Auburn Only Wins when Bama is Down...

[DKW 86 7,451]

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Great research proves another CW Mis-Conception.

Busting the delusional myth: AU's wins vs. Bama

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I’ve heard it said by some Alabama fans that the only way Auburn can beat Bama is when Bama is “down.” This argument usually includes the assertion that Auburn’s success only occurs when Bama is “down,” implying that the state of Alabama’s program determines whether or not Auburn can beat Alabama.

I’ve heard this argument enough times that I finally decided to look into recent history to see if there’s any evidence to support it. For the purposes of this research, I looked at the last 20 seasons (1986-2005). Additionally, I made the following assumptions:

If a team recorded 9 wins or more, they are not considered “down.”

If a team recorded 8 wins, I labeled them “mediocre.”

If a team recorded 7 wins or fewer, they are considered “down.”

** Even though the record books have been changed to show that Bama forfeited most of 1993, they actually finished 9-3-1 that season, and I’m going with this record rather than the NCAA’s penalized version.

Over these last 20 seasons, here’s what I found:

PEAK TIME

When Auburn has won or shared the SEC title (4 times), Bama was “down” twice, and the other two years Bama finished 9-3 and 10-2. Auburn won all 4 games in these SEC title years.

Therefore, when Auburn has won the SEC, Bama was down only half the time.

When Alabama has won or shared the SEC title (3 times), Auburn was “down” twice (1992, 1999). The other year, 1989, Alabama lost to Auburn…and they shared the SEC title.

Therefore, when Alabama has won the SEC, their 2 wins over Auburn occurred when the Tigers were down, and the year that Auburn was not down, Bama lost to the Tigers.

OVERALL, REGARDLESS OF SEC TITLES

In the last 20 years (1986-2005), Auburn is 12-8 versus Alabama.

In Auburn’s 12 wins over Alabama, here’s the distribution:

When Bama has 9 or more wins: 6

When Bama has 8 wins: 1

When Bama has 7 or fewer wins: 5

In Bama’s 8 wins over Auburn, here’s the distribution:

When Auburn has 9 or more wins: 1

When Auburn has 8 wins: 2

When Auburn has 7 or fewer wins: 5

CONCLUSION

Make what you will of these statistical facts. I think they speak loud and clear – Six of Auburn’s 12 wins versus the Tide came when Bama had 9 or more wins on the season. Conversely, Alabama has only beaten Auburn once (out of 8 wins) when the Tigers recorded 9 or more wins for the year.

Facts are facts. While there are some reasonable Alabama fans, there are plenty of irrational, caveman-logic prone, delusional, ratbags out there who will explode and deny that these facts are really facts. And for them, I suggest they visit www.cfbdatawarehouse.com

In the meantime, here’s a summary of the each team’s wins by year, with the loser’s record for that season

Years Auburn Beat the Tide

1986        10-3

1987        7-5

1988        9-3

1989        10-2

1993        9-3-1

1995        8-3

1997        4-7

2000        3-8

2002        10-3

2003        4-9

2004        6-6

2005        9-2

Years Bama Beat the Tigers

1990        8-3-1

1991        5-6

1992        5-5-1

1994        9-1-1

1996        8-4

1998        3-8

1999        5-6

2001        7-5

Another interesting factoid - The composite record for each team the last 20 years:

Auburn 166-67-5

Alabama 166-77-1

The composite records dont look right but the rest looks to hold true.

[auskull 239]

I also have struggled with this tradition thing that keeps coming up. I believe that Bryant coached 25 years at UAT and won 22 of 25 games against Auburn (+19). After last Saturday,s game Bama was ahead in the series by 7 (38-31). At first blush, I would assume that all the other Bama coaches had dismal records againt AU. Auburn is +12 against all other Bama coaches going back to the 1800's. Appears that when Auburn vs Alabama, the tradition is with Auburn. No mythical wins here, just on the field head to head victories before and after Bryant. Bryant proved to be a statistical abnormality. Maybe Stat Tiger can check this out.

[OlderWhiskey 966]

Auburn beat ala under Bryant in '58, 63, 69, 70, 72, and 82.

[WarTim 3,457]

uat is DOWN because the Auburn Tigers BEAT THEM DOWN ! ! ! (Again and again and again and again)

THAT is what REALLY hurts 'em, knowing the TRUTH.

[jared52 4,354]

The more I peruse the Bama boards the more I see how irrational and unshakeable they are. It's amazing the things they believe about themselves, the things they think others think about them and the things they believe about others. It's like a giant group of football noobs. They think Shula has Tubs number and that Auburn is just lucky and they are hoping Tubs stays at AU for a long time. It's dumbfounding to even try to get into a conversation and one of them just says moo ag ewe to every post by and Auburn fan. No point, no rebuttal, just moo. It's asinine the way they view college football.

[Raven_tiger 5]

Well this whole thing is garbage. It only looks at RECENT history. Everyone knows that in order to establish the bummer's great tradition we an anthropologist...

Heck, The colosseum hosted their last National Championship game...

Now that's (pre)historic...

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

We were down when we had Barfield. That takes care of 9 L's on our side.

I like this hey you beat us when we were down so it don't count bit

[Nay4AU 2]

You just have to understand some of the bammer fans have a disease. It’s like alcoholism. In order to beat the disease you first have to make it past step one.

Step One – Admit you have a problem. Until they do this we will have to keep hearing all of their excuses.

[Tigermike 3,066]

I think it would be fair to say that Bama only beats AUBURN, when AUBURN is down. But for the delusional Bama naiton, the facts will in no way change their minds.