Haley beats Biden by … 17 pts?!

[AUDub 11,187]

It’s so intellectually lazy it like cargo cult logic, whipping out terms like “ERP DERP AD HOMINEM” with nary a care to the actual application of logic.

I’m over the moon with how dumb it is. It’s like Mike Tyson boxing a person with one arm tied behind their back. 

[KansasTiger 3,261]

Just now, AUDub said:

It’s so intellectually lazy it like cargo cult logic, whipping out terms like “ERP DERP AD HOMINEM” with nary a care to the actual application of logic.

I’m over the moon with how dumb it is. It’s like Mike Tyson boxing a person with one arm tied behind their back. 

You should be easier on yourself. I'd let you untie your hand...

[AUDub 11,187]

1 minute ago, KansasTiger said:

@auburnatl1 I can't imagine why I'd have to pick and choose what I discuss on this forum...

It’s because you’re stupid and your ideations aren’t worthy of seeing the light of day, moron. 

[AUDub 11,187]

Just now, KansasTiger said:

You should be easier on yourself. I'd let you untie your hand...

“I know you are but what am I” 

the conservatives of this forum, errbody. 

[AUDub 11,187]

Lazy, stupid. Whips out attacks with nary a care but cries like a baby when someone has the gall to call them on it.

you suck. Go away. 

[KansasTiger 3,261]

5 minutes ago, AUDub said:

“I know you are but what am I” 

the conservatives of this forum, errbody. 

I stopped trying to make a point with you a page ago. I'm just trolling for fun now.

3 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Lazy, stupid. Whips out attacks with nary a care but cries like a baby when someone has the gall to call them on it.

you suck. Go away. 

I am more than happy to discuss points with someone. You're just attacking my character. Im going to defend myself...And yet I still refuse to do the same character attacks. I wonder what that says?

Edited December 14, 2023 by KansasTiger

[AUDub 11,187]

Just now, KansasTiger said:

I stopped trying to make a point with you a page ago. I'm just trolling for fun now

You didn’t refute a thing. You accused me of “copium” and expected to get away with it.

No. And **** you for thinking I’d let it slide. 
 

2 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

I am more than happy to discuss points with someone. You're just attacking my character. Im going to defend myself...And yet I still refuse to do the same chacter attacks. I wonder what that says?

You attacked me first. Wanna reset to 0 and argue like an adult, I’m game. Until then, eat s***. 

[KansasTiger 3,261]

Just now, AUDub said:

You didn’t refute a thing. You accused me of “copium” and expected to get away with it.

No. And **** you for thinking I’d let it slide. 
 

You attacked me first. Wanna reset to 0 and argue like an adult, I’m game. Until then, eat s***. 

Saying you take frequent tokes from that copium pipe is a point, and not an attack. You just didn't like it. Oh well.

I have no desire to discuss a thing with someone who unravels like you do at the first sign of provocation. 

[AUDub 11,187]

Just now, KansasTiger said:

Saying you take frequent tokes from that copium pipe is a point, and not an attack. You just didn't like it. Oh well.

It very much was an attack. You didn’t go at my point. You came at me. THERE’S the ad hominen. But you’re so balls to the wall stupid you thought it would skate. 
 

2 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

I have no desire to discuss a thing with someone who unravels like you do at the first sign of provocation. 

Right because “copium” was such a good dig regarding who unraveled first. 
 

Christ you suck. 

[auburnatl1 5,201]

11 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

@auburnatl1 I can't imagine why I'd have to pick and choose what I discuss on this forum...

Kansas I do appreciate you. You’re fearless.  And can articulate your pov without 150 face palms. You and I get sideways on trump and assault rifles … but I’d absolutely have a beer with you. 

[KansasTiger 3,261]

Just now, auburnatl1 said:

Kansas I do appreciate you. You’re fearless.  And can articulate your pov without 150 face palms. You and I get sideways on trump and assault rifles … but I’d absolutely have a beer with you. 

First one would be on me

[auburnatl1 5,201]

1 hour ago, SaltyTiger said:

You sound a bit snobbish Natl.

I probably can be.  Dont mean to sound condescending. 

[TexasTiger 13,091]

17 points, huh?

[AUDub 11,187]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

17 points, huh?

She’s gonna kick his ass just you watch. Polling can’t lie 11 months from now or something. 
 

Cope, lib. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by AUDub

[ScotsAU 1,343]

So… TLDR most of this thread. I do stats for a living, and nerd out on political theory. Here’s some things to consider:

-Most conservatives don’t actually like Trump, but really don’t want Biden to win. Similarly, most liberals don’t care for Biden, but really don’t want Trump to win. 
 

- Haley isn’t trending super well because a) primaries tend to include more extremist voting bases and she’s much more moderate than Trump, and b) Up to this point, a lot of republicans felt that Trump had the best chance to win. 
 

- This surge for Haley in the primary is potentially legit for a few reasons. 1. Biden has essentially secured the democratic nomination. If liberals see an opportunity to potentially keep trump off the ticket, they may cross party lines in the primary and vote against Trump. 2. If moderate conservatives begin to see Haley as having a chance in this election, support for Trump might fall. 3. There have been numerous polls looking at support for Trump if he’s actually convicted of something. Projections have suggested that around 40-55% of voting republicans will withdraw support for Trump if he’s actually been convicted of a crime. So, Haley could win the nomination if chips fall the right way. 
 

- As for the general election, that’s a longer shot, but still plausible. This is the point in a president’s term where support is generally very low. Support for Biden will probably rebound at least some. As they say, it’s generally hard to unseat an incumbent because, as election time approaches, moderates tend to favor the devil they know over the one they don’t. Should Haley get the nomination, there will still probably be the inherent battle against the incumbent with that advantage. But, Haley is more likely to pull moderates or even moderate liberals because she’d be something different. Americans are kind of tired of older men in office. That might be enough to pull in votes for people that maybe don’t agree with her 100%. In addition, with a threat of Trump abated in this scenario, the folks to the far left that think Biden isn’t liberal enough are less likely to show up to vote for him. 
 

So this is a legitimate possibility. BUT, it would essentially take Haley’s momentum continuing over the next month or two. She’d need to continue to climb in polls, and she’d need a solid showing in the first few primary states to have a chance. 
 

 

[SaltyTiger 7,890]

11 hours ago, AUDub said:

Right the “liberal swarming forum” or “liberal nonsense” guy is the epitome of not coming off as snobbish. 

Thanks Ben

[SaltyTiger 7,890]

9 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

17 points, huh?

According to the WSJ poll, yes.

[auburnatl1 5,201]

9 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

So… TLDR most of this thread. I do stats for a living, and nerd out on political theory. Here’s some things to consider:

-Most conservatives don’t actually like Trump, but really don’t want Biden to win. Similarly, most liberals don’t care for Biden, but really don’t want Trump to win. 
 

- Haley isn’t trending super well because a) primaries tend to include more extremist voting bases and she’s much more moderate than Trump, and b) Up to this point, a lot of republicans felt that Trump had the best chance to win. 
 

- This surge for Haley in the primary is potentially legit for a few reasons. 1. Biden has essentially secured the democratic nomination. If liberals see an opportunity to potentially keep trump off the ticket, they may cross party lines in the primary and vote against Trump. 2. If moderate conservatives begin to see Haley as having a chance in this election, support for Trump might fall. 3. There have been numerous polls looking at support for Trump if he’s actually convicted of something. Projections have suggested that around 40-55% of voting republicans will withdraw support for Trump if he’s actually been convicted of a crime. So, Haley could win the nomination if chips fall the right way. 
 

- As for the general election, that’s a longer shot, but still plausible. This is the point in a president’s term where support is generally very low. Support for Biden will probably rebound at least some. As they say, it’s generally hard to unseat an incumbent because, as election time approaches, moderates tend to favor the devil they know over the one they don’t. Should Haley get the nomination, there will still probably be the inherent battle against the incumbent with that advantage. But, Haley is more likely to pull moderates or even moderate liberals because she’d be something different. Americans are kind of tired of older men in office. That might be enough to pull in votes for people that maybe don’t agree with her 100%. In addition, with a threat of Trump abated in this scenario, the folks to the far left that think Biden isn’t liberal enough are less likely to show up to vote for him. 
 

So this is a legitimate possibility. BUT, it would essentially take Haley’s momentum continuing over the next month or two. She’d need to continue to climb in polls, and she’d need a solid showing in the first few primary states to have a chance. 
 

 

I agree with your assessment. My instincts are (somewhat based on what I’ve seen friends and family do) is that traditional dems and republicans have formally reclassified themselves to independents (now the largest “party”). Almost in protest. The consequence has been both parties have lost moderation in the primaries and therefore submit candidates to the general that are not representative of the majority.

Again, Haley polls higher than any candidate from either party. By far. But unless independents and dems cross over to vote in the gop primaries (in states that allow it), she’s going to get smoked by Trump with a 60% unfavorable score. Say that 3 times.

it may become critical for independents to hold their nose and (re) register with a party that best fits them to help end this craziness.

[TitanTiger 20,531]

If the GOP nominates Trump again, they deserve to disintegrate into irrelevance as a party and a movement forever.

[TitanTiger 20,531]

A few minor nitpicks and comments:

10 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

- Haley isn’t trending super well because a) primaries tend to include more extremist voting bases and she’s much more moderate than Trump, and b) Up to this point, a lot of republicans felt that Trump had the best chance to win. 

Haley is a traditional conservative, not a moderate.  Trump isn't a conservative at all.  Haley is more of an adult than Trump, lest we confuse basic maturity and not throwing tantrums for "moderation."

I do agree the primary system gives too much power to the crazies in each party.

 

10 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

- This surge for Haley in the primary is potentially legit for a few reasons. 1. Biden has essentially secured the democratic nomination. If liberals see an opportunity to potentially keep trump off the ticket, they may cross party lines in the primary and vote against Trump. 2. If moderate conservatives begin to see Haley as having a chance in this election, support for Trump might fall. 3. There have been numerous polls looking at support for Trump if he’s actually convicted of something. Projections have suggested that around 40-55% of voting republicans will withdraw support for Trump if he’s actually been convicted of a crime. So, Haley could win the nomination if chips fall the right way. 

From your lips to God's ears.

 

 

[icanthearyou 4,464]

21 hours ago, KansasTiger said:

There should be 4+ parties in this country. But it's the dems and Republicans fault why that hasn't happened. They don't want that, cause they'd lose overall power. They created a system where if you want to have a real shot at president, you either have to join one of the two parties and conform to their ideology or hijack the party (wasnt realistic until Trump). So that's what's happening. I dont feel sorry for the power hungry bastards at all.

The parties themselves are NOT the corrupting force.  Money in politics/government is the corrupting force.  Government that can be bought will be, regardless of the number of parties.

The partisan political divide keeps us from restoring the "government of the people".  We should stop being partisan and demand, campaign finance reform, ending paid lobbying, stop privatization, repeal Citizens United.

Our problems are structural, fundamental.  The partisan issues are nothing but a distraction, a divide and conquer mechanism.

All of our economic gains for the past 5 decades have gone to the .1%.  Their share of GDP has gone up 100% while,,, for the other 99.9%, inflation adjusted income has remained flat.  The power in this country does not lie in the parties or, the government.  The power lies with those who have the means to purchase the government.

[ScotsAU 1,343]

35 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

A few minor nitpicks and comments:

Haley is a traditional conservative, not a moderate.  Trump isn't a conservative at all.  Haley is more of an adult than Trump, lest we confuse basic maturity and not throwing tantrums for "moderation."

I do agree the primary system gives too much power to the crazies in each party.

 

From your lips to God's ears.

 

 

Good nitpick. You’re right. Not a moderate. Just not a wack job populist. Still, she’s more likely to pull moderate voters than Trump.

[auburnatl1 5,201]

1 hour ago, icanthearyou said:

The parties themselves are NOT the corrupting force.  Money in politics/government is the corrupting force.  Government that can be bought will be, regardless of the number of parties.

The partisan political divide keeps us from restoring the "government of the people".  We should stop being partisan and demand, campaign finance reform, ending paid lobbying, stop privatization, repeal Citizens United.

Our problems are structural, fundamental.  The partisan issues are nothing but a distraction, a divide and conquer mechanism.

All of our economic gains for the past 5 decades have gone to the .1%.  Their share of GDP has gone up 100% while,,, for the other 99.9%, inflation adjusted income has remained flat.  The power in this country does not lie in the parties or, the government.  The power lies with those who have the means to purchase the government.

I agree with some of your points. But to be clear, the entire divide issue is not just because of money. Gun control, culture wars, religion, ect. Just stating the obvious that money and corruptions is just one dimension.

[AU9377 5,109]

19 hours ago, KansasTiger said:

Oh I don't believe that she does. Or at least not in anyway that matters in the scheme of things. Read the thread next time before spouting liberal nonsense.

Why does everything have to be liberal = bad and conservative = good to you?  Too many people have become conditioned to view things in that light. 

[icanthearyou 4,464]

31 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

I agree with some of your points. But to be clear, the entire divide issue is not just because of money. Gun control, culture wars, religion, ect. Just stating the obvious that money and corruptions is just one dimension.

I do not dispute that these issues are real to many people.  However, to those who own the government,,, these issues are convenient distractions that create a divide,,, divide and conquer.

Society itself typically handles social issues well,,, given the chance, given the right conditions.  At the heart of politics is economics.  It is truly semi civilized class warfare.  The real question is not left or right.  The real questions are about:

Do you believe in some fairness?

Do you believe in some balance?

Do you believe in humanity?

Or, do you believe in a "no holds barred", every man for himself, winner take all approach?  I do not believe that capitalism, democracy or, civility can exist in such an environment.

The power of the government would not be feared if,,, we truly had a "government of the people".  The government is not the issue.  Power resides with those who have the ability to buy the politicians, lobby the politicians.

I mean no offense by this, I actually enjoyed the man's program but,,, you remind me of Bill Buckley.   He often agreed with all of the problems, the need to remedy them, yet,,, he could not consider ideas that were not in line with his conditioning, his ideology.