4 star OG/OT Braden Smith

[The Plainsman 948]

FWIW, I think we get all three.

Nice Bird! Thanks!!

[chimesAU 89]

FWIW, I think we get all three.

Whoa now...you've gotta make it a lot more convoluted than that. I want to see percentages, charts, graphs, probabilities...the whole nine yards. If I can't understand what you're saying then that makes it sound much more scientific; therefore, more reasonable.

[au75 75]

THE BIRD knows........he rides shotgun on the GUS bus.

[mustache eagle 2,412]

Some you guys make me embarrassed to be in a math based career like engineering ... Please for the love of all that is holy, stop the madness!!!!!!

[ellitor 33,114]

E, that is pretty close to what I am saying.

Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%.

If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting.

Evans = 95%

Smith =38%

Andrews=88%

Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close.

Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768%

Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please?

Lin Dif EQ FTW!

Evans = 95%

Williams = 85%

Smith = 75%

There, now the 60% thing works (or roughly 60.5%, rather)

Yes, but with independent events, how are you accounting for standard deviation and to what are you normalizing the numbers to? jk

Lol. Honestly at this point in the game, percentages are even more dubious than they normally are as I am pretty sure all three of these kids have all but made up their minds at this point. We just don't know the outcome yet, a la Schrodinger's cat.

E's equation assumes that the trio of changes/calculations are all equal. Since the odds are showing that we get 2 or the 3. we get two thirds. 2/3 =66%.

Using E's formula, he is equating all of the candidates as having an equal chance of committing. He applies this overall summation to all of the candidates equally. Mathematically, he is correct in his summations, but if we get two of the three using his calculations, we had achieved a 62% (dropping the decimal point). That is pretty close to my original 60% (allowing for some variance).

I firmly believe we get two out of the three. If we get all three (which I would love), moot point. However, I stand by my belief that we will get at least two out of the three or 60-66% change of getting them all.

Depends on which 2. based on the percents. Evans and Williams would be 95% * 88%=83.6%. Evans and Smith are 95% * 38%=36.1%. Williams and Smith would be 88% * 38%=33.4%

[ellitor 33,114]

Some you guys make me embarrassed to be in a math based career like engineering ... Please for the love of all that is holy, stop the madness!!!!!!

Am I doing something wrong? lol

[DivisionN 102]

FWIW, I think we get all three.

That would be rather nice.

[Dixie1860 27]

FWIW, I think we get all three.

That would be rather nice.

Look at the two buddies. Ahhh. I agree Bird with the prediction. I think we have an outside shot at flipping one of two guys. Harris or Godchaux. No idea which. Would be great if we closed with those 5.

[Dixie1860 27]

Some you guys make me embarrassed to be in a math based career like engineering ... Please for the love of all that is holy, stop the madness!!!!!!

Am I doing something wrong? lol

Would imply that the answer is quantifiable. Not the case here.

[Martinisat5 5]

Can we go back to something I know like BBQ?

[Tiger Scout 92]

not looking good for auburn here no one is picking us plus he had a good visit to tcu. but its hard to get a read on him he doesn't say much

[EagleDamnWar 0]

not looking good for auburn here no one is picking us plus he had a good visit to tcu. but its hard to get a read on him he doesn't say much

Except 11 of past crystal ball predictions to Auburn.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

not looking good for auburn here no one is picking us plus he had a good visit to tcu. but its hard to get a read on him he doesn't say much

No one, outside of coaching staffs and people VERY close to Braden, has a clue what he's going to do. He's not talking to friends, teammates, or anyone else. Even his school administration has no clue what he is thinking as they prepare to be invaded by ESPN (though his principal did tell us that he will become an Auburn fan if Braden picks AU). So a lot of the national prognosticators are just guessing, and probably leaning heavily on the fact that AU came late to the party, when they are picking other schools.

At least our insiders are relaying what our staff feels is happening, which carries more weight, in this case, in my opinion.

[gravejd 3,270]

We sure have been good at plucking far away OL propects the last couple of years. I hope the trend continues with Braden!

[tiger88 934]

We sure have been good at plucking far away OL propects the last couple of years. I hope the trend continues with Braden!

GR leaving as a RS sophomore and projected early first round can't hurt either.

[AubTiger14 0]

TCU's lack of message board activity is making it really hard for me to have any kind of feeling on Smith from the other side. Killer Frogs is barely even mentioning him. One poster claimed that Braden came to his house on his OV. All he said was Braden liked the campus and was wanting to go out and see the girls. One poster said Auburn would be stiff competition if it came down to the best looking girls, which I liked.

Most of their activity was dealing with other prospects, which is odd considering Smith would be by far the highest rated player in their class if he committed to TCU. The few posters that did mention him think they are in good shape, but didn't really seem to have information or anything.

None of that is really important, but I thought it was at least worth mentioning.

[GenesChin 9]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

[JFDTiger80 790]

I hope we land Braden. He is our new Prosch or Popeye.

[AU64 10,122]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

Who was saying that?

AU's staff was busting their butts just get him to make the OV and had very little contact prior to that. After the OV, every supposed "insider" was saying that they did not know how he felt since he gave no post OV interview.

Lions comment above about sums up the situation at this moment. There is nothing to back up the comment noted above.

I hope Smith comes here...but either way, I commend him and his family for the way they have handled the recruitment process.

[ellitor 33,114]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

Who was saying that?

AU's staff was busting their butts just get him to make the OV and had very little contact prior to that. After the OV, every supposed "insider" was saying that they did not know how he felt since he gave no post OV interview.

Lions comment above about sums up the situation at this moment. There is nothing to back up the comment noted above.

I hope Smith comes here...but either way, I commend him and his family for the way they have handled the recruitment process.

This is all incorrect.The staff did not have to bust it's arse to get Braden to OV. We put out feellers and Braden showed good interest. Also the AU side, especially the staff has been optimistic since the OV.

[AU64 10,122]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

Who was saying that?

AU's staff was busting their butts just get him to make the OV and had very little contact prior to that. After the OV, every supposed "insider" was saying that they did not know how he felt since he gave no post OV interview.

Lions comment above about sums up the situation at this moment. There is nothing to back up the comment noted above.

I hope Smith comes here...but either way, I commend him and his family for the way they have handled the recruitment process.

This is all incorrect.The staff did not have to bust it's arse to get Braden to OV. We put out feellers and Braden showed good interest. Also the AU side, especially the staff has been optimistic since the OV.

Maybe it's a matter of interpretation but you might want to go back to the start of this thread and while he had an "offer" as of late December, check even some of your own comments, Smith was mostly and unknown to this Board at the end of the year when the campaign began to sign him. ...and that was not too many days before the OV. Until then, TCU seemed to be in the lead and there was a question if we could get him to come for an OV.

Again maybe it's interpretation but read the entire thread and from the start AU had a hill to climb to get this guy....and he never was a slam dunk...or "ours to lose".

[aucanucktiger 1,798]

Rival's lists every school "medium" interest and they don't even know Braden's point recruiter(s) from Auburn or TCU. Reps for Texas A&M and Notre Dame are the only ones listed. Looks like they're in the dark along with the rest of us.

[ellitor 33,114]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

Who was saying that?

AU's staff was busting their butts just get him to make the OV and had very little contact prior to that. After the OV, every supposed "insider" was saying that they did not know how he felt since he gave no post OV interview.

Lions comment above about sums up the situation at this moment. There is nothing to back up the comment noted above.

I hope Smith comes here...but either way, I commend him and his family for the way they have handled the recruitment process.

This is all incorrect.The staff did not have to bust it's arse to get Braden to OV. We put out feellers and Braden showed good interest. Also the AU side, especially the staff has been optimistic since the OV.

Maybe it's a matter of interpretation but you might want to go back to the start of this thread and while he had an "offer" as of late December, check even some of your own comments, Smith was mostly and unknown to this Board at the end of the year when the campaign began to sign him. ...and that was not too many days before the OV. Until then, TCU seemed to be in the lead and there was a question if we could get him to come for an OV.

Again maybe it's interpretation but read the entire thread and from the start AU had a hill to climb to get this guy....and he never was a slam dunk...or "ours to lose".

Publicly there was question if we could get him to OV but privately the staff knew they would get an OV when they got his initial interest. As for the ours to lose part after the AU OV, Chin has connections to the program. If he says people on the AU side felt he was ours to lose then that's for the most part how they felt. From what I know it may be over stating a little but only semantically.

[AU64 10,122]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

Who was saying that?

AU's staff was busting their butts just get him to make the OV and had very little contact prior to that. After the OV, every supposed "insider" was saying that they did not know how he felt since he gave no post OV interview.

Lions comment above about sums up the situation at this moment. There is nothing to back up the comment noted above.

I hope Smith comes here...but either way, I commend him and his family for the way they have handled the recruitment process.

This is all incorrect.The staff did not have to bust it's arse to get Braden to OV. We put out feellers and Braden showed good interest. Also the AU side, especially the staff has been optimistic since the OV.

Maybe it's a matter of interpretation but you might want to go back to the start of this thread and while he had an "offer" as of late December, check even some of your own comments, Smith was mostly and unknown to this Board at the end of the year when the campaign began to sign him. ...and that was not too many days before the OV. Until then, TCU seemed to be in the lead and there was a question if we could get him to come for an OV.

Again maybe it's interpretation but read the entire thread and from the start AU had a hill to climb to get this guy....and he never was a slam dunk...or "ours to lose".

Publicly there was question if we could get him to OV but privately the staff knew they would get an OV when they got his initial interest. As for the ours to lose part after the AU OV, Chin has connections to the program. If he says people on the AU side felt he was ours to lose then that's for the most part how they felt. From what I know it may be over stating a little but only semantically.

My original comment referenced the idea he was "Auburn's to lose" which I questioned.

I don't think any kid from Kansas, Colorado,, Oklahoma or Texas for example is AU's to lose and IMO the coaching staff has done a very good job putting AU into the final mix. Since Chiz and Gus got on the scene, AUburn has done a good job of shaking the bushes to attract the interest of talented players from some distant locations. It should not go unnoticed that Bama's five 5* commits are all from different states...and I'm happy that AU has branched out with it's recruiting efforts too.

I'm hoping the big guy selects Auburn tomorrow ...but if he decides to go elsewhere, I still appreciate the work done to bring Auburn to his attention and give him the opportunity to attend school here. That kind of work will pay dividends in the future.

[Tiger Scout 92]

Going into his OV this weekend, Smith was Auburn's to lose, or at least that was the feeling from people on Auburn's side

Who was saying that?

AU's staff was busting their butts just get him to make the OV and had very little contact prior to that. After the OV, every supposed "insider" was saying that they did not know how he felt since he gave no post OV interview.

Lions comment above about sums up the situation at this moment. There is nothing to back up the comment noted above.

I hope Smith comes here...but either way, I commend him and his family for the way they have handled the recruitment process.

This is all incorrect.The staff did not have to bust it's arse to get Braden to OV. We put out feellers and Braden showed good interest. Also the AU side, especially the staff has been optimistic since the OV.

Maybe it's a matter of interpretation but you might want to go back to the start of this thread and while he had an "offer" as of late December, check even some of your own comments, Smith was mostly and unknown to this Board at the end of the year when the campaign began to sign him. ...and that was not too many days before the OV. Until then, TCU seemed to be in the lead and there was a question if we could get him to come for an OV.

Again maybe it's interpretation but read the entire thread and from the start AU had a hill to climb to get this guy....and he never was a slam dunk...or "ours to lose".

Publicly there was question if we could get him to OV but privately the staff knew they would get an OV when they got his initial interest. As for the ours to lose part after the AU OV, Chin has connections to the program. If he says people on the AU side felt he was ours to lose then that's for the most part how they felt. From what I know it may be over stating a little but only semantically.

My original comment referenced the idea he was "Auburn's to lose" which I questioned.

I don't think any kid from Kansas, Colorado,, Oklahoma or Texas for example is AU's to lose and IMO the coaching staff has done a very good job putting AU into the final mix. Since Chiz and Gus got on the scene, AUburn has done a good job of shaking the bushes to attract the interest of talented players from some distant locations. It should not go unnoticed that Bama's five 5* commits are all from different states...and I'm happy that AU has branched out with it's recruiting efforts too.

I'm hoping the big guy selects Auburn tomorrow ...but if he decides to go elsewhere, I still appreciate the work done to bring Auburn to his attention and give him the opportunity to attend school here. That kind of work will pay dividends in the future.

actually 1 of the 5 stars are from Alabama marlon Humphrey