The road to Hoover

[kbtiger151345162906 0]

There's three weekends left in conference play, we could finish in a range of places from winning the west to missing the sec tournament and ncaa regionals completely.  I am going to focus on us getting to Hoover that is the most important thing, if we take the series against UGA maybe we can start thinking more about winning the west.  Here is our remaining schedule along with the rest of the teams we are competing with.  I expect us to win all games (outside of Vandy, USC, and UF those teams are just sick) so I won't predict our outcomes but Ill do my best to predict the outcomes of other SEC teams.

For the record, LSU and Alabama seem to be playing well, Ole Miss and Arkansas are struggling and State's specialty is winning 1 game a weekend.

Here is the teams we are competing with schedule and the number of wins I expect them to have for each series

Arkansas (10-11)  1 UF, 0 @ USC, 2 Ole Miss    Finish 13-17

Alabama (10-11)  2 LSU, 1 @ AUB, 1 USC        Finish 14-16

Ole Miss (9-12)  1 USC, 2 MSU, 1 @ Ark          Finish 13-17

Miss St (8-13)  3 @ UT, 1 @ Ole Miss, 2 LSU  Finish 14-16

LSU (7-14)        1 Bama, 3 UT, 2 @ 1 MSU        Finish 12-18

So if these teams are competing with us for 4 spots (UF, Vandy, USC, UGA all in).  Our floor would be 13 wins.  We have the tiebreaker over Ole Miss and Arkansas so if we have 13 wins we'll be in.  If we can take 2 from Bama we will have the tie breaker over everyone besides Miss State.

Any chance these games could turn out different, sure.  I think LSU could win the Bama and Miss St series and get to 14 wins.  Any upsets over UF or USC could push teams up the standings.

Will we get to 13 wins?  I sure hope so.  We could win 1, 1, and 2 against UGA, Bama, and Tennessee and be at 13 wins and could still be in.  As you notice I think 15 wins could win the west.  Lets go 6-3 and do this.