Final Four Speculation before the Committee speaks?

[quietfan 233]

Started to post this in the OSU-Whisky thread, but realized it was a broader, more general subject. Face it , we're all wondering in our heads what the Committee will do, so why not talk about it? Idle speculation before the rankings come out, anyone?

First of all, if I had to pick the three teams I most despise these days, they would be, in order, UAT-FSU-OSU. Thank the Almighty that USCw and/or UGa aren't also in contention or I might have a stroke. But moving on:

........................................

Glad I'm not on the Committee!

It will be hard to demote TCU--I mean, it'd be hard to demote anyone with a 52-point victory over a member of a Power-5 conference, even if it was 2-10 Iowa St.

However, Ohio State had an even bigger win, in a conference championship game, over a much stronger opponent.

And then there's the third shoe to drop:

FSU only beat Georgia Tech by 2. Hard to leave the only 12-0 team in a Power-5 Conference out of the playoffs, especially if they've been in the top 4 all year, but they haven't looked dominating in several weeks and certainly didn't have the games TCU or OSU had today. Could they have beaten TCU or OSU today? (And if the Committee is supposed to also consider factors such as player injuries/absences, will the so-far unreleased ruling in the Jameis Student Conduct case influence them?)

And is there a case to be made for 1-loss Baylor after they handled a very strong Big 12 opponent in KSU...and gave TCU their one loss?

In any case, looks like Bama and Oregon are in. If I had my druthers, I'd hope it's TCU & Oregon embarrassing the Turds and the Criminoles in the semifinals. But the only thing I'm sure of right now is:

I'm a Ducks fan until January 13th!

[AUFlyer99 647]

War Damn Ducks.

I'd love to see that as a first round matchup on the left coast. Turd fans are conceited to the point they'll stay home thinking they'll be in the final automatically.

Somehow I think the bastards will go all the way though.

[quietfan 233]

War Damn Ducks.

I'd love to see that as a first round matchup on the left coast. Turd fans are conceited to the point they'll stay home thinking they'll be in the final automatically.

Somehow I think the bastards will go all the way though.

I guess, assuming the top four remain as they were before today, I'd go with FSU embarrassing uat in a semi-final*, and then the Ducks embarrassing FSU in the finals.

*Not that I have ANY affection for FSU, but after all the Bammer's taunts about us "choking" in the BSCCG last January I'd like to see uat do even worse. We gave FSU the best game of any opponent last year, and beat the point spread in both that game and the Iron Bowl. The Turds, meanwhile, didn't cover in either the Iron Bowl or the Sugar Bowl.

(...went into the Sugar Bowl a 2-TD favorite and lost by 2 TD's, but they have the audacity to say WE choked by beating the point spread, giving FSU their toughest game of the year, and leading into the last minute?!?).

Then it would be nice to see the team we beat in 2010 beat the Criminoles.

[PatBoCamRob 30]

I'd love to see a UAT vs Oregon final. I don't think Alabama can beat Oregon. Would be a nice "reap what you sow" game. With all those "Roll Ducks" shirts and "we win when we play for MNC" comments.

[bigbird 60,577]

I think the 4 should be

1. Oregon

2.bama

3.baylor

4. OSU

At the end of the season, these are the 4 best teams, imo. Its tough leaving tcu out, but I think, right now, Baylor is a much better team and both Baylor and OSU are better than fsu.

[cooltigger21 0]

Definitely a duck fan this go around

It's going to be bama, FSU, Oregon and TCU I think.

[AU-HANDLEY-TIGER 205]

I think the following

Updykes

Criminoles

Oregon

TCU edges out Ohio St (Va Tech loss cost them big)

Come on Horned Frogs!!!!!!!!

[AU64 10,122]

Gonna be hard to keep an undefeated FSU team out....defending national champion, etc....

So that leaves it beween OSU and TCU and I bet the Big 10 wins out. Looks like Wisky put another team in the playoff this season like they did for AU....except for the opposite reason.

Hate to say it, but not many teams could be down to their 3rd QB at this point in the season and still romp in their conference championship game like OSU...

[cooltigger21 0]

The fact that the Big 12 won't break the tie between Baylor and TCU could cost them a playoff spot. The conference championship aspect of this necessitates a single champion from your conference.

[80Tiger 899]

I just don't see how you make a change on this last weekend. All of the top four did what they needed to. FSU is undefeated and defending champ. They should be in. TCU did everything they needed to yesterday. Committee has no justification for changes now. They would be ripped.

[AU64 10,122]

The fact that the Big 12 won't break the tie between Baylor and TCU could cost them a playoff spot. The conference championship aspect of this necessitates a single champion from your conference.

Yep...they've lobbied all season about 9 games and such but when the league ends in a tie, the committee is not going to make the decision for them. Bet next year the Big 12 will do something different if they get left out this year. And anyway, who would give credence to a conference called Big 12 with only ten teams?

[cooltigger21 0]

I just don't see how you make a change on this last weekend. All of the top four did what they needed to. FSU is undefeated and defending champ. They should be in. TCU did everything they needed to yesterday. Committee has no justification for changes now. They would be ripped.

This weekend, the conference championship part of the equation comes into play. The question is how is the committee going to handle the big 12 situation where two teams share the crown?

[GBAU83 212]

Haven't compared the final resumes of OSU/TCU/BU, but easy move for committee is to take the "one true conference champion" (OSU) since Big 12 is calling TCU/BU co-champions. Kinda like the old mantra of if you have two QBs, you have none - if you have 2 conference champs, you have none. I personally think TCU should be in as the better team overall. But tough to argue the head-to-head with Baylor. ESPN showed something that gave the edge overall to TCU (# top wins; SOS etc...) But they did not do a similar for OSU - would be interesting to see the three compared and I expect the show to do just that today in explanation of their decision.

Also, remember the whole point of this is to MAKE MONEY - why do you think the committee set up last week by dropping FSU to #4? Tide-FSU in Sugar Bowl and Oregon-TCU in Rose sure sells more tickets than if Oregon having to travel to New Orleans or FSU going to California. So you can expect Bama-Oregon to remain in top 2 to set up home team for the respective semifinal locations. OSU would fit to either location, but FSU would be better fit (for ticket sells) in the Sugar. So I think the rankings remain the same and committee says all great teams, all won impressively at the end but TCU had better overall wins that Baylor and a better loss than OSU.

In either case, as stated earlier by another poster - War Damn Ducks!

[HarpyTrain 1]

I just don't see how anyone can just "forget" or discount a loss, at home, to a very mediocre team with one of the worst offenses in college footbal. AND that team also happened to score the MOST points in a game all year against OSU. There is NO reason to believe ANY B1G team would win a game in the playoff; NONE. Literally, they ALL lost big OOC games, so why even bother? And this whole mantra about "BIg 12 doesn't play a championship game so it weakens the schedule" is a garbage argument. FSU beating Ga Tech in a "championship game" is no different that FSU beating Ga Tech at any other point in the season. The only caveat is that the SEC and ACC both play 8 conference games so if you go to the championship game you play 9 conference games. Well guess what? ALL of the Big 12 conference teams ALL play 9 conference games :-\ And after all the quotes on EVERY website about Mizzou not being the best team in the East, then you cant say that a conference championship game is a matchup of the best teams in the conference (hello 7-5 Wisconsin in the rose bowl a couple of years ago ). Overall TCU played the schedule the league gave them. They won the majority of their games in convincing fashion and by larger margins of victory than Baylor over similar opponents. Yes TCU lost to Baylor, at Baylor. They had one bad quarter against THE HIGHEST SCORING OFFENSE in the country and lost by 3. Baylor LOST by 2 TD's to WVA and OSU LOST bu 2 TD's to Va Tech AT HOME. But like GBAU83 said; its about $$$ and its a popularity contest really. The one thing Baylor/TCU have going for them are the eyeballs in the state of Texas. Other than that, I expect the committee to put OSU in because its OSU. :-\

[cooltigger21 0]

I just don't see how anyone can just "forget" or discount a loss, at home, to a very mediocre team with one of the worst offenses in college footbal. AND that team also happened to score the MOST points in a game all year against OSU. There is NO reason to believe ANY B1G team would win a game in the playoff; NONE. Literally, they ALL lost big OOC games, so why even bother? And this whole mantra about "BIg 12 doesn't play a championship game so it weakens the schedule" is a garbage argument. FSU beating Ga Tech in a "championship game" is no different that FSU beating Ga Tech at any other point in the season. The only caveat is that the SEC and ACC both play 8 conference games so if you go to the championship game you play 9 conference games. Well guess what? ALL of the Big 12 conference teams ALL play 9 conference games :-\ And after all the quotes on EVERY website about Mizzou not being the best team in the East, then you cant say that a conference championship game is a matchup of the best teams in the conference (hello 7-5 Wisconsin in the rose bowl a couple of years ago ). Overall TCU played the schedule the league gave them. They won the majority of their games in convincing fashion and by larger margins of victory than Baylor over similar opponents. Yes TCU lost to Baylor, at Baylor. They had one bad quarter against THE HIGHEST SCORING OFFENSE in the country and lost by 3. Baylor LOST by 2 TD's to WVA and OSU LOST bu 2 TD's to Va Tech AT HOME. But like GBAU83 said; its about $$$ and its a popularity contest really. The one thing Baylor/TCU have going for them are the eyeballs in the state of Texas. Other than that, I expect the committee to put OSU in because its OSU. :-\

If the big 12 would say that because of head to head, or some other tie breaker, that one team is it's champion it would help their case a lot. The committee may just say the heck with it and go with OSU and avoid the headache of trying to choose between TCU and Baylor.

[AUbritt 611]

I think the 4 should be

1. Oregon

2.bama

3.baylor

4. OSU

At the end of the season, these are the 4 best teams, imo. Its tough leaving tcu out, but I think, right now, Baylor is a much better team and both Baylor and OSU are better than fsu.

I wouldn't put tOSU above FSU. I think FSU beats them pretty handily if they were to face each other.

That said, I suspect the Committee will keep FSU and put in tOSU. I think the Big12 messed itself up. There is no way that the Committee can justify TCU over Baylor at this point, unless they make a real joke out of head to head. TCU and Baylor will essentially split the Big12's votes, and tOSU will get in ahead of them.

My prediction:

1. Bama

2. Oregon

3. FSU

4. tOSU

I'm not saying these are the 4 best teams, just that this is what I expect the final 4 to be.

[AU-HANDLEY-TIGER 205]

If TCU is left out the BIG 12 will ask the NCAA to allow a championship game with only 10 teams, this would definitely be unfair to other conferences since it would give BIG 12 teams more bye weeks as compared to other conferences.

[AU64 10,122]

If TCU is left out the BIG 12 will ask the NCAA to allow a championship game with only 10 teams, this would definitely be unfair to other conferences since it would give BIG 12 teams more bye weeks as compared to other conferences.

Well the Big 12 could start by actually having 12 teams in the conference....and I guess as noted above, they could declare their champion by some means that they establish and not put the burden on the Playoff Committee. Both TCU and Baylor can make a good case for being the conference champion I guess but as yet...they are still co-champions.

[Mikey 16,671]

I don't really have a preference for the fourth team, other than I despise Urban Crier.

Now, however, and AHEM: Were the BCS still in effect the championship game would be #1 FSU vs. #2 UAT and the griping would have been minimal. (remember, the BCS formula severely punished teams for each loss. bammer's strength of schedule would get them in.)

What the four team playoff has done is reduce the qualifications needed to get "in" and the controversy rages. Water down the qualifications even more with an 8-team playoff and the howling will increase algebraically, not mathematically.

I like the current setup better than the BCS, but those who claimed a playoff would reduce controversy missed the mark by a mile.

[eibua12 81]

If TCU is left out the BIG 12 will ask the NCAA to allow a championship game with only 10 teams, this would definitely be unfair to other conferences since it would give BIG 12 teams more bye weeks as compared to other conferences.

Well the Big 12 could start by actually having 12 teams in the conference....and I guess as noted above, they could declare their champion by some means that they establish and not put the burden on the Playoff Committee. Both TCU and Baylor can make a good case for being the conference champion I guess but as yet...they are still co-champions.

Conference Champ is one of the 4 items used to make a selection it is not a requirement! TCU is 3.5 to OSU .5 in the requirement categories (TCU shared a title that shoudl be considered .5) regardless they win the other categories outright.

You then drop down to Key Injuries and albeit OSU did stomp WIsky they did it without passing the ball and Oregon, TCU, FSU, Baylor are NOT Wisky just saying

[looney 794]

I see a post above about where we'd be if this were still the BCS era.

What about the flip side: if we'd been given 8 teams in a playoff?

Haven't looked at last week's rankings and those results. Anyone?

Edit: Okay. Just took a look. At first blush, that would keep both TCU and Baylor in, plus tOSU, Mich. St. And Miss St./Ole Miss.

[around4ever 4,139]

1. uat

2. Oregon

3. Ohio State

4. fsu

5. TCU

6. Baylor