Gallup poll shows Bush lead widening

[TitanTiger 20,506]

Bush Bounce Keeps On Going

President leads Kerry by 13 points among likely voters; 8 points among registered voters

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention.

In the immediate aftermath of that convention, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush receiving a modest bounce from his standing before the convention. Among likely voters, Bush's support was up two points and Kerry's was down two points. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Bush's support was up two points, while Kerry's was unchanged. 

The bounce was small, whether measured among the likely or the registered voter groups, so that it was well within the margin of error of the post-convention poll. Given the sample sizes of the two groups, one could not say with 95% certainty that Bush's support had actually increased.

Now, in the new poll, the figures show Bush with a 13-point lead over Kerry among likely voters and an 8-point lead among registered voters. Both sets of figures represent significant increases in Bush's standing in the race since just before the beginning of the Republican convention in late August, when likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a slight three-point margin (50% to 47%), and registered voters leaned toward Kerry by an even smaller margin of one point (48% to 47%)...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13066

Interestingly, a new Pew Research Center poll shows the race at 47-46 for Bush. I think both of these polls are a little off although I'd probably say the Gallup poll is a more historically reliable one.

[Tigermike 3,044]

Mr. Kerry's numbers could be creeping up since his handlers have pretty much kept him quiet and out of sight.

[DKW 86 7,433]

Mr. Kerry's numbers could be creeping up since his handlers have pretty much kept him quiet and out of sight.

He needs to campaign and he is in.....New Mexico?

Sounds like they are keeping him away from the public now.

[TexasTiger 12,969]

Bush Bounce Keeps On Going

President leads Kerry by 13 points among likely voters; 8 points among registered voters

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention.

In the immediate aftermath of that convention, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush receiving a modest bounce from his standing before the convention. Among likely voters, Bush's support was up two points and Kerry's was down two points. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Bush's support was up two points, while Kerry's was unchanged. 

The bounce was small, whether measured among the likely or the registered voter groups, so that it was well within the margin of error of the post-convention poll. Given the sample sizes of the two groups, one could not say with 95% certainty that Bush's support had actually increased.

Now, in the new poll, the figures show Bush with a 13-point lead over Kerry among likely voters and an 8-point lead among registered voters. Both sets of figures represent significant increases in Bush's standing in the race since just before the beginning of the Republican convention in late August, when likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a slight three-point margin (50% to 47%), and registered voters leaned toward Kerry by an even smaller margin of one point (48% to 47%)...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13066

Interestingly, a new Pew Research Center poll shows the race at 47-46 for Bush. I think both of these polls are a little off although I'd probably say the Gallup poll is a more historically reliable one.

Polls are funny. Gallup uses the following breakdown:

Total Sample: 767

GOP: 305 (40%)

Dem: 253 (33%)

Ind: 208 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party IDs – Same Poll

Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 1022

GOP: 381 (38%)

Dem: 336 (33%)

Ind: 298 (30%)

According to Zogby, the actual breakdown in 1996 and 2000 was 39D, 35R and 26I, which is how he weights his polls this year.

[TitanTiger 20,506]

I think Gallup generally weights the various party affiliations too. You'll always get an uneven number of partisans when you take a random survey. As long as you then weight the numbers appropriately, there shouldn't be an issue.

[TexasTiger 12,969]

I think Gallup generally weights the various party affiliations too. You'll always get an uneven number of partisans when you take a random survey. As long as you then weight the numbers appropriately, there shouldn't be an issue.

I'm no polling expert, but my understanding is that some polls weight, some don't, relying on getting an representative distribution.

This professor discusses the issue:

http://www.hs.ttu.edu/hdfs3390/weighting.htm

[Weagle98 119]

Well this one is probably biased too.

Poll: Bush Opens Lead Over Kerry

NEW YORK, Sept. 17, 2004

Bush Maintains Support

(CBS) The contest between President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry looks much as it did in a CBS News Poll conducted last week, after the Republican convention. Bush’s post-convention bounce remains intact, if even slightly larger in this poll; Bush now leads Kerry 50 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, giving the President a 9-point margin.

Bush-Cheney

Now

50%

Kerry-Edwards

Now

41%

CBSNYT Poll

[TexasTiger 12,969]

Well this one is probably biased too.

Poll: Bush Opens Lead Over Kerry

NEW YORK, Sept. 17, 2004

Bush Maintains Support

(CBS) The contest between President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry looks much as it did in a CBS News Poll conducted last week, after the Republican convention. Bush’s post-convention bounce remains intact, if even slightly larger in this poll; Bush now leads Kerry 50 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, giving the President a 9-point margin.

Bush-Cheney

Now

50%

Kerry-Edwards

Now

41%

CBSNYT Poll

Don't know if its "biased" or not. It does say this:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

In most CBS News Polls, Democrats outnumber Republicans among registered voters. Personal identification with a party can change (temporarily or permanently) with events and voting preferences. In many states voters do not register with a party, and individual identification is a matter of choice. In this poll, where the Republicans hold a significant lead in voter preference and more voters hold negative views about Democratic nominee John Kerry, when voters are asked about their partisan identification at the end of the questionnaire, more identify themselves as Republicans. 36 percent say they are Republican, 32 percent Democrats. The percentage that identifies themselves as Democrats in this poll is lower than it has been in CBS News Polls conducted earlier in the year

It either oversampled Republicans or the number of Republicans has gone up significantly and in a hurry. Guess we'll find out in 6 weeks. A few months back an LA Times poll showed Kerry much further ahead than other polls. They were roundly criticized for "oversampling" Democrats. When you call a 1000 folks or so its going to happen both ways from time to time.

[Tigermike 3,044]

Couldn't it be skewed because of people who consider themselves independents but usually vote one way or the other? I am not a member of either party, mainly because I wouldn't want to feel obligated to vote for the party I had joined.

[TexasTiger 12,969]

Couldn't it be skewed because of people who consider themselves independents but usually vote one way or the other? I am not a member of either party, mainly because I wouldn't want to feel obligated to vote for the party I had joined.

I assume you would identify yourself as an independent voting for Bush if asked by a pollster, is that correct?

[Tigermike 3,044]

If talking to a pollster, to identify myself as an independent voting for Bush, would be a correct and honest answer.

[TexasTiger 12,969]

If talking to a pollster, to identify myself as an independent voting for Bush, would be a correct and honest answer.

Then you would be listed as an independent for Bush. Independents may tip it one way or another, but the question raised by comparing different polls is whether the sample reflects the electorate. I don't claim to have the definitive answer.