the serious board. 

[jj3jordan 2,056]

No he can’t.

[homersapien 11,396]

11 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

Can you discuss anything without President Trump clogging your old mind?

Good grief Brother Homer. This is the serious board. 

Trump said he "didn't believe" the climate report. At the same time, he files a construction application citing climate change as justification.  You really don't see the irony? 

And how is this not relevant to a discussion concerning accepting the reality of AGW?

Perhaps it is you who has the "clogged old mind".