Obama’s Cuba Surprise

[AUUSN 823]

The cuban government was getting close to losing the means to sustain itself financially. The Venezuelans have been their major benefactor since the fall of the Soviet Union. They are on the verge of financial and political collapse. Well here comes Obama to the rescue, providing all sorts of goodies and an new influx of money to continue propping up the Castro Regime. Nice move.

Holy crap this forum is pure entertainment. Have we not learned anything from Afghanistan and Syria? Let Cuba become a completely failed state and a complete humanitarian crises arise right here in our own hemisphere before we lift a finger to do anything. Pure gold entertainment!

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

ct....I think you are right but that's JMHO. But I have heard several people on TV who are "expert" on Cuba saying similar things especially about the impact of losing support from Venezuela. It seems to be mixed bag but you can bet the Castros didn't agree to something that didn't benefit them.

[homersapien 11,371]

Well homie, if you think this move is going to expedite things you are out of your everloving mind. I don't give a rip if it takes a hundred years, there is no good reason to do this. You guys were the ones that didn't want to confront the Russians and went ape sh*t batty when Reagan called them the evil empire. What is it about liberals that makes you want to surrender in the face of our enemies? You never want to confront anyone.

Crazy talk.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

Well homie, if you think this move is going to expedite things you are out of your everloving mind. I don't give a rip if it takes a hundred years, there is no good reason to do this. You guys were the ones that didn't want to confront the Russians and went ape sh*t batty when Reagan called them the evil empire. What is it about liberals that makes you want to surrender in the face of our enemies? You never want to confront anyone.

Have you ever heard of World War II?

Have you ever considered the possibility that there are some who do not wish to allow fear to get the better of us? Have you ever considered the possibility that some of us profit mightily from that same fear and thus, have an agenda?

Why do you live in this ridiculous alternative reality where everything is all or nothing? Sorry but, that is seriously stupid. It is not, and never will be, a case of confront everything or, confront nothing. That is rhetoric. It makes for good political debate but, is hardly thoughtful, practical, or realistic. Your first clue should be, Republicans aren't always right and, Democrats aren't always wrong. Conservative aren't always right and, liberals aren't always wrong. To believe either, or the opposite of either is foolish.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

Over the course of history, how many times have we pushed countries away from us and, into relationships with our real enemies?

Is there any reason to continue to push Cuba away from us?

[AUUSN 823]

Over the course of history, how many times have we pushed countries away from us and, into relationships with our real enemies?

Is there any reason to continue to push Cuba away from us?

Iran, then Iraq...

[AUUSN 823]

Re-Engagement with Cuba: The Strategic Calculus

Yesterday’s decision by President Obama to re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba will be highly controversial domestically, but popular internationally. The normalization of ties between these two foes has potential to advance the strategic interests of the United States by helping it to improve its relationships with the states of Latin America and the Caribbean, and more effectively manage regional security challenges.

Domestic Challenges to a New Relationship with Cuba

The restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba is likely to be only the opening salvo in a protracted series of political battles that will further deepen the partisan divide in Washington. Indeed, it is likely no coincidence that the policy change was only announced after passage of the “cromnibus” that will continue funding for the federal government.

While the Obama administration has the power to re-establish diplomatic relations, and perhaps even to remove Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, the confirmation by the Republican-dominated Senate of whoever the administration names as the U.S. ambassador to Cuba will likely become a high-visibility national debate over the administration’s change in course. Moreover, ending the U.S. embargo of Cuba will require Congressional action, which is likely to prompt a major partisan political conflict.

Re-Shaping Latin American Geopolitics

Still, these initial steps by President Obama are monumental and will re-shape the geopolitics of Latin America. Recognizing Cuba opens the door for the eventual re-incorporation of the country into the Organization of American States (OAS) and, in the process, revitalizing the organization as the premier multilateral body in the region. Such a result would have the further strategic benefit of undercutting the arguments of the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) regimes for building up alternative organizations that exclude the United States, such as the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) or the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC)

In the short term, U.S. recognition of Cuba averts a potential disaster at next April’s OAS Summit of the Americas in Panama City. The Panamanian government, which will host the summit, invited Cuba to attend, although the OAS has excluded Cuba. The summit thus threatened to become a platform for Cuba to malign the United States and the OAS at the latter’s own most important gathering. With U.S. recognition of Cuba, however, the summit could instead become a forum for the United States to showcase the respectful and inclusive new partnership it is pursuing with the region.

Beyond the summit, if the Cuba-U.S. relationship evolves from the re-establishment of diplomatic relations to the lifting of sanctions and Cuba’s re-integration with the business and trading infrastructure of the region, the nation stands to become a dominant economic player in the Caribbean basin – a fact which doubtlessly make businessmen in neighboring states such as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Trinidad and Tobago both excited and nervous at the same time.

Some of the biggest potential winners from such a reintegration, beyond the Cubans themselves, are Brazilian businesses, which have invested heavily in Cuba’s Mariel port and Free Trade Zone. Under the right circumstances, Mariel could become one of the most important new hub ports in the Caribbean. The position of Mariel will be furthered by the completion of the project for widening the Panama Canal, sometime between 2016 and 2018. The expansion of the canal will permit an increased volume of ships through the region, including container and other ships of a larger size, which will be in the market for nearby ports and facilities to consolidate and transform cargo, such as Mariel.

Enlisting Cuba to Better Manage Regional Security Challenges

Conservatives have long argued that lifting sanctions on Cuba will not bring political reform there. While this may be true, a Cuba with a greater economic stake in the region may bring unexpected benefits, such as helping the United States manage regional security challenges.

Through diplomatic recognition and the probable lifting of sanctions at some point in the future, the United States provides the dying Cuban leadership with a path to declare victory and preserve the legacy of the revolution. The Castros understand that the economy of Venezuela, Cuba’s principal patron in the post-Cold war era, is crumbling. While China and Russia provide the Cuban government with some support, the overriding strategic imperative for the Cuban leadership is to make the country self-sustaining without jeopardizing the position of the Communist Party, or the nation’s policy orientation.

Within this context, Cuba’s expanding participation in the economy of the region may persuade it to collaborate more with other states of the region in areas such as combatting drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and money laundering. Moreover, Cuba may seek to avoid provocative actions in dealing with extra-regional partners which directly threaten U.S. national security. Examples include permitting Russia to reopen the Cold War-era signals intelligence collection facility near the Cuban town of Lourdes, allowing Russian submarines and long-range aircraft to re-supply at Cuban bases, or collaborating with Iran in the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.

The change in diplomatic relations toward Cuba and the elimination of sanctions may even create opportunities for improved relations with other regimes with whom the United States has long had difficult relations, such as Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador.

Policy Recommendations

The announcement that the United States and Cuba would re-establish relations has produced a flurry of congratulatory statements from across the globe. Yet the goodwill that the announcement has generated is likely to dissipate quickly. While the change in diplomatic posture toward Cuba creates a significant opportunity, realizing its benefits will require intelligent and sustained follow-through. As the administration moves forward, the following are some issues that it should be thinking about:

First, the U.S. needs a strategic concept, replete with the consideration of alternative scenarios, regarding precisely how it will leverage Cuba’s interest in escaping from the “sinking ship” of its Venezuelan patron and extra-hemispheric friends, to realize the benefits of becoming a major regional trade hub and tourism destination. As part of its approach, the Administration must think through the types of strategic benefits that Cuba can help it to achieve, such as not permitting Russian military facilities on its soil or cooperating more on regional law enforcement actions. The administration should also think about the “carrots and sticks” that it will hold out to Cuba to convince it to cooperate. Doing so includes considering to what degree the administration will use its leverage to press Cuba on domestic political reform, versus potential Cuban help with strategic issues in Latin America, if both forms of cooperation are not possible.

Second, the United States. must have an engagement strategy for working with Cuba’s neighbors in the Caribbean basin in the context of the monumental shift in the economic, political, and other dynamics of the region that may be occasioned by the present policy change and related policy changes which may follow. As noted before, if Cuba becomes a major trading partner and logistics hub, the businessmen of the surrounding islands will both find significant opportunity and experience major new competition. Similarly, Cuba’s diplomatic re-integration into the region will produce new forms of engagement with the Dominican Republic and Cuba’s Spanish-speaking Central American neighbors, including the FMLN government in El Salvador. At the same time, the shift will also be felt in Belize and the English-speaking members of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

If Cuba’s commerce with the region significantly expands, it may also expand opportunities for transnational criminal organizations to use Cuba to move people, drugs, contraband merchandise, and money through the region. The United States should seek to work with Caribbean law enforcement to identify, and proactively combat, such new patterns in organized crime.

Third, the United States must carefully plan and manage strategic communication regarding its change in policy on Cuba so that extra-hemispheric actors such as Russia and China perceive the move as a pragmatic advance, rather than a retreat borne from weakness. The opportunity for miscalculations and future conflict will increase if Russia sees the U.S. action as a lack of resolve by the Obama administration, and thus feels free to act more aggressively in its diplomatic and military activities in the region. Similarly, the United States. should be sensitive to the possibility that China’s views this policy change as building the business case for, and signaling the political acceptability of, overt Chinese government leadership of or financing for the Nicaragua Canal project.

Fourth, the United States needs a strategy for revitalizing the Organization of American States as the premier multi-lateral organization in the Americas. A significant initiative at, and strategic communication plan for, the April 2015 Summit of the Americas in Panama City is probably a good place to start.

The conditions for Cuba’s re-incorporation into the Organization of American States are not yet present, but such a return is an inherent part of the path that the Obama administration is heading down. When the appropriate time comes, the Cuba’s re-incorporation into the OAS should be seen as a strategic opportunity to re-vitalize the organization that legitimately incorporates the perspective of all residents of the Americas, including Cuba, Canada, and the United States, rather than the more divisive, partially representative organizations that have been created in recent years, such as UNASUR and CELAC.

Finally, the United States should capitalize on the symbolism of its renewed diplomatic ties with Cuba, to effectively re-launch its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean.

In this new relationship, the United States should not shy away from proclaiming the values for which it stands, including participatory democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Yet the U.S. policy change on Cuba also allows the Obama administration to argue that it “means it” when it says that it will advocate, yet not impose, those values upon its neighbors – even those nations whose political regime and policies the United States may find morally repugnant.

Two small, but enormously useful gestures would help to emphasize the new relationship that the United States seeks with the region: (1) a multi-nation tour of the region by President Obama that does not once mention drugs or immigration, and (2) a major presidential visit to another part of the world in which President Obama dedicates a significant portion of a speech to the challenges of Latin America and the Caribbean, and the importance of Latin America and the Caribbean to the United States.

Through its decision to re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba, the administration has created an important opportunity for the United States to renew and re-invigorate its relationship with the region on the basis of respectful partnership. Doing so is critical to U.S. security. Latin America and the Caribbean is arguably the region to which the United States is most intimately bound, in terms of ties of geography, commerce and family.

What is critical now is what the administration does next.

Evan Ellis is Research Professor of Latin American Studies with the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. The views expressed in this work are solely his own and do not necessarily represent his institution or the U.S. Government. http://warontherocks...tegic-calculus/

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

We can't push Cuba away. They haven't been with us since the Castro revolution and their attitude isn't going to change now except to sucker us into giving them money after Venezuela has become bankrupt and can't help them.

[cooltigger21 0]

We can't push Cuba away. They haven't been with us since the Castro revolution and their attitude isn't going to change now except to sucker us into giving them money after Venezuela has become bankrupt and can't help them.

It's amazing how they are able to get people to bail them out time after time. After the Soviet Union failed, the EU stepped in. After that Venezuela and now here we go giving them a lifeline. Just because the Castro regime may fall doesn't necessarily mean we'll get a free, prosperous and democratic Cuba all of a sudden.

[TitanTiger 20,481]

Titan....huge difference between Cuba and China for example. China is a world power, Cuba is a nit. China has great influence on the world economy, Cuba does not. China has nukes, Cuba does not. I could go on but that's enough. The only thing that will change with Obama's policy is the Castros get more money and recognition. They arise from the dead.

China wasn't a world power when we started opening up diplomatic relations with them. And we also have diplomatic relations with communist Vietnam. They're a 'nit' as you call them too. Vietnam doesn't have great influence on the world economy (neither did China back when Nixon reached out to them), Vietnam doesn't have nukes.

Hardly anything you're saying makes a coherent argument against opening things up with Cuba. The last 50 years haven't accomplished much of anything.

[cooltigger21 0]

Titan....huge difference between Cuba and China for example. China is a world power, Cuba is a nit. China has great influence on the world economy, Cuba does not. China has nukes, Cuba does not. I could go on but that's enough. The only thing that will change with Obama's policy is the Castros get more money and recognition. They arise from the dead.

China wasn't a world power when we started opening up diplomatic relations with them. And we also have diplomatic relations with communist Vietnam. They're a 'nit' as you call them too. Vietnam doesn't have great influence on the world economy (neither did China back when Nixon reached out to them), Vietnam doesn't have nukes.

Hardly anything you're saying makes a coherent argument against opening things up with Cuba. The last 50 years haven't accomplished much of anything.

It took 70 years for the Soviet Union to fall. Cuba had the Soviet Union propping them up for 30 years. Without the EU and Venezuela to prop them up for the last 20 they would have long since fallen. Now their last lifeline is going away and boom here comes the good ole USA to the rescue. We just agreed to prop up a communist dictator right in our own backyard.

[TitanTiger 20,481]

And we didn't treat the Soviet Union as an enemy for the first 30 years of that. And we never had a full-on embargo against them even during the Cold War. And Cuba "falling" is no guarantee that what replaces them will be democracy. Chaos is chaos and can go any direction. How'd you like a terrorist state to arise out of the chaos right in our backyard for instance? Did the power vacuum in Iraq and Afghanistan teach us nothing?

Still no reason why this policy toward Cuba made any sense in light of how we treat other countries like Vietnam.

[homersapien 11,371]

We can't push Cuba away. They haven't been with us since the Castro revolution and their attitude isn't going to change now except to sucker us into giving them money after Venezuela has become bankrupt and can't help them.

It's amazing how they are able to get people to bail them out time after time. After the Soviet Union failed, the EU stepped in. After that Venezuela and now here we go giving them a lifeline. Just because the Castro regime may fall doesn't necessarily mean we'll get a free, prosperous and democratic Cuba all of a sudden.

Canceling an embargo is "giving them a lifeline"?

Regardless, I don't see how maintaining a unilateral embargo is going to suddenly become effective after 50 years.

[cooltigger21 0]

We can't push Cuba away. They haven't been with us since the Castro revolution and their attitude isn't going to change now except to sucker us into giving them money after Venezuela has become bankrupt and can't help them.

It's amazing how they are able to get people to bail them out time after time. After the Soviet Union failed, the EU stepped in. After that Venezuela and now here we go giving them a lifeline. Just because the Castro regime may fall doesn't necessarily mean we'll get a free, prosperous and democratic Cuba all of a sudden.

Canceling an embargo is "giving them a lifeline"? :rolleyes:/>

Regardless, I don't see how maintaining a unilateral embargo is going to suddenly become effective after 50 years.

the embargo itself cannot be undone without Congress approval. There is no way in hell that will happen. Yes it is giving them a lifeline. We infuse them with our capital and they have the mans to DAT in blower. If you think for one second this will hasten the end of Castro you are sadly mistaken.

[cooltigger21 0]

And we didn't treat the Soviet Union as an enemy for the first 30 years of that. And we never had a full-on embargo against them even during the Cold War. And Cuba "falling" is no guarantee that what replaces them will be democracy. Chaos is chaos and can go any direction. How'd you like a terrorist state to arise out of the chaos right in our backyard for instance? Did the power vacuum in Iraq and Afghanistan teach us nothing?

Still no reason why this policy toward Cuba made any sense in light of how we treat other countries like Vietnam.

Vietnam isn't in our backyard. We didn't trade with the USSR like we did with friends. We sold them grain and a few other things. We had the chance to stop them before they got rolling but we missed it. Frankly the money China makes off of us allows them to build up their military and be a bigger threat than they were.

[homersapien 11,371]

We can't push Cuba away. They haven't been with us since the Castro revolution and their attitude isn't going to change now except to sucker us into giving them money after Venezuela has become bankrupt and can't help them.

It's amazing how they are able to get people to bail them out time after time. After the Soviet Union failed, the EU stepped in. After that Venezuela and now here we go giving them a lifeline. Just because the Castro regime may fall doesn't necessarily mean we'll get a free, prosperous and democratic Cuba all of a sudden.

Canceling an embargo is "giving them a lifeline"? :rolleyes:/>

Regardless, I don't see how maintaining a unilateral embargo is going to suddenly become effective after 50 years.

the embargo itself cannot be undone without Congress approval. There is no way in hell that will happen. Yes it is giving them a lifeline. We infuse them with our capital and they have the mans to DAT in blower. If you think for one second this will hasten the end of Castro you are sadly mistaken.

Well I understand the first part of this sentence, but you lost me after "and".

By "infusing them with our capital" can I assume you are referring to allowing our private entrepreneurs to invest their money for profit?

So do you reckon this will hasten the growth of capitalistic businesses by Cubans or further depress them from doing so?

[TitanTiger 20,481]

Vietnam isn't in our backyard.

Doesn't matter. We were at war with them for umpteen years. Never had such a protracted conflict with Cuba.

We didn't trade with the USSR like we did with friends.

Yet we did trade. And we talked. And they had an embassy here and vice versa. We can't even so much as bring in a cigar from Cuba without breaking the law. It's a stupid, nonsensical policy that hasn't worked.

We sold them grain and a few other things. We had the chance to stop them before they got rolling but we missed it. Frankly the money China makes off of us allows them to build up their military and be a bigger threat than they were.

So run for office on a platform of treating China like Cuba. Let me know when the CEOs of every major company stop laughing.

You're grasping at straws here.

[cooltigger21 0]

Hey while we're at it let's normalize relations with North Korea and Iran too. Just cozy up to all the despots of the world. That's real progress.

[TitanTiger 20,481]

Hey, while we're at it, let's embargo and refuse diplomatic relations with China, Vietnam and Laos! Hell, let's just go all the way and refuse to speak or trade with anyone that doesn't like us, has human rights violations or has ever been cozy with one of our enemies. I'm sure that will make them come around.

[homersapien 11,371]

Hey while we're at it let's normalize relations with North Korea and Iran too. Just cozy up to all the despots of the world. That's real progress.

False equivalency.

[homersapien 11,371]

Hey, while we're at it, let's embargo and refuse diplomatic relations with China, Vietnam and Laos! Hell, let's just go all the way and refuse to speak or trade with anyone that doesn't like us, has human rights violations or has ever been cozy with one of our enemies. I'm sure that will make them come around.

China, Vietnam and Laos would be only a modest start if those are the criteria.

[TexasTiger 12,851]

Hey while we're at it let's normalize relations with North Korea and Iran too. Just cozy up to all the despots of the world. That's real progress.

False equivalency.

One of his specialties.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Some people say our policies with Cuba for the last 50 years has been a failure. How is that? What were our objectives and what has failed?

[cooltigger21 0]

Hey while we're at it let's normalize relations with North Korea and Iran too. Just cozy up to all the despots of the world. That's real progress.

False equivalency.

One of his specialties.

this coming from a person that takes the side of our enemies at every turn. What is that makes you do that? Liberals here loved Castro and praised the wonderful health care system. All that extra money will go straight into Castro's pocket. The ordinary Cuban will be no better off. We could have had some leverage but now it's gone in one fell swoop.

[AU-HANDLEY-TIGER 205]

Some people say our policies with Cuba for the last 50 years has been a failure. How is that? What were our objectives and what has failed?

Wow , a great question. I'm sure the usual suspects haven't researched the topic, the obama can do no wrong group just think its great and the obama is the anti-christ group think its terrible. I think you are man that reads the facts and makes his own decisions , a vanishing species.