Auburn's BCS chances: a closer look at the numbers

[islstLSU 0]

The current AP poll and their vote breakdown is as follows:

............1st...2nd.... 3rd

USC......51.....11......3 = 1608

Auburn...6......29....30 = 1536

OU.........8......25.....32 = 1536

The current Coaches poll and the vote breakdown is as follows:

(Note: guesstimation used in coming up with these numbers, as there are a handful of coaches that do not believe either OU or Auburn is one of the top 3 teams in the nation...USC's numbers are accurate however)

............1st...2nd.... 3rd....4th

USC.......51.......9...... 1.....0 = 1514

OU..........6......26.... 23.....6 = 1435

Auburn....4......26.....27.....4 = 1433

The Best Case Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

...............KM.....JS. ....RB......ST.....PW.... ..WC

USC...........1......1... ....3........1.......1... .....3 = .980

OU.............2......2.. .....1........2.......2.. ......1 = .970

Auburn........3......3... ....2........3.......3... .....2 = .930

The Worst Case Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

...............KM.....JS. ....RB......ST.....PW.... ..WC

USC...........1......1... ....2........2.......2... .....2 = .970

OU.............2......2.. .....1........1.......1.. ......1 = .990

Auburn........3......3... ....3........3.......3... .....3 = .920

The Most Probable Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

...............KM.....JS. ....RB......ST.....PW.... ..WC

USC...........1......1... ....2........1.......2... .....3 = .980

OU.............2......2.. .....1........2.......1.. ......1 = .980

Auburn........3......3... ....3........3.......3... .....2 = .920

What would it take for Auburn to get to #2 in the BCS?

Using the .980/.920 results above, the AP shifting 24 points to Auburn away from OU (37 % of voters), and the Coaches shifting 25 points to Auburn away from OU (41 % of voters) yields the following results:

..............AP....Coach es...Comp

Auburn....1560....1458... .. .920 = .9600 + .9561 + .920 = 2.8361/3 = .9454

OU.........1512.....1410. .... .980 = .9304 + .9246 + .980 = 2.8350/3 = .9450

Remaining games affecting SOS for both teams (affects computer polls):

Auburn Opponents:

UL-Monroe over UL-Lafayette

Tennessee over Vandy

La. Tech over Boise State

La. Tech over Rice

Georgia over Ga. Tech

OU Oppoents:

Bowling Green over Toledo

Houston over Louisville

Oregon over Oregon State

Kansas State over Iowa State

Kansas over Missouri

Nebraska over Colorado

Biggest games are La. Tech over Boise St. and Houston over Louisville, as their computer ratings would go up significantly.

I think Auburn's chances may lie in who OU plays in their CG game. I think OU's best chance is to hope Colorado wins out and finishes 7-4 and it would be a team that OU had not played this year. The worst case is for OU to face a 6-5 Nebraska again. It would be the worst case for the computer polls and also in the minds of the human pollsters. OU could beat Nebraska just as badly as last time and it would basically be overlooked by many voters. Beating a decent Colorado team coming in at 7-4 might be exactly what OU needs to stave off the hard charge by Auburn in the very last week of the season.

Auburn also has an excellent chance at getting a few votes swing their way with an IMPRESSIVE victory over a good Alabama team, and playing them on the road. OU is hurt by playing Baylor, although it is on the road. Auburn must get at least half of the 24/25 vote swing occur after this weekend's games. Voters will be less likely to change their mind in the very last week of the season, although a trouncing of Tennessee will go a long way in doing just that.

__________________

[vatz22au 142]

Nice post, appreciate it!! alot of good info

[Scottie4AU 0]

Allow me to introduce LSU's StatTiger!

Wow....that's some impressive work. Helps me know how to cheer!

GO La Tech!!

[TexasTiger 13,003]

The current AP poll  and their vote breakdown is as follows:

............1st...2nd.... 3rd

USC......51.....11......3 = 1608

Auburn...6......29....30 = 1536

OU.........8......25.....32 = 1536

The current Coaches poll and the vote breakdown is as follows:

(Note: guesstimation used in coming up with these numbers, as there are a handful of coaches that do not believe either OU or Auburn is one of the top 3 teams in the nation...USC's numbers are accurate however)

............1st...2nd.... 3rd....4th

USC.......51.......9...... 1.....0 = 1514

OU..........6......26.... 23.....6 = 1435

Auburn....4......26.....27.....4 = 1433

The Best Case Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

...............KM.....JS. ....RB......ST.....PW.... ..WC

USC...........1......1... ....3........1.......1... .....3 = .980

OU.............2......2.. .....1........2.......2.. ......1 = .970

Auburn........3......3... ....2........3.......3... .....2 = .930

The Worst Case Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

...............KM.....JS. ....RB......ST.....PW.... ..WC

USC...........1......1... ....2........2.......2... .....2 = .970

OU.............2......2.. .....1........1.......1.. ......1 = .990

Auburn........3......3... ....3........3.......3... .....3 = .920

The Most Probable Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

...............KM.....JS. ....RB......ST.....PW.... ..WC

USC...........1......1... ....2........1.......2... .....3 = .980

OU.............2......2.. .....1........2.......1.. ......1 = .980

Auburn........3......3... ....3........3.......3... .....2 = .920

What would it take for Auburn to get to #2 in the BCS?

Using the .980/.920 results above, the AP shifting 24 points to Auburn away from OU (37 % of voters), and the Coaches shifting 25 points to Auburn away from OU (41 % of voters) yields the following results:

..............AP....Coach es...Comp

Auburn....1560....1458... .. .920 = .9600 + .9561 + .920 = 2.8361/3 = .9454

OU.........1512.....1410. .... .980 = .9304 + .9246 + .980 = 2.8350/3 = .9450

Remaining games affecting SOS for both teams (affects computer polls):

Auburn Opponents:

UL-Monroe over UL-Lafayette

Tennessee over Vandy

La. Tech over Boise State

La. Tech over Rice

Georgia over Ga. Tech

OU Oppoents:

Bowling Green over Toledo

Houston over Louisville

Oregon over Oregon State

Kansas State over Iowa State

Kansas over Missouri

Nebraska over Colorado

Biggest games are La. Tech over Boise St. and Houston over Louisville, as their computer ratings would go up significantly.

I think Auburn's chances may lie in who OU plays in their CG game. I think OU's best chance is to hope Colorado wins out and finishes 7-4 and it would be a team that OU had not played this year. The worst case is for OU to face a 6-5 Nebraska again. It would be the worst case for the computer polls and also in the minds of the human pollsters. OU could beat Nebraska just as badly as last time and it would basically be overlooked by many voters. Beating a decent Colorado team coming in at 7-4 might be exactly what OU needs to stave off the hard charge by Auburn in the very last week of the season.

Auburn also has an excellent chance at getting a few votes swing their way with an IMPRESSIVE victory over a good Alabama team, and playing them on the road. OU is hurt by playing Baylor, although it is on the road. Auburn must get at least half of the 24/25 vote swing occur after this weekend's games. Voters will be less likely to change their mind in the very last week of the season, although a trouncing of Tennessee will go a long way in doing just that.

__________________

123952[/snapback]

Thanks for the post.

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

Good post.

Our other road to the national championship and LSU fans will hate this one.

Auburn gets number two in both polls, but the computers take USC and Oklahoma. Michigan/Wisconsin beats Cal in the Rose Bowl (hopefully Michigan because they lost to Notre Dame, making Tenn look better and knocking down the Pac 10).

Auburn gets Texas or Utah in the Sugar and wins convincingly. Texas would be good cause we knock off OU's toughest opponent of the season, Utah we get to rail an undefeated. Oklahoma defeats USC in the Orange Bowl and congrats to them on the BCS championship. Auburns convincing win over Texas keeps the AP from moving OU to number one over Auburn... congrats Auburn on the AP championship. The AP would do this for two reasons, 1) Auburn would be undefeated and the voters would say well Auburn should have played OU and with the Texas win no reason to move OU over them 2) they get to stick it to the BCS. We also get a winning record out of the other SEC bowl teams including match-ups with the Big 12 adding to the statement that Auburn should have been in the Orange.

[islstLSU 0]

Good post.

Our other road to the national championship and LSU fans will hate this one.

Auburn gets number two in both polls, but the computers take USC and Oklahoma.  Michigan/Wisconsin beats Cal in the Rose Bowl (hopefully Michigan because they lost to Notre Dame, making Tenn look better and knocking down the Pac 10).

Auburn gets Texas or Utah in the Sugar and wins convincingly.  Texas would be good cause we knock off OU's toughest opponent of the season, Utah we get to rail an undefeated.  Oklahoma defeats USC in the Orange Bowl and congrats to them on the BCS championship.  Auburns convincing win over Texas keeps the AP from moving OU to number one over Auburn... congrats Auburn on the AP championship. The AP would do this for two reasons, 1) Auburn would be undefeated and the voters would say well Auburn should have played OU and with the Texas win no reason to move OU over them 2) they get to stick it to the BCS.  We also get a winning record out of the other SEC bowl teams including match-ups with the Big 12 adding to the statement that Auburn should have been in the Orange.

123984[/snapback]

This is actually not that far fetched.

AP still sore over OU taking the place of USC in the Sugar last year. They have not forgotten. They could easily scorn OU this year.

NOBODY TELLS THE AP WHAT TO DO! lol

[mcgufcm 4,107]

i don't think it'd have to be that detailed. i think if we move to number two and get left out, all it would take is a win by number three, and we'd get a split championship with a win. i think the ap is that spiteful (or correct, in this case).

[CarolinaTiger 0]

one overlooked stat:

USC loses to ND!!!

go irish!! *cough cough*

[GoAU 1,600]

one overlooked stat:

USC loses to ND!!!

go irish!! *cough cough*

123998[/snapback]

I know I'll be pulling for the Irish - BIG TIME!

[islstLSU 0]

one overlooked stat:

USC loses to ND!!!

go irish!! *cough cough*

123998[/snapback]

I know I'll be pulling for the Irish - BIG TIME!

123999[/snapback]

Notre Dame doesn't have the horses (trojans of course).

[Tigermike 3,051]

So then if:

Toledo beats Bowling Green

Louisville beats Houston (Petrino could help AU afterall)

Oregon State beats Oregon

Iowa State beats Kansas State

Missouri beats Kansas

Colorado beats Nebraska

it would be good for AUBURN?

GO ROCKETS ! ! !

GO Cardinals ! ! ! !

GO Beavers ! ! ! !

GO Cyclones ! ! ! !

GO Tigers ! ! ! !

GO Buffaloes ! ! !

And if:

UL-Monroe beats UL-Lafayette .....GO INDIANS !!!

Tennessee beats Vandy ............GO VOLS ! ! !

La. Tech beats Boise State........GO BULLDOGS !!!!!

La. Tech beats Rice...............GO BULLDOGS !!!!!

Georgia beats Ga. Tech............GO BULLDOGS !!!!!

Also

GO BAYLOR ! !!!!!

GO NOTRE DAME!!!!

GO UCLA !!!!!!

Thanks islstLSU, now we all know who to pull for.

But of course AUBURN must win out. I hope your Tigers win out as well.

[quietfan 233]

Showing my ignorance here...

I thought the BCS was based on equal parts 1/3 AP + 1/3 Coaches, + 1/3 Computer. Then wouldn't being undisputed, untied #2 in any two of the three automatically send a team to the Orange Bowl? If so, we just need to sway a single AP vote and a very tiny number of coaches (a few coaches have already promised their vote if we win out through the SECCG), and then screw the computers.

Obviously it must not be this simple or people wouldn't be delving into the numbers so deeply...so where have I gone wrong?

Or, on second thought, don't worry about it until tomorrow--we've got much more important issues in Tuscaloosa for the rest of today! WAR EAGLE! BEAT BAMA!

(...and for what it's worth: Go Bayler)

[Raven_tiger 5]

Nice post islstLSU!

Pull hard for the Fighting Irish.

[quietfan 233]

Nevermind-I think I just answered my own question:

It's like two students competing on three equal weight tests. If I have grades of 80. 80, and 60 while he scores 75, 75, and 90, I beat him on two tests but he has the best overall average, right?

Oh well...again... GO AUBURN!! BEAT BAMA!!

[eibua12 81]

I could happen doubtful but could.

OU and AU tie for the BCS #2! What then?

[islstLSU 0]

I could happen doubtful but could.

OU and AU tie for the BCS #2!  What then?

124131[/snapback]

Stoops and Tubberville have to mud wrestle for it.

Because they round at 4 decimals, I do not think there is any way possible for a tie. There are 1525 points to be had in the Coaches and 1625 in the AP. If there were equal number of points in each, then you could have a tie.

[islstLSU 0]

So then if:

Toledo beats Bowling Green

Louisville beats Houston  (Petrino could help AU afterall)

Oregon State beats Oregon

Iowa State beats Kansas State

Missouri beats Kansas

Colorado beats Nebraska

it would be good for AUBURN?

GO ROCKETS ! ! !

GO Cardinals ! ! ! !

GO Beavers ! ! ! !

GO Cyclones ! ! ! !

GO Tigers ! ! ! !

GO Buffaloes ! ! !

And if:

UL-Monroe beats UL-Lafayette .....GO INDIANS !!!

Tennessee beats Vandy ............GO VOLS ! ! !

La. Tech beats Boise State........GO BULLDOGS !!!!!

La. Tech beats Rice...............GO BULLDOGS !!!!!

Georgia beats Ga. Tech............GO BULLDOGS !!!!!

Also

GO BAYLOR ! !!!!!

GO NOTRE DAME!!!!

GO UCLA !!!!!!

Thanks islstLSU, now we all know who to pull for. 

But of course AUBURN must win out.  I hope your Tigers win out as well.

124061[/snapback]

Yes, if most of that happened, then I think the BEST CASE SCENARIO regarding the computer polls would take place, namely OU=.970 and AU=.930. This would be significant as Auburn would have to only have to swing about 17 points their way instead of 24/25 from the human polls.

Tennesse's loss to Notre Dame is the single most damaging game regarding Auburn's hopes at #2 in the BCS. Had Tennessee won that game, then Auburn would be looking at no worse than .930 and maybe as high as .960 in the computer polls. Also, regarding the human polls, playing a 1 loss Tennessee ranked #5/#6 in the nation versus a 2 loss #13/#14 ranked team in the SEC CG is a major difference.