Men's Rotation Next Year

[mcgufcm 4,096]

I very, very rarely post about Auburn basketball, but for whatever reason, the signing class coming in next year picqued my interest. I started trying to come up with a rotation for next year, and good gracious, I have no idea. I saw us play a few times last year. I just don't have any idea what role the returnees really play.

In basketball, you need eight guys. That's it. Seven is often too few (that's why Kentucky had to play Vargas from time to time even though he was clearly out of his league) and nine or ten is just too many. It prevents role players from learning a specific role OR takes away minutes from your studs. The only reason to play nine or ten is if you're a fast-pace offense or press defense. Outside of that, eight is perfect.

With that in mind, I look at Auburn and have no idea how to whittle down the group to eight. Who are the studs? Who are the role players? What roles do they play? Here's the best I could come up with:

PG - Sullivan/Wallace

SG - Greene/Denson

SF - Price/Langford

PF - Johnson/Payne

C - Chubb/Granger or Dixon-Tatum

What's the identity of that team? Who are the incubent starters? Chubb and Sullivan seem set, but can you say the same for Wallace or Denson? What about Payne and Langford who bounced in and out of the rotation throughout the year? There are plenty of minutes for the new guys, but I wish we had more certainty about what the vets can and cannot do. Certainly, we have to find someone (or better yet: two players!) that can shoot from distance. We didn't have a single dude (on a team with a three guard starting lineup for chunks of the year) that shot better than 35% from three. That's awful. If Greene or Price can do better, they'll start from Day One.

Anyone with more exposure to the team have a clearer picture for how this might shake out? Who are the most likely exclusions when we start to develop defined roles and minutes are tight?

[Mikey 16,598]

My friend, you are asking yourself and we readers to gaze into tea leaves. There is too much turnover, too many promising new faces involved and too many current players that need to either improve or hit the pine to even make an educated guess at this point in time. Barring injury, Frankie Sullivan will probably start. Beyond that, we'll be lucky if October and November practices answer your questions.

[mcgufcm 4,096]

For a team returning five players with starting experience... it's baffling to me that we have no clue what the team will look like going into next year. This isn't Kentucky. We're not watching 5 or 6 of our 7 man rotation walk out the door. We're bringing back the starting PG, starting C, and three guys that started in the 2-4 roles at various times this past season. And we still have no idea what we have on hand?!? Um, I'm not optimistic about how this turns out.

[AUslug 1]

I'm always an optimist about the basketball team but Year 3 under Barbee needs to show some marked improvement in the win column.

[Mikey 16,598]

For a team returning five players with starting experience... it's baffling to me that we have no clue what the team will look like going into next year. This isn't Kentucky. We're not watching 5 or 6 of our 7 man rotation walk out the door. We're bringing back the starting PG, starting C, and three guys that started in the 2-4 roles at various times this past season. And we still have no idea what we have on hand?!? Um, I'm not optimistic about how this turns out.

A rather significant problem is that several of those returnees were playing because some better, SEC quality player was not on the roster. An infusion of talent is needed. Maybe the recent recruiting class will provide that, maybe not.

[Tiger 8,825]

I expect Shaq Johnson to get Auburn basketball on the Sportcenter Top 10 a few times in the upcoming season, but I also feel his game needs to be developed -- his highlight films show off his amazing athleticism but there is very little basketball value in the footage.

That being said, I can't wait to see him catch some insane dunks this season!

[mcgufcm 4,096]

Mikey, I hear what you're saying, but it's still an issue that we don't even know where these guys fit as between each other. Even if you infuse talent, we're going to need players from the holdovers. Can you say for sure who wins out between Wallace and Denson? Or Langford and Payne? The way our minutes broke down (all over the map) I wonder whether we're bringing in the new class with any idea of what we have. We know Frankie's playing. I assume Chubb is a lock. That's about it. It's all just off-season speculation. I was just wondering if anyone had defined opinions (this guy does these two things well... he'll definitely play for that reason) on the vets or the guys coming in.

[JB33 1]

Well, last night's news makes this a simpler discussion. Until Harrell is eligible (not till 2013?) or Johnson is reinstated (yeah, right), all we have is an eight man rotation . . . and half of them will be freshmen. And that's assuming they can all actually stay eligible. Ugh

[Mikey 16,598]

Ok, I'll answer the original question, now that certain matters have cleared the situation up: Chubb, Payne, Denson, Sullivan and Some Recruit will be the starters, barring another unpleasant surprise or two. Some Other Recruits will also be in the rotation, if they make it into school.

Really, this is not looking good. Hard to build a team when more than half of the guys that are supposed to be building blocks get kicked off every year.

[JB33 1]

Point of fact: We are forgetting Josh Wallace - the other (engineering) scholarship player. Now we have FIVE returning players - get your dancin' shoes on!!

To build on mcgufcm's (what does that mean, anyway?) point, though, we basically have a team of one-dimensional players. Inconsistent or not, Varez Ward was (no disrespect to KG) our most valuable player because he did a number of things well. Losing him (and KG) really exposes the others' limitations. Arguably the only players that contribute in multiple ways are:

1. Josh Wallace - The only guy on the roster (till the freshmen arrive) who can run the point on offense, and he's a very tough on ball defender. On the downside, teams have zero respect for him as a scorer, and his (lack of) height can be a problem, depending on what defensive set we're in.

2. Alan (sp? ) Payne - Showed flashes offensively as a freshmen, though he seemed to regress (maybe just do to reduced minutes) this year. Valuable, in any case, because of his length; he can defend any position on the perimeter, and he's usually a factor on the boards (particularly on the offensive glass). Reminds me of Bryant Smith, in terms of his game and physical makeup, but he obviously has a ways to go to match Smith's production. (That said, Smith improved by leaps and bounds during his career; once he became a consistent jump-shooting threat, everything else opened up. Maybe the same can happen for Payne.)

You're basically left with a collection of (glorified) role players. Chubb, when he's right, is a decent low-post scoring threat, but he's a non-factor, more often than not, defensively and on the boards. Sullivan is a scorer (and more just a shooter, since his injury), period. He doesn't create for others, and he's nothing special defensively. Denson is a terrific, creative scorer in the open court, but he doesn't offer much in the half-court, and he's always been a liability on defense.

I don't know enough about the guys coming in to predict how they'll help / fit in, but I think it's safe to say that (i) the bigger guys are going to have to play right away for us to have any chance on the boards or with interior defense (Didn't think you'd be missing Adrian Forbes, did you?); and (ii) no disrespect to Josh Wallace (love the kid's effort, and you have to respect what he's achieved, just to be out there playing), but if Brian Greene can't beat him out, Barbee had better sign a legit SEC point guard / playmaker next year.