SEC Softball Tourney & postseason talk

[boomstick 1,315]

@ellitor feel free to move this to the correct thread if this isn't the right spot.

Looking at the SEC standings, we have a chance to lock up a first round bye and even get as high as the #2 seed in the SECT if we handle business this weekend. If Bama loses to OM tonight, we're at least the #4 no matter what happens in the Bama series. Assuming Bama beats Ole Miss tonight, here are the scenarios for seeding:

A sweep by Bama this weekend and we would be the #5 seed and no bye.

Auburn wins one at Bama, we're the #4 seed.

Auburn wins two at Bama, we're the #3 seed

Auburn wins two and Tennessee takes 2/3 from aTm, we're the #2 seed.

Auburn sweeps Bama, we're the #2 seed unless aTm sweeps UT, then we're the #3 seed.

 

[AU64 10,122]

12 minutes ago, boomstick said:

@ellitor feel free to move this to the correct thread if this isn't the right spot.

Looking at the SEC standings, we have a chance to lock up a first round bye and even get as high as the #2 seed in the SECT if we handle business this weekend. If Bama loses to OM tonight, we're at least the #4 no matter what happens in the Bama series. Assuming Bama beats Ole Miss tonight, here are the scenarios for seeding:

A sweep by Bama this weekend and we would be the #5 seed and no bye.

Auburn wins one at Bama, we're the #3 seed.

Auburn wins two at Bama, we're the #3 seed

Auburn wins two and Tennessee takes 2/3 from aTm, we're the #2 seed.

Auburn sweeps Bama, we're the #2 seed unless aTm sweeps UT, then we're the #3 seed.

 

Definitely don't want' the bama sweep.....and in my view the loss of the bye is the least of my reasons....though ifI we can't beat bama at least once, we don't deserve a bye anyway...JMO.

But...aside from that....and while I appreciate the work that went into those calculations and possibilities....think I'm gonna wait and see who actually wins the game before I get too engaged in what comes next.   A question though:  is there any significant difference in being #2 or #3.....don't you end up playing each other anyway?

[ellitor 33,091]

4 minutes ago, boomstick said:

@ellitor feel free to move this to the correct thread if this isn't the right spot.

Looking at the SEC standings, we have a chance to lock up a first round bye and even get as high as the #2 seed in the SECT if we handle business this weekend. If Bama loses to OM tonight, we're at least the #4 no matter what happens in the Bama series. Assuming Bama beats Ole Miss tonight, here are the scenarios for seeding:

A sweep by Bama this weekend and we would be the #5 seed and no bye.

Auburn wins one at Bama, we're the #3 seed.

Auburn wins two at Bama, we're the #3 seed

Auburn wins two and Tennessee takes 2/3 from aTm, we're the #2 seed.

Auburn sweeps Bama, we're the #2 seed unless aTm sweeps UT, then we're the #3 seed.

 

Bolded part by itself is incorrect. If Bama wins tonight and we get 1 from them we are at least the 4 seed. To get the #3 seed winning only 1 against Bama, Vols would have to sweep aTm or aTm would have to win 2 of 3 over the Vols.

The rest looks correct.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 minute ago, ellitor said:

Bolded part by itself is incorrect. If Bama wins tonight and we get 1 from them we are at least the 4 seed. To get the #3 seed winning only 1 against Bama, Vols would have to sweep aTm or aTm would have to win 2 of 3 over the Vols.

The rest looks correct.

Yeah, that was a typo. It's edited now.

[boomstick 1,315]

4 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Definitely don't want' the bama sweep.....and in my view the loss of the bye is the least of my reasons....though ifI we can't beat bama at least once, we don't deserve a bye anyway...JMO.

But...aside from that....and while I appreciate the work that went into those calculations and possibilities....think I'm gonna wait and see who actually wins the game before I get too engaged in what comes next.   A question though:  is there any significant difference in being #2 or #3.....don't you end up playing each other anyway?

Don't really think there's much advantage to #2 versus #3. Either of those spots avoids Florida until the tournament final.

[AU64 10,122]

Avoiding UF as long as possible is a good thing....

[ellitor 33,091]

26 minutes ago, boomstick said:

 

@ellitor feel free to move this to the correct thread if this isn't the right spot.

 

Created it's own thread.

[ellitor 33,091]

20 minutes ago, AU64 said:

A question though:  is there any significant difference in being #2 or #3.....don't you end up playing each other anyway?

Not necessarily. #2 likely gets UK in the quarters. #3 likely gets LSU. I'd rather play UK as getting to the semis could mean the difference between us getting to host a Super Regional down the line. More importantly, finishing #2 in the toughest conference with us playing 1 of the toughest schedules in the SEC may be enough alone to get us 1 of the 8 national seeds.

[AU64 10,122]

I haven't studied the match ups but don't see much difference between the two of them.....and we know about LSU having played them already. JMO but the only issue would be what puts us in the best position for the regionals, etc.

[ellitor 33,091]

2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I haven't studied the match ups but don't see much difference between the two of them.....and we know about LSU having played them already. JMO but the only issue would be what puts us in the best position for the regionals, etc.

Avoiding LSU  in the quarters would put us in regional best position as they are more dangerous and better than UK.

[AlaskanFAN 1,666]

Bottom line - sweep Bama and Tennessee   takes 2/3 from aTm = #2 seed. 

Florida is already the regular season SEC champs and #1 seed. 

[ellitor 33,091]

4 minutes ago, AlaskanFAN said:

Bottom line - sweep Bama and Tennessee   takes 2/3 from aTm = #2 seed.

Sweeping Bama there is a lot easier said than done but if we do then the Vols only need to win 1 at aTm for us to be the #2 seed.

[OlderWhiskey 953]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Avoiding LSU  in the quarters would put us in regional best position as they are more dangerous and better than UK.

Perhaps true - but KY seems to be improved over the early season.  After dropping series to Ole Miss and UGA early. they have swept Missouri, took a game from Florida, and just won the series vs. Texas A&M.

[steeleagle 2,945]

31 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Sweeping Bama there is a lot easier said than done but if we do then the Vols only need to win 1 at aTm for us to be the #2 seed.

Totally agree. After FL the next 4 teams in this league can beat each other up any given day.

And we are playing on their field. I feel no way we sweep.

I just want that Friday game, then I will feel good about the weekend...

[ellitor 33,091]

21 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Perhaps true - but KY seems to be improved over the early season.  After dropping series to Ole Miss and UGA early. they have swept Missouri, took a game from Florida, and just won the series vs. Texas A&M.

I stand corrected. I still want the #2 seed though.

[mustache eagle 2,398]

I started skimming through this thread thinking it was a baseball thread ... it took me a couple of posts comparing lsu/uk before I finally caught on.  Specifically when it mentioned already having played lsu ... my confusion switched to "oh crap ... this is a softball thread!"

in other words ... baseball has improved!

[boomstick 1,315]

With the Bama loss tonight, we're guaranteed a bye in the SECT. Now, this weekend is all about seeding. 

[35Rem 5]

I hope we get to play Florida for the Tourney Champ, but don't really want to face their Barnhill. She's just about unhitable right now. She made our hitters look silly earlier in the year.

[AU64 10,122]

14 hours ago, boomstick said:

With the Bama loss tonight, we're guaranteed a bye in the SECT. Now, this weekend is all about seeding. 

Amazing loss by bama....their pitcher owned OM for most the game...was in double digit Ks about the 5th inning. ....and bama with an error that should have ended the game and opened the doors to 2 unearned runs and a walk-off slap/bouncer to 3rd that the hitter beat out. 

Not sure which one I would prefer NOT to face the most.......the UF or the bama pitcher....both can be dominating with their rise balls....which has been an issue for AU batters.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 minute ago, AU64 said:

Amazing loss by bama....their pitcher owned OM for most the game...was in double digit Ks about the 5th inning. ....and bama with an error that should have ended the game and opened the doors to 2 unearned runs and a walk-off slap/bouncer to 3rd that the hitter beat out. 

Not sure which one I would prefer NOT to face the most.......the UF or the bama pitcher....both can be dominating with their rise balls....which has been an issue for AU batters.

We've had success against Osorio in the past. Our approach at the plate usually helps against her. She has control issues at times, and we really like to take walks. It's an intriguing matchup because, if she's throwing her secondary pitches for strikes, she's really tough with the rise out of the zone. If she can't locate with consistency, she'll do to us what she did to OM and walk 5-6 batters in 3 innings. She's really tough to square up and hit. So, having and executing a good approach at the plate is super important Friday night. This is one of the few games where I'd rather see us take strikeouts looking than chasing that rise ball she's going to throw late in counts.