autan 750 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You're right E!! Didn't know you were a Math major or did get that from Stat Tiger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,114 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You're right E!! Didn't know you were a Math major or did get that from Stat Tiger? I'm a poker player and completely bust the curve on the probability part of Business Cal 2 with a 105 average. Many in the class hated me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoALtiger 3,873 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You're right E!! Didn't know you were a Math major or did get that from Stat Tiger? I'm a poker player and completely bust the curve on the probability part of Business Cal 2 with a 105 average. Many in the class hated me. No, say it ain't so E! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bikeriderga 134 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 13,006 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You're right E!! Didn't know you were a Math major or did get that from Stat Tiger? I'm a poker player and completely bust the curve on the probability part of Business Cal 2 with a 105 average. Many in the class hated me. That was you!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
douggwilliams 61 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Could be a good morning for auburn!!! Oh it will be. It will be! R Evans, B Smith, and A Williams will all three be signing with Auburn you can bank on it. There should also be one or two more surprises in store. Don't bank on anything in recruiting...but the odds look good. See, I would just quote Han and say "never tell me the odds" and leave it alone. And now I feel like a dumb as* because there was much bigger thinking going on in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,114 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wareagletd 0 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Burn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbird 60,580 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
autan 750 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Everything's 50/50 according to gospel of Pat Dye. Seriously I feel a little better now that KN has flipped his Crystal Ball to AU. I thought Keith would probably wait until after the TCU visit, say on Sunday or Mon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoALtiger 3,873 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUenginerd 16 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please? Lin Dif EQ FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dixie1860 27 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm gonna go out on a limb and bet that there were some lonely weekends for some during their scholastic careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnArch13 185 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please? Lin Dif EQ FTW! Evans = 95% Williams = 85% Smith = 75% There, now the 60% thing works (or roughly 60.5%, rather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C'viewTiger 242 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please? Lin Dif EQ FTW! Evans = 95% Williams = 85% Smith = 75% There, now the 60% thing works (or roughly 60.5%, rather) Yes, but with independent events, how are you accounting for standard deviation and to what are you normalizing the numbers to? jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trout54 55 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 nerds.............................. and I love math. just don't recall ever talking about it over football. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnArch13 185 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please? Lin Dif EQ FTW! Evans = 95% Williams = 85% Smith = 75% There, now the 60% thing works (or roughly 60.5%, rather) Yes, but with independent events, how are you accounting for standard deviation and to what are you normalizing the numbers to? jk Lol. Honestly at this point in the game, percentages are even more dubious than they normally are as I am pretty sure all three of these kids have all but made up their minds at this point. We just don't know the outcome yet, a la Schrodinger's cat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GenesChin 9 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Braden Smith is a curious case as he is so tight lipped. Obviously there are the reports about his HS coach riding Gus/Auburn's jock but most of the positive AU feeling stems from the relationship Grimes has with Smith and his family as well as how he acted on the trip to Auburn. People truly felt that if NSD was the Monday after he left, he would have signed with Auburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilligas 581 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I read that he initially contacted Auburn to express his interest. Also that he's declined over 50 schools. Says a lot about AU and our coaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
austudnt23 1,432 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We are looking good to sign Smith Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyler97 14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We are looking good to sign Smith Wednesday. Good to hear it! I'm pretty sure about Evans, so Smith was the one I was worried out since our whole OL will be leaving in a year or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plainsman 948 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Evans , Smith, Williams just let this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUbritt 611 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We are looking good to sign Smith Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bikeriderga 134 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 E, that is pretty close to what I am saying. Odds are we will get two out of the three. Getting all three is about 60%. If we look at the 247 Crystal Balls, that is pretty close to what the so called experts are predicting. Evans = 95% Smith =38% Andrews=88% Average these predictions up, and rounding up, 60% is pretty darn close. Averaging is not the correct method for finding probability of 3 independent events. The simplest accurate method for determining prob of independent events occurring is multiplying the %s together if you have %s. In this case 95% * 88% * 38%=31.768% Ok, I'm impressed now. Can somebody fire up a quadratic equation for us please? Lin Dif EQ FTW! Evans = 95% Williams = 85% Smith = 75% There, now the 60% thing works (or roughly 60.5%, rather) Yes, but with independent events, how are you accounting for standard deviation and to what are you normalizing the numbers to? jk Lol. Honestly at this point in the game, percentages are even more dubious than they normally are as I am pretty sure all three of these kids have all but made up their minds at this point. We just don't know the outcome yet, a la Schrodinger's cat. E's equation assumes that the trio of changes/calculations are all equal. Since the odds are showing that we get 2 or the 3. we get two thirds. 2/3 =66%. Using E's formula, he is equating all of the candidates as having an equal chance of committing. He applies this overall summation to all of the candidates equally. Mathematically, he is correct in his summations, but if we get two of the three using his calculations, we had achieved a 62% (dropping the decimal point). That is pretty close to my original 60% (allowing for some variance). I firmly believe we get two out of the three. If we get all three (which I would love), moot point. However, I stand by my belief that we will get at least two out of the three or 60-66% change of getting them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbird 60,580 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 FWIW, I think we get all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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