Target Rich

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In an effort to be fair and balanced I will post an article written by liberals for liberals.

February 20, 2006

Target Rich

Democrats have a slew of vulnerable House Republicans in their sights for the 2006 midterm elections.

By Mark Gersh and Ed Kilgore

As recently as a few months ago, prospects for a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006 looked marginal, at best. After slowly scratching its way back into contention in the three congressional cycles that followed the debacle of 1994, the party lost seats in the last two elections. Republicans, meanwhile, were enjoying all the benefits of incumbency, a sharp reduction in competitive districts due to a highly partisan round of GOP-engineered gerrymandering, and an ideological realignment of the electorate that had been fueling consistent Republicans gains in "red states." So Democratic pessimism seemed entirely rational.

But at the beginning of 2006, the trend arrows have turned in a very different direction. With Republicans mired in a never-ending series of ethics scandals, approval ratings for President Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress are abysmal. House GOP leaders are particularly embattled. They have steadily lost control of their own membership, and with it, their ability to promote an agenda. Republicans' extreme partisanship and take-no-prisoners tactics have also helped keep House Democrats united. Meanwhile, they've been running out of ways to pad their numbers: The harvesting of conservative districts in red states, especially in the South, has reached the point of diminishing returns.

For the first time in more than a decade, the "lay of the land," as measured by vulnerable incumbents, open seats, and candidate recruitment, seems to be favoring Democrats. Moreover, Democrats need a net pickup of just 15 out of 435 seats in order to regain control of the House -- a relatively modest number by historical standards, and one achieved by the minority party in four of the last eight midterm elections.

With all this wind at their backs, Democrats may now be able to expand the number of competitive races and overwhelm vulnerable Republican incumbents who have survived by narrow margins in the past. Also in their favor will be an emerging Democratic advantage in candidate recruitment and retirement decisions, and a dwindling Republican margin in fundraising.

The Democrats' momentum is perhaps best illustrated by recent polls showing them ahead by unusually large margins (ranging from the high single digits to double digits) in generic congressional match-ups. If that trend holds -- and is reinforced by the historic tendency of voters to frown on a president's party halfway through a second term -- then Democrats simply have to be smart about projecting a popular national message that features a sharp critique of Republican misgovernment and a clear alternative agenda.

The greatest concentration of vulnerable House Republican incumbents is in the Northeast, where many of them represent districts recently carried by Democratic presidential candidates.

In Connecticut, Republican Reps. Rob Simmons and Christopher Shays, both re-elected by less than 10 percentage points in 2004, face rematches against strong Democratic challengers. Democrats have also recruited a formidable candidate to oppose Republican Rep. Nancy Johnson in a district carried by both John Kerry and Al Gore. New Hampshire Rep. Jeb Bradley is also quite vulnerable, and his Granite State colleague Rep. Charles Bass could become so.

Democrats could pick up several House seats in Pennsylvania, where, higher up on the ticket, Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and the Democratic challenger to Sen. Rick Santorum, State Treasurer Bob Casey, were both leading in recent polls. Most notably, in a suburban Philadelphia district where Kerry beat Bush, Democrat Lois Murphy may be the favorite against Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach. The race is a rematch of their very close 2004 race. Meanwhile, also in the Philadelphia suburbs, Republican freshman Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick faces a tough race. Elsewhere in the state, Republican Reps. Curt Weldon (whose Delaware County district was won by both Gore and Kerry) and Melissa Hart (whose western Pennsylvania district was recently represented by a Democrat) are likely to face serious challenges.

In the 7th District of New Jersey -- a state where the recent Democratic trend was underlined by former Sen. Jon Corzine's double-digit win in the 2005 gubernatorial race -- the recruitment by Democrats of experienced State Assemblywoman Linda Stender has made incumbent Republican Rep. Michael Ferguson look vulnerable.

Next door in New York, likely landslide wins for Democrats Eliot Spitzer (in the governor's race) and Hillary Clinton (in her bid for reelection to the U.S. Senate) could sweep out several House Republican incumbents.

The bottom line is that the Northeastern region could provide more than half of the net gains required to produce a Democratic Congress, as moderate Democrats slowly but surely continue to replace moderate Republicans in suburban districts.

Another hot spot is Ohio, the pivotal battlefield of 2004, where the long-dominant state Republican administration may now be as unpopular as any in history -- and where Rep. Robert Ney, a longtime House committee chairman, has become deeply embroiled in the Jack Abramoff influence-peddling scandals. The leading indicator of surging Democratic strength in Ohio was the near-win by neophyte candidate Paul Hackett in an August 2005 special election. That race was in a profoundly conservative district in the southern part of the state, where Bush won by a two-to-one margin just a year earlier. Aside from Ney -- and Hackett's now-notorious opponent, Rep. Jean Schmidt, who accused Pennsylvania's Democratic Rep. John Murtha of cowardice on the House floor -- at least two other Ohio Republicans are also facing tough opposition.

In the South and Southwest, a number of perennially vulnerable Republican incumbents may finally meet their matches against strong opponents and generally favorable circumstances for Democrats. These include Republican Rep. Heather Wilson of New Mexico; Republican Reps. Mike Sodrel and John Hostettler of Indiana (Sodrel is facing former Democratic Rep. Baron Hill); Republican Rep. Charles Taylor of North Carolina (opposed by former football star Heath Shuler); and Republican Rep. Clay Shaw of Florida (challenged by Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein). But the most symbolically important vulnerable GOP incumbent is, of course, deposed House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas. He is not only trailing in early polls against former Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson, but also faces a primary challenge from former Rep. Steve Stockman.

There is also a scandal-generated Democratic opportunity in California's Central Valley: Veteran GOP Rep. Richard Pombo's alleged links to the Abramoff scandal have made him suddenly vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents in highly competitive districts look strong. Outside of contests skewed by redistricting, only seven incumbent Democrats have lost since 1996. A couple of upset winners in 2004 -- most notably Rep. Melissa Bean of Illinois -- will have tough races. And only one Southern Democratic incumbent expects a strong challenge -- Rep. Jim Marshall of Georgia, whose district was gerrymandered to make it less Democratic. He nonetheless has held a sizable lead in early polls. So, by and large, Democrats are unlikely to lose many seats that would offset their probable gains.

In the competition for open seats, most of the big targets at this point are districts now held by Republicans. That's a big change from the recent past. Republicans shored up their control of Congress by dominating competitive open contests in 1996, 2000, and 2002. But the recent announcement by Arizona Rep. Jim Kolbe that he will retire could be a sign that the tough landscape will produce additional GOP retirements early this year.

There are two open GOP seats in districts carried by John Kerry that are good prospects for Democratic gains: Colorado's 7th District, represented by gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Beauprez, who won the seat by less than a thousand votes, and Iowa's 1st District, where Rep. Jim Nussle is retiring from a district that Kerry won by 8 percentage points. Democrats in Florida and Wisconsin also have open-seat targets.

If the current Republican disarray continues or even deepens, there may yet be additional opportunities for Democrats as the competitive battleground expands. And in Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the Democratic House campaign effort enjoys a smart and very aggressive field marshal who is unlikely to make many mistakes.

Add it all up, and 2006 looks to be a political year in which Democrats have all the elements for a big win. But that's if, and only if, they can balance their critique of Republican misgovernment with a credible argument that they can offer better, reform-minded leadership.

The ball is in the donkey's court.

Mark Gersh is Washington director of the National Committee for an Effective Congress. Ed Kilgore is vice president for policy at the DLC.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentar..._20_06_MGE.html