Auburn/Tennessee Metrics in Year 2 Under New HC

[Mikey 16,770]

13 hours ago, ThurstontheWelshCorgi said:

I like you Mikey but im going to go ahead and say

 

Horse sh*t

 

They made a great hire

Time will tell. Maybe bookmark this thread and we'll re-visit in two or three years. Remember a guy named Chizik? He looked like a great hire after year two. Fired after year four.

[ThurstontheWelshCorgi 576]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Time will tell. Maybe bookmark this thread and we'll re-visit in two or three years. Remember a guy named Chizik? He looked like a great hire after year two. Fired after year four.

Chizik was only good because of Malzahn and Newton.

Heupel is entirely different.

fine w bookmarking but ive seen enough already for me 

[Mikey 16,770]

9 minutes ago, ThurstontheWelshCorgi said:

Chizik was only good because of Malzahn and Newton.

Heupel is entirely different.

fine w bookmarking but ive seen enough already for me 

And by that same token.....Heupel may only be good because of Hooker. We'll see in time.

[metafour 4,969]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

And by that same token.....Heupel may only be good because of Hooker. We'll see in time.

He may only be good because of a QB who only managed to throw for 9 TD's and 5 INT's and couldn't even secure the starting job at Virginia Tech? 

How about you give the damn man his dues for developing that QB? He wasn't throwing for 40+ TD's a year before he got there. The absolute success of NUMEROUS QB's under him should give you a hint that he didn't just find magic under a rock by accident.

Also, just watch their offense my man. They have receivers running wide open all over the field. Against everyone. His scheming and play-calling are elite; THAT is why Hendon Hooker can do what he's doing.

[RunInRed 16,505]

On 10/13/2022 at 11:24 AM, metafour said:

Josh Heupel is a proven offensive genius. Going back to his time at UCF, his teams are in the Top 10 or higher in basically every offensive metric every single year. Look it up. It's actually mind-blowing how consistently elite his offense is.

 

Just for fun, how would you compare him to someone like Hugh Freeze?

[Mikey 16,770]

6 minutes ago, metafour said:

He may only be good because of a QB who only managed to throw for 9 TD's and 5 INT's and couldn't even secure the starting job at Virginia Tech? 

How about you give the damn man his dues for developing that QB? He wasn't throwing for 40+ TD's a year before he got there. The absolute success of NUMEROUS QB's under him should give you a hint that he didn't just find magic under a rock by accident.

Also, just watch their offense my man. They have receivers running wide open all over the field. Against everyone. His scheming and play-calling are elite; THAT is why Hendon Hooker can do what he's doing.

I've already posted Heupel's downward won/loss trajectory at UCF for you. Let's see where he is in three or four years instead of declaring him an all-time genius right now. Yards and play calling are interesting things to talk about but the bottom line is wins and losses. Will he sink at UT like he did at UCF? We won't know for a while.

[Auburnguy101 325]

31 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

Just for fun, how would you compare him to someone like Hugh Freeze?

Freeze is so overrated. He beat UAT twice and that is literally the reason so many Auburn fans want him. His offensive prowess scored a whopping 21 points against attorneys at law Gardner Webb yesterday. He is not even as good as Gus, who I am glad is gone. He had and continues to have some bad losses. There’s literally nothing special about him. I’ve never seen a fan base slop over one guy who has not won anything in his life. And let’s not even talk about his off the field stuff. He’s a lowlife POS scumbag who I hope Auburn never allows on campus…

Edited October 16, 2022 by Auburnguy101

[Auburnguy101 325]

Another thing, you cannot call yourself an Auburn fan and want some POS like Freeze. I’m not really worried though, because Dr. Roberts will never sign off on Freeze. There would be such a huge backlash from a large portion of the fan base, just like Schiano at UT. Auburn needs someone who would unite the fan base and Freeze would just make the fan base more divided. Sorry, can people stop hoping he gets the job? Never seen so many people clamor for such a mediocre lowlife POS coach…

[metafour 4,969]

2 hours ago, RunInRed said:

Just for fun, how would you compare him to someone like Hugh Freeze?

 

Heupel is quite clearly a better offensive mind/scheme guy than Freeze in my opinion. I mean I think Freeze is pretty good (maybe a bit stale, I don't see anything revolutionary there since his product at Ole Miss) but Heupel to me has proven to be in the category of: Ryan Day, Lane Kiffin, Lincoln Riley.

[metafour 4,969]

1 hour ago, Auburnguy101 said:

His offensive prowess scored a whopping 21 points against attorneys at law Gardner Webb yesterday. He is not even as good as Gus, who I am glad is gone.

 

This is very silly and wrong. He's playing with a 3rd string QB, dude. This is Liberty - you saw how different Alabama's offense looked with Bryce Young out, and their backup is actually another former Top 100 recruit. Liberty doesn't have 3-4 QB's on their roster all of whom are ready to throw up 40+ points even against Gardner Webb. They are 6-1 with two of their QB's being injured. Their starter got hurt on like the first drive of the game and hasn't played since. He is actually expected to be back pretty soon. Again, Alabama with their QB out scored 24 against A&M and almost lost the game.

You need some perspective.

[bigbird 60,580]

46 minutes ago, metafour said:

 

Heupel is quite clearly a better offensive mind/scheme guy than Freeze in my opinion. I mean I think Freeze is pretty good (maybe a bit stale, I don't see anything revolutionary there since his product at Ole Miss) but Heupel to me has proven to be in the category of: Ryan Day, Lane Kiffin, Lincoln Riley.

100%

[Auburnguy101 325]

55 minutes ago, metafour said:

 

This is very silly and wrong. He's playing with a 3rd string QB, dude. This is Liberty - you saw how different Alabama's offense looked with Bryce Young out, and their backup is actually another former Top 100 recruit. Liberty doesn't have 3-4 QB's on their roster all of whom are ready to throw up 40+ points even against Gardner Webb. They are 6-1 with two of their QB's being injured. Their starter got hurt on like the first drive of the game and hasn't played since. He is actually expected to be back pretty soon. Again, Alabama with their QB out scored 24 against A&M and almost lost the game.

You need some perspective.

Oh come on, you make it sound like he has played a murderer’s row of a schedule. It’s a joke of a schedule honestly. Auburn would be undefeated with that schedule. Just say you love Freeze, very low standards you have. He’s very average, again, you can’t say anything to me when he hasn’t won anything and had a 1-3 record against Gus with the cheating he did at Ole Miss. Man, would hate to hear your standards of a coach if all it entails is that he beat Bammer. Oh also, he’s POS of a human being, but you keep defending him…

[metafour 4,969]

38 minutes ago, Auburnguy101 said:

Oh come on, you make it sound like he has played a murderer’s row of a schedule. It’s a joke of a schedule honestly. Auburn would be undefeated with that schedule. Just say you love Freeze, very low standards you have. He’s very average, again, you can’t say anything to me when he hasn’t won anything and had a 1-3 record against Gus with the cheating he did at Ole Miss. Man, would hate to hear your standards of a coach if all it entails is that he beat Bammer. Oh also, he’s POS of a human being, but you keep defending him…

You made a statement which I gave a legitimate response to and now you're spinning your wheels into 18 different directions that have nothing to do with what you said initially or what I even responded with. I actually said nothing about whether I wanted Freeze or not, nor did I bring up his record against anyone as any sort of point for hiring or not hiring him.

Have a great day, man. You have already proven that you aren't actually looking for a real discussion. If you think that his offensive output isn't being affected by the fact that he is forced to play his THIRD STRING quarterback (he actually put in his FOURTH STRING guy for a few plays yesterday), then I don't know what to tell you. Do you even watch football? 

[Auburnguy101 325]

1 hour ago, metafour said:

You made a statement which I gave a legitimate response to and now you're spinning your wheels into 18 different directions that have nothing to do with what you said initially or what I even responded with. I actually said nothing about whether I wanted Freeze or not, nor did I bring up his record against anyone as any sort of point for hiring or not hiring him.

Have a great day, man. You have already proven that you aren't actually looking for a real discussion. If you think that his offensive output isn't being affected by the fact that he is forced to play his THIRD STRING quarterback (he actually put in his FOURTH STRING guy for a few plays yesterday), then I don't know what to tell you. Do you even watch football? 

And you hate it when people call you out on your drivel. I think many people have selective memories when it comes to Freeze. Even with his best teams, couldn’t beat Gus, but yea, sure, let’s list reasons why he would be able to be successful here, even though he wasn’t that good at Ole Miss. I guess I don’t understand the adoration for him. And I love that you bring up he is on his 3rd or 4th string QB. Look at the teams he’s played outside of Wake Forest. It’s a joke of a schedule. Auburn would be undefeated with that schedule. Again, don’t understand the reason people think Freeze is this coach who would take us anywhere. He’s a poor man’s Gus. He wouldn’t even be mentioned if he didn’t beat UAT twice. But, that’s what clouds yours’ and others’ judgments about him. And again, let’s not even talk about the off the field stuff. I can have a legitimate conversation, just when people act like Freeze is this amazing coach is ludicrous. He had an NFL QB and still went 8-5. Sounds exactly like another coach we’ve had, does less with more…

[Auburnguy101 325]

1 hour ago, metafour said:

You made a statement which I gave a legitimate response to and now you're spinning your wheels into 18 different directions that have nothing to do with what you said initially or what I even responded with. I actually said nothing about whether I wanted Freeze or not, nor did I bring up his record against anyone as any sort of point for hiring or not hiring him.

Have a great day, man. You have already proven that you aren't actually looking for a real discussion. If you think that his offensive output isn't being affected by the fact that he is forced to play his THIRD STRING quarterback (he actually put in his FOURTH STRING guy for a few plays yesterday), then I don't know what to tell you. Do you even watch football? 

Also, have a good day…

[bigbird 60,580]

2 hours ago, Auburnguy101 said:

Oh come on, you make it sound like he has played a murderer’s row of a schedule. It’s a joke of a schedule honestly. Auburn would be undefeated with that schedule. Just say you love Freeze, very low standards you have. He’s very average, again, you can’t say anything to me when he hasn’t won anything and had a 1-3 record against Gus with the cheating he did at Ole Miss. Man, would hate to hear your standards of a coach if all it entails is that he beat Bammer. Oh also, he’s POS of a human being, but you keep defending him…

Just for my edification who, besides Deion, would you consider a good coach?

[AU9377 5,069]

On 10/10/2022 at 9:36 AM, woodford said:

All of this data is from collegefootballdata.com. I am not a sports analytics expert, but by God I'm trying to be. So if someone like @StatTiger or @Zeek wants to chime in and help elaborate or correct me I'd more than welcome it!

First, let's look at the current talent composite rankings for reference. Auburn sits at 17 and Tennessee is two below at 19. Pretty similar programs talent wise at the moment.

 

For reference, here are the terms from the glossary on the CFBdata website

• Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
• Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).

Every play is considered with context in mind, meaning down distance and field position are used to evaluate the amount of EPA compared to the actual result of the play. These statistics can be added to create a cumulative EPA over the course of a time period or season, or it can be viewed by EPA/play.

Success rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.

Here are the Predicted/Expected Points Added (PPA/EPA) for both teams so far in 2022. 

 

Cumulative EPA below. Tennessee TWICE as much offensive output as Auburn in both offense and defense.

Success Rate

 

What does this mean? Tennessee has a much better chance of scoring on a given play than Auburn does. Tennessee is much more efficient than Auburn on offense. Anyone who has watched CFB this year can tell you that, but these metrics show just how much more efficient/better Tennessee is. Why did I pick Tennessee to compare to Auburn? Simple. They are also in year 2 of their head coach who had to deal with transfers leaving the program and with LESS talent than Auburn (on paper). Auburn is not the only program who has issues. 

My point? Coaching is EVERYTHING in college football. Game planning, scheme, adjustments, and leadership are even more crucial when you don't have blue chippers peppered across your roster. Tennessee has had success because Huepel and co have been efficient on offense thanks to their scheme and game planning. UT is using some duct tape until they pull in top 10 classes. These are only a few data points and there's a lot more to it, but there's no reason why Auburn can't compete. 

 

 

References:

Success Rate Definition | The Action Network

CollegeFootballData.com

What Is EPA? How Expected Points Added Advanced Metric Can Help You with Football Betting (actionnetwork.com)

Advanced Stats in College Football: What They Are, Where to Find Them (actionnetwork.com)

The talent composite was at 14 when Harsin inherited the program. Imagine that.

[eaglenest 332]

10 hours ago, Auburnguy101 said:

Another thing, you cannot call yourself an Auburn fan and want some POS like Freeze. I’m not really worried though, because Dr. Roberts will never sign off on Freeze. There would be such a huge backlash from a large portion of the fan base, just like Schiano at UT. Auburn needs someone who would unite the fan base and Freeze would just make the fan base more divided. Sorry, can people stop hoping he gets the job? Never seen so many people clamor for such a mediocre lowlife POS coach…

who would that coach be?

[aubaseball 2,661]

8 hours ago, Auburnguy101 said:

Oh come on, you make it sound like he has played a murderer’s row of a schedule. It’s a joke of a schedule honestly. Auburn would be undefeated with that schedule. Just say you love Freeze, very low standards you have. He’s very average, again, you can’t say anything to me when he hasn’t won anything and had a 1-3 record against Gus with the cheating he did at Ole Miss. Man, would hate to hear your standards of a coach if all it entails is that he beat Bammer. Oh also, he’s POS of a human being, but you keep defending him…

Do even know anything about sports?   It’s ok to admit that you don’t like the guy because of what he has done off the field.    I, and I’m sure others on here would agree, would consider your view more worthy if you only said that.   He took a QB (that Gus couldn’t even evaluate) and turned him into an NFL player.   The guy runs circles around Gus.   You mention that he couldn’t win at Ole Miss.  I guess you forgot that it’s Ole Miss.   Of course Auburn would win every game playing Liberty’s schedule, it’s called being a power 5 team for a reason.    

[Mikey 16,770]

1 hour ago, aubaseball said:

He took a QB (that Gus couldn’t even evaluate) and turned him into an NFL player.   The guy runs circles around Gus.  

Nonsense. Gus is the only P5 coach who recognized that QB's potential and offered him a scholarship. The player himself said his failure at Auburn was his own fault, he didn't put in the effort.

Yours is a completely erroneous take on the situation.

[bigbird 60,580]

7 hours ago, Mikey said:

Nonsense. Gus is the only P5 coach who recognized that QB's potential and offered him a scholarship. The player himself said his failure at Auburn was his own fault, he didn't put in the effort.

Yours is a completely erroneous take on the situation.

Wait, are you claiming Willis as a Gus success? 

[cole256 17,084]

You should stick to whatever it is that you do

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

16 hours ago, bigbird said:

Just for my edification who, besides Deion, would you consider a good coach?

Did u ever get an answer

[bigbird 60,580]

1 minute ago, NWALA Tiger said:

Did u ever get an answer

No

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, cole256 said:

You should stick to whatever it is that you do

s*** post on AuFamily is what he does