State of the race, mid September

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, homersapien said:

And that's paid (indirectly) by us all.

This is what drives me nuts. People are so hung up on not letting their tax dollars go to the aid of their fellow citizens that they'd rather pay far more in other ways, as long as their only spending it on themselves. Like all these places where everyone above a certain income level sends their kids to private school so that they don't have to fund better public education. Insanity. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

WSJ Final Swing State Polls Find No Late Shift in Race

WASHINGTON—Support for President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.

The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week...

...In the 2016 election, many pollsters missed the 11th-hour shift among undecided voters toward Mr. Trump, a trend that helped him win the election. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that about 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania decided on their candidate in the week before the last election. Those voters supported Mr. Trump by nearly 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the group found.

With the election one day away, the number of undecided voters in swing states in this election cycle is small. Just 1% of voters in the new poll said they were not sure for whom they would vote.

And most voters’ opinions are set in stone. Only 1% of Trump supporters and 1% of Biden supporters in the swing states said there was a fair chance they would change their minds and support the other candidate, a rock-bottom figure that echoes previous polls...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/swing-state-poll-finds-no-late-shift-in-presidential-race-11604329351

[Leftfield 2,617]

23 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Well, I suppose that's a libertarian perspective, but I think it's more accurate to say everyone will have access to some minimal level of healthcare insurance which is paid by us all.  It provides for the most efficient way to manage cost - as many other countries demonstrate on a daily basis.

Don't forget, most - if not all - uninsured people get care now. Only it's often the most expensive care since they avoid preventative care and go to the ER when problems become critical.  And that's paid (indirectly) by us all.

 

And as I stated, I'm not outright against the idea, largely because of the reasons you state. I'm for whatever provides the best solution, but there are certain lines you can't cross if you are to be a free society. 

We're going to be arguing in circles here, which was not my intent. My only point was to disagree that health care is a right, not to start a debate on the best health care plan, and I did not appreciate my stance being compared to an opposition of freeing slaves or women's suffrage (I know you didn't do that). 

[homersapien 11,395]

13 minutes ago, Leftfield said:

And as I stated, I'm not outright against the idea, largely because of the reasons you state. I'm for whatever provides the best solution, but there are certain lines you can't cross if you are to be a free society. 

We're going to be arguing in circles here, which was not my intent. My only point was to disagree that health care is a right, not to start a debate on the best health care plan, and I did not appreciate my stance being compared to an opposition of freeing slaves or women's suffrage (I know you didn't do that). 

Well, as I pointed out, healthcare as a (human) right has pretty much been decided by this country. 

Of course, you have a personal right to oppose providing healthcare to everyone - including those who cannot afford it.  But I  - as apparently the rest of our society - would consider that to be immoral.

It seems like an extreme version of "libertarianism" to me, which is the problem I always have with libertarians.  They don't seem to recognize we are all an inherently social species, like it or not. 

 

 

 

[AUDub 11,158]

This is an interesting tool. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 hour ago, Leftfield said:

I did not appreciate my stance being compared to an opposition of freeing slaves or women's suffrage (I know you didn't do that). 

Who did do that? Certainly wasn't me. 

All I said was that calling potential changes "slippery slopes" is an argument that has been used against every substantive change ever. 

If you misinterpreted it that way, then I can see why you were so upset.

[AUDub 11,158]

One of the plaintiffs, by the way. 

 

[AUDub 11,158]

Waiting on Judge Hanen's ruling now. Said he would issue a ruling after a 20 minute recess. That was 45 minutes ago. 

General consensus seems to be that he'll keep the ballots but enjoin the county on the drive through voting.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

2 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Waiting on Judge Hanen's ruling now. Said he would issue a ruling after a 20 minute recess. That was 45 minutes ago. 

General consensus seems to be that he'll keep the ballots but enjoin the county on the drive through voting.

Well, that seems better than throwing them out. Splitting the baby so to speak.

[AUDub 11,158]

No standing. Incredible. He got it 100% right. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

2 minutes ago, AUDub said:

No standing. Incredible. He got it 100% right. 

So do they appeal to a higher court now?

[AUDub 11,158]

Going into detail now that he would have denied the injunction on the votes that have already taken place even had the plaintiff had standing. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

Sounds like it's going to the 5th Circuit in NOLA next.

[AUDub 11,158]

6 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

So do they appeal to a higher court now?

There will be a pending appeal in the 5th circuit but the idea of it being overturned is laughably remote. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

Just now, AUDub said:

There will be a pending appeal in the 5th circuit but the idea of it being overturned is laughably remote. 

My prediction is that the 5th rules the same way for the same reasons.  It eventually gets to the SCOTUS where it also gets rejected (probably not even heard - just denied without comment).  A Trump tweetstorm then commences.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Monster ruling for fairness though.  Pleasantly surprised.

[AUDub 11,158]

Just now, TitanTiger said:

My prediction is that the 5th rules the same way for the same reasons.  It eventually gets to the SCOTUS where it also gets rejected (probably not even heard - just denied without comment).  A Trump tweetstorm then commences.

Yeah. I expect the 5th to summarily dismiss. I mean you have the Texas Secretary of State (a republican), the Texas Supreme Court (all republicans) and one of the most conservative federal judges in the country rejecting this silliness unanimously.

[AUDub 11,158]

53 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Going into detail now that he would have denied the injunction on the votes that have already taken place even had the plaintiff had standing. 

He, however did not rule out the idea that voting curbside on election day may be out the window. There's actually legal justification for that so I get it. 

He did this for a reason, by the way. The 5th circuit or SCOTUS may grant standing, in which case he's telling us how he would rule should the case get back to him. 

As it stands, I still think the higher courts will agree with him and dismiss.

[AUDub 11,158]

Defense should have that on tape and ready to play in front of the court at the drop of a hat. 

[Leftfield 2,617]

3 hours ago, homersapien said:

Well, as I pointed out, healthcare as a (human) right has pretty much been decided by this country. 

Of course, you have a personal right to oppose providing healthcare to everyone - including those who cannot afford it.  But I  - as apparently the rest of our society - would consider that to be immoral.

It seems like an extreme version of "libertarianism" to me, which is the problem I always have with libertarians.  They don't seem to recognize we are all an inherently social species, like it or not. 

Not sure if you're specifically referring to me with the opening of your second paragraph, but if so, I did not say I absolutely opposed a system that would provide health care for all. Again, I am against calling it a right, specifically at the federal level. To infringe on a right codified in the Constitution (free speech, religion, etc.) requires action. For health care, if it were a right, to infringe upon it would require inaction. That's a significant difference.

 

[AUDub 11,158]

8 hours ago, AUDub said:

Yeah. I expect the 5th to summarily dismiss. I mean you have the Texas Secretary of State (a republican), the Texas Supreme Court (all republicans) and one of the most conservative federal judges in the country rejecting this silliness unanimously.

And that has now happened. 5th circuit denied the request for injunctive relief. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

6 hours ago, AUDub said:

And that has now happened. 5th circuit denied the request for injunctive relief. 

I can't find this anywhere.  Do you have a link?

[McLoofus 35,182]

TIL that China sent a covid balloon up into the stratosphere and it has been raining covid on us all this time. And you all immediately know who that guy voted for.

Got there an hour before the doors opened and was out of there 20 minutes after.  Grateful for an uneventful event.

May sanity and decency prevail across our country today.

[AUDub 11,158]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

I can't find this anywhere.  Do you have a link?

 

[AUDub 11,158]

Nate Cohn makes some valid points about the RCP average this year.  Thread: